Review of the day

It was a bit of a dull day today – for a Saturday, anyhow…

That said, we managed to bag a winner – and a small profit on the day. So I’m not complaining about it.

In truth, I think we need more days like today: days when we just edge forward by a point or two.

If some of the near misses from earlier in the month had gone our way and we’d had a few more days when we edged forward , then we’d be sitting on a nice profit for the month by now (and my stress levels wouldn’t have got quite so high !!)

Still, I guess that is water under the bridge….

On to today then, when in the very first race at Newbury, Arbeo set out to make all under Sam Thomas – and succeeded !

If only it was always that simple !
Our other runner in the race, Simply Ben, made a few early mistakes and could never get competitive. He probably needs a greater test of stamina…

Another one who needs a greater test of stamina, is Safran De Cotte.

He was backed into favouritism at Doncaster, but started struggling to go with the leaders, as soon as the pace quickened.

He was beaten entering the home straight, but plugged on to finish a never nearer fourth.

I suspect that some of the minor grand nationals will be on his agenda, before very long…

The final tip of the day, was Midnight Haze. However he didn’t run much of a race either.

He prefers to boss races – or at least race prominently – but today, he didn’t have the pace to lie up.

He was struggling with almost a circuit to run and was eventually pulled up.

He is not one that I would be interested in, in the immediate future at least…

Aside from those 3, there wasn’t a lot to report on the day:

Hurricane Fly won in a canter at Leopardstown; and Tarquin Du Seuil took the feature Challow hurdle at Newbury.

I guess it’s the price we pay for all the excitement over the Christmas period – but things aren’t going to get any more exciting tomorrow, where the only place they might be racing, is Taunton (if it survives a morning inspection).

Assuming that meeting does go ahead, then it is likely to provide my last tips for a week or so…

I’m going away on Monday and whilst I will be back on Tuesday, I’m going away again on Thursday !

Consequently, I will be taking approximately a week off tipping…

I know you’ll all miss me ( ;) ) – but I’ll be back again before you know it - probably with tips for Tuesday 8^th January.

I’ll be in touch via email over the next day or so, to confirm exact arrangements – but I just thought I would give those of you who read the blog, a little bit of advanced warning…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 29th

It’s the final day of the 2 Christmas festival meetings in Ireland at Leopardstown and Limerick – whilst in the UK, they race at Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso…

Today’s Leopardstown card is the weakest of the week. The grade 1 hurdle looks like a formality for Hurricane Fly – whilst the supporting races hardly get the pulse racing…

Still, I can’t complain too much – the previous 3 days racing have been outstanding…

There is nothing much doing at Limerick or Kelso either, so I have turned to Newbury and Doncaster for today’s tips…

Newbury 12:30

I spent quite a lot of time turning round this race last night – and got it down to 2 runners: Arbeo and Simply Ben…

Simply Ben probably has the better form of the 2. If you look back through his record (both over fences and over hurdles) he has run against some serious animals.

His last time out third, behind Highland Lodge and Our Father in a grade 2 chase at Cheltenham is a case in point.

True he was beaten a long way that day, but he also finished in a fair way in front of a couple of horses rated in the 130s. Running today off a mark of 117, he looks potentially well handicapped on the basis of that run…

The danger is reading the result of a 5 runner race too literally. If the 2 horses he beat under-performed, then the form is worthless.

That said, his earlier form backs up the suggestion that, at very least, he is not badly handicapped – and I suspect he has scope for improvement…

However ,Arbeo could potentially be very well handicapped.

He gets to run off a mark of just 104 – and that looks generous based on his run at Plumpton.

He fell 4 out in that contest, but was still going well and it is easy to think that he would have run rivals rated significantly higher, very close.

His subsequent run at Fakenham doesn’t contradict that either. Ok, he was beaten by a rival rated 110 – but he had a couple of 110 rated runners behind.

My suspicion is that both he and the winner, ran closer to a rating of 120 that day…

If that is the case, he has the best part of a stone in hand of his current handicap mark and that will make his very hard to beat today…

The other thing that tips me in favour of Arbeo today, is that he has a relatively light weight to carry.

As we know, the way the ground is currently riding at most tracks, stamina is at an absolute premium and the less weight a horse has to carry, the better…

A split stake bet then – with the balance tipped in favour of Arbeo seemed the most sensible way forward…

0.5pt win Arbeo 13/2

0.25pt win Simply Ben 15/2

Newbury 2:10

I was initially attracted to Mark the Book in this race…

Followers from last season will recall that he was a wining early bird tip at Chepstow and off a mark just 3lb higher today – on ground he will love – he had to be of some interest…

However, he is horse who has been beset with physical problem and watching the way he capitulated when passed last time out, it would be very difficult to support him today…

That said, I still felt that the betting for this race had a lob-sided look to it, with the top 3 in the market put in shorter than I think is warranted…

The question was what to take them on with – and the answe appeared in the form of Midnight Haze…

Although his form figures don’t look too inspiring, Midnight Haze’s last 4 runs have not been on conventional courses.

He has raced twice over the Aintree fences (including in the Grand National) and twice over the Cheltenham cross country course.

In fairness, he’s generally not performed too badly – though you are obviously looking at very big fields and high attrition rates in those types of contests, so his form figures don’t really provide a fair representation.

The last time Midnight Haze ran at a conventional course, he won. Not only that, he won very easily – and off a mark only 2lb lower than he gets to race off today.

What’s more, he will handle today’s’ heavy ground, will stay the trip - and shouldn’t have an issue lugging his big weight (he has successfully carried similar weight in the past).

So, all in all, his case is a fair bit stronger than it initially appears…

One concern I do have, is that his best form seems to be at Ludlow, which is a sharp right handed track. Today he is running at Newbury, which is a big left handed track…

That said, he has shown himself adaptable enough to jump round Aintree so I can’t see why it should be a significant issue.

If that is the case, then I see no reason why Midnight Haze won’t run a very big race today – and he certainly looks significantly over-priced to me…

0.5pt win Midnight Haze 25/1

Doncaster 2:55

This looks a very competitive race – but I’m hoping that Safran De Cotte may prove different class to today’s opposition…

He was a fair novice hurdler, but he really made his mark in a strong handicap hurdle at Haydock last December.

That race was run on desperate ground and Safran De Cotte simply took apart a field of top class handicappers, including the likes of Across the Bay, Attaglance, Reindeer Dippin, Son of Flicka, Houblon Des Obeaux – and others. It was a really impressive performance – and the key to it seemed to be the ground, which Safran De Cotte relished…

He was sent off favourite for his final 3 runs of last season - on the back of that win – but he didn’t manage to repeat the performance…

This season, his attentions were switched to fences and he won a decent novice chase on his seasonal debut beating the subsequently successful Godsmejudge.

His second (and most recent) outing was at Haydock, where he finished a distant third behind a couple of high-class rivals.

However, he lost nothing in that defeat and the suggestion is that, over fences, he is at least going to be able to match his performances over hurdles…

That being the case, he should go very close today. He will be cherry ripe; competing in ideal conditions – and off a mark hat should be well within his capabilities.

Provided his jumping holds up, I can see no reason why he shouldn’t go very close.

Plenty of his rivals can be given a chance - and if he doesn’t perform, I wouldn’t have a strong view on who will come out on top.

However, if he does perform, I think all of his rivals will have to go some to beat him.

0.5pt win Safran de Cotte 15/2

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead – with a little slice of luck along the way ;)

TVB.

Review of the day

No joy today with the 3 tips: though two of them ran very well in defeat…

First up was Shadows Lengthen.

Things weren’t looking too good when he made a shocking mistake at the third fence. However, his rider managed to recover he situation well and he travelled nicely through the race.

That said, the first two seemed to have got away form him on the run to the final fence. However, with them weakening on the run in, he produced a sustained finish and ultimately only lost out by 2 short heads in the 3 way photo.

Despite that, he won’t go down as an ‘unlucky’ loser, as he only touched 2.2 IR !!

Next it was Cootamundra, who ran with real credit in the novice chase at Leopardstown.

He was ridden precisely as I expected: settled at the back, jumping like a cat; and slowly creeping into the race.

I must admit that as he leapt the third last fence, I had real hope that he was going to deliver.

However, he seemed to run into a few traffic issues that disturbed his rhythm – and off the final bend it soon became clear that he was playing for third place at best.
Alas, his stamina emptied up the home straight and he eventually finished an honourable fifth.

Based on this run, he needs to be dropped back in trip by half a mile – and if he is, it will take a very good one to beat him.

The sole disappointing run of the day came from Red Rouble.

I really fancied him: in part because he has been in such good form; but also because I felt the favourite would be vulnerable at the finish…

Unfortunately despite being really well backed, Red Rouble ran no sort of a race and was pulled up, What made it particularly disappointing, was that I was right in my assessment of Ballywatt.

He cruised up along side Tafikia – but found very little and was easily shrugged aside.

He certainly isn’t one to follow – though neither is Red Rouble based on today’s performance…

Aside from the tips, I really must mention what is probably the most exciting race I’ve seen all season.

The Lexus chase threatened to be a thriller – and it didn’t disappoint !

Flemenstar cruised through the race, making high class chasers look like selling platers – but having taken up the running on the approach to the final fence, he emptied.

That looked to have let in First Lieutenant, but he has only a little more stamina that Felmenstar, and with the two of them going up and down on the spot, it was left to  Tidal Bay to come through for a most improbable victory.

Hot on his heals was Sir Des Champs - and if his fencing had been just a little better, it is hard to think that he wouldn’t have been victorious.
Not that I want to take anything away from the winner. It was a magnificent performance from a horse who will be 12 in a few days time. It just makes you wonder what he night have achieved if he had been with Paul Nicholls throughout his career.

Finally, Voler La Vedette again ran disappointingly in the Christmas hurdle and I wonder how many more times we will see her on a racecourse.

She owes nobody anything and I for one would fully understand if her connections decided that now was a good time to pull stumps with her.

The race was won by Monksland who showed a really good attitude to get the better of Zaidpour, after the whole field had struggled once again to reel in the front running Whatuthink.
The winner will doubtless have his followers for the World Hurdle – though I am unlikely to be amongst them…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 28th

Remarkably, all 4 NH meetings have survived the weather and we race today at Leicester and Catterick in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Once again, the meeting at Leopardstown stands head and shoulders above the rest in terms of quality, with the feature Lexus chase, arguably the race of the season so far.

Unfortunately, as I mentioned yesterday, I’m struggling to find the time to produce my normal comprehensive write-up, so today’s offering is a bit shorter than normal – hopefully it still contains all the important bits – starting with the rationale for today’s 3 tips:

Leicester 2:40

This doesn’t look the strongest of races – and I’m a little surprised that Red Rouble can be backed at the price he can.

Certainly, his recent form is very good: a win over Nom De Guerre at this course and a second to Plein Pouvoir at the Cheltenham December meeting.

He has only been raised 5lb for those 2 runs, which still makes him look well handicapped. Furthermore as a young horse, who seems to be finding his feet, there is clearly scope for further improvement…

Most of his rivals today, look out of form or not good enough. The obvious exception being the favourite, Ballywatt.

However the way he seemed disinclined to pass a rival he was running all over, last time out, marked him down as one to be wary of.

0.5pt win Red Rouble 6/1

Catterick 2:20

This looks quite an open race and I think it is worth taking a chance that Shadows Lengthen can make a wining debut over fences.

He was at least the equal of all of his rivals over hurdles and he arrives today on the back of a very promising run over hurdles at Leicester.

I marked him down that day as one to be interested in next time out – and whilst I expected that to be over hurdles, I’m happy enough to take the risk on him over fences.

He has run 3 times at Catterick in the past and recorded a first, a second and a third – so he clearly likes the place.

It is difficult to pick out any of his opponents as a specific danger. If forced to nominate one, I would go for Jackies Solitaire, who could prove troublesome with her very light weight.

0.5pt win Shadows Lengthen 12/1

Leopardstown 2:25

This is a high class and hugely competitive race – and Cootamundra has an awful lot to make up on official ratings to get involved. But I think he is capable of surprising one or two…

He is already 9 years old and exposed as of decent – but not outstanding - ability, over hurdles, but he has looked as if he might be able to take his chasing career to a much higher level.

He was in the process of running a mighty race when falling behind Twilight at Galway and he then ran really well behind the top class Oscars Well at Navan.

Both of those races were over 2 miles –and Cootamunda is not a 2 miler…

He will be much better suited by today’s test and I expect Robbie Moran to hold him up out the back and then pick off his rivals one by one.

He’ll need a bit of luck in-running – but if he gets it, this one could be exciting !!

0.5pt EW Cootamundra 33/1

The day’s feature will provide the acid test for Flemenstar. If he wins, I’ll take him seriously for the Gold Cup – but I expect Sir Des Champs to prove his superior over this test.
I can also envisage a really big run from Hidden Cyclone – whilst if the young guns don’t fire, Tidal Bay has shown that he still retains sufficient ability to take advantage.

A truly fascinating contest !

Earlier on the card, I would love to see Voler La Vedette take her revenge on Zaidpour.

I’m a huge fan of the mare – and have little doubt that at her peak, she is the better of the two animals. Though whether she is currently at her peak, is a different matter.

Fingers crossed she re-finds her form and shows what she is capable of.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

I’m sure that a lot of you would have felt that I was irritated yesterday primarily because Captain Chris got nailed in the shadows of the post.

Clearly, I was never going to be happy about that (!) – but these things happen…

There is absolutely nothing I can do about that kind of ‘luck’. I can find horses that run races at big prices – but I can’t make them win.

What really irritated me yesterday, was that I failed to tip Jacksonslady, when I thought it the most likely winner of the 2 mile chase (and a gift at 12/1 !).

I didn’t put it up simply because it was running in the same race as Rubert and I would never have forgiven myself if I’d not tipped Rubert and it had won.

Of course, what I should have done, was tip them both. However, as I’ve said before, when you are struggling to get a run of profits going, you tend to act more cautiously than you should and look to ‘save’ points wherever possible.

So as a consequence, I only tipped Rubert in the race – and we lost out on a 12/1 winner…

Roll on 24 hours and I was faced with almost exactly the same situation.

My alerts told me to tip Kaffie – and I had no issue with that. However, my form reading told me that Tweedledrum had just as good a chance and was more than twice the price.

What should I do ?

Clearly, I wasn’t going to be happy if Kaffie won and I’d not tipped it – but I could say the same for Tweedledrum.

Hence a split bet across the two of them and an 18/1 winner bagged.

They really are fine lines !

More generally, it is my intention to tip a few more horses, in an attempt to minimise that aspect of ‘luck’. Like I say there is nothing I can do about horses that almost win but don’t quite – however, I can takes some steps to minimise the impact of border-line calls.

The days other 2 tips didn’t fare quite so well – though both finished placed and there is reason for thinking that each of them could have done even better, if events had unfolded differently…

In the 2 mile novice hurdle, Bright New Dawn pulled like crazy under restraint in the early stages of the race and it says much for his ability that he was still in with a chance of victory rounding the home turn.

Ultimately, his early exertions took their toll and he could only finish third behind the mightily impressive winner, Jezki.

Whether Bright New Dawn would ever have beaten Jezki is a debatable point. However it would be difficult to argue that he would have finished much closer if either he had settled early in the race- or if Davy Russell had just let him have his head.

Whatever, I expect he will make up for today’s defeat next time – when I would also expect him to be allowed to race from the front…

In the following race, Dicoteca (and the rest of the field) made the mistake of letting the early leader get too far in front and they just couldn’t reel him back in.

Discotecas jumping also left quite a lot to be desired, so again, the fact he finished so close, was testament to his ability.

He is another whom I would fully expect to go one better next time out…

Earlier on the Leopardstown card, Sizing Europe managed to hold off the renewed Challenge of Rubi Light – but only just…

As I said this morning, today’s conditions were never going to be ideal for Sizing so it was to his credit that he managed to come out on top.

In the Paddy Power chase, I latched on to the wrong plot horse and it was AP and Colbert Station who were backed into favouritism and came home in front.

Connections will be pleased to have got this victory out of him and I suspect that anything else he manages to achieve will be a bonus.

Over at Kempton, Simonsig was mightily impressive in the novice chase. He really does look like the next Sprinter Sacre !

Menorah ran out a game winner of the Peterborough chase. When thing go his way, he is a horse of significant ability – and things went his way today.

Finally, Sanctuaire put up a tremendous performance to win the Desert Orchid chase.

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who thought him beaten when Wishful Thinking and Kumbeshwar went passed. However Ruby clearly had saved quite a bit and he responded very well to forge clear between the final 2 fences.

In a normal year, he would have a live chance in the Queen Mother champion chase – but in a year when Sprinter Sacre is around, he is likely to battling for second place at best.

Finally, I really struggled to do the daily write-up today…

As it is the Christmas holiday, my responsibilities (amongst other things !) including looking after a four year old and a seven year old.

Trying to pull together the words to explain the chances of the various tips, with them buzzing around me, was nearly impossible…

I’ve no issue with the form study (which I do the day before) or the issuing of the tips (which takes 2 minutes): but the daily write-up might be a little shorter than normal tomorrow, as my head is likely to explode if I try to repeat today’s juggling act !

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 27th

The Welsh National meeting at Chepstow may have fallen foul to the weather, but 4 other meetings have managed to survive: Kempton and Wetherby in the UK; plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Kempton provides the best of the domestic action but it is eclipsed by an outstanding card at Leopardstown.

I’ve tipped in 3 races today: 1 at Kempton and 2 at Leopardstown. Let’s hope we get the rub of the green for at least one of them !

So, the rationale for today’s tips, starting at Leopardstown…

2:00

I’ll be surprised if there is a better novice hurdle run this side of the Cheltenham festival – this is an absolute cracker !

I can understand Jezki being installed favourite – but there is no way he should be a 6/5 shot according to my viewing of the race…

His price is due almost entirely to his last time out victory when he beat the hugely promising Champagne Fever and Minsk, in the grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse.

Whilst ultimately he won that race well, he did look in trouble at various points during it – and although the form appears really strong, it hasn’t been properly franked and so should be treated with a certain amount of caution…

On his hurdling debut, Jezki just managed to get the better of one of today’s other runners, Ally Cascade.

However the wining margin was just three quarters of a length, so it is a little difficult to understand the disparity in odds between the 2 horses (Ally Cascade is a 16/1 shot)…

Part of the reason why Ally Cascade had been dismissed in the betting is because he is not the Gigginstown number 1 for this race (according to jockey bookings, anyhow).

That honour goes to Bright New Dawn – and that is part of the reason why he is the tip.

The other part is down to the form book…

On his seasonal debut, Bright New Dawn beat Ned Buntline at Fairyhouse. Last time out, Ally Cascade, beat Urano at Thurles. Yesterday, in the opener at Leopardstown, Ned Buntline beat Urano. Following that line of form, Bright New Dawn comes out about 5 lengths superior to Ally Cascade.

As Ally Cascade is less than a length the inferior of Jezki, Bright New Dawn aught to be 4 lengths his superior ;)

Of course, it is highly unlikely to pan out exactly like that - but it does show that Bright New Dawn represents significant value in the race at 11/1 against the 6/5 of Jezki…

Of course this isn’t just a 3 horse race: Waheeb and Sizing Rio are also both serious players – whilst I have a sneaking suspicion that Wingtips will run a very big race, despite his 25/1 price.

That said, Bright New Dawn looks a horse of enormous potential and also appears to be a very straightforward ride.

He led all the way at Fairyhouse and if Davy jumps him to the front here, I suspect the others are going to have to go some to get past him.

0.5pt win Bright New Dawn 11/1

2:35

This doesn’t look the most competitive handicap hurdle ever run and Discoteca looks just about the most interesting horse in the race…

He is only a 4 year old but has already managed to win 4 of his 8 hurdle races, showing gradual progression in the process.

He actually disappointed on his latest race over hurdles, when he was sent off a short priced favourite at the Galway festival but could only finish fourth.

In fairness to him, he had been on the go for a long time when he ran in the race and he maybe was just in need of a break.

He was given the best part of 6 months off after that run and only reappeared a fortnight before Christmas on the AW at Dundalk.

He didn’t feature that evening, which was maybe not surprising given his absence – but what seemed very significant was that Davy Russell made the effort to ride him in that contest.

Bearing in mind it was a Wednesday evening in the middle of December and that Davy hadn’t ridden on the flat for 2 years, it seemed an interesting move, to say the least…

Presumably the idea was to blow away the cobwebs – but also to enable Davy to re-familiarise himself with the horse, in preparation for his return to hurdles…

There is a question mark over the suitability of today’s ground for Discoteca – but he has won on deep ground in the past, so I’m quite hopeful he will cope with it.

In terms of his rivals, then Tennis Cap looks by far the most interesting.

He was very disappointing last season, but comfortably won his maiden on his seasonal debut this year.

He has been given a handicap mark of just 116, which could prove to be very lenient.

The only issue with him is his price, which is just 7/2…

At a much bigger price, I could see To the Sky running a fair race – but hopefully he won’t be good enough to beat Discoteca.

0.75pt win Discoteca 11/1

Earlier on the Leopardstown card, Sizing Europe runs in the Paddy Power Dial-a-bet chase.

On form he should win, but I’m not sure I would want to take 1/2 on ground that he is unlikely to relish.

Rubi Light will relish the conditions and it could prove interesting if he is given an aggressive ride (which is likely to be the case).

The other one worthy of a mention is Big Zeb and it would not be the biggest surprise in the world if the old warrior were to wind back the clock and put in a very big run on ground he will love.

At 14/1, he could reward a small interest…

The Paddy Power chase run at 3:10 is one of the most valuable handicap chases run all season.

Consequently it tends to attract horses that have been specially prepared for it.

This year, Glam Gerry looks like he will take all the beating – even if his price of 6/1 looks a little on the skinny side…

Now over to Kempton…

1:30

Kaffie is a mare that I’ve been waiting for, since her come-back run over course and distance at the end of November.

She finished fourth in a listed race that day, but ran really well, only giving best following a mistake at the second last hurdle.

That mistake knocked the stuffing out of her and she didn’t quite manage to get home. Opinion is split on whether she failed through lack of stamina that day – or lack of fitness.

I’m hopeful that it was the latter and if that was the case, I think she will take the world of beating today. The booking of Charles Green to take off 7lb also looks very significant. He is a jockey that Kim Bailey tends to use quite sparingly but when he does use him, you need to sit up and take notice…

It was my intention to only tip Kaffie in today’s race, but I simply cannot ignore the claims of Tweedledrum – and at a very big price, I simply had to tip her as well…

There are 3 reasons for me fancying Tweedledrum today:

Firstly, the form of her last time out victory at Ascot is stronger than it will appear to most.

Amongst others, she beat Romance Dance and Lady Kathleen that day – and both of these tie in with Queens Grove, and a general form line that has done well for us over the past month or so.

Secondly, she finished second to Kaffie last December at Exeter and although beaten a comfortable 8 lengths, is 23lb better off today. It is difficult to be categoric about how that will pan out today, but that is a very big weight turnaround.
Thirdly, Tweedledrum gets to run off the minimum weight today, minus a further 7lb of her jockeys claim – and I feel that could prove very significant in the bottomless ground.

Clearly, Tweedledrum doesn’t have the proven class of some of today’s rival – but she is only a 5 year old and therefore has scope for improvement.

At the prices, I found it impossible not to have her on board.

Let’s hope that one of them manages to come good today…

0.5pt win Kaffie 13/2

0.5pt win Tweedledrum 18/1

In the previous race on the card, it will be fascinating to see if Simonsig can build on his facile debut fencing success at Ascot.

Assuming he gets round safely, he should win.

The twice re-scheduled Peterborough chase takes place at 2:05.

A field of just 5 line up – but a chance could be given to each runner and the betting looks to have gauged their respective chances about right.

If there is any value in the race, it might be Hunt Ball – though his ability to act on the prevailing ground has to be taken on trust.

Whilst in the Desert Orchid chase, Sanctuaire is likely to find it a bit easier not having to try and burn off Sprinter Sacre.

I would expect him to be successful – but I can also see His Excellency running another big race.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Review of the day

It was nice to have a few days off over Christmas and put the racing to the back of my mind…

What wasn’t so nice, was coming back today and finding that my luck hadn’t changed a bit !

I tipped in 3 races – and managed to get 3 seconds: at 25/1, 14/1 and 11/1.

Admittedly only one of the three traded odds on in-running (though at 1.16 !!) – but the fact that the 25/1 shot was beaten by the horse I nominated as the main danger, felt almost as bad…

People keep telling me that luck evens itself out – and that I’ve just got to hang on in there – but it’s not that easy !

I know from bitter experience that these things don’t have to turn themselves round. What is just as likely to happen is that I’ll lose heart and the quality of the selections will drop off.

If that happens, then we needn’t worry about luck – because the horses won’t be getting close enough for it to matter!!

Anyway, enough of the self pity – I can keep it all in perspective – but it is very irritating non-the-less…!

Suffice to say, Captain Chris ran an absolute cracker in the King George and looked sure to prevail when he pinged the last fence and took a couple of lengths out of Long Run in the process.

I even had Richard Johnson on board – and the rail to help – so there can be no excuses.

Long Run was simply very brave and refused to be beaten…

Grands Crus ran a stormer to finish third and looked back to his best. He will win the Ryanair chase – assuming connections choose to run him in it !

The Giant Bolster made a mistake at the first and ran no sort of a race.

Whether it was the ground or the track, I don’t know – but his run can be ignored.

In the previous race, Raya Star ran really well but couldn’t match the acceleration shown by Darlan.

The lack of early pace certainly didn’t help Raya Star – though whether he would ever have been the winner must be debatable.

Darlan certainly looked like a proper Champion hurdle contender…

Over at Leopardstown, Rubert ran an absolute cracker – but was no match for Jacksonslady.

I thought long and hard about how to stake the race this morning. I seriously considered having Jacksonslady as a saver – but didn’t want to end up over-staking it.

Ultimately, we ended up paying for my conservatism…

We will also find that Rubert won’t be 25/1 next time he runs over 2 miles.

Quite a frustrating race really…!

Earlier on the Kempton card, Rajdhani Express absolutely dotted up in the handicap chase – thereby enabling us all to see how unlucky we had been last time out.

Whilst in the finale, Loose Chips get the better of Bathwick Brave in a battle of previous tips…

All in all, it was a good day for horses I’d tipped earlier in the season, with wins for Monkerty Tunkerty, Cape Tribulation, and Queens Grove – in addition to Rajdhani Express and Loose Chips.

Unfortunately, timing is everything – and we weren’t on them today, when it mattered…

Maybe our luck will change tomorrow…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 26th

An incredible 11 NH meetings today: 8 in the UK plus 3 more in Ireland…

There will be non-runners all over the place – and with the ground as deep as it is possible to race on, it makes sense to tread very carefully…

I’ve restricted myself to 3 tips today: one in each of the feature races at Kempton; plus another over at Leopardstwon…

Needless to say, I’ve got views on plenty of the other races – but with all the uncertainty, I think it best that they remain just views…!

So, on to the rationale for the tips, starting at Kempton:

2:35

I’m happy enough to take on the 2 markets leaders in this: Countrywide Flame because I think he is being given too much credit for his victory over Cinders and Ashes in the Fighting Fifth; and Darlan because it is his seasonal re-appearance and I’m not convinced that he will relish today’s ground…

Unfortunately, even with those 2 out of the race (from a ‘value’ perspective at least), it is still not that easy to solve…

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Cinders and Ashes bounce back from his Newcastle defeat – and if he does, then 5/1 will look quite generous.

Dodging Bullets could easily be a fair bit better than he has so far shown. He would probably have been the tip – but I’m not convinced that he will relish the desperate ground conditions.

If Nicky Henderson could somehow get Punjabi back in top form he would be favourite to win this – but that is a massive ask, as he has not been seen for nearly 3 years.

Whilst you couldn’t completely rule out Get Me Out of Here, as his stamina could come into play if the races turns into a war of attrition.

However, the one I’m going for is Raya Star.

This time last year, he won the Ladbroke handicap hurdle off a mark of 134 - but he has not stopped improving since then.

That run was followed by a third in the Tote Gold Trophy behind Zarkandar off a mark of 139. He then disappointed at the Cheltenham festival before bouncing back with victory in the Scottish champion hurdle off a mark of 143.

He began this season as he had ended last, with victory this time at Ascot off a mark of 149. And that was followed up by a highly creditable second to Oscar Whisky, again at Ascot.

Raya Star now has a rating of 155 – which makes him officially the third best horse in the race.

He also has a progressive profile and has shown himself capable of handling very soft conditions.

In short, he ticks a lot of boxes…

He doesn’t have the untapped potential of some of the more lightly raced sorts – but I think they all come with risks as well.

I’ll be very surprised if Raya Star doesn’t run his race today – and he would have been a nice EW bet with 8 in the race.

That said, I am happy enough playing win only on a horse whom I believe has a very good chance of victory.

0.5pt win Raya Star 11/1

3:10

A fascinating renewal of the King George chase…

The race has changed shape significantly over the past couple of weeks with the withdrawals of Al Ferof, Sizing Europe, Sir Des Champs and  Finians Rainbow.

Clearly, you needed a bit of luck if you chose to play ante-post in it – and we’ve got that with both of our selections, The Giant Bolster and Captain Chris, making it to the big day.

I’ve also added Grands Crus to the portfolio this morning. I always intended to tip him, if he made the race – but he could never have been an ante-post tip, with so many doubts surrounding his participation.

Even with these 3 on side however, we are not guaranteed to get the winner – in fact, we are not even guaranteed to get one placed !

I still think that Long Run is the most likely winner of the race. However, he is clearly beatable and at 2/1 he offers little in the way of value.

He is well suited to both the track and trip  - and the ground will be fine for him – but there is still that lingering doubt that maybe he isn’t quite as good as was once thought.

If I’m fearful of him however, I am (relatively !) happy to take on the next 2 in the market: Cue Card and Riverside Theatre.

Cue Card is a serious animal – of that there can be little doubt. If the conditions were less testing, I would be very afraid of him, but I have serious doubts about him getting home in today’s ground.

It will depend to an extent on how he is ridden – but even if attempts are made to preserve his stamina, I think they will ultimately prove futile.

I have similar concerns over Riverside Theatre – and at a longer price, Champion Court.

I could see Junior plugging on for a place – but if he achieves that, it is most likely to be as the last of 3 finishers…

So what of our selections..?

Despite seeming an unlikely runner a week ago, everything appears to have fallen perfectly for The Giant Bolster today.

He will have no issues with the ground and on form, he should be within a length or two of Long Run at the finish.

On the down side, I’m not entirely convinced that AP is the right jockey for him. The horse has had jumping problems – and AP can be very brave ! That said, if he does get him into a rhythm up front, jumping and galloping, I think he will take some passing…

The potential fly in the ointment is Grands Crus. A year ago to the day, the took apart field in the Feltham Novice chase, wining in a time faster than that clocked by Kauto Star in the big one.

The form of that race also looks incredibly hot, with Silviano Conti and Bobswoth his 2 nearest pursuers.

He has disappointed in both of his subsequent races, but has recently undergone a breathing operation. If that has cured what ever was ailing him – and he bounces back to the form he showed last year, than he will win today.

Our third runner in the race, Captain Chris would have had a much better chance on decent ground. I’ll be a little surprised if he is now good enough to win – but I could still see him running a fair race at a very decent price…

As for a tricast on our 3 runners – well that would just be for the very brave (or foolish !) . I’ll be happy if any one of the 3 can manage to come home in front…

Ante-post: 0.5pt EW The Giant Bolster 25/1

Ante-post: 0.5pt win Cpatain Chris 14/1

0.5pt win Grands Crus 9/1

  

Earlier on the card, I expected to be tipping Valmari in the novice handicap chase…

She takes on a couple of decent animals in Rajdhani Express and Coole River, but I felt she might be able to surprise them.

However, with a best price of 13/2, victory for her will not be quite the ‘surprise’ that I was anticipating  !
I suspect she will drift near the off – and at close to double figures I would have been interested – but as I have to tip in my window, she couldn’t be tipped…

I would also expect Bathwick Brave to run a big race in the finale.

However, he is up 9lb for his defeat last time – and takes on a couple of horse who could be miles ahead of the handicapper…

I would expect him to run well and he should be placed – but at 9/1, there is not sufficient in the price to make him a tip…

The final tip of the day runs at Leopardstown, and avid readers will know, is a horse who has been on my radar since the start of the season…

2:20

I’ve been waiting for Rubert to be dropped to the minimum trip – and it happens today…

Well, it doesn’t quite happen today, he’s got an extra furlong to travel – but it is significant drop in trip from his most recent runs and hopefully that will be sufficient  for him…

In his most recent race at Navan, he was ridden with restrain, presumably in an attempt to help him get the 2m4f trip.

He made good progress down the back straight and was still in contention entering the home straight but then tired very quickly and was pulled up.

On his previous outing he had adopted his more customary front running tactics but didn’t manage to get home and tired into third place after jumping the last.

With Eddie O’Connell back on board today, I would expect him to be ridden forcefully and I think he might have a few of his rival in trouble entering the home straight.

Whether he will be good enough to hold on for victory today is a different matter. This is a much tougher race than I would have liked, but I think he is worth the risk at the price, with a saver on him being placed…

In terms of dangers, then Carlingford Loch is very well handicapped over fences compared to his hurdles rating. If he jumps round cleanly, the will take the beating.

The other one I’m really fearful of is Jacksonslady.

I think she could be a fair bit better than her current rating of 128. However, I have some concerns about her effectiveness in very soft ground.

On balance, I am prepared to go with Rubert – safe in the knowledge that he should run a big race, though ultimately might find one or two a little bit too good for him..

0.5pt win 0.25pt place Rubert 25/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead.

TVB.

Review of the day

Whilst in a way, I’m not too surprised that today ended disappointingly, it was still a little irritating, the way things panned out…

The first tip to run was Carrickboy, and he ran really well at Haydock.

Turing into the home straight, he was in a battle with Cannington Brook and Merry King, but approaching the second last fence, his stamina gave out and he started to fade.

That left Cannington Brook and Merry King to fight out a thrilling finish – and it was the former who came out on top.

Why he didn’t run like that last time when we were on him at Chepstow, I really don’t know.

As I’ve said before, I guess they are not machines….

Next up it was Arctic Ben.

I had a dilemma this morning at to whether to tip him or Kudu Country and rounding the home turn, I was starting to think I’d got that call wrong as well…

And I suppose I had, but ultimately it didn’t matter, as Desert Cry sailed past them both on the run to the second last, to ultimately win easily.
On his hurdles form he was entitled to do what he did – but on his chase form, he had a lot to find.
The weight of money that came for him suggested that someone thought he was going to make light of the fences today – and so it proved…

The final tip for the day, Double Ross, also ran a really solid race at Ascot.

As expected, he helped force the pace throughout and was still in with a shout rounding the home turn.
However, he could only plug on at the one pace as Petit Robin and Dan Breen went on. However just as Petite Robin looked to have got the better of that dual, Cause of Causes appeared from out of the clouds and won going away.

Well, I did day he looked over-priced in the write-up !!

In the finale at Ascot, Ulk Du Lin just about managed to hold off the veteran Nozic.

Looking at he bare result, you might be excused for thinking I’d read the race wrongly.

However, earlier in the afternoon, Majala had sauntered home in the Haydock mud – and the way Ulk Du Lin had to fight for victory made me feel that if Majala had taken up his Ascot engagement, then he probably would have been victorious.

Of  course we will never know for sure – but I suspect if the race was run again tomorrow then we wouldn’t get 13/2 on Majala coming out on top !

Such is life…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 22nd

Just Ascot and Haydock have survived the weather and race today – though whether either meeting will run to it’s planned conclusion is a different matter.

I’ve got 4 tips – though I only expect 3 of them to run (!) but I’ve kept stakes small due to the uncertainty…

The write-up is also shorter than I would normally produce on a Saturday as I’ve had to do it very quickly. Furthermore, I’ve only commented on the races in which I’ve tipped.

All in all, not ideal – but the weather has kind of forced my hand…

Anyway, on to the rationale for the tips – starting at Haydock…

2:15

This looks a tricky race to call…

I was initially drawn to Cannington Brook – but although he should thrive in the conditions, his last time out run was disappointing and he will need to leave that behind to win here…

Quincy Des Picton could also be interesting, after a decent comeback run over course and distance. There has to be a question mark however, over whether he is sufficiently well handicapped to win a race of this nature.

Merry King has solid form and is young enough to still be improving – but his price is short for one who still has quite a lot to prove.

The other one of significant interest is Mac Aeda. However, Pricewise selecting him this morning took a fair bit of the juice out of his price – and he was a little disappointing last time…

Carrickboy was also disappointing last time – but that was over the Grand National fences, so I think that run can be ignored.

On his previous outing, he had run well at Ascot and he gets to run off a 2lb lower mark today.

It is debatable whether he will relish today conditions – but he has won in the heavy. It is also debatable whether he is a fan of Haydock, as he has been pulled up on his 2 previous visits !

However, that could just have been coincidence, as Haydock isn’t really the sort of course that horses love or hate.

In terms of positives, then until Carrickboy disappointed at Haydock last spring, he had very much looked like a horse on an upward curve. There have been legitimate reason for his disappointing runs since, so a 7lb drop in his handicap mark (to a mark only 3lb above his last wining mark) looks generous.

It’s impossible to be adamant that any horse will act in today’s conditions, but 3 miles on heavy doesn’t look as if it should present a problem.

And ofcourse, Carrickboy represents our favourite connections of Venetia Williams and Aiden Colemen (plus owner Trevor Hemmings, who loves to target his horses at Haydock and Aintree).

All in all then, not a solid bet – but a value one at the prices…

0.5pt win Carrickboy 12/1

2:50

I am pretty keen on Arctic Ben in this particular contest.

He should be close to peak fitness, after a couple of reasonably promising runs so far this season – and he will love the heavy ground.

There is also a chance that he will get an uncontested lead at a track where front-runners tend to do well. He already has joint bottom weight, but the booking of Jake Greenhall takes a further 3lb off his back and in today’s conditions, that could be invaluable…

However, there are 2 reasons why he was only staked at 0.5pt: firstly the presences of Kudu Country; and second the price…

I think Kudo Country has the potential to be a very decent chaser. His form last season stands up to the closest scrutiny and he should also handle the heavy ground.

It is quite probably that he needed his seasonal debut run and if that has brought him on, he is likely to prove a formidable opponent.

I am swayed to Artic Ben because he carries nearly a stone less weight; and because he might get the run of the race up front – but I can’t be overly confident.

I’ll be surprised if one the two doesn’t prove good enough today.

With regard to the price, then although I wasn’t overly happy with 5/1, I suspect only a few of you will have got that as you now can’t beat 7/2 !

Getting ‘value’ prices gets harder and harder, as the bookmakers tactic of pricing up the races overnight whilst taking peanuts on them, means they have a very accurate tissue when they open up in the morning.

Still, there is not a lot we can do about it – we just have to play (or pass) at the odds available at the time I issue the tips. And I felt that Arctic Ben was still worth a play at the best of this mornings prices…

0.5pt win Arctic Ben 5/1

And now to Ascot…

3:10

This looks ferociously competitive  - and a case can be made for a dozen or so of the runners…

However, at a price, I think it is worth a small play on Double Ross.

After starting this campaign over fences, he switched back to hurdles at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham in November and promptly routed a decent field of novices.

That race was over 2m5f but he led all the way and I’ll be surprised if he lacks the tactical pace required over todays 2 mile trip.

Certainly his ability to stay beyond 2 miles should be an asset – as should his ability to handle bottom-less conditions…

Following his Cheltenham victory, he ran again at Haydock just 6 days later in an equally competitive contest.

For most of the race, he looked like repeating his Cheltenham performance and he was still 4 lengths clear when he crashed through the final hurdle.

However, that mistake proved very costly and he emptied quickly up the run in, eventually finishing fourth.

He was raised 5lb for that run, which superficially looks little harsh – but I suspect it could end up looking lenient.

I would expect Sam Twiston Davies to try and make all on him again today – at a sedate pace – and then try to quicken from the home turn.

The race will doubtless end up a slog and racing prominently should be advantage.

In terms of his opponents then I would expect Olofi to run another very big race – and Cause of Causes looks over priced.

However there are also half a dozen other runners who are unexposed enough to show massive improvement on what they’ve done previously.

Not a race to be confident in, but one where I think Double Ross has a decent chance at a big price.

0.5pt win Double Ross 16/1

 

3:40

I was quite keen to take on Ulck Du Lin today..

He has to carry quite a big weight for a 4 year old – and at 6/4 on heavy ground makes very little appeal..

The trouble is trying to find one to take him on with.

I could have been quite keen on Majala – but he is running at Haydock instead (it was always his first preference but he has only just been taken out of the Ascot race).

With him out of the race, opposing Ulk Du Lin looks more difficult.

I don’t think conditions will be ideal for either Gus Macrae or Falcon Island – and whilst I can understand the money for Vino Griego, I would like to see him do it before backing him at 5/1…

The potentially interesting one could be El Lobo – but I would want to see money come before I would be prepared to support him…

Here’s hoping for a decent day.

TVB.

Race review

There is not a lot to be said about today’s selection, Round the Horn, who simply wasn’t good enough…

I think that maybe I got carried away with his trainer – take him away and the horse would not have had the same appeal.

Perhaps he would have got away with it against weaker opposition – but his opponents today just had a bit too much class for him…

Ultimately, it was Shaking Hands who handled the conditions best and stuck on gamely in the closing stages. However, Miko De Beauchenre travelled through the race with some purpose and clearly retains sufficient ability to win a similar contest.

He could be interesting next time – provided today’s race hasn’t left its mark…

In the finale Sweet Like You ran on to take second behind easy winner, Tonvadosa.

There is always a danger, in those kind of races, that you will bump into one – and Tonvadosa certainly looked like she had above average ability, as she powered home through the Towcester mud…

Lets hope things improve a little tomorrow – though the way the weather is at the moment, I wouldn’t want to bet on that happening…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 20th

With the abandonment of both Exeter and Downpatrick this morning, it is left to Towcester to provide the only NH racing of the day.

The course can be hard work at the best of times, but following 26mm of rain over night, the going is likely to be desperate.

I suspect that throughout the afternoon, there will be more horses pulling up than finishing races…

I’ve just got the one tip – and needless to say, it’s a horse that relishes heavy ground. Let’s hope he is good enough to continue our recent positive progress…

2:10

I’ve mentioned before about how I like the stable of Jim Old…

It is not quite the same as your ‘normal’ stable. He only trains a handful of runners and it can go months a without a winner – but when they come, they tend to come in batches.

I’m honestly not sure exactly how many winners he’s had in the last month –  I think it is about 4, from around 10 runners…

Whatever, it’s currently showing a very high strike rate – but because he runs so few horses, that fact tends to go unnoticed.

What’s more, it should be even better, as Witches Hat traded at 1.01 when beaten at Folkestone on Tuesday…

So, it’s fair to say that the trainer is in form…

It is also fair to say that the trainer likes Towcester…

I suspect his record is rubbish everywhere else (apart from Chepstow, maybe) but at Towcester, Jim Old has a strike rate of which any trainer would be proud…

In the last 4 years, he has sent out 45 runners at the course and 10 have won (22%). His level stake profit is 22.5. And it is even better over fences (where generally he tends to do better).

So, we have a trainer in form, running a horse at a track that he targets…

What about the horse himself..?

Well, funnily enough, he has won over 3 miles in the heavy at Towcester (though admittedly over hurdles) – so neither ground nor track should cause him an issue.

His 3 other wins have also been on soft going – as was his run last March behind My Boy Pady at Chepstow.

In fact, if it weren’t on the soft side today, I’m sure Round the Horn wouldn’t be running…

And that is one of the issues with the horse – he is clearly fragile. He will be 13 in just over a week and yet today’s run will only be the 14^th of his career…

The other issues with him are whether he will be fit enough for what is likely to be an absolute slog – bearing in mind this will be his seasonal debut.

As a rule, Jim Olds horses don’t tend to want for fitness however (they tend to want for pace !). I’ve no idea how he trains them, but I suspect it might well involve running them up very steep hills !

The other issue is whether he is well enough handicapped to win.

He is taking on some horses that were once very good: Miko De Beauchene won a Welsh National a few years back and was rated as high as 153 – off 119, if he retains any ability, he has to go close.

Shaking Hands is the other one I really fear as he should also love the conditions – but he does need to rediscover some kind of form…

However, on balance, I am happy to go with Round the Horn, safe in the knowledge that he will relish the conditions and is from a yard whose inmate are currently running out of their skin !!

0.5pt win Round the Horn 7/1

The only other horse I want to mention today, is Sweet Like You, who runs in the bumper that ends the card.

The subtle signs are very keen on him – and the less subtle ones are quite positive as well.

Certainly I think racecourse experience will be of benefit today (and quite a few of the fancied runner lack that) plus the way she was staying on at the end of her debut run – and her breeding – suggest that she will be right at home in today’s conditions.

6/1 is not quite the price I was hoping for – but I don’t suppose many of you will be complaining if she comes home in front.

Here’s hoping for a good day !

TVB.

Review of the day

This afternoon at Newbury, Sustainability became the second TVB winner in three days – and gave cause for quiet optimism that the run of poor luck was beginning to turn…

If you take out the speculative EW tips, he also became the fifth tip in the last six to trade odds on – and the eleventh in the last 20…

I don’t care how far you look - and how much you are prepared to pay – you will struggle to find a more consistent tipping than that…

If I was tipping 3/1 shots, then that kind of hit rate would be fair enough – but the average tip is currently more than double that price.

If we can just have a reasonable run of luck, then we really should start making some serious profits - which I can then look to invest on the more ‘exciting’ selections !

Anyway, I guess I shouldn’t be running before I can walk – Sustainability only managed to edge us into the black for the month, so we still have a fair way to go !

Earlier on the Newbury card, the early bird tip, Fabulous Fred, ran very disappointingly.

He was never really in the hunt and it was left to Handy Andy to make light of current stable form and come home a comfortable winner.

He certainly looks like a horse who can continue to progress throughout the season, at trips of 3 miles and further…

In the following race on the card, the subtle signs were close – but not quite close enough – as Veloce ran a really encouraging race to take second behind Poet.

It was amazing to see Poet return with an SP of 3/1 – I fully expected him to go off around even money.

In the race, he hurdled well enough and was able to put his flat speed to use in the closing stages.

On very heavy ground, he will take some beating in novice events over the minimum trip.

Over at Ludlow, the second tip of the day, Don’t Tell Sailor, ran disappointing in the 3m chase. He appeared unable to handle the very heavy conditions and was the first horse beaten.

The race was won by Tour Des Champs, who bounced back from a disappointing run last time out at Newbury.

Earlier on the Ludlow card, Preuty Boy raced prominently but was soon beaten in the novice handicap chase.

He didn’t look like a horse that you would want to follow in the immediate future.

Whilst in the following race, Drumshambo took advantage of the very heavy ground and fast pace, and came through for a comfortable win.

His mark has already been raised 12lb this season - and he can expect another 5 or 6lb for today’s victory. That said, I wouldn’t be confident that his winning streak is going to come to an end just yet..

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 19th

There are a couple of reasonable NH cards today, hosted by Newbury and Ludlow respectively…

Between them, they provide 5 races which I considered for tipping. I worked my way through all five yesterday afternoon/evening and found 2 main-line tips and an early bird tip.

Needless to say, I’ve also go a view on the other 2 races…

More of that later however, first the rationale for today’s tips, starting at Newbury…

12:50

I studied this particular race yesterday afternoon, and narrowed the field of 9, down to 5…

The horses I was potentially interest in were: Honest John, Handy Andy, Balbriggen, Fabulous Fred and High Kite.

I could see an argument for Chartreux – but on balance, I was prepared to let him pass…

In terms of form, I think that Handy Andy has the strongest claims – however, the form of the Colin Tizzard stable is a real worry…

Ballbriggen is probably the most solid contender in the race – and if there had been a main-line tip (and I did briefly consider it) he would have been it…

I felt that the other 3 all had fair chances, so it was a question of waiting to see what prices were offered…

When the bookmakers did open up, they broadly agreed with my view of the race- with the exception of Fabulous Fred.

Now in fairness, he was possibly the most risky on my short list – but that said, I believe his chances are a fair bit better than the 14/1 offered…

I would have priced him up around 8/1 – which is roughly the price he has settled on this morning (with Honest John now a NR).

Like I say, the case for him is not solid. However, he has shown glimpses of ability in a career so far curtailed by injury – and he was backed last time at Towcester, like a horse who connections felt was better than his current mark..

He ran OK that day – but his jumping let him down.

He has been dropped a pound for that run – and has Jeremiah McGrath on board today, taking off a further 5lb.

The soft ground at Newbury will be right up his street – and the flat track and well set out fences will hopefully cause him a few less issues than last time.

Like I say, he is not a rock solid selection by any means – but one with a sporting chance – and certainly a chance better than last nights odds of 14/1 implied

Early Bird: 0.5pt win Fabulous Fred 14/1

1:50

Another horse whom I’m hoping will be better suited to the Newbury course, is Sustainability…

I was quite keen on him last time out, when he ran in a hot novice handicap chase at Sandown – but it struck me that he didn’t really act on the track that day…

Sandown can be quite a tough course for an inexperienced chaser – with it’s daunting row of fences in the back straight – and Sustainability just didn’t appear to take to it.

If you get one of the fences wrong, there is very little time to compose yourself before the next one comes along. It certainly isn’t a course that suits all…

If you take that run out of his record, then I think Sustainability can be given a very good chance today.
He was a progressive novice hurdler last season, who has shown that he can handle soft ground.
He also made a promising fencing debut at Exeter, which suggested that there was more to come over the bigger obstacles.

In terms of the opposition, then Double Dash and Balinroab are the most interesting…

The former made a decent re-appearance at the last Newbury meeting in a hot novice handicap chase.

Quite surprisingly, he was backed into favouritism for that contest and he ran with significant promise.

If he can build on that performance he will be a real danger today – however, I think it is just as likely that he will ‘bounce’ (go backwards). That being the case, Sustainability, looks the more solid option.

The other one of some interest is Balinrobe. He makes his handicapping debut today and could be well treated. However, there is a fair amount of guesswork involved in assessing his chances –and the price available means that rewards will be limited. That said, if money were to come for him, I would be worried.

On balance however, Sustainability is the solid option – and a fair enough bet at the prices.

0.5pt win Sustainability 5/1

I’ve not mentioned the ‘subtle signs’ in a little while – but they are quite keen on Veloce in the novice hurdle at 1:20.

This is the race in which the group class Poet makes his hurdling debut – however he never really struck me as wanting a hurdle to jump.

Veloce was rated 30lb lower than Poet over hurdles – but the fact that Donald McCain and Jason Maguire travel all the way down to Newbury with just the one horse, strikes me as quite significant.

At 16/1 he might be worth a very small play…

Over to Ludlow then and the final tip of the day…

2:45

I wouldn’t describe Don’t Tell Sailor as a great tip – but at around 16/1, I do think he is great value…

In fact I would have happily had 0.5pt EW on him at that price but for one thing.

His trainer, Jenny Candlish, has gone 200 days and sent out 76 runners since her last winner.

I’m a big believer in following trainers in form (and avoiding those out of form) and that is quite a strong pointer.
That said, some of her recent runner have been performing with credit - and as we know only too well, luck can be a fickle mistress !!

I’m therefore hoping that her form isn’t as bad as it appears – but I’ve adjusted the stake down a little, just in case !

Like I said, Don’t Tell Sailors form isn’t absolutely rock solid – but it’s not too bad either.

Last season, he finished second to Rigadin to Beauchene and then beat Toby Belch at Leicester (when that one was an early bird tip).

Don’t Tell Sailor gets to run off a mark today, 5lb higher than at Leicester.

He has ruin twice over hurdles this term; first time out, he just blew away the cobwebs at Aintree, but second time was far more encouraging at Haydock, in a decent race behind San Telm, Yesyoucan and Loose Chips.
That was decent form and showed that Don’t Tell Sailor was ready to produce his best.

Aside from him, you can make a case of sorts for most of the other runners. Potentially the most interesting pair are Tour Des Champs and Moonlight Drive.

However they both come with risks and are significant shorter in the betting than Don’t Tell Sailor.

0.25pt EW Don’t Tell Sailor 18/1

In the 1:10 race, I got very close to putting up Preuty Boy as a tip.

However, the issue I have with him, is the same as the issue with Don’t Tell Sailor – stable form…

David Arbuthnot has gone 190 days and sent out 32 runners since his last winner. However, more worrying, his recent runners don’t; seem to be in any sort of form.

Preuty Boy performed best of them, when running last time at Sandown (in Sustainability’s race) – but he was still beaten a long way.

I have little doubt that he is handicapped to win a race such as this – but he is not so well handicapped that I can ignore his stables form.

Maybe worth a tiny little saver - but that is all I could recommend…

Finally, I wanted to take on Drumshambo in 1:40 race – but I couldn’t find anything suitable…

I’m just not sure that Drumshambo is a 2 miler – and Ludlow is quite a sharp track.
However against that, the ground is soft and if there is a lot of pace in the race, his stamina may well become important.

If I had taken him on, it would likely have been with either The Chazer or Russian Flag – but I just couldn’t find sufficient positives with either of them, to make that call.

Here’s to a good day ahead.

TVB.