Review of the day

I should have guessed it was going to be one of those days, when our best bet of the day, Ballymacduff, was deprived a chance to run, by the abandonment of the Musselburgh card…

But alas, worse was to follow…

Our second best bet of the day, Benbane Head, was ‘broadsided’ by a loose horse just after passing the winning post on the first circuit. The collision cost it half a dozen lengths, momentum and the lead: he would have needed to have plenty in hand to recover from that…

And then our third best bet of the day, Pasco, pulled up lame after jumping the very first fence…

It was certainly one of those days.

Maybe I was a little hasty bemoaning our lack of good fortune yesterday – at least we’d not previously been ravaged by bad luck !

So, it was left to our 2 borderline calls to try and save the day – but unfortunatley, they were not up to the job..

In fairness to Counting House, he ran an honourable race to take fourth in the handicap hurdle – though he never really looked likely to trouble the winner.

It would have helped if I had put him up EW instead of Benbane Head – but then it wouldn’t have been ‘one of those days’…

The final tip of the day, Knockando, drifted like the proverbial barge pre-race…

This morning I had speculated that a win might have helped pay for connections diesel. However the way the horse drifted pre-race, you could be excused for thinking they had maybe found a different way to cover their travel expenses !

In fairness, he didn’t run too badly – but he is probably a longer term project on truly soft ground…

To help with the misery, Dynaste dotted up like a 1/2 shot should do – he looked very good indeed.

The day would have been complete, if Mahogany Blaze had managed to get up in Pasco’s race – but somehow, Bless the Wings found reserves to repel him…

As you may have gathered from the write up, I did think about putting him up, but decided against it.

That said, you know it is a poor day when your one crumb of comfort comes from the defeat of a horse you didn’t tip…

And so ends the first month of the TVB season.

The numbers say it has been pretty good – from a personal perspective, it has been mighty frustrating !

However, I won’t say too much here, as I’ll create a proper monthly report over the weekend and issue it – probably on Sunday evening.

I’ll also produce a satisfaction survey, which I will send out to you all at roughly the same time, to help me gauge how you are all feeling about the service.

I would be grateful if you could find the 10 mins requited to complete it and return it to me…

On to December then…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 30th

Day 2 of the Newbury winter festival, is the headline act today – supported domestically by meetings at Musselburgh and Doncaster  - with Thurles in Ireland, weighing in with an all hurdle card…

I was waxing lyrical about the Thurles card yesterday- but I’m afraid I don’t feel quite the same about their offering today…

I may be a NH man – but I think I’m really a steeplechase man ;)

And as if to support that theory, 3 of the 4  races that I’ve tipped in today are chases – one at each of the domestic meetings…

I’ll start the days preview at Newbury – as it is the most significant meeting of the day – and also responsible for 3 of today’s tips (across 2 races)…

2:40

This is the kind of race that could do some serious damage to your P&L !

It’s a race where everyone is likely to have an opinion – feel they’ve found an angle – and where in truth, at least one of a dozen horses could actually win…

That said, I think the most likely winner of the race is the favourite Ballybough Pat.

He has already shown form good enough to go very close today –and he is young enough to have plenty of scope for improvement.

I couldn’t tip him at 4/1 – but I’m very wary of opposing him…

That said, I think there is an EW angle in the race – and I have a sneaky suspicion about another, so I am playing in the race – just with small stakes though…

The first selection is Benbane Head.

I’m sure a lot of you will recall him doing us a big favour earlier in the month, when successful at Towcester.

He put up a tremendously gutsy effort that day, looking the winner of the race, nowhere apart form the line.

He was raised 5lb for that win and I was sure that the combination of that - and the soft ground – would find him out next time at Cheltenham – and it did, but only just…

IMO he ran a much better race in defeat that day than he had in victory at Towcester. It was a better class race and he travelled supremely well for most of it.

Ultimately, he was found out by the Cheltenham hill in the soft ground – but he lost very little in defeat.

He drops 2 furlongs in trip today – and the ground is unlikely to be quite so testing.
I also think that the long Newbury straight will very much play to his strengths.

Take the favourite out of the race, and he would have been a much stronger bet – but I’ll be a little surprised if he is quite good enough to win…

Counting House is altogether more speculative – but I just have a sneaky feeling about him today.

I admit that a lot of it is down to his stable. Jim Old is an amazing trainer  - with his strike rate, I’ve no idea how he has kept going as long as he has. However, when he hits a streak of form (about once a year !) – you need to sit up and take notice..

His last 4 runners have yielded 2 winners and a second – that is pretty hot form by anyone’s standards…

Last time out, Counting House ran a very good race against the well weighted Arkose

He has been raised a few pounds for that run but should still be competitive off his new mark today.

Simply, he was one that I just felt we had to have on side, because I think he has a squeak – and he is too big a price to ignore…

Of the others in the race, it would come as no surprise to see good runs from Bakbenscher, Stow and No Secrets – though as I said, Ballybough Pat is the one I really fear…

0.25pt EW Benbane Head 14/1

0.25pt win Counting House 18/1 

3:15

Pasco is another old favourite, as he was a successful selection for me in the TVB pre-season…

That was in a race at Aintree, where he ultimately won very easily.

In truth, I think that result flatters him a little: more unusually for a TVB selection, luck smiled on him, as one by one his opponents ruined their chances (by falling, making mistakes or getting hampered).

Pasco was raised 8lb for that effort – which could be considered a little harsh in the circumstances. However, it still leaves him 7lb below the mark from which he ran an absolute cracker at this meeting 2 years ago, when chasing up Mount Oscar.
Also, we now know that Pasco is back in serious form – so you can’t have everything…

Whether 7lb in hand of his current mark will be sufficient to win today’s contest, is debatable – but I hope it will…

There is nothing in the race that strikes me as being outstandingly well handicapped (apart from Prince of Pirates maybe – but he comes with risks) so I am prepared to take the risk.

At bigger prices, I am a little fearful of both Matuhi and Mahogany Blaze. I selected the latter last time out in the Rowan chase at Aintree and whilst he was a little disappointing that day, he did run into a very well handicapped horse in For Non Stop.

Mahogany Blaze has been dropped 4lb following that run and he will come back into form soon – but hopefully not today !!

0.5pt win Pasco 6/1

Elsewhere on the Newbury card. I would have been very tempted to tip Mallusk in the novice chase at 1:30, if the 25/1 from last night had still been available this morning…

You could argue that he still might be worth a small EW pay at his current price – but I think the margins are now small.

The particularly eye-catching part of his form is his last time out run over hurdles, in the same race that provided us with loose Chips earlier in the week.

However, Mallusk was quite well beaten that day – and has a higher mark over fences to contend with…

All in all, a borderline call – but one I decide to pass on…

In the Berkshire novice chase, Dynaste will obviously take all the beating – but I would be looking to taking him on…

If Tony Martin allows Benefficient to take his chance after yesterdays exertions, I would expect him to go very well over this slightly shorter trip.

Court in Motion will also be a serious challenger in receipt of weight – and he would probably be my choice in the race.

Theatre Guide is another whom I could see running very well…

In summary, this is not going to be easy for Dynaste – and he is no 1/2 shot in my book…

Over at Doncaster, there is just the one race where I have a strong view…

3:05

This looks a hugely trappy contest – but I think Knockando is worth a small play at big odds…

He managed to record a couple of victories as a novice hurdler last season, but has always looked more of a chaser.

First time out this season, he fell, when well behind at Wetherby. However, he didn’t jump badly up until that point – and I suspect the run was needed that day.

3 miles, soft ground and flat left handed track are his conditions – and he gets all of those today.

It seems highly significant that Lucinda Russell sends him on a near 500 mile round trip for today’s contest. I get the feeling he will be trying, if nothing else !

In truth, it is a race where victory for any of the runners would come as no big surprise.

If forced to nominate a main danger, then I would plump for Weston Lodge, as he looks a progressive sort.

However, at double his odds, I am happy to have a small play on Knockando and hope that he can replay some of the diesel money for Lucinda ;)

0.5pt win Knockando 10/1

Finally, at Musselburgh (assuming it is passed fit for racing)…

1:10

Just how confident is it reasonable to be over a horse that hasn’t won a race over fences in 11 tries..?

The thing is, I’m very confident about Ballymacduff – I should really have staked him at doublet he level I have – but I can’t help but feel a little nervous about him, based on his past performances…

Last time out, he was cruising alongside The Big Freeze (the day that I tipped that one) at Musselburgh, when he fell.

It was too far out to be adamant about the outcome, but he was going so well, it is difficult to think he wouldn’t have been involved in the finish, if he had stood up…

In truth, Ballymacduff has always been a horse with ability way above his lowly handicap mark – connections just haven’t been able to get him to demonstrate it…

Now I’m not one to have a go at jockeys – but I can’t help but wonder whether his old regular pilot, Jan Faltesjek, was part of the problem…

Ballymadcduff certainly wouldn’t be the first horse to benefit from a change of jockey.

Last time out, Ryan Mania seemed to be getting a tune out of him until the fall –and today, Lucy Alexander is entrusted with the reigns.

I really do hope – and think – that she will make the difference. She is a very talented rider – and her 3lb clam is a gift.

What makes the case so strong foe Ballymacduff today, is the paucity of credible opposition. I’m really struggling to see much in the race to worry about !

In summary, then, if Lucy can get him settled and jumping – and Ballymacduff runs the race I’m sure he is capable, I would expect to see him winning hard held (like the good old TVB tips used to ;)

1pt win Ballymacduff 5/1

Here’s hoping for a great day !

TVB

Review of the day

What can I say…?! No seriously, what can I say ? – I’m almost lost for words…

If lady luck ever decides to smile on TVB, then I’ll do some serious damage !

I reckon that one day it will all come together and I’ll make 50 points in a day – I just hope you are all around to be part of it…!!

Anyway, that day wasn’t to be today – instead, we just inched forward with a 0.75pt profit.

Oh how different it all could have been…

Let’s start with the most painful one…

I don’t care how many Tipsters you guys subscribe to – or indeed how many tips you receive – I can promise you that you won’t get 2 better tips than Monastrell on the second day of the service; and Another Flutter today.

It is therefore particularly hard for me to watch both of them squarely rattling the cross bar…

I guess I can’t honestly say that Another Flutter was ‘unlucky’ as he was simply beaten by a better horse of the day – but what a race he ran…

As expected he was close to front rank all the way round and when John Cullen kicked for home after jumping the third last I did think he might do it.

He traded at 1.4 IR – but he couldn’t shake off the favourite Whiskey and Red and that one edged past him on the run to the final fence.

It was a gallant performance from both horse and jockey – but I doubt we’ll get 16/1 on him next time…

Earlier in the afternoon, Bathwick Brave had not done a lot to help redress the TVB luck imbalance…

It was too far out to say for certain, but he was cruising in behind the leaders and had just touched 2/1 IR, when he completely missed out the fourth last hurdle and paid the price.

I do wonder if connections might switch him to fences as he is such a big horse, he possibly pays no attention to the hurdles.

Whatever, it will be scant consolation to us – and he goes down as another one that got away.

The third tip of the day ran in the opener at Thurles.

There was no bad luck there however, Carrigeen Kariega simply wasn’t quite good enough.

That said, she ran an honourable race for a 33/1 shot – and will almost certainly be found an opening over a little further, probably on heavy ground…

The heavy ground at Thurles proved no barrier to success for Forpadytheplasterer in the feature race on the card.

He got a fine ride from Bryan Cooper, who saved every inch of ground on the inside and ultimately he won well. Post race talk of a tilt at the Grand National sounded a little far fetched however...!

Over at Newbury, Aaim to Porpsoer just couldn’t get to Meganisi in the opener. It was a good performance from both horses and it will be interesting to see how they progress through the season.

Elanisa ran a fair race in the novice handicap chase – but appeared not quite to get home in the soft ground. The winner, Parsnip Pete, looked a progressive sort…

In the Worcester Novice chase, Benefficient looked to have the race won, jumping the last, but Harry Topper came out of nowhere to nail him in the shadows of the post.

I suspect we will see Benefficient dropped back a couple of furlongs, next time out…

Rigadin De Beauchene was incredibly unlucky not to win the handicap chase (the racing gods clearer thought he was a TVB tip ;) ).

His jockey did remarkably well to survive a dreadful blunder a the third last, just as  he was about to take up the running.

That seemed to cost him all chance of victory – but somehow he found reserves to battle back and still be in with a chance at the last.

However, he couldn’t quite peg back the winner, Sizing Santiago, on the run in…

I suspect he will be a pretty short price to make amends next time out – though he will have to brush up his jumping…

Finally, the subtle signs didn’t quite get it right in the bumper.

Westaway ran a decent race, but couldn’t go with the front 3 in the betting, as they broke away inside the final couple of furlongs.

Over at Taunton, Paintball race the kind of race I expected – he will be dropped a few more pounds for that.

However, Queens Grove managed to prove me wrong and win the finale…

In fairness, I’m not sure she really proved me wrong as it was stamina that ultimately won her the day – even over the 2 mile trip -  as the ground was riding very soft.

Whilst My Flora could only finish second in the opener at Uttoxeter – though as I said, I suspect she will leave that form behind next time, given a more suitable test…

On to tomorrow then…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 29th

It’s good to be back in action today – particularly with such interesting and varied racing on offer…

Domestically there are meetings at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter – whilst over in Ireland, there is an all chase card at Thurles..

I fully expected my main tipping action to be at Newbury, where there is a tremendous days sport in prospect. However, good as the races are, they are more for the viewer then the bettor.

I’ve found one small tip  - but the main betting action today, is across the Irish see at Thurles…

Thurles is one of my favourite Irish courses – and they have put on a brilliant card this afternoon.

I love chases – and I particularly love novice chases – so any card containing 3 such events is always likely to go down well with me !

Additionally, there is a very nice conditions chase (where I was also half tempted to tip) – and a couple of handicap chases.

All in all, heaven !!

I’ll start the preview with Thurles – simply because it has the main bets – and it would be no exaggeration to say they are two bets that I am particularly excited about…!!

12:30

I am very keen on Carriggen Kariega in this – I just wish today’s opposition wasn’t quite so strong…

She is a mare that I’ve been following since she retuned to racing under rules, last spring.

That return followed a successful spell in the pointing fields – which is part of the reason I fancy her today…

Her form in bumpers and over hurdles since May has been quite reasonable.
She ran very well in her first bumper back – and probably bettered that in her subsequent hurdle run at Clonmel.

Following that run, she contested a Grade 2 mares hurdle at Fairyhouse and although she finished well beaten that day, she was bang in there with a shout until the final couple of hurdles.

On that run, she is held by Carrig Millie – but I honestly don’t think there will be much between the 2 of them today…

Carrigeen Kariega has experience over fences  -and wining form in heavy ground –and I think those 2 factors could prove significant today.

I certainly expect to see her improve markedly on her already decent hurdle form – and if she able to do that, I am optimistic that she will be able to run into a place, at very least…

0.5pt EW Carrigeen Kariega 33/1

3:20

If I’m sweet on Carrigeen Kariega today - then I’m positively smitten with Another Fluttter !

Once again, he is a horse that I’ve been following for a long time.

He was impressive when making a wining chasing debut at Thurles 18 months ago.

I was sure that he would go on from that victory – however he disappointed the next twice and then was off the course for over a year…

He reappeared at the Listowel festival this September – and although he was pulled up that day, he showed some promise.

It was the same next time at Limerick – this time over hurdles – he again showed promise but was ultimately pulled up.

Last time out at Punchestown however, it was a very different story.

In the van throughout, he only weakened on the run to the last and whilst he was  a shade lucky to secure fourth place – there was immeasurable promise in the run…

Today, Another Flutter is running off a mark of 95 – a full 12lb below the mark he was given flowing his novice chase victory. That makes him look well handicapped to me…

He has also run himself back into form, in a very subtle manner…

Finally, the icing on the cake (and you should know by now that I like a bit of icing ;)  ), is the booking of John Cullen…

He is a jockey I really like. He does nothing flash – but always gives his horses a good ride. I particularly like him on front runners –and Another Flutter is a front runner.

Expect to see John have Another Flutter there or thereabouts throughout  - and hopefully he will prove good enough to see off all of his rivals in the home straight.

0.75pt EW Another Flutter 16/1

Last night, I did think there was a chance that I would be tipping in the Glen chase, at 1:35…

The main reason for me thinking that way was because Forpadytheplaster had been installed quite a short priced favourite.

Now Fordpady is a horse I like – but he is not a 3 mile chaser- and he does not want heavy ground. Therefore with that combination today, I felt he had to be opposed…

With Oscar Time returning from a long break and Berties Dream generally under-performing, I felt the 2 to concentrate on were Allee Guard and Snooze.

However, the early markets have now been corrected and those 2 are at prices where there is very little margin…

Consequently it has become a watching race – but a very interesting one none the less…

There is a fascinating card at Newbury – but most of the races are nearly impossible to call and it has only yielded the one tip…

1:30

My eye was initially drawn to Tycoons Reflection in this race…

He is making his debut for Mick Channon and I suspect we are yet to see the best of him.

Whether today will be the day that he reveals his true talents however, remains to be seen.
I suspect he will ultimately end up a better chaser than he is a hurdler- so maybe one to watch with a view to the future…

Another one who is likely to make a better chaser than he is hurdler, is Bathwick Brave – but I’m not sure that will stop him winning today !!
He was mightily impressive last time when winning a hurdle race at Uttoxeter and I think there is every chance that he will be able to follow up today off a 7lb higher mark.

Certainly the impost of 11st7lb, even in soft ground, is not going to bother him – he is a giant of a horse.

He will also have the assistance of AP in the saddle, if he is ever in 2 minds about putting it all in !

Not that I have any questions marks over his attitude. He looks a thoroughly straight forward horse and one that has been steadily improving since his summer transfer form the stable of David Pipe.

Clearly the favourite, Ivors King, will take a bit of beating in his chase for a 4 timer. However he is running off a mark almost 30lb higher today that when he started his successful spree and I wonder if that will just prove a bit too much…

Otto the Great has form linked in to Ivors King but I would be a little concerned about him over today’s trip.

In short, I think Bathwick Brave will take the beating today – and 6/1 was a fair enough price to get involved…

0.5pt win Bathwick Brave 6/1

Elsewhere on the Newbury card..

I was half expecting to tip Rigadin De Beauchene in the handicap chase at 2:40…

I’m quite a fan of the horse and he made a very nice seasonal debut at Uttoxeter at the back end of last month.

He has been raised 3lb for that run – but I suspect he can still be competitive off his new mark.
However, I think today’s race will take some winning !

The top two in the weights are also the top 2 in the betting and victory for either would come as no surprise…

Alvorado was impressive last time out; whilst Cedre Bleu has always looked a decent horse and first time out is likely to be the time to catch him..

Additionally, strong cases can be made for Tour Des Champs and Sizing Santiago.

In short, Rigadin is fifth best in the betting – and that is probably about right !

In the opener on the card, it will be fascinating to see if Aaim to Prosper can translate his high class flat form to hurdles…

If he can, then even over what is likely to be an inadequate stamina test, he will take all the beating.

2/1 is probably not a bad price (even though I won’t be playing !)

There is a really interesting handicap chase at 12:55 where a case can be made for most of the runners…

If backed into a corner, I would go with Elenika, who beat a decent sort of his British debut at Huntingdon and who may be able to improve for that initial experience.

The race of the day, is probably the Worcester Novice chase at 2:05.
It’s not often that you see a contest where every runner won last time out -  but they did in this !

Houblon Des Obeaux is officially the best horse in the race and was very impressive last time out,. He is a worthy favourite.

However, it will be no surprise if one of his opponents today improved enough to given him a stern challenge.

Of the others, then Benefficient may prove to be a bit of value at 9/1 – but really this is another watching race…

Finally, the bumper – and those subtle signs…

Today they say to me Westaway could be the one –and that 11/2 is not too bad a price…

I’ve nothing much to say about the days 2 others meetings at Taunton and Uttoxeter…

At Taunton, I thought Paintball could be interesting on the 2:15 off a mark only 2lb higher than when he won the Imperial Cup (if you ignore the fact that Keilan Woods claims).

However, I don’t like the fact he has top weight; or that he is not running over the minimum trip – and I suspect that if he was expected to run a big race, he would be much stronger in the market.

In the finale, I could have been very interested in Queens Grove – over half a mile further.

I know she is half sister to Ashley Brook –and he wasn’t devoid of pace – but she struggled to get there over half a mile further last time out, so I just can’t see her having sufficient toe to win today…

Maybe I’ll be proven wrong – but I won’t be betting on her…

As for Uttoxeter – keep an eye on My Flora, making her debut for Donald McCain in the opener.

2 miles over hurdles is not exactly what she wants – but she may well be too good for her rivals regardless.

Next time out, back over fences at a more suitable trip, she will be of more interest…

Here’s to a great day ahead.

TVB.

Review of the day

It was nice to see Loose Chips go some way towards righting the wrongs of the weekend, in the opener at Kempton this afternoon.

It was a bit of a shame that Bally Legend couldn’t double up later on the card (as I suspect that would have been exactly what he was doing for a number of you !) – but there you go…

I was actually a little fearful that Loose Chips wasn’t going to get home in the opening contest. He looked a bit sweaty – and was certainly keen in the early stages.
But credit to Noel Fehily who clearly managed to settle him well enough – and still had sufficient in reserve to hold off the late challenge of Ski Sunday.

At his best, Ski Sunday is a decent horse, so there may well have been some credit in Loose Chips proving his master today. I would reckon that he could cope with a rise of up to 7lb in the handicap, for today’s victory…

Bally Legend is almost certainly well enough handicapped to win a chase – unfortunately he wasn’t able to prove it today…

He was unlucky to run into Current Event, who was given a peach of a ride by a 7lb claimer – and never touched a twig on the way round.

Bally Legend is unlikely to come up against such an opponent next time out…

Elsewhere on the Kempton card, Firm Order probably did enough to repay those who were brave enough to back him pre-race – and then lay him in-running.

As I was saying to Reno, backing and laying is an inexact science – and one that can really only be learnt through trial and error (and getting burnt a few times !).

However his BSP was 60 – and he touched 13 IR – so provided people weren’t too greedy, there was definitely scope for profit (or at very least, no loss !).

In the mares hurdle, Knockfierna justified Davy Russell’s jaunt across the Irish sea.

She is a very talented mare –and conditions were perfect for her today.

In a race where there were question marks over the suitability of the trip for many of her rivals – there were absolutely non for her.

Kaffie ran a cracking race, leading until the second last, at which point she weakened out of things.

She will doubtless come on for the run and will take some beating under suitable conditions, next time out…

Over at Ludlow, Carrigmorna King got the better of Dare Me, in what was a match for the last half mile of the contest.

In fairness, the race didn’t take much resolving and I won’t be going crazy patting myself on the back for calling it correctly !

Iminamalabulosaloon got nailed on the post, in the 3m handicap chase.

He travelled like a dream and looked the winner everywhere bar the line, I suspect his connections were left ruing the rain…

Finally, I didn’t quite read the subtle signs right in the bumper.

Devils Dyke ran a perfectly creditable race to finish second (and reward EW support, if that is your way) but he could never quite get to the Richard Johnson ridden favourite, Be Bop Boru.

So, all in all, not too bad a day…

3 winners; 3 seconds and a fourth, from the 7 races I covered – and most importantly, a winning tip ;)

TVB. 

Daily write-up - Nov 26th

First of all, apologies for the late delivery of today’s write up…

The area of the country in which I live is currently being subjected to significant local flooding. I‘ve been living here for over 25 years and it’s the worst I’ve ever seen.

As a result, many of the small local roads are currently closed and it is virtually impossible to travel anywhere.

I’ve spent a couple of hours stuck in traffic this morning, trying to execute the school run !

I fear that there could be a long week ahead…!

Anyway, enough of my domestic woes !

Two NH cards today at Kempton and Ludlow – and I suspect the going at both will be pretty testing…

I spent a long time trawling though both cards last night and whilst I couldn’t come up with anything spectacular, I do believe I’ve found a couple of solid bets at Kempton.

Lets hope they both perform as I believe them capable…

12:30

This is one of those complicated races, to which I was referring yesterday…

If you turn it around enough, you can find a case (or at least half a case) for almost every runner.

However, if you look at it squarely, and try to find the best handicapped horse in the race, then one of them just jumps out…!!

The horse in question is Loose Chips – and the piece of form which makes him look very well handicapped is his last time out run at Haydock.

He ran an absolute cracker that day, racing from the front and only giving way at the second last hurdle.

What is particularly significant about the run, is the two horses that beat him: San Telm and Yesyoucan. Both have gone on to frank the form in no uncertain terms: San Telm with an excellent run at Cheltenham off a higher mark and Yesyoucan with a thrilling victory in a really strong race at Haydock this weekend.

Loose Chips was the only member of the field to give those 2 a race that day – and he gets to run off the same mark today.

I have some concerns about upping him in trip and the application of blinkers for the first time; I also have some concerns about the weight he has to carry today in the soft ground. I even have some concerns about the opposition he will face today.

However, put simply, if Loose Chips repeats the form of his Haydock run today, he will take the world of beating.
The fact that he likes to front run, is a bonus as it reduces the chances of things going wrong during the race.

One thing for sure, if Fehily gets his fractions right, Loose Chips should take a lot of passing…

0.75pt win Loose Chips 11/2

2:35

Joker Choker was the horse I expected to be tipping in this particular race.

He really caught my eye last time at Aintree and back over fences today off a 3lb lower mark I expected him to take all the beating – but then the rain came…

Try as I might, I can’t find anything in Joker Choker’s form that suggests he is going to be able to cope with today’s conditions – and so I have had to reluctantly pass him over…

That said, with him out the way, the race is a little easier to solve ;)

I would expect Niceonefrankie to run a decent race (assuming his last time out fall is not repeated), but he may have to give best to a potentiality well handicapped rival in Bally Legend.
Today will only be Bally Legend’s second run over fences. His first was at Taunton at the end of October. He ran a perfectly satisfactory race that day, finishing third behind two very decent rivals. His jumping was sound, if a little careful land, and he finished well over a trip that was always likely to be on the short side for him.

Based on hurdle form, his rating of 129 over fences is very workable. He should be better suited by today’s trip and will have no issues with the ground.

In summary, provided his jumping holds up in this more competitive race, I think he will have a very good chance of victory.

0.5pt win Bally Legend 9/2

In the previous race on the card, I think Knockfierna will take all the beating.

Kaffie could be a danger if fully tuned for her seasonal debut – but I suspect connections will have left something to work on with her.
That being the case, I would expect Knockfierna to prove the best in the field and justify the day out, for Davy Russsel and Charles Byrnes !

Finally at Kempton, I can see Firm Order running better than his odds imply.

I doubt he will be good enough to actually win the race – but I can see him forcing it from the off and if his rivals have any jumping issues, then who knows what might happen.

He’s not really a bet – but a pre-race back to lay IR, might reap some rewards…

Over at Ludlow,

I’ll be astonished if the novice chase at 1:10 doesn’t fall to either Carrigmorna King or Dare Me.

On decent ground I would have strongly favoured the former – but if the going is very soft, I wouldn’t be quite do sure.

In the handicap chase at 2:50, I would expect Inamalabusaloon to follow up his Cartmel victory of the summer – provided he handles the soft going.
He was very impressive that day and I’m sure he will be able to shrug off a 9lb rise in the handicap.

Finally, you should be learning by now that I like to try and unlock bumpers by interpreting the subtle signs…

Well, the subtle signs say to me that Devils Dykes could be the one in this particular contest …

A beaten favourite first time out I have a sneaking suspicion that he might be able to make amends for that reversal today ;)

Here’s to a great day !

TVB.

Race review

Another frustrating day, when I managed to turn a potential profit into a loss…

As I said in the daily write-up, when I first looked at the Troytown last night, the bet that jumped out at me, was Jadanli – EW.

The mistake I made – and I probably made the same one yesterday, with Monsieur Cadou’s race – was spending too much time looking through all of the runners trying to find different angles..

The trouble with races like today’s – an indeed yesterdays – is that you can over-analyse them. If you are prepared to turn them over and over, trying to find different  angles, then unsurprisingly, different potential selections will fall out and just confuse your thinking.

I think that is precisely what I did on both occasions.

So from now on the mantra is: if the race is complex, keep the analysis simple !!

In the race itself, Zardsky put up a decent showing from the front – but was never going quite as well as fellow front runner, Glenqest. He lasted until the final half mile of the race – but then weakened quite rapidly…

Jadanli was always travelling reasonable well – but just didn’t have the pace to get on terms with the leaders.

That said, he stayed in to good effect down the home straight, to finish an honourable fourth…

Of the other mentions, them The Hard Hat never featured and was eventually pulled up; whilst Romanesco seemed to travel OK – but couldn’t find anything in the closing stages of the contest…

In the first race of the day, it looked like ‘the mentions’ were going to get off to a flyer, as Kashline bore down on Drawn N Drank on the run in.
However, the line came a few yards to soon and Kashline couldn’t quite get up.

Hopefully one or two of you made a little on the EW suggestion, to offset loses on the Troytown.

In the novice hurdle, Thynetocathcer appeared to run a decent race. She was in second place rounding the home turn – but back in fifth as the runners re-appeared from the gloom on the run in.

It looked as if Wing Tips was never able to mount a serous challenge – but visibility was so bad, it was difficult to be sure !

Don Cossack recorded a facile victory in the maiden hurdle – though it told us very little, with him ending up only having one serious rival to beat. His next race will hopefully be a little more informative.

Finally, Alderwood rather bizarrely slipped up on the run, in the novice chase.
In truth he looked held at the time – though in conditions like today’s you can never be completely sure until they have crossed the line…

So, a disappointing return from the mini-break, with just over 5 points dropped since Friday.

The more frustrating aspect for me, is that it could have been 5 points profit, if I had made the right calls.

The consolation, I guess, is that I am still reading the races fine – it’s just the final crystallisation of the tips, that is letting me down (though in fairness, that is often the hardest part).

Rest assured though, I’ll be doing my level best to get things back on an even keel before the month draws to a close on Friday…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 25th

With the abandonment of both Towcester and Exeter, we are only left with racing at Navan, in southern Ireland, today…

The track hosts its feature race of the season, the Troytown chase, which has, as always, attracted a fiercely competitive field.

The going at the County Meath track, is likely to ride somewhere between heavy and untraceable – so an ability to handle bottomless conditions will be an absolute must.

I also think that lighter weights will be favoured in the big race (but then again, I thought that yesterday at Haydock !), so I have focused my attention on the bottom half of the handicap.

Working through the race, I came up with a short list of 4: Jadanli, Romanesco, The Hard Hat and Zardsky.

Cleary, 4 is a bit too many to tip in one race, so I had to trim it down. Unlike yesterday, I hope I’ve made the right calls today…

2:25

The first horse to catch my eye, was Jadanli – and If I’m honest, my original intention was to make him my sole selection in the race – EW.

However, whilst I’m not prepared to drop him completely, I have to acknowledge that he is getting on a bit in years and might not now be the horse he once was. Consequently it seemed prudent to have a second bite of the cherry…

Anyway, on to the case for Jadanli.

I still vividly recall him wining the Grade 1 Power Gold cup at the Fairyhouse Easter festival, back in 2010. The thing about that race, was that it was run is desperate conditions – and whilst Jadanli clearly wasn’t the best horse in the race, he relished the conditions and won by a country mile.

In truth, he has never hit those heights since, however, he did run a most encouraging race in the Thystes chase at Gowran last January. That race was also run on very heavy ground – and seemed to re-enforce the belief that Jadalnli is a much better horse in very deep conditions.

Jadanli has only run once since that race, when making his seasonal debut at Limerick earlier this month. With that run under his belt, and with conditions he will relish more than almost every runner in the field, I feel he had to be worth a play.

The second horse I’ve chosen to get onside is Zardsky,

Despite only being 6, he already had a fair amount of experience in the pointing field, prior to making the switch to racing under rules, earlier this year…

I think it is fair to assume that he is still progressive  -  there has certainly been improvement in each of his recent runs.

Last time out, he finished a creditable fourth in the Cork Grand National, leading until the home turn and then weakening up the stright.

Today’s contest is over half a mile further, which should suit Zardsky much better.

As with Jadanli, I see him as a horse with a chance that is a fair bit better than the betting suggests.

A quick mention for the 2 that I let through the net:

Romanesco has been a revelation this season: he should really be coming here on the back of a 3 timer – but he took an unlucky fall at the last, at Cheltenham, on his penultimate outing.

He made up for that by taking a competitive race at Fakenham and is only 6lb higher today. He should handle the ground – and has Ruby on top – he looks a worthy favourite to me…

The other one I was interested in was The Hard Hat.

He was a progressive stayer last season and I think he will be well suited to toady’s test. However, he was a fair way behind Zardsky on his seasonal debut at Galway – and there is no obvious reason why he should turn the tables today…

0.5pt win Jadanli 25/1

0.5pt win Zardsky 16/1

  

In the opener on the card, I can’t believe that Kashline can be backed at 20/1…

Clearly, I could never tip a horse like him as there is too much guesswork involved – but if I could, I would be very tempted (though maybe EW !).

The race doesn’t look overly strong and he has very decent PTP form. I also think it very significant that he made his debut under rules in a hot bumper at the Punchestown festival.

He finished well beaten that day, but was sent of 5/1 third favourite - suggesting that connections thought him capable of going close…

Just short of 3 miles, in heavy ground today, looks a far mote suitable test – and I really think he is a very good bet at the price (but not a tip !).

In the following novice hurdle, I think Wingtips will go very close – but there isn’t a great deal of margin in a price of 4/1.

One with more margin in the price, is Thynetocatcher. She will be suited by the trip; should handle the ground – and gets a very useful mares allowance. 25/1 about her chances, is too big…

It will be interesting to see whether Don Cossack can justify his sky-high reputation in the maiden hurdle at 1:25.

I would expect his to do so but he is not a betting proposition at 1/3 – particularly with a few interesting sorts in against him…

Finally, I expected to see Alderwood priced up as favourite for the novice chase at 2:55…

He progressed into a top class novice hurdler last season and – provided he is ready to do himself justice first time out – I would expect him to be a bit too quick for his rivals, over today’s trip…

Here’s hoping for a good day !

TVB.

Review of the day

Not the best of days…

I’ve spoken before about how tricky some of these borderline calls are to make – and they certainly came home to haunt us this afternoon.

Still, it was the first significant reversal we’ve had for a few weeks – so maybe we were due one !!

Anyway, a quick run through the performances of the days tips…

I was disappointed by the run of the main bet of the day, Lady Kathleen, as I’m sure she is better than that…

It’s difficult to know where exactly the problem lay. The ground at Ascot was a little softer than I expected so maybe that didn’t help; she also suffered a lot of kick back on her journey round.

Personally, I’d be inclined to forgive the run – but then again, I do have that kind of nature…!

Next up at Ascot, Ghizao ran a very good race in the Amlin chase – but unfortunately for him Captain Chris ran even better !

At his peak, Captain Chris is a serious horse –and he looked back to his very best this afternoon. In the circumstance, Ghizao lost little in finishing third (he was just pipped on the line by For Non Stop, for the runners up position).

Elsewhere at Ascot, Balbriggen ran a decent ram but was no match for Lord Tomnoddy: whist Oscar Whiskey absolutely cantered up in the Coral hurdle.

Pepite Rose was disappointing in the 2 mile handicap chase – which I was at least one borderline call that I did get right !!

Over at Haydock:

I managed to whittle the 2:00 down to the right 4 horses – but I was wrong to dismiss the 2 highest in the weights.

Ultimately it was Quartz De Thaix who followed up his Bangor victory at the expense of Universal Solidier. I thought he would struggle with the heavy ground - but that wasn’t the case and he was just as impressive as he had been at Bangor…
Lie Forrit was never travelling in the race and was beaten long way from home. He couldn’t be supported in the immediate future…

As if to emphasise the point that weight was no burden at Haydock this afternoon, Trustan Times powered home in the fixed brush hurdle race. It really was an impressive performance under a welter burden.

Sivola De Sivola was backed into a very short priced favourite – but did well to plug on into third position after being under pressure for the last mile of the race; whilst American Spin was very disappointing and dropped away round the home turn, after having helped make the early pace.

Finally from a tipping perspective, Nenuphar Collonges was probably pulled up in the last – which I guess wasn’t a huge surprise.

I did actually hold out quite a lot of hope for him for over a circuit, as he seemed to be travelling well.
However, he started to struggle down the back straight second time round and soon that was that.

The race was won by Monsieur Cadou, whom I planned to tip last night.

However, I was ’talked’ out of him this morning – which was a little bit irritating.

Maybe a few of you kept the faith regardless – but then again…

To complete things, Yesyoucan was a bit of a surprise winner of the 12:55 race.

He was maybe a little lucky to hold off the late challenge of Black Thunder – but they pay on the line.

Whilst Silviniaco Conti was a good winner of the Betfair chase. He jumped well and stayed well – and Long Run never really looked like getting to him.

I dare say Long Run will come on for the run – but he is still not looking to me like the horse that was so dominate the season before last…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 24th

Only two domestic NH meetings survived the weather today – but both Ascot and Haydock are cracking cards, with a little bit of something for everyone…

There is also a meeting at Gowran Park in Ireland – but aside from the feature race, there is not a lot to get excited about there…

I’ve ended up tipping in 5 races today, which is quite a lot (certainly by this weeks standards !). However, I felt the races were there to be tipped in – and I could quite easily have tipped twice as many horse !

Let’s hope I got those judgement calls right – starting with the big bet of the day at Ascot…

1:40

My dilemma with Lady Kathleen, was not whether or not to tip – just how many points to have on her!

She was always going to be a tip – and quite a strong one at that. However I had to balance my strength of feeling for her against the fact that she takes on 15 opponents today – many of them unexposed.

I’ve decided on the hedge bet route, that I’ve taken a few times already: the majority of the bet to win – with a place saver in case things don’t go quite to plan…

Lady Kathleen is a mare whom I’ve been watching closely since her victory at Ludlow last December.

She was very impressive in victory that day (on which form she comfortable holds today’s top weight Florafern) and looked likely to go on from that win.
However, things haven’t gone right for her since that day…

Next time out, she fell when looking likely to win a poor contest at Plumpton; and then on her final outing of the campaign at Newbury, she probably found the quick ground against her.

She reappeared at Wetherby 3 weeks ago and was a massive eye-catcher that day. Held up at the back of the field, she made ground very easily into the home straight, before lack of fitness put pay to her challenge.

She was allowed to come home in her own time that day – and eventually finished well beaten. However, that run demonstrated to me that she retains all of her ability – and is on a handicap mark which she can win off.

The trip and ground should be perfect for her today – and I fully expect her to run a massive race.

The only really doubt, is her 15 opponents ! One or two of them are sufficiently unexposed, that they may have plenty in hand of the handicapper. However, I think they will need to is if they are going to fend off Lady Kathleen today ;)

1pt win 0.5pt place Lady Kathleen 12/1

2:10

The size of the field for the Amlin chase may be disappointing – but the quality of the field certainly isn’t…

Victory for any of the 4 runners would come as no surprise and therefore I feel the prudent option is a small play on the outsider of the quartet…

That horse is the Paul Nichols trained Ghizao, who made a wining seasonal reappearance at Kempton, just under 3 weeks ago.

His victory that day was very much expected – and he ultimately only beat 1 rival. However he jumped round very nicely and won precisely as he ought to have done – so there were only positives to take out of the race…

A couple of seasons ago, Ghizao and Finians Rainbow were very closely matched as novice chasers.

Finians was provably the slightly better of the 2 – but there was never that much in it.

Today he has to give 4lb and race fitness to his slightly younger rival. If this race had taken place during their novice campaign, there certainly wouldn’t have been the disparity in odds that there is today.

Ofcourse, the reason for that is last season: when Finians Rainbow build on his novice promise and ultimately became champion 2 mile chaser; whilst Ghizao went backwards…

However if we assume that all was not right with Ghizao last year – then things get to look a little more interesting…

Ofcourse this isn’t just a 2 horse race and victory for either Captain Chris or For Non Stop, would not come as a surprise.

However the jumping of the former went completely last season and I would like to see him jump a fence in public before supporting him this season; whilst For No Stop still has a lot to prove at the highest level – despite his breathtaking comeback win…

On balance then, Ghizao is the ‘value’ call at 10/1 – though I won’t be too surprised whatever the outcome…

Very much a race to savour….

0.5pt win Ghizao 10/1

In the Coral hurdle, Oscar Whisky is a shade of odds on – but I think that is about right…

He is a class hurdler and 2m4f is his trip. He has tactical speed and runs well enough when fresh – in short, I think he will take some beating however the race unfolds…

There is a very interesting 2 mile chase at 3:20…

There is likely to be a lot of pace in the race and, to an extent, the result will very much depend on how things pan out in-running.

That said, I think Petite Rose should take the beating – though I will be very interested to watch the performances of Champion Court and Toubab, to name but two…

Finally at Ascot, I think Balbriggen will take some beating in the novice handicap chase at 1:10.
He may not have beaten much on his chasing debut at Bangor, but I was impressed by his style. A mark of 115 for his handicap debut looks very fair to me – but I guess time will tell…

Over at Haydock, there are a number of very competitive handicaps – plus the grade 1 Betfair chase.

The ground is likely to be extremely testing and whatever wins will certainly know it has had a race…

2:00

Despite the 11 runners, I will be a little surprised if the winner of this race doesn’t come from the first 4 in the betting…

Despite winning for us last time out, Quartz de Thaix would be the first one of those 4 that I would eliminate. A 9lb rise for his Bangor victory was fair enough but it means that he gets to carry 11st12lb on heavy ground today – which is a big ask..

For similar reasons, the next to go would be Universal Soldier. He adores the mud – and will always be dangerous when the going gets heavy. But he has a very big weight today, on his seasonal debut…

That just leaves Dashing George and Lie Forrit – and it basically comes down to a choice between current form and proven class.

Rightly or wrongly, I’ve gone for the latter…

Lie Forrit is a 148 rated hurdler (has been as high at 155) who loves soft ground. So with underfoot conditions ideal for him today – he is going to take some stopping off a mark of 130, provided he jumps OK.

In fairness, his jumping has never been too bad – he just hasn’t yet had opportunity to reach the same heights over fences as he has done over hurdles.

He was also a little disappointing on his seasonal debut –and his stable is currently in the best of form – so he does come with risks, but pretty big positives as well…

Dashing George is a decent and honest horse – but he doesn’t possess the class of Lie Forrit. He ran well on his seasonal debut - but in receipt of just 11lbs, I have to make Lie Forrit the call…

0.5pt win Lie Forrit 5/1

2:30

I would have been very keen indeed on American Spin today – if connections had opted to put a conditional jockey on board…

Their loyalty to Jamie Moore is commendable  - and I hope they get rewarded for it – but in today’s ground a few pounds off his back might have made all of the difference…

Despite being 8 years old, American Spin strikes me as a horse still very much on the up…

He was an excellent second to Cape Tribulation at last season’s Grand National meeting and then followed that up with a tremendously gutsy win over today’s course and distance, in May.

He made a very promising seasonal debut at the Cheltenham October meeting, that suggested the progression from last season was going to continue into this one…

The key to American Spin is soft ground – and he will certainly get that today.

Furthermore, he has already shown himself over both today’s course and distance.

As I said, my only really concern with him is the burden of 11st11lb that he will have to lug round today…

If he is to be beaten, then I think Sivola De Sivola is most likely to take advantage…

He carries 8lb less than American Spin today – and has similar form and a progressive profile.

Unfortunately, he is a third of the price and so can only be put up as a saver…

There are some seriously unknown quantities in the race: the likes of Barafundle; Kinghts Pass – and the 2 French imports, Katenko and Katkeau. All 4 of these are possible winners…

However, based on what we know for certain, American Spin and Sivola De Sivola should both go very close today…

0.75pt win American Spin 14/1

0.25pt win Sivola De Sivola 6/1

3:40

This is a hell of a race to try and unravel !!

Last night, I was planning a ‘proper’ tip on Monsieur Cadou – but I was worried about Bellflower Boy as a danger…

However, the more I looked at the race, the more potential winners I could see…

It is going to be an extreme test and I’m sure there won’t be many finishers – but trying to predict which they will be is a very tricky matter.

Outside the 2 already mentioned, I could honestly see another half dozen, for whom victory wouldn’t be a major surprise…

Consequently, at the odds on offer (8/1 and 10/1) I had to leave those 2 alone…

One I simply couldn’t leave alone, however was Nenuphar Collonges…

Now I must say at this point, he is far more likely to tail off and pull up than he is to win, but…

If he did come back to form today, he would be absolutely thrown in…

He is running off a mark over 20lb below his peak - and will have perfect conditions.

He has also regularly shown himself capable of running very well when fresh.

The icing on the cake for me however, was the fact that Sam Thomas gone to Haydock for just the one ride – over 3m4f  in the gathering gloom…

At 33/1 I simply had to have a small wager on the fact that Sam hasn’t completely lost him marbles !!

0.25pt win Nenuphar Collognes 33/1

Earlier on the card, there is a very interesting handicap hurdle being run at 12:55…

There are at least 5 potentially very well handicapped horses running in it – and I’ll be surprised if the form doesn’t stand up throughout the season…

The one I was most interested in, was Il De Roi. If he can translate his flat form back over the jumps, he could well hack up (despite the competitive nature of the race) – but I also have a few nagging doubts about him.

On balance then, he was easy enough to pass on a t 3/1 – but I’m not prepared to find something to beat him.

Finally, Long Run looks a massive price at 7/4 based on his victory in the 2011 Gold Cup – but I won’t be backing him…

In fact, I won’t be backing anything in the field as I simply can’t find a satisfactory angle into the race.

The problem is the going. With it likely to be riding bottomless, whatever wins today is likely to know it has been in a battle – and may well leave the rest of it’s season behind.
For that reason, it is difficult to support Long Run, Silviano Conti and The Giant Bolster – all of whom are likely to have bigger targets in the rest of the season, which  leaves Weird Al and Cannington Brook. However, neither of those two should really be able to beat the other 3…

On balance then, another race where it makes more sense to be a viewer than a bettor…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Race review

Carrickboy ran a fair race this afternoon, but could ultimately only finish fourth.

It looked to me as if he probably needed the run – but there is also a chance that he didn’t quite get home.

He’ll be interesting next time out…

Loch Ba also ran very well – but he couldn’t quite peg back the rejuvenated The Rainbow Hunter.

The Rainbow Hunter has been a good horse in the past – but his jumping has often let him down. Today however, he was nearly foot perfect – and reaped the dividend for it…

Elsewhere on the Ascot card:

Many Clouds was successful in the first, running down long time leader, Fergall, after the final obstacle.
The Potting Shed ran on way too late in the day and might benefit from a step up to 3 miles…

Arthurian Legend ran a reasonable race in the novice chase – but was no match Minella Class.

The latter was a bit hesitant over his obstacles but gradually warmed to his task and ultimately won quite easily…

Lordofthehouse didn’t get away on terms in the novice hurdle – and, not too surprisingly – could never get to grips with Close Touch.

Lordofthehouse has plenty of ability – but even more attitude and that is going to make him a horse probably best avoided...

Vino Griego ran a tremendous race in the handicap chase – not showing any signs of an unwillingness to battle. Clearly someone expected that to be the case, as he was backed down from 20/1 last night and 12/1 this morning, into an SP of 13/2.

And I thought horses couldn’t read ;)

Ultimately though, he was out-battled by Ackertac, who showed good resolution to ultimately win reasonably comfortably.

In the finale, the Henderson Stable clearly wanted Petite Robin to win – and he did so. It looked in a little doubt throughout the final furlong, as his stable companion, First in the Queue, made a sustained challenge. However Petite Robin has enough in reserve and held him off by half a length…

Over at Haydock, Doctor David travelled nicely to the second last – but then stopped as if shot. He eventually plodded over the line in last place.
It was a sad sight to see – and clearly the old boy is not the force he once was…

In the novice chase, Poungach got the better of a prolonged duel with Super Duty,  with Saffron De Cotte a long way back in third place. The first two both look decent performers and provided the race hasn’t taken to much out of them, they should go on from this.

Finally, Clondaw Kaempfer got the better of a similar battle with Lienosus in the novice hurdle; whilst Gevrey Chamberton edged out Corrin Wood in a thriller.

Generally, I feel I was close enough with my reading of the races to make me think that the mini break hasn’t had a major impact on my judgement…

Though I guess tomorrow will be the real test…!

TVB.