Sunday, 28 April 2013

2012-13 TVB Season summary

I’ve managed to find a little time to produce a final post, to wrap up the 2012-13 TVB season…

First of all, the headline figures for the entire season:

TVB tips

Total staked: 111.5pts
Total profit: 33.5pts
ROI: 30%

Adjusted figures

Total staked: 111.5pts
Total profit: 70.3pts
ROI: 63%

*The adjusted figure assumes that all bets are layed off at 2 IR to produce the same profit regardless of whether the horse wins the race

In summary, a 30% return would have been achieved if you had backed all selections at advised odds, to advised stakes.

The adjusted profit figure attempts to strip out an element of the luck (both good and bad) and it’s superior returns, suggest that luck wasn’t really with us for a large chunk of the season (which is certainly how it felt !)

It is also interesting to note that if all of the selections had simply been backed at Betfair SP, the returns for the season would have been just over 35pts profit.
This does beg the question as to why I bother quoting prices - and why we all scurry around trying to get them !
However, this figure is skewed by the BSP of some of the longer priced horses – in particular Jadanli. The bulk of the selections returned with a lower BSP than the price advised (which is what I would expect).
It does though, flag the very valid point that Betfair will often yield greater returns on the longer priced horses (generally those priced at 20/1+).

Anyway, some more numbers for you…
There were a total of 183 tips across the season, meaning that as only 111.5pts were staked, the average stake size was little more than 0.5pt. This is definitely an area that I need to address, as my staking gave me too little room for manoeuvre (the weaker selections end up being staked similarly to the stronger ones).
The breakdown of placings for the 183 tips was as follows:

First – 22
Second – 23
Third – 19
Fourth - 21

These are quite pleasing numbers, as they mean that just under 25% of the tips finished first or second – which is bang in line with my target.
Just under 50% finished in the first 4 – which again, is were I aim to be…

The biggest draw down from a peak, at any point during the season, was 16.5 pts, which occurred at the end of the season.
Obviously, you want the draw downs to be as small as possible, as they affect confidence. That said, 16.5pts is not a massive amount on a service which is as potentially volatile as TVB !
Ofcourse, the draw downs can be reduced further if the practise of laying IR is adopted – though that is an individual decision…

In terms of stables, it was the relatively small operations that served us best this year, particularly those of Tom Symonds, Mick Channon and Kevin Bishop.
We also managed to secure a profit out of Venetia – which was nice after last seasons debacle !
This year, the stable that cost us most was that of Nigel Twiston Davies – though neither Kim Bailey nor Emma Lavelle covered themselves in glory.
I’ll be looking for better from all 3, next season ;)

On the equine front, then from the 183 tips, 16 horses were tipped twice – and 3, three times: Cootamundra, Captain Sunshine and Quart de Thaix.

And that, leads me into a very interesting area…

As you all know, what I try to do during the season (apart from simply making a profit by finding winners !), is latch on to horses who are ready to win.
They might not all win when I tip them (as you will doubtless have noticed), but often, their time is not far away.

Unfortunately, I was unable to tip at either of the seasons two big festivals: Cheltenham or Aintree. However, I hope that a few of you kept faith with the horses I’d tipped earlier in the season and followed them again at the big meetings.

36 of the horses that I had previously tipped during the season, ran at Cheltenham or Aintree (or both).
Between them, they ran 48 times – and managed 4 wins, 4 seconds and 2 thirds.

There appears nothing particularly remarkable about those numbers – until you look at the SPs of the ex TVB tips that were placed…
The winners returned at 66/1, 50/1, 28/1 and 16/1.
The runners up returned at 16/1, 16/1, 11/1 and 11/1
The thirds returned at 40/1 and 14/1

And that was the SPs !
I’m sure that most of them were available at bigger prices in the morning – and the BSPs were doubtless bigger as well.

However, even at SP – if you had put 1pt win on all ex TVB tips when they ran at either of the 2 big NH festivals, you would have made 116pts on 48pts staked !
Certainly food for thought for next season….

Talking of which, that is the next time that most of you will hear from me…
I will be busying myself with other activities during the summer months – but plan to return in October to kick off the new TVB season on November 1st.

Provided I can get myself organised, there will be a proper TVB website rather than a public blog.
This means that only subscribers will be able to access all of my output throughout the season.
I will contact all existing subscribers during October and find out which of you want to subscribe for the new season.
I plan to limit my membership to 50, with any spare places hopefully being filled by people who have already expressed an interest and are currently on my waiting list.

I’m optimistic that the 2013-14 season will be the best one yet.
I feel that I learnt a lot during the 2012-13 season – and I have a number of improvements already planned for the service.

I hope that everyone has a really great summer – and I’ll look forward to the winter months descending on us ;) 

Until then…


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