Daily write-up - Nov 4th

It’s back to the mundane today, after the quality fayre of yesterday…

2 domestic meetings at Carlisle and Huntingdon – plus it’s Cork National day, over in Ireland…

I was half tempted by a couple at Carlisle:

In the conditional chase at 2:40, I reckon that last years winner, Mr Moonshine, could take some pegging back.

He won the race without a penalty, last year – but that victory sees him penalised for this years contest ! However, even with that riposte – which means that he is the joint worse in on official handicap ratings - I think he is the one to beat.

He had a very nice pipe opener over hurdles at Wetherby recently and if he gets an uncontested lead today (which is highly likely), he will not be easy to pass.

The biggest danger by far, is Rival D’Estruval, who is best in at the weights and was an impressive winner last time out. However, he has been priced up at 11/8; whereas Mr Moonshine was a 9/2 shot last night (4/1 this morning).

Like I say, I was tempted – but I decided against. Let’s hope I don’t rue that decision !!

Half an hour later, Valley View looks quite interesting in the long distance chase. He was very progressive last season and it strikes me as significant that AP McCoy – complete with nasty facial injury – travels all the way up to Carlisle, for just one ride.

On the flip side however, Valley View is not guaranteed to get the trip; is making his seasonal debut; has a number of potentially progressive rivals to overcome – and has been put in at 4/1.

He was easier to pass on, than Mr Moonshine !!

There are also a couple of interesting races - or at least interesting horses – at Huntingdon…

In the novice chase at 1:15, Attaglance should really take all the beating – provided he can show that his debut outing over fences – where he showed little and was eventually pulled up – was just a blip.

Last season, he was a winner over hurdles at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, ending the campaign with a mark of 155. That is nearly 20lb above the mark Hildisvini has over hurdles  - and yet that one has to give him 7lb today.

Clearly there is big difference between jumping hurdles and jumping fences – but all the same.

A best price of 5/1 would be an absolute steal, if you knew he was going to jump round and show his hurdles form. He is still quite tempting, even with that risk…

In the handicap chase at 2:20, Benny the Swinger has some appeal off bottom weight.

He showed very little for Henrietta Knight last season, but if the switch to the stable of Chris Gordon has worked the oracle, he will take the world of beating off a mark of 68.

However, I would be a little happier if he was running over further (particularly at a quick track like Huntingdon) and there is little margin in a quote of 5/1.

All in all, I will be disappointed if at least 1 of the above 4 doesn’t oblige today  - and backing them all at best prices would see you make a slight profit… Obviously, if more than 1 of them wins…!!

On balance though, I’ve decided to let them all go and focus instead on the Cork National.

Clearly this is a much trickier race to fathom (!) – but I’m hoping that I’ve picked up on a couple of form lines that will prove key to the race.

The first is last seasons contest. That was ultimately won quite comfortably by the Bishop Looney. He had been carefully prepared for the race last season – and it looks to me as if connections have done the same this season. My 2 concerns with him are that he is 6lb higher in the handicap today (that won’t make things impossible for him – but it won’t help either); and his regular partner, Tom Doyle is not on board (he may well have contractual commitments to the stable of Jim Culloty). For those reasons, I am making him a saver, rather than the main bet…

That honour goes to For a Finish. He finished 17 lengths behind The Bishop Looney in last years race, but gets an 11lb pull in the weight s today.

For a Finish has only run twice since that race, but the second of those outings, looks to be the other key race, when assessing this years contest.

That was this years Munster National, which was won by Raz De Maree. Raz De Maree won that race well, but gets a 9lb hike in the ratings as a result, which will make like much tougher for him today.

For a Finish was fifth in that race, but turning for home, he looked the most likely winner. Bearing in mind it was only his second run after a long layoff, I think he can come on again for that run and reverse the form with Raz De Maree today.

The Bishop Looney finished a fair way back in that race as well, but I’m sure that was a prep for him for today, so I would certainly expect him to leave that running behind.

The nature of the race means that there are plenty of other dangers. However, at the prices available, I think For a Finish and The Bishop Looney give us a very strong hand in the race, with preference for the former.

For a Finish 0.75pt win 18/1

The Bishop Looney 0.25pt win 14/1

Review of the day

I think it is fair to say that today wasn’t the best of days…

3 losing tips is never going to be good – but in truth non of the 3 every looked likely to win…

Nampour chased a suicidal pace in the handicap hurdle – and was soon paying the price.

Raya Star showed again that there is no substitute for class in a handicap - it will be interesting to see just how far he can go this season…

There were a number of eye-catching performances – the most notable probably being Claret Cloak. He will certainly take some beating next time, if in a similar race…

At Wetherby, Cape Tribulation was hugely disappointing – as too was Smad Place.

In fact there were both so disappointing, I couldn’t help wonder if their demise had been caused by the path they too through the race…

Both horses raced close to the rails, whereas the eventual winner and runner up, raced much wider on the course.

The ground could well have been riding quicker in the middle of the track because without that explanation, it is a bit difficult to rationalise the performance of the runner-up, Crack away Jack.

Without wishing to take anything away from the winner, Tidal Bay, my feeling is that this form can be ignored…

The final tip of the day (Petara Bay was a non-runner) was Planet of Sound.

However, he (and indeed the rest of the Charlie Hall field) were no match for Silviano Conti, who romped home, looking the real deal.

Ofcourse it is still early days, but it will be interesting to see how he fares during the rest of the season.

Elsewhere on  the respective Ascot and Wetherby cards:

Hadrian’s Approach just got he better of Druids Nephew, to win a thrilling novice chase at Ascot. The form looks strong and the winner’s attitude had to be admired.

My Tent or Yours was a mighty impressive winner of the novice hurdle – and if I’m honest, I think we might have been saved half a point there, as I doubt Petara Bay would have been able to match that performance.
The way the winner travelled through the race was most taking – and off a stronger pace, I think he could be even better.

The real irritation of the day, was watching Roberto Goldback hack up in the United House chase.

As I sad in my email, I felt there was a distinct possibility he would be up to wining today. The trouble was, I’d got my mind set on Ace High, until I saw his price – and then I couldn’t bring myself to tip against him.

In the 2 mile chase, neither Falcon Island nor Doctor David, figured.

Falcon Island ran a most peculiar race – struggling out the back and then finishing with a flourish.

However, he never got near the winner Gus Macrea, who beat him much less emphatically last week and was worse off at the weights today.

At Wetherby, Loordofthehouse nearly refused to race. But he eventually decided to do so – then made up ground quickly, before powering clear.
He clearly has an engine – but he has some serious temperament issues as well and as such could never be a serious betting proposition…

Une Artiste won the battle of the mares – where She Ranks Me ran very well to split the ‘big 3’.

Finally, over at Down Royal, Kauto Stone came good in the JN wine Champion chase.

Full credit to pricewise for putting him up. I backed the horse a few times last season – but had pretty much given up on him.

It is debatable whether he’ll be able to build on today’s performance – but it certainly wasn’t a bad way for him to start his season !!

So all in all, a disappointing day.
That said, it only resulted in a 3 point loss – something that would have been trivial, if Monastrell had hung on yesterday…

And I thought I was over that :(

TVB.

Daliy write-up - Nov 3rd

An absolutely cracking days racing, with top class cards at Ascot, Wetherby and Down Royal (I dare say that the one at Ayr is OK aswell – I’ve just not had time to check it out !).

I’ve got so much to say, it’s difficult to know where to begin ! So what I’ll do, is work my way through the cards, race by race, offering advice on each race that I have a view on – and obviously, high-lighting the tips for the day…

Starting with Ascot:

When I first looked at his card, yesterday lunchtime, I was taken aback by the quality !

The wet summer has a lot to answer for – but getting all the decent jumpers back on the track by the beginning of  November, is a definite plus !

I don’t have a strong view on the novice handicap hurdle that opens the card.

There are 16 runners and victory for any of them would not come as a complete surprise.

It was easy enough to pass on the race…

The novice chase, due off at 1:25 looks an absolute cracker – and is close to the race of the day, in my book !

I did think I might have a tip in it, as I expected Ballypatrick to be put in much bigger than the best price of 12/1. If he had been double that price, I would have been tempted by a speculative wager – but at those odds, I’ll have to watch him.

Of the others, Act of Kalanisi, Hadrian’s Approach, Swincombe Flame, Rolling Aces and The Druids Nephew, could all turn out to be high class chasers – and I haven’t given up on Handy Andy, just yet.

All in all, a race to savour – but probably not to bet in…

The first tip of the day, comes in the 2:00 race, in the form of Petara Bay…

He is a very decent flat racer, who has reached a rating high of 108 on the level and is still rated 103 in that discipline (and ran to close to that mark as recently as August).

He made his hurdling debut earlier this week, jumping proficiently and even looking as if he might win, at one point.

With that run under his belt, he will be sharper today – and I really struggle to see why he has been put in at such a big price…

There is very little between him and Chiberta King, on the level – and yet that one has been priced up at 7/1, despite having no hurdling experience.

The 2 that head the market, My Tent or Yours and Taquin Du Soleil, are both totally unexposed and have the potential to be anything.

However, they have proved very little (just 1 hurdle victory between them) and have been put in very short.

There is little doubt in my mind, that Petara Bay is worth a small bet to cause an upset.

0.5pt win Petara Bay win 25/1

I could be very keen on Nampour in the handicap hurdle – if it weren’t such a strong race…

The top 2 in the handicap are virtual grade performers – and it is always risky to oppose those types in handicaps; whilst there are a handful of runners who have the potential to be much better than their current mark (It’s a Gimme, Ted Spread, Claret Cloak and Il De Re, to name but 4). Additionally, you have War Singer and Cape Express, who are currently at the top of their game.

One thing’s for sure, the race will take some wining –and there will be plenty of future winners come out of it.

Despite this, I am happy to tip Nampour, who was a massive eye-catcher last time out – and amazingly, has been dropped a pound for that run.

The race in question, was at Aintree, last weekend and Nampour tanked his way through that contest until seemingly blowing up in the final half mile.

He was ultimately comfortably beaten by Cape Express that day – but I suspect there might be a different outcome today.

Certainly, if Nampour has come on for the run, I think he has to go very close- though obviously, confidence is limited a little by the strength of today’s opposition.

0.5pt EW Nampour 20/1

I did expect to be tipping Ace High in the United House Gold cup. He ran really well last time out at Chepstow, looking as if he would take all the beating with that run under his belt.

However, a quote of 5/1 this morning is tight in such a competitive race.

It’s not difficult to make a case for at least half a dozen others in the race –the most interesting of whom might be Roberto Goldback. If he improves for the switch to Nicky Henderson, he could well be up to taking this prize.

Again. I expected to be tipping in the Byrne Group handicap chase today – but the prices on offer on the two I am interested in, just weren’t where I wanted them to be…

The first is Falcon Island, who was a pre-season selection, last weekend. He ran a cracker that day and if he has come on for that run, he will go close today.

The other is more speculative (and so I thought I might get a price – but no !).

Doctor David is a horse I love – and I know he runs well fresh. However, 12/1 almost assumes he will be in top condition today – which is not guaranteed.

Both horses were close to being small bets last night – but at the odds on offer, I couldn’t quite justify either.

I’ve also got a concern over how the race will be run. There is an abundance of pace – and jockeyship/luck is bound to play a part in the outcome.

If either horse drifts significantly before the off, I might have a small interest-  but otherwise, it will be a watching brief.

Over at Wetherby:

It is a shame to see that Overturn will be missing his intended chasing debut in the opening contest. I guess there will be other days for him.

In the second, Lordofthehouse could be an interesting debutant over hurdles – assuming he consents to jump off !
The listed mares hurdle looks a 3 cornered affair. You pays your money, you makes your choice (mine would be Baby Shine).

And then we come on to the main events…

The John Smiths hurdle looks to me, to rest between Smad Place and Cape Tribulation.

There is nothing between the pair on official ratings and whilst, as the younger horse it is reasonable to think that Smad Place might have the greater scope for improvement, Cape Tribulation has improved significantly over the past year –and there is no reason to think that has stopped yet.

The other thing that swings me in favour of Cape Tribulation (apart from the price ! ) is that he is guaranteed to be race fit, having run well in a decent flat handicap at York, just last month.

Of the others, Tidal Bay looks to have a theoretical chance, but I’m happy enough to take him on; whilst Fair Along, game though he is, is unlikely to repeat his victory of 2010 in this race. He finished runner up last year – beaten out of sight by Restless Harry and if there is to be an upset today, I think restless Harry is most likely to cause it. However, he faces much stronger opposition this year – and also has a penalty to carry for last year’s victory.

1pt win Cape Tribulation 7/2

Whatever way you look at it, Silviano Conti simply has to be taken on in the Charlie Hall chase, at a best price of 6/4.

He has been priced up so short, primarily on hype – with some potential thrown in. With Kauto Star now retired, there is almost a desperation to find a new flag barer for Paul Nicholls – and Silviano Conti is the current number 1 contender for that roll.

However, he just doesn’t have the form to suggest he will reach those kind of heights and whilst he does still have a fair bit of potential, I’m more than happy to take him on at the current prices.

That said, the options for taking him on this particular race, are quite limited and Planet of Sound stands head and shoulders above the rest of his opposition.

He is a horse who runs his best races fresh and first time out last season, he ran a screamer to be touched off in the Hennessey Gold cup. He then ran third in the Racing Post chase before running unplaced in the Grand National.

On paper, that was his poorest run of the season  - but those who saw it are unlikely to forget the way he took on the National fences, reminiscent of the mighty Crisp, until just running out of stamina over the final few obstacles.

The trip will hold no fears today – and the fact he receives weight from most of the field is a bonus.

If the ground was just a bit quicker, he would be a 2 point bet – but with concern over how it will be riding (Overturn has been taken out of the first because it is too soft) I have reluctantly settled on just 1 point win

1pt win Planet of Sound 11/2

Just a quick mention for the Down Royal card – or more specifically the big race on that card, the JN wine Champion chase.

The outcome of this race is going to depend, to a large extent, on the state of the ground.

On decent ground, Sizing Europe will take the beating – though I could also see First Lieutenant and Follow the Plan running big races.

However, if the ground is on the soft side, then Quito De La Roque should be the one to beat – with Joncol possibly outrunning his odds.

However, with a lot of uncertainty – and a competitive field, it is another race where I would recommend viewing rather than betting…

Finally, I am thinking of restarting activity on Twitter…

As many of you will know, I’m not a huge fan of the medium (I don’t like the anonymity) – but I acknowledge that it does serve a purpose.

My plan is to go on there at lunchtimes and offer some views on any value avaialble at that point in the day. I would use the name TheValueBettor, rather than TVB.earlybird, which I was using previously…

Anyway, it is just an idea I have had – I’ll keep you posted on developments…!

Here’s hoping for a great day !

TVB.

Race review

Well, what can I say ?!?!?

Second tip of the season – and I’m back into my familiar role of glorious runner –up :(
But what a race Monastrell ran !

If I’m honest, half way through the morning, when he was all blue on oddschecker, I was berating myself for not having more on (I really did fancy him !); a couple of minutes before the off, as he drifted to 60 on BF, I was wondering why I had been so cavalier with the staking !
Oh the ups and downs of punting – and that was before the race had even begun !

In the race itself, Monastrell travelled like a dream under a brilliant ride from Andy Lynch.

He cruised round in second place and met every fence on a stride.

Even coming to the last, I thought he might hold off the challenge of Pires. But Pires had the moment and got up to beat him by a length. Gutted !

Still I guess it was a small profit on the day – rather that than a repeat of the humiliation associated with a big drifter that gets pulled up !!

It would have lovely for him to win though – it would have taken so much of the pressure off.

Still, these things are sent to test me – and boy am I used to being tested !!

Elsewhere, The money came for Bless the Wings in the big race at Wetherby (he went off clear favourite) and he duly battled home. I had a suspicion that connections were making a bit too much noise about him being ‘badly handicapped’.

Gansey also turned round the form from last time with Lease Lend to finish runner up.
This was definitely a race where it payed to look between the lines in the form book.

In the following race, Sametegal won comfortably enough. In truth though, it is difficult to know what he actually achieved – and I for one, won’t be getting overly carried away with the form…

Over at Uttoxeter, Rigadin De Beauchene ran a very good race to finish second (he must have thought I had tipped him ;) ). Furthermore, he could easily have gone one place better if he had not made a bad mistake at the third last.

He is very much one to bear in mind, next time out…

So there we have it. There can be little doubt, that the TVB journey for the season is now well and truly under-way !

Today should have reminded all of you who have subscribed, precisely why you did so !

There is rarely a dull moment in the world of TVB !!

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 2nd

As has been the case for most of this week; whilst today’s 2 domestic NH cards are interesting – finding winners at either looks a decidedly tricky proposition…

I was really hoping that I could find something in the big chase at Wetherby (off at 2:00) – but no matter which way I turn it, no solid selection will fall out !

If forced to stake my colours to the mast, I would say that Tiger O’Toole is the most likely winner.

A second season novice, he ran a tremendous race last time out, forcing the potentially top novice, Fingals Bay, to pull out all the stops at Chepstow. If he can build on that, he will take all the beating…

However, as a virtual novice, there is a danger that the fences – or the strength of opposition – will find him out. In truth, he is more likely to fall or capitulate, than he is to win – so at 5/1 he is opposable.

Nez Rouge is another interesting contender, as he could be anything.
He won his sole chase very easily but he beat little that day and it is a little concerning that his previous victory was in claiming hurdle.

I feel he has been priced up primarily on the reputation of his trainer and whilst he could win, odds of 11/2 make little appeal…

Lease Lend should be the solid one – if it weren’t for the fact that he might suffer from ‘the bounce’ ! He ran a cracking race last time out over course and distance and a repeat of that would see him go very close. However, that was his first race in 18 months - and there is always the danger that it will have sent him backwards rather than brought him on.

If that isn’t the case and he has progressed from that outing, he will take the beating…

Of the others: I could see Gansey running a big race – though he shouldn’t be able to beat Lease Lend. Battle Group could almost be considered a bet to nothing, as it is not difficult to see him coming there swinging up the home straight. However, it is very difficult to see him going through with his effort, so the chances of connecting on the win part of the bet would be pretty slim…

Bless the Wing is potentially interesting – particularly if there is money for him. In theory, he is not that well handicapped – but he is reasonably unexposed and could well have potential for improvement. If he is disputing favouritism at the off, he will go very close.

Darna is another intriguing runner – and one who could also go close, if he is right and the race goes to suit. He makes some appeal at 10/1 – but he is a risky proposition.

Similarly, Drever Route is potentially interesting at 14/1. However he has not seen a race course for almost 2 years, so his fitness would have to be taken on trust.

On balance however, I am happy to take a watching brief on what is a fascinating race but one that is ultimately just a bit too tricky to resolve.

In the following race, Ruby Walsh has his only ride of the day, on board Sametegal.

A winner at Engheim in his native France, it will be no surprise if he is too good for his rivals today – though his price will be prohibitive…

 

Over at Uttoxeter, I spent a little time looking at the handicap chase which will be off at 3:30.

The one that caught my eye, was Rigadin De Beauchene. He threatened to be a decent sort last season – when he got his jumping right ! I suspect that he might ultimately prove to be better than his current rating – and a quote of 9/1 is quite tempting.

However, I suspect he will be better with his first run of the season under his belt, so I’m going to pass on him today – but obviously watch him closely !

Aside from the domestic action, there is an excellent card at Down Royal in Northern Ireland.

I said in my introduction on the blog, that I would be looking to tip a little in Ireland this year.
I didn’t expect it to happen on day 2 – but when opportunity knocks…!

The race I have been drawn to, is the 2 mile handicap chase, which will be off at 3:40.

The market for this race, is headed by Pires, who was a comfortable winner last time out, when receiving a favourable mention on the blog.

He was quite impressive in victory that day – but the opposition didn’t amount to much and he has been hiked 13lb in the ratings for that victory.
I think he is beatable today – and the one I want to take him on with is Monastrell…

He was trained last season by Noel Meade but has switched into the care of David Christie this season.

On his seasonal debut at Ballinrobe a month ago, he travelled well until lack of fitness caught him out. That was slightly surprising as he has been at his best first time out in previous seasons. However, I’m hoping that the new training regime will see him peaking a race later this season !

Monastrell kept very good company last season, following his debut victory – but he didn’t manage to cut any ice at graded level. Back in handicaps today, I think it could be a different matter…

There are 2 reasons why Monastrell looks particularly interesting today: the first one can be found in the formbook.

On his seasonal debut at Naas last season, Monastrell won a decent novice chase in convincing fashion. The horse who finished eighth in that race – beaten 20 lengths – was non other that today’s favourite, Pires. Now I accept a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, but Monastrell is actually 4lb better off today, for that 20 length victory – and is a 25/1 shot against Pires at 5/2…

The second reason, is more based on guesswork, on my behalf…

Monastrell moved into joint ownership over the summer and his new owner is a Thomas McKnight. My guess is that Mr. McKnight is a citizen of Northern Ireland – hence moving the horse to David Christie, who is based out of County Fermanagh, in the North.

If that is the case (and I don’t know for sure, I’m just putting 2 and 2 together and hoping I get 4 !), then it would make sense for a Northern Irish trainer and a Northern Irish owner, to target at race at the biggest meeting run all year, in the country.

The booking of the top class Andy Lynch, for his only ride of the day, seems to add weight to my theory that this is a bit of a plot…

I guess we will see (or not !) in the fullness of time.

Whatever, I think the horse had a decent chance based simply on what I can categorically read form the form book – with the ‘plot theory’ just adding a little juice !!

1pt win 0.5pt place Monastrell 25/1 

Race review

Caulfields Venture ensured that the 2012-13 TVB season got off to the most inauspicious of starts !!

I tipped him this morning because I believed that the 66/1 price available, seriously under-estimated his chance in a relatively wide open race.

However, it would appear that I was pretty much alone in that view, as he remained a 66/1 shot throughout the day – and was ultimately sent off the same price.

Even more impressively (!), his Betfair SP was 315 ! I very much doubt that I will tip a horse with a longer BSP at any point in the next 5 months !

In the race itself, Caulfields Venture was settled in the rear and though he did briefly make some headway around half way, he never really threatened and when he tried to uproot the fifth last fence, whatever chance he may have had, was gone.

Somewhat ironically, I actually read the race quite well…

I suggested that Safran De Cotte would take the beating if the was fit –and he clearly was, as he out battled Godsmejudge (who I thought likely to place) from the final fence.

So, not exactly the start I had in mind – though we were helped by the staking, which I set at the minimum level, so damage to the P&L was minimal.

Earlier on the card, Be Definite was backed in to 6/4 favourite and won quite convincingly; whilst at Hereford, Arkose won a competitive looking handicap hurdle, with Pericoloso, finishing a disappointing fifth.

Hopefully things will improve tomorrow !!

TVB. 

Daily write-up - Nov 1st

Neither of today’s domestic NH cards at Hereford and Stratford respectively, really set the pulse racing.

That said, at this time of year, there is always the possibility that something will surprise with a better than expected performance, so they remain of interest…

I did try to fathom a handicap on each of the cards:

At Hereford, the hurdle race at 2:30 looked the most likely for me to be able to unpick. But having spent a little time on it, I decided to move on as I could neither see a compelling case for any of the runners – or any outstanding value.

Pericoloso seems to have least question marks against him – but he is also the early favourite – and his case doesn’t look water tight.

It was easy enough to pass on the race.

Over at Stratford, I was quite interested in Be Definite, in the chase at 2:10.

However, he has a slightly worrying knack of being placed – and again, the price on offer is not overly generous…

By far the most interesting race of the day (in the UK, at least), is the novice chase on the Stratford card.

There are quite literally, half a dozen potentially decent animals competing in the race – and it will be well worth watching, with a view to the rest of the season.

Thanks for Coming is the obvious starting point – and whilst it is easy to see him  placing – he does look vulnerable to anything with star potential.

The most obvious candidate for subsequent lofty heights, is Safron De Cotte. He looked a horse who might go places last year – and if he improves for the switch to fences – and is fit enough to do himself justice first time -  he is likely to take the beating.

Of the others, Godsmejudge looks very solid and like Thanks for Coming, it will be no surprise if he is placed. Whilst Secret Tune was a ‘pre-season friendly’ selection over hurdles - and ran well to a point. However, the overnight rain will not be in his favour.

There are 3 or 4 others, who I could also see running very well, which simply demonstrates the depth of the race.

However, I am particularly interested in Caulfields Venture, at a huge price.

He ran very well over hurdle last season off a mark of 109 – and I always felt he had the ability to take higher rank – probably over fences.

He was disappointing on his seasonal debut, but I would hope that was a just pipe-opener, over the smaller obstacles.

On official ratings over hurdles, he has about a stone to make up on the best of his rivals. But he has the potential and scope to do that - particularly if he takes to fencing.

In such a trappy race, he could never be a confident selection .However, I do think he is significantly over-priced at 66/1 (in my tissue, he was 20/1 – and I was hoping for 33/1 this morning). He therefore warrants the smallest of plays – and at 13/1 to be placed, EW has to be the call.

0.25pt EW Caulfields Venture 66/1