2012-13 TVB Season summary

I’ve managed to find a little time to produce a final post, to wrap up the 2012-13 TVB season…

First of all, the headline figures for the entire season:

TVB tips

Total staked: 111.5pts

Total profit: 33.5pts

ROI: 30%

Adjusted figures

Total staked: 111.5pts

Total profit: 70.3pts

ROI: 63%

*The adjusted figure assumes that all bets are layed off at 2 IR to produce the same profit regardless of whether the horse wins the race

In summary, a 30% return would have been achieved if you had backed all selections at advised odds, to advised stakes.

The adjusted profit figure attempts to strip out an element of the luck (both good and bad) and it’s superior returns, suggest that luck wasn’t really with us for a large chunk of the season (which is certainly how it felt !)

It is also interesting to note that if all of the selections had simply been backed at Betfair SP, the returns for the season would have been just over 35pts profit.

This does beg the question as to why I bother quoting prices - and why we all scurry around trying to get them !

However, this figure is skewed by the BSP of some of the longer priced horses – in particular Jadanli. The bulk of the selections returned with a lower BSP than the price advised (which is what I would expect).

It does though, flag the very valid point that Betfair will often yield greater returns on the longer priced horses (generally those priced at 20/1+).

Anyway, some more numbers for you…

There were a total of 183 tips across the season, meaning that as only 111.5pts were staked, the average stake size was little more than 0.5pt. This is definitely an area that I need to address, as my staking gave me too little room for manoeuvre (the weaker selections end up being staked similarly to the stronger ones).

The breakdown of placings for the 183 tips was as follows:

First – 22

Second – 23

Third – 19

Fourth - 21

These are quite pleasing numbers, as they mean that just under 25% of the tips finished first or second – which is bang in line with my target.

Just under 50% finished in the first 4 – which again, is were I aim to be…

The biggest draw down from a peak, at any point during the season, was 16.5 pts, which occurred at the end of the season.

Obviously, you want the draw downs to be as small as possible, as they affect confidence. That said, 16.5pts is not a massive amount on a service which is as potentially volatile as TVB !

Ofcourse, the draw downs can be reduced further if the practise of laying IR is adopted – though that is an individual decision…

In terms of stables, it was the relatively small operations that served us best this year, particularly those of Tom Symonds, Mick Channon and Kevin Bishop.

We also managed to secure a profit out of Venetia – which was nice after last seasons debacle !

This year, the stable that cost us most was that of Nigel Twiston Davies – though neither Kim Bailey nor Emma Lavelle covered themselves in glory.
I’ll be looking for better from all 3, next season ;)

On the equine front, then from the 183 tips, 16 horses were tipped twice – and 3, three times: Cootamundra, Captain Sunshine and Quart de Thaix.

And that, leads me into a very interesting area…

As you all know, what I try to do during the season (apart from simply making a profit by finding winners !), is latch on to horses who are ready to win.

They might not all win when I tip them (as you will doubtless have noticed), but often, their time is not far away.

Unfortunately, I was unable to tip at either of the seasons two big festivals: Cheltenham or Aintree. However, I hope that a few of you kept faith with the horses I’d tipped earlier in the season and followed them again at the big meetings.

36 of the horses that I had previously tipped during the season, ran at Cheltenham or Aintree (or both).

Between them, they ran 48 times – and managed 4 wins, 4 seconds and 2 thirds.

There appears nothing particularly remarkable about those numbers – until you look at the SPs of the ex TVB tips that were placed…

The winners returned at 66/1, 50/1, 28/1 and 16/1.

The runners up returned at 16/1, 16/1, 11/1 and 11/1

The thirds returned at 40/1 and 14/1

And that was the SPs !

I’m sure that most of them were available at bigger prices in the morning – and the BSPs were doubtless bigger as well.

However, even at SP – if you had put 1pt win on all ex TVB tips when they ran at either of the 2 big NH festivals, you would have made 116pts on 48pts staked !

Certainly food for thought for next season….

Talking of which, that is the next time that most of you will hear from me…

I will be busying myself with other activities during the summer months – but plan to return in October to kick off the new TVB season on November 1^st.

Provided I can get myself organised, there will be a proper TVB website rather than a public blog.

This means that only subscribers will be able to access all of my output throughout the season.

I will contact all existing subscribers during October and find out which of you want to subscribe for the new season.

I plan to limit my membership to 50, with any spare places hopefully being filled by people who have already expressed an interest and are currently on my waiting list.

I’m optimistic that the 2013-14 season will be the best one yet.

I feel that I learnt a lot during the 2012-13 season – and I have a number of improvements already planned for the service.

I hope that everyone has a really great summer – and I’ll look forward to the winter months descending on us ;) 

Until then…

TVB.

Termination of Service

Regrettably, I am going to have to terminate the TVB service for the 2012-13 season, with immediate effect…

Hopefully, I will be back in the autumn for 2013-14 season.

Thanks for your support over the past 4 months…

TVB.

Review of the day

Tim the Chair ran a reasonable race today – but wasn’t able to go with the leaders when things hotted up, 4 fences from home. No excuses – he just wasn’t good enough…

Unfortunately, that his been a familiar theme lately.

Gone are the hard luck stories and wrong borderline calls – replaced by horses that simply aren’t up to the task…

I’m honestly not sure what the issue is.

I feel that I’m picking the same kind of horses as I’ve done all season - but for some reason, they are just not performing well enough…

In truth, this is a seasonal game – and the importance of certain variables changes at certain times in the year.

I obviously try to adjust accordingly, but I’m clearly slightly out of step at the moment…

The good news, is that the situation shouldn’t last !

Like I say, things keep changing and as the better weather comes and the ground starts to quicken up, hopefully, my form will return.

Anyway, it was no better for todays mentions, than it was for the tip…

It was a wise decision to swerve Reasonable Force, who once again ran no sort of a race.

He wasn’t particularly strong in the betting – but he wasn’t outrageously weak either.

I thought it a strange move to settle him so far off the pace – but he was at least put in the race this time.
A watching brief remains the order of the day with him…

At Ayr, Kudu Country looked poised to make his move, when he made a shuddering mistake at the fifth last.

His jockey did well to stay aboard – but it effectively ended his chances.

I suspect that the next time we see him, it will be over hurdles…

Act of Kalanisi also made a nasty mistake at Huntingdon – though he was probably beaten at the time.

Whilst Katnapping managed to go one better (or worse, depending on your perspective) being brought down at the very first hurdle.

The pre-race drift on her was quite alarming. Out from 11/1 this morning to an SP of 20/1 (and 40+ on Betfair). Decanting your jockey at the first fence is always going to look a little suspicious when accompanied by those kind of market movements !

Things were no better at Clonmel, Anonis was pulled up after making mistakes in the novice hurdle, leaving our old friend Rathlin to run down the favourite, Unika La Reconce.

Beeverstown also hit the deck in the handicap chase. He was going well enough at the time, though it was too far out to know if he might have been involved in the finish.

Finally, Sandeel Bay ran a promising race in the beginners chase. He was ultimately well beaten, but moved quite nicely for much of the race - definitely building on his first run of the season.

He could ultimately be of interest in a low grade handicap…

All in all though, very much a day to forget !!

TVB.

Daily write-up - Feb 21st

4 NH meetings today, at Huntingdon, Sedgefield and Ayr in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland…

When I looked at the declarations yesterday, I felt there were 3 or 4 potential tips. However, at the prices available this morning, only one of them has materialised into an actual tip…

Furthermore, it’s a shame that I am no longer issuing earlybird tips, as some of you would be on Tim the Chair at twice the price he was available this morning !

Paddy Power opened up with him at 12/1 last night – which now looks like a rick of the highest order.

I’d set myself as happy to take 6/1 or greater on him – and that is roughly what we’ve got, so I’m happy enough with that (even if I would obviously have been lot happier with double those odds!).

Anyway, the rationale for today’s tip – plus a few words on one or two other half fancies…

Sedgefield 3:10

Tim the Chair really caught my eye on his most recent run at Bangor, just under a fortnight ago…

That was the race in which I tipped Double Dizzy – but it was Tim the Chair who kept on catching my eye, in-running.

He travelled really well on the heals of the leaders and looked sure to be involved in the finish, until his stamina gave out in the final half mile of the race.

I find it interesting to read that spotlight in the RP feels that ‘the cheekpieces made no difference last time’, as I think they made the world of difference…

The official handicapper wasn’t too impressed either, as he has dropped Tim the Chair 3lb, putting him back on the mark from which he won, at Uttoxeter last May.

So, over a trip 3 furlongs shorter than last time, with the cheek-pieces retained, on ground that will suit him well – and clearly in decent form, Tim the Chair should be a very good bet…

However, with a record as patchy as his, it is impossible not to have some reservations about him…

Since he won his first race under rules, almost exactly 2 years ago, he has run 9 times. 4 of those runs have been commendable (if you include his last run, which I do !); 1 has been OK (his penultimate run) – but the other 4 have been shockers…

Worse than that, they have been shockers when he has been relatively well fancied (his SP has been less than 10/1) on each occasion.

Consequently he is not a horse for maximum faith - even though, he almost certainly has the ability to win today..

When faced with a profile like his, I am normally able to offer a theory on the variance in his performance – but I have to say that he has got me stumped. I can see no pattern in his form…

Consequently, we are taking a bit of a risk with him today.

However, as I said earlier, he has a lot going for him; he is also a reasonable price – and I’ve not gone mad with the staking !
Fingers crossed that he puts in a decent run for us today.

0.5pt win Tim the Chair 13/2

Later on the Sedgefield card, I was sorely tempted to tip Reasonable Force in the handicap chase at 4:40…

I pointed him out earlier in the season, on the second of his runs at Catterick.

It seemed odd that connections were dropping him back to 2 miles that day, when he has always looked as if he needed a trip.

He was never put into the race that day (quite blatantly) – and it was a similar story last time out…

Well, those tactics seem to have worked, as the handicapper has dropped him 8lb across the 2 runs (which seems very lenient).

He is now on a mark off 100 which means he can just sneak into this class 5, 0-100 race, with top weight…

He was installed at 3/1, which seems tight – but if he is backed, I would feel pretty confident that he will win.

He could easily have a stone in hand of his mark – and back over a suitable trip, he could take advantage of that fact.

Certainly if he is ridden prominently (which was how he ran over hurdles) I would expect him to run a very big race today.

Over at Ayr, I was half tempted by Kudu Country in the handicap chase at 4:50…

We were on him last time out, when he was backed into near favouritism for a stronger race than this at Sandown.

However, he hit the first fence that day, which seemed to knock his confidence and he was eventually pulled up.

If we consider that to have just been a blip, then he is clearly of interest today.
However, he has been put in at 9/4 – and the opposition includes Kealigolane, who was the winner of a decent novice chase at Carlisle last time out.

I would expect Kudu Country to be able to pick Kealigolane off close home – but there is little margin at those kind of prices…

Over at Huntingdon, Act of Kalanisi is of some interest, at the prices, in the novice chase at 3:00…

However, he is coming here on the back of two non completions, so there is always the possibility that getting him round safely will be the priority…

In the mares novice hurdle at 4:00, I would be most interested in Katnaping…

She caught my eye on her debut at Doncaster, looking likely to go very close, but then weakened in the closing stages. If that run has brought her on, she could provide a little bit of value at around 10/1.

Finally, at Clonmel…

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Anonis shake up Unika La Reconce in the novice hurdle at 2:55; whilst I would expect Beeverstown to put up a bold show in handicap chase at 4:25 (though whether he is good enough to come home in front, is a different matter).

Finally, Sandeel Bay has his second run over fences in the beginners chase at 4:55.

It might take an act of faith to support him – but he ran with some promise on his seasonal debut, when I gave him a favourable mention.

I’ll certainly be keeping a close eye on him again today ;)

Here’s hoping for a good day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

Relative to expectations, today must go down as one of the most disappointing days of the season so far…

As I said this morning, February has been a struggle – but I really felt that I’d found a couple of horses that could turn the month around for us.

I staked them quite aggressively (by current standards !) – and in truth, I could easily have had even more on them – but ultimately, both proved to be massive disappointments…

I guess in fairness, what happened to Auroras Encore, can happen in the NH game.

He didn’t pick up at the second fence and took a crashing fall.

Hopefully he will be OK and we will maybe get another opportunity with him before the season ends.

To Live was an even bigger disappointment though…

I really did strongly fancy him – in fact I would go so far as to say, I felt he was the best tip I had put up all month !

His form was rock solid: he had plenty of scope for improvement; the track and ground should have been fine – and he was representing an in form stable who had sent him on a long outing.

In short - he ticked a lot of boxes…

So how come he ran so poorly ?!

I’ve honestly no idea. That said, the writing seemed to be on the wall very early, when he was pulling and throwing his head about on the run to the first fence.

Maybe he just had an off day – it happens, I guess.

As I’ve said before, they are not machines….

Anyway, in the grand scheme of things, it wasn’t a disaster – merely a disappointment.

I’ve got little option other than to brush myself down and start looking for the next winner.

Thankfully, there is always tomorrow (until we reach the last day of the season, that is ;) ).

TVB.

Daily write-up - Feb 20th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Doncaster, Ludlow and Punchestown.

All 3 put on reasonable enough cards – but I’m only interested in two races…

For whatever reason, February has been a struggle so far…

I feel that I’ve been tipping over-priced horses, with a chance of winning their races, but things just haven’t clicked.

Today, I think I’ve found a couple of horses with very good chances of winning – and both are at decent prices.

Of course, neither might win today – but that won’t stop them from being two of the best tips that I’ve put up this month.

As you might be able to tell, I’m quite hopeful of a decent day !

Ludlow 3:15

Early in January, a seemingly innocuous chase was run at Leicester…

I tipped Jack the Gent in the race and he ran creditably to finish fourth.

I was happy enough with his performance that day – but what I didn’t realise at the time, was just how hot a race it was…

Since that day, the winner, Arthurs Pass, has come out and won again  (beating subsequent winner, Sawpit Supreme). He is now rated 15lb higher than he was at Leicester.

Runner up, Prince of Dreams, has come out and won. He is now rated 10lb higher than he was that day.

Third placed Rouge et Blanc, has come out and won twice. He is now rated 23lb higher.

Fourth placed Jack the Gent has come out and finished second twice. He is now rated 5lb higher than he was that day…

The fifth placed horse in that race, was To Live…

He finished just behind Jack the Gent – but his finishing position does not flatter him.

He was poised to make his challenge, when he slipped on landing after jumping the fourth last, thereby losing any chance in the race.

Without that mistake, he would have finished at least one place better – maybe in the placing themselves.

If that had been the case, then based on the animals who surrounded him it would be safe to assume that To Live has at least 10lb in hand of today’s mark…

And looking at his form and his profile, that looks quite possible.

He has only run 4 times in this country – and only twice over fences. He certainly has plenty of scope for improvement.

He is a winner over hurdles on soft, in his native France, so the ground shouldn’t pose any problems today… 

Simply, if he jumps round safely today, he should go very close indeed…

Aside from the fences, I can see two main dangers in the race:

Favourite, Bobby Dove, is a young progressive horse, who won well last time out (beating the horse who subsequently beat Jack the Gent). He still looks very well handicapped off a mark of 87.

Darceys Dancer also looks very well handicapped off a mark more than 30lb lower when at his peak. He has been way out of form lately, but if he did stage a revival today, he would be difficult to beat.

On balance however, I am happy to stick with our tried and tested form line – and hope that To Live can provide a welcome boost for the month.

1pt win To Live 11/2

Doncaster 2:50

There is a slight chance that we are getting on Auroras Encore a race too early today – but I think I saw enough in his last run, for that not to be the case…

The thing about Auroras Encore, is that he is a spring time horse. He prefers the brighter days, shorter nights, warmer temperatures – and maybe most importantly (!), quicker ground.

When he gets those conditions, he is a very good horse – as he showed a couple of times, at the back end of last season.

On the first of those occasions, he was a very comfortable winner of a class 2 chase at Haydock and he followed that up by running second in the Scottish Grand National.

That honourable defeat, saw his handicap mark rise to 150. However, the great thing about horses like Auroras Encore, is that they can then be campaigned on unsuitably soft ground. That does them little harm – and their handicap gradually reduces.

That is precisely what has happened with Auroras Encore and he gets to run off a mark of 137 today. That is just 3lb higher than the mark he won from at Haydock – and 4lb lower than his mark when running in the Scottish Grand National.

In short, he is handicapped to just about win today…

Of course, that on it’s own wouldn’t be sufficient. We also need the right ground conditions – and preferably a few signs that he is running back into form.

Well, the official ground description today, is good to soft (good in places). I would prefer it to be good all over – but I’m just about happy with that.

In terms of him running in to form: his latest run was in the Betfred Classic chase at Warwick last month. Bearing in mind Auroras preferred conditions, that race was never going to be ideal for him, as it was run on very soft ground.

However, he ran really well in it, only weakening out of contention half way down the back straight on the final circuit.

Based on that run, I believe Auroras is ready to strike soon. The ground, is hopefully quick enough for him today; he is on a handicap mark form which he can win – and the track should be absolutely fine for him.

Of course, it is quite a competitive race – and I would be a little fearful of course specialist Corkage, in particular.

However, the fact is that Auroras Encore is capable of better form than virtually all of todays rivals – and conditions should be just about right for him to produce it.

Once again, I am optimistic of a result !

0.75pt win Auroras Encore 17/2

Here’s hoping for a memorable afternoon (preferably for the right reasons !).

TVB.

Race review

I found it desperately frustrating to watch today’s race…

Not because Cootamundra was beaten – I can cope with that – but because he ran with so much credit !

There was no point during the race – bar the last 50 yards – when I thought he was beaten. Even jumping the last, I was hopeful he might be able to quicken up - but alas it was not to be…

The trouble with him running so well against higher rated rivals, is that people will notice him…

There is less and less chance of him being under-estimated, when he runs in these conditions races – and the handicapper is likely to have his say as well….

The frustrating part, is that he could have walked a half decent novice chase – or handicap chase, a couple of moths back – but now, the latter at least, will be more difficult (and connections don’t seem keen on running him in average novice chases).

I guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens. It is clear that the ability is there for him to win a decent race – but whether he was be a betting proposition when the opportunity arises, is a different matter…

Earlier on the Navan card, Jadanli travelled really well in the 2m4f hurdle.

Ultimately, he was found wanting for toe when it mattered – but he is clearly still in very good heart…

Over at Wetherby, it was a case of seconditus !

First Weston Lodge finished second to Marie Des Anges in the novice chase. The winner was 3/1 this morning – but returned at 8/1 ! An incredible drift.

The race was marred by the fatal fall of Shinrock Hill – and how Young Hurricane managed to avoid a similar fate is beyond me. His fall was truly shocking…

Jack the Gent had to settle for the runners up position again – only this time he was more comfortably beaten…

However, I always felt that he would be more effective over 2m4f , so I won’t be giving up on him just yet.

Whilst in the finale, the Mark Johnston trained Willpower also managed to finish runner up.

The race was won in stunning style by Diamond King. I don’t know whether t winner is being aimed at the festival bumper, but based on today’s performance, he looked like a force to be reckoned with - even at that level.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Feb 19th

There are 3 NH meetings today, at Taunton, Wetherby and Navan – but they are a pretty uninspiring bunch of fixtures…

I was particularly disappointed by the fixture at Navan, where there are 4 grade 2 events and well over 100K Euro on offer.

There are a few decent performers running – but you really would expect more competition for those kind of prizes…

Maybe transferring the fixture from a Sunday to Tuesday has caused the problem – or maybe it is down to the very heavy ground.

Either way, it’s not a meeting that sets the pulse racing, in the way that I would have hoped…

That said, it is still a fair bit better than either the Wetherby card – or the all hurdle card at Taunton.

I’m rarely a fan of all hurdle cards – and the Taunton one does little to encourage me to change that opinion !

Anyway, enough of the negativity ! We still have a tip – though not the most original one ever ! – and consequently, you need some rationale…

Navan 3:45

This really can’t have come as much of a surprise to many of you…

I’ve already tipped Cootamundra twice this season  - and, all things being equal, I am likely to continue tipping him, every time he runs, until the TVB season ends !

Simply, I believe that he will win a race this season. Probably quite a good one – and probably at a decent price – and I am determined we will be on him when it happens…!

Whether that day will be today, is a different matter. However, I’m not prepared to let him go untipped today because we all know how sods law will react if I do !

I’ve only had a small play on him today – mainly because of the odds. He opened up at 25/1 with B365 last night – and at that price, I might have been prepared to go to war (EW).

However at a best price of 14/1 this morning, there isn’t as much juice, so I’ve reigned back accordingly…

Also, if I’m honest, I don’t; think that today provides the ideal set of circumstances for Cootamundra.

What I think he needs, is 2m4f, in heavy ground, with a fast pace.

He’ll get 2 out of the 3 today: the pace and the ground – but the trip is only 2 miles and that might prove to be his undoing…

Time alone will tell on that score. A lot will depend on how fast Twinlight and Buckers Bridge go off.

I wouldn’t expect them to hang about – but basing a bet on the expected pace in a race, is a risky business…

All that said, if Twinlight and Buckers Bridge do go off very hard, there is a distinct possibility that the race will fall apart – and if that happens, I would expect Cootamundra to have a very good chance of picking up the pieces.

If however, the race is run at a steady pace, and they quicken up with half a mile to run, he may well be caught out, as was the case on his last outing…

If that does happen, then we will just have to wait for another day. It’s a good job that we are all patient sorts, who know that good things do eventual come to those prepared to wait ;)

0.5pt win Cootamundra 14/1

Earlier on the card, our good friend Jadanli runs in the 2m4f Boyne hurdle.

He obviously did us a massive favour last time – but I won’t be expecting a repeat performance today…

He can be backed at 33/1, but that is for a very good reason – he has little chance !
Obviously, he will love the heavy ground, but the trip is too short  - and the opposition too good.

I suspect he is running over hurdles to keep himself fit for a crack at an other big chase.

His mark appears not to have been changed after his Thystes win, and I suspect connections have got the Irish National in mind for him.

We don’t want to let him slip off the radar – but he is definitely one to watch today…

Over at Wetherby, I couldn’t help but notice that Jack the Gent will be trying to right the wrongs from Doncaster, in the 4:25 race…

He clearly has a very good chance of doing so – but is 5lb higher than he was at Doncaster and is priced up at 7/4…

The Doncaster race wasn’t particularly strong – and despite there being just 5 runners today, I’m not sure that this one is any weaker…

He is certainly up to winning – but I couldn’t be interested in him as a tip…

In the finale at Wetherby, Willpower certainly catches the eye…

I can’t recall Mark Johnston having previously had a run in a Bumper (though I may be wrong !) – and it is also Choc Thornton’s only ride of the day.
In short, the subtle signs could be very keen !
However, he doesn’t seem particularly strong in the early betting – and you do have to question why he is taking this route and not running on the flat…

Potentially of more interest, is the well bred Ty’n Y Wern for the up and coming Tony Coyle.

He can be backed at 11/1 and that is far more appealing…

However, if I was going to have one bet at the meeting, it would most likely be Weston Lodge in the novice chase at 2:10.

He has run with promise on both his outings this season and seemed to find the trip a little far last time.

He has been dropped back half a mile today and that could make all the difference…

He was 6/1 early – but is now 4/1, which is tight. That said, we all know by now the power of the market. I suggest that you act as you think appropriate !!

Here’s to a good day ahead !

TVB.

Race review

Well the two novices in todays feature race - Emperor’s Choice and Sidney Paget, may have been backed down to unattractive prices – but that didn’t stop them from completely dominating it…

Sidney Paget attempted to make all and it was clear from the third last, that the only horse who could possibly get to him, was Emperor’s Choice.

Sydney still looked the most likely winner jumping the last, but Emperor’s Choice ran him down in the shadows of the post…

Arbor Supreme ran a reasonable race – but just couldn’t go with the pace when it quickened about a mile from home. He eventually came home well beaten…

All the same, he did better than My Boy Paddy, who didn’t even manage to successfully negotiate the first fence !
I can only recall Captain Sunshine giving us less of a run for our money L

Ofcourse, what I should have done, was leave that race alone and tip in the previous one !

That was won in comprehensive style by Yesyoucan, whom I was tempted by this morning…

I felt he was tight enough at 11/2 – but his starting price was 11/4 !
It’s funny how often they win when that happens…

Hopefully we will have a little more joy tomorrow…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Feb 18th

Two NH meetings today, at Carlisle and Southwell…

The meeting at Southwell is very low grade and it didn’t take me long to figure there was little of interest there.

Carlisle host a more interesting meeting – featuring a particularly good renewal of the class 2 Cumberland show handicap chase – and that is the race that I’ve chosen for today’s tip…

3:40

Maybe not too surprisingly, the market for this race is dominated by a couple of progressive novice chasers: Sidney Paget and Emperor’s Choice.

Both have been in good form recently and represent top yards: Donald McCain and Venetia Williams respectively.

They may very well be able to progress sufficiently to win today’s contest – but I think there is a danger of both being overbet and as a consequence I want to take them on…

One whom I don’t think will be overbet, is Arbor Supreme – however I still think he has a very good chance of taking the prize…

There are a few reasons why I think he will be shunned by punters today. Firstly, he was pulled up last time out; secondly, common consensus will be that the trip is a little short for him – and thirdly he represents JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neil – a combination that punters tend to be wary of !

However, my take on his chances is a little different…

He was pulled up last time in Ireland, but that followed him making a number of mistakes. The fences in Ireland are generally a little more difficult to jump that the British ones, and it interesting that he is now running at Carlisle, which is one of the easiest courses to jump round…

Prior to that run, Arbor Supreme had finished fourth in the Welsh National – off a mark 7lb higher than he runs off today.

That really was a tremendous performance and confirmed the horse very much back in form.

That had been the suggestion, when he had won on his previous outing at Exeter. He was raised 10lb for that win – but is still on a mark over 20lb below the one he reached at his peak.

Of course, Arbor Supreme is no longer at his peak – but his runs at Chepstow and Exeter show he retains plenty of ability.

I do think that today’s trip is the minimum he wants - but is the desperately heavy ground, only the strongest of stayers are going to get round.

Provide he jumps cleanly and can stay close to the pace, he will go very close.

As always, I see the booking of Maurice Linehan as a big bonus. He may only claim 5lb nowadays – but that is still a relative gift…

The other one I want on side, is My Boy Paddy…

He finished third in this race last season, on only his second outing over fences. That was a big performance for one so inexperienced – and he gets to run off just a pound higher mark this time around…

He has also put in some very creditable performances since that date.

Most notably when second to Sona Sasta in the mud and Chepstow – and last time out over a marathon trip at Bangor…

My Boy Paddy was moving very well in the Bangor race, until his stamina gave out over the final couple of fences.

Over a trip half a mile shorter today, he should have no stamina issues.

I am certainly hopeful that at least one of the two will be able to get the better of the novices this afternoon…

0.5pt win Arbor Supreme BSP

0.25pt win My Boy Paddy 9/1

In the previous race on the card, I was half tempted by the top weight, Yesyoucan…

He was a good winner of a much hotter handicap at Haydock, on his penultimate start, before disappointing last time out, at the same track…

He has been given 8 weeks to recover from his latest run and if he manages to bounce back to his earlier form, he could be too good for todays opposition.

However, whilst 11/2 is a fair price – it is not overly generous, with a number of possible dangers in the race. I therefore plan to take a watching brief..

Here’s hoping for a good afternoon ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

Another mixed bag of a day, which resulted in us making a small profit, to offset yesterdays small loss…

On the upside, we’re not losing too much at the moment – however, that’s not really the object of the exercise, and certainly not what I had in mind when I issued today’s tips…

As with yesterday, things initially looked very bright.

Although Classical Mist was pulled up around half way (thereby meaning we had no saver – and all forecasts were down L ), the main tip in the race, Sawpit Supreme, battled on gamely to record a well deserved victory…

When she kicked a few lengths clear after the third last, she looked sure to collect. However, she was then untidy at both the second last and last fence, and on the run-in, she look sure to get collared…

To her credit, she gamely stuck her neck out and battled her way to victory…

Quite surprisingly, she was the third wining drifter that I’ve tipped this month.

This is an unfamiliar phenomenon for me – I’m used to all of my winners being heavily backed.

Maybe it is because I’m tipping a few more at the top of the market – there isn’t a lot of scope for them to shorten further !

That said, I was genuinely staggered to see Sawpit go off at 6/1 on Betfair.
Based on form I couldn’t see how she could possibly be more than a 4/1 shot. If she had run poorly, I would have had something to say !

More generally, the drift in her price illustrates the importance of trying to secure BOG when backing the horses – particularly at the shorter prices.

For the purposes of recording, I will continue to the prices advised in the emails for the P&L (provided they are reasonably easy to obtain).

Hopefully this will mean that a few of you will have a slightly better P&L than is officially stated, at the end of the month…

As is so often the case however, if we could be considered a little fortune with the victory of Sawpit Supreme, the fortune imbalance was swiftly redressed in the very next race…

A little like Sawpit Supreme, Buffalo Bob led from the off and rounding the home turn, had most of the field in trouble.

Approaching the third last, Seigneur Des Bois was the only remaining challenger and on the run to 2 out, it looked as if Bob might be able to fend him off.

However, it was not to be and he was caught on the run to the final obstacle and passed, jumping it…

I guess it was always a possibility – and I have no complaints…

Bob ran exactly the race I expected – and ran to the level of form that he is capable.

He simply bumped into one that had improved massively for a change of stable.

I thought that a near years absence might be too much for Seigneur Des Bois to overcome – but he clearly had a significant amount in hand of his mark.

Somewhat ironically, Seigneur Des Bois has exactly the same connections and has taken exactly the same path, as Sophonie… If only she had performed as he did, when she was a big tip last month..!

The final tip of the day to run, was Miss Kalifa.

She had been very well backed all day – but as I’ve said before, it is the 10 minutes prior to the off, that really count.

And unfortunately, during that period, she was weak – very weak…

She drifted from 4.6 on Betfair out to 7, a few moments before the off – the signs were not good !

Sure enough in the race, she was never travelling with any purposes. She skied a few of the early fences (presumably as a result of her recent exploits over fences) and started to struggle from half way down the back straight on the second circuit.

It didn’t look as if she was enjoying the desperately heavy ground – and she was pulled up before the home straight.

Again, a disappointing end to a day which had started with much promise…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Feb 17th

NH meetings today at Ffos Las and Market Rasen…

The lack of an Irish meeting was a very unpleasant shock for me !

There was a decent meeting scheduled for Navan – but it has now been moved to Tuesday (presumably because the course is currently unraceable).

Initially, I wasn’t optimistic that I would have much for today – but as is so often the case, when I started looking properly, I found a few !

Alas they are not the most inspiring set of tips I have ever produced – but I guess if I can find a couple of winners, nobody will be moaning too much.

Obviously, it is nice to find big priced winners – but as we were reminded again yesterday, when 11 out of the 14 winners at the 2 meetings I studied returned at less than 5/1, finding decent priced winners is getting harder and harder…

It would seem, that you need to adapt or sink. I am therefore adapting a little ;)

Anyway, enough of the rambling and on to the rationale for today’s tips – starting at Ffos Las…

3:20

I really am rather keen on Buffalo Bob today…

As many of you will be aware, he is a horse close to my heart. I tipped him EW, to maximum stakes, twice last season – and he didn’t let me down on either occasion…

I hope that today he can provide me with a hatrick of successful tips !

I do feel that the case for him today, is quite compelling…

After 3 disappointing runs so far this season, he has dropped to a mark 2lb below his last success. That was last March, when he beat Plein Pouvoir over 2m4f in the mud at Chepstow – so not a bad performance really !

He has not run well since that point – but all his races have been over further, and Buffalo Bob is at his best when ridden aggressively over the shorter trip.

The heavy ground today, will doubtless be a problem for some – but it won’t be an issue for Bob. As well as his victory at Chepstow, he also ran with enormous credit in the mud at Aintree last season.

All of these factors mean that Buffalo Bob has a good chance today – but there is one additional factor which I believe means he has an excellent chance: the refitting of cheek pieces…

A visor was applied to Bob for the first time last February and it resulted in (an admittedly fortunate) victory…

Two starts later, cheek pieces were applied for the first time in the Chepstow race against Plein Pouvoir and the result was the same…

The thing about these old boys, is that they get a bit jaded. Buffalo Bob will be having his 35^th outing under rules today –and I suspect he is getting a bit blasé about it all..

He has run without his customary verve this so far this season – but I suspect we will see a totally different horse this afternoon.

Certainly connections have been canny. They have allowed his handicap mark to drop to a level where they know he can win – and now they have taken action.

I honestly believe that today is the day for Buffalo Bob – and that at this level, in these conditions, he is going to prove a very tough adversary for all of his rivals.

0.75pt win Buffalo Bob 9/2

3:50

Miss Kalifa came to my attention, when she ran over fences, behind Valmari, last time out…

Those of you who recall the race (Valmari was a TVB tip that day), might recall that Valmari was hassled for the lead for most of the race by Miss Kalifa.

Miss Kalifa was a 40/1 shot that day – which wasn’t too surprising considering she was rated 20lb inferior to Valmari but she produced a tremendous performance, putting it up to the eventual winner right until the second last fence.

She ultimately paid the penalty for her efforts and weakened to finish fifth – but it was still an admirable performance.

Based purely on that run, Miss Kalifa is of significant interest in this race, off a mark of 107. However, there are other pieces of form – over hurdles from last season – which also make her look like a good bet…

It is of particular interest, that her best 2 runs over hurdles were both recorded at this track, over a 3 mile trip. For a start, that alleviates any concerns over her coping with the 2m6f trip today – even in the heavy ground.

The second of her course runs last season is particularly noteworthy.

In that race, she finished second to Makethe Mostofnow. She was receiving almost a stone from the winner that day – and was beaten 9 lengths. However, he is now rated 139 over hurdles – and there was 16 lengths back to the 126 rated African Broadway.

The latter was also giving Miss Kalifa significant weight – but even so, it suggests that she is capable of performing to a mark of around 115 – and will act over the course and distance…

The heavy ground is a slight concern – but she has run very creditably on soft, so it is reasonable to hope that she will handle it.

I would expect Miss Kalifa to race prominently – possibly even lead, as she tried to at Ludlow.

If he does adopt those tactics, then Jamie Moore will have to get the pace right. However, his confidence should be on a high following his exploits yesterday, so hopefully he will be up to the job. Provided he is, I would be optimsitic that Miss Kalifa won’t let us down.

0.5pt win Miss Kalifa 11/2

Over to Market Rasen, then…

3:00

I felt a had to add an explanatory note to the tips in this race, in case you all thought I was losing my marbles !

I mentioned earlier in the week, that I planned to tip 2 short priced horses in a race at Leicester prior to it’s abandonment. Well, I’ve done it today !!

Hopefully, you are all comfortable with the logic behind my actions.

Simply, I think this is a 2 horse race – and whilst the value is with Sawpit Supreme, I want to cover the stake with a saver on Classical Mist.

Sawpit Supreme’s last run was behind Arthurs Pass.

We know that is good form. Arthurs Pass is the horse who won the race contested by Rouge et Blanc and Jack the Gent, at Leicester.

Sawpits Supreme gave Arthurs Pass a real race in his subsequent outing, travelling better than him early in the straight and only giving best after the last fence.

She has been raised a pound for that run – but I don’t think that will be an issue.
Simply, she is a mare in good form, who the handicapper has currently underestimated. She must go close today…

However, despite there only being 4 other runners in the race, I think there is a horse in it who is capable of testing her…

Classical Mist was a comfortable winner on her seasonal debut at Catterick in December and followed that up by running really well against the very progressive Brave Spartacus, next time out.
She was no match for the winner that day – but there was no disgrace in that. She also finished a long way clear of the third horse – and yet gets to run off the same mark today.
In fact, she is now on a mark only 2lb higher than the one that she started the season on. The handicapper seems to have missed her !

Of the other 3, I am happy enough to take on Groomed and Kayfton Pete, making William money the most likely one to mess things up.

I guess that’s not surprising, as he is favourite - but I really don’t think he has the best chance in the race.

If forced to get off the fence, I would slight favour Classical Mist. However I think there is very little between the pair and at the bigger odds, Sawpit Supreme is the better bet.
As for those of you who are temped by the forecast – there would be worse calls !!

0.5pt win Sawpit Supreme 4/1

0.25pt win Classical Mist 11/4

In the 4:30 race on the card, I was very interested by top weight Ballymurry

Those of you with exceptional memories will recall that I mentioned him as noteworthy, when he ran his second race over hurdles at Chepstow, early in January…

He ran well that day - but looked every inch a future chaser.
Sure enough, next time out, he was pitched into a very hot novice chase at Doncaster.

Not surprisingly, he came up short for that event – but it got him a handicap mark…

Today should be the day we are really interested in him – his first handicap chase.

However, his mark of 99 looks a bit harsh to me – and his price of 5/1 a bit skinny…

In truth, I have absolutely no idea how the handicapper arrived at his rating – I certainly couldn’t have come up with a number.

I just wonder if connections might think it a little harsh as well. I am sure he will ultimately be up to wining off such a mark – but I am not sure it will be today…

A poor run this afternoon, could easily see 10lb off his mark – and then they may be prepared to go to war with him

Whatever, I will be watching with interest…

Here’s to a good day ahead.

TVB.

Review of the day

Watching Vino Griego power home at Ascot, early this afternoon, I thought that we were maybe going to have a decent Saturday (which would be a welcome change !).

However, it gradually became apparent that wasn’t going to be the case – and ultimately, we had to settle for a small loss on the day…

As was the case last weekend, when I look at the days results, I can see why we struggled…

6 out of 7 favourites winning at Ascot – and a 33/1 rag – is unlikely to ever signal a good TVB day…

Things weren’t quite as bad at Haydock – but they weren’t massively better either…

3 out of 7 winning favourites – with 2 of the other winners returning at 7/2 and 4/1 respectively…

All this said, we did get one winner – and if I’d not baulked at the price, we could well have had another in Well Refreshed – but I wasn’t prepared  to take 6/1 (even though he was returned at 9/2 !).

In terms of how today’s runners ran:

Then obviously, Vino Griego ran very well ! He wasn’t quite as impressive as he had been at Cheltenham – but today’s was a stronger race and he was 10lb higher in the handicap.

I think things will be a tougher for him next time. He is likely to take a further 6 or 7lb rise in the weights – and he may not get soft ground.

I’ll certainly be thinking twice about taking a short price on him…

Tatenen ran OK to a point in the same race – but made a few jumping mistakes and wasn’t good enough to go with the leaders from the home turn.

A drop off a few pounds - and a return to a slightly shorter trip, will probably suit him…

Next up it was Triggerman at Haydock.

However he never travelled as well as he had done at Chepstow last time – and he was soon beaten.

As I mentioned above, the race was won by Well Refreshed – and the next time you read me writing:

‘If you asked me to pick the most likely winner, I’d go for Well Refreshed.’

I suggest that you just stop reading at that point and back the horse in question !!

The final 2 tips of the day, were by far the biggest disappointments…

I knew that Yurok was no certainty – but I expected him to run a lot better than he did…

Whether it was the heavy ground, I don’t know – but he ran very disappointingly…

Exactly the same can be said for Florafern.

I thought her my best bet of the day – and when she was a strong 6/1 shot around lunchtime, I was very optimistic.

However, she was double that price on BF at the off – and ran no sort of a race…

Again ,the ground might have been to blame – but it was still a disappointing effort…

Maybe tomorrow will bring better…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Feb 16th

Four NH meetings today, at Haydock, Ascot, Wincanton and Gowran Park.

The action from the first 2 named is absolutely top class – and I limited most of my study and all of my tipping to those cards.
When I first looked at the racing, I actually thought I would have even more tips today – but I’ve reigned back a little and limited myself to 4 races…

As always, I think I’ve found horses with a chance, at odds which under-state their chances. Whether any of them are good enough to win – time alone will tell…

Onto the rationale then – starting at Haydock…

2:55

This is a hell of a race !

If you asked me to pick the most likely winner, I’d go for Well Refreshed.

However, he has been winning at class 3 and steps up to class 1 today. He might be up to the job – but 6/1 seems quite a short price to find out…

The key to todays race looks to be the Welsh Grand National, which was run on the first Saturday in January.
The race was won in tremendous style, by Monbeg Dude, who ran down Teaforthree in the shadows of the post.

Both have been raised for their efforts that day: Monbeg Dude by 10lb and Teaforthree by 7lb. Of the two, I would favour the former – who still has untapped potential – and room for improvement in his jumping…

However, back in third that day, was Triggerman…

Entering the home straight, he was part of a break away trio. He looked to be travelling as well as anything at that point – and only gave best approaching the final fence…

Somewhat surprisingly, the handicapper has chosen to drop him 2lb for that run, meaning that he is 12lb better off with Monbeg Dude (and 9lb better off with Teaforthree). That just doesn’t look right to me…

Today’s race is over 2f shorter – and on a flatter track. Both of these factors should play to the favour of Triggerman.

Simply, at 14/1, he looks overpriced…

All this said, this is not a 3 horse race !
As I mentioned, I would actually have Well Refreshed as the most likely winner of the race – and if you fancy him you have to fancy Rigadin de Beauchene (whom he beat at Lingfield , but who is much better off at the weights today).

However, you can’t beat 7/1 on any of those 4 mentioned horses – which makes it very difficult to see an edge…

Of the others in the race, I think that Giles Cross and Cannington Brook are currently too high in the handicap.

Silver by Nature would be of huge interest, despite top weight, if you knew he was fully fit. However, he has been of the course for more than 600 days, so is likely to need the run.
The other one that could be of interests at a big price, is Mac Aeda…

He caught the eye last time, coming form off the pace in a race over a much shorter trip. He could be interesting, picking off the front runners, if they go too fast up front.

0.25pt EW Triggerman 14/1

4:05

Another really trappy race – but one where I think Yurok has a decent chance, at a fair price…

Yurok first came to my attention on his penultimate run at Wetherby. He got the better of Aland Island that day – much to my amazement…

I had been massively impressed by Aland Island, when he made his fencing debut at Newcastle and thought he was a near certainty for the Wetherby contest.

However, he seemed to be beaten on merit that day, so I looked more closely into Yurok’s form …

As a novice hurdler, Yuroks form stands the closet scrutiny…

First time over hurdles, he beat the now 143 rated Rival Estruval. On his second outing over the smaller obstacles, he spilt the now 150- rated Trustan Times and the now 145 rated Our Mick. Third time out, he was beaten by the enigmatic – but highly talented Battle Group.

On his final outing over hurdles, he was pulled up lame in a grade 1 event at Aintree…

His next appearance on the racecourse was 18 months later, when he ran very promisingly in a 2 mile novice chase at Carlisle, last October. The trip that day was almost certainly too short for him…

His next run was his defeat of Aland Island at Wetherby – which, having taken all of the above into consideration, now doesn’t look that big a shock !

Yurok has been consistently running to a level in 140s – and yet is only rated 134.

More than that, he has potential to go to an even higher level, which makes him very interesting indeed…

Of course all of this, ignores his last time out run at Kelso, where he was disappointing.

However, that was a 3 runner race, over 3 miles, on heavy ground. The winner, Red Rocco, dictated the pace that day – and my inclination is to think the form is unreliable…

There is also the chance that Yurok didn’t stay the 3 mile trip that day, so I am pleased to see him dropped back half a furlong today.

Hopefully there will be a decent pace and Yurok can demonstrate what a well handicapped horse he is !

0.5pt win Yurok 13/2

4:40

I’ve been waiting a couple of months for Florafern to run…

She really caught my eye, when just failing to give our old friend Tweedledrum 23lb at Ascot. Tweedledrum is now rated 20lb higher – so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to deduce that Florafern ran a mighty race that day.

It was also a big field race, with a decent gap back to the third placed horse – so the form really does look strong.

Next time out, Florafern disappointed at Sandown. However that race took place only 2 weeks after her Ascot exertions, so there must be a chance that she hadn’t fully recovered. The race was also run over 2m4f and I think that Florafern needs a 3 mile trip. Something that she gets today…

The other reason why I’m particularly keen on Florafern today, is because I’m not overly afraid of any of her opponents…

The market is headed by Hold on Julio and whilst his mark over hurdle is 13lb lower than his mark over fences, it remains to be seen how lenient it actually is…

Seymour Eric has run up a hatrick in his first three races this season – but they have all been in a much lower grade. Today’s opposition will be far tougher than he is used to.

You can make a case of sorts for most of the others – but nothing particularly compelling.
In short, if Florafern runs to the level of form she did when beaten by Tweedledrum, I think she will take a lot of beating today.

1pt win Florafern 10/1

The Rendlesham hurdle at 2:20 looks very difficult to solve…

A case can be made for Kentford Grey Lady, Trustan Times and Cross Kennon.

However, I couldn’t dismiss Hada Men or Miss Milbourne.

At odds of 25/1, Miss Millbourne has to be of some interest – even if she is likely to find one or two too good…

In the hunter chase that completes the card, I think Nicto De Beauchene could have been under-estimated…

He is still professionally trained and wouldn’t have been far behind these at his peak.

The trip and ground should hold no fears for him – and at a general 14/1, he looks very interesting (he might even have been a tip – if I tipped in Hunter chases !!)

Over to Ascot then…

2:40

If ever a horse divided a (horse racing) nation, it is Vino Griego !!

Some people love him – others have no time for him…

I used to sit formerly in the first camp. However, he then lost a race at Maret Rasen which I was convinced he should have win - and I moved in to the latter camp.

He promptly made me pay for that decision by hacking up in an ultra competitive race on Cheltenham trials day !

I was kind of hoping that people would think that a fluke and that he would be more generously priced today – but alas that has not been the case.

In all honesty, backing him at a relatively short price, off a 10lb higher mark today, is not something I feel totally comfortably with – but that said, if connections have found the key to him then I’m sure his is a much better horse than he is currently rated…

Everyone seems to think that the key to his last time out win, was him being held up.

I suspect that probably helped – but I think the key was the soft ground and the fast pace.

If you look at his form, all of his best runs have been achieved in those circumstances…

And he should get them again today. The ground will certainly be soft – and I think there should also be a good pace.

If that is the case, then today is the day when we will find out how good Vino Griego really is…

If he comes up short, then the one I think might take advantage, is Tatenen.

Formerly a very decent 2 mile novice chaser for Paul Nicholls, he has reinvented himself in recent years, over slightly longer trips, for Richard Rowe…

He won a race over 2m6f at this course last January, off a mark just 1lb lower than he races off today. There are some doubts about him getting the 3 mile trip today – but he showed tremendous battling qualities to win that race and I suspect he won’t be found wanting for stamina – provide he is ridden with a little restraint…

That certainly wasn’t the case last time out, on his seasonal debut in 2m4f chase at the Cheltenham December meeting.

He absolutely tanked into the lead at the top of the hill that day, but maybe not too surprisingly, didn’t get home.

Part of the issue with him, is that he is an exuberant horse – so Andy Thornton has a tricky balancing act to perform.

Hopefully he will be able to hold the right line and get him to run his race (even if it does see Vino Griego cruising past him on the run to the last !)

Of the others in the race, I can see an argument for The Rainbow Hunter based on his course victory back in November…

The placed horses from that day have subsequently franked the form in spectacular style and if that run doesn’t flatter The Rainbow Hunter, you would have to think him still a well handicapped horse.
However, I think the run does flatter him. His jumping that day was near foot perfect – and he got an ideal waiting ride. In contrast, his main opponents either made significant jumping errors – or were ridden too aggressively.

I think he will be lucky to find the race unfolding in such a manner again today…

0.5pt win Vino Griego 5/1 (prior to R4)

0.5pt win Tatenen 8/1 (prior to R4)

 

In the following handicap hurdle, I was half tempted to tip Lord Of House, whom I think may be well suited by the step up in trip.

However, it is a very competitive race and I decided to swerve it.

Instead, I’ll be cheering on our old friend Queens Grove - though she too will have her work cut out to come home first – even with Ruby Walsh on top !!

Despite only 6 runners, the Ascot chase at 3:50, looks an absolute cracker…

I would expect the winner to come from the top 4 in the market – and I remain unconvinced about Finians Rainbow over 2m5f in soft ground…

The trip could also prove the undoing of both Cue Card and Somersby – which leaves Captain Chris as the default selection…

Obviously, I would be pleased if he did win – but I don’t feel sufficiently strongly about him to make him a tip – particularly as you can’t beat a price of 5/2…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.