Two NH meetings today, at Carlisle and Southwell…
The meeting at Southwell is very low grade and it didn’t take me long to figure there was little of interest there.
Carlisle host a more interesting meeting – featuring a particularly good renewal of the class 2 Cumberland show handicap chase – and that is the race that I’ve chosen for today’s tip…
3:40
Maybe not too surprisingly, the market for this race is dominated by a couple of progressive novice chasers: Sidney Paget and Emperor’s Choice.
Both have been in good form recently and represent top yards: Donald McCain and Venetia Williams respectively.
They may very well be able to progress sufficiently to win today’s contest – but I think there is a danger of both being overbet and as a consequence I want to take them on…
One whom I don’t think will be overbet, is Arbor Supreme – however I still think he has a very good chance of taking the prize…
There are a few reasons why I think he will be shunned by punters today. Firstly, he was pulled up last time out; secondly, common consensus will be that the trip is a little short for him – and thirdly he represents JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neil – a combination that punters tend to be wary of !
However, my take on his chances is a little different…
He was pulled up last time in Ireland, but that followed him making a number of mistakes. The fences in Ireland are generally a little more difficult to jump that the British ones, and it interesting that he is now running at Carlisle, which is one of the easiest courses to jump round…
Prior to that run, Arbor Supreme had finished fourth in the Welsh National – off a mark 7lb higher than he runs off today.
That really was a tremendous performance and confirmed the horse very much back in form.
That had been the suggestion, when he had won on his previous outing at Exeter. He was raised 10lb for that win – but is still on a mark over 20lb below the one he reached at his peak.
Of course, Arbor Supreme is no longer at his peak – but his runs at Chepstow and Exeter show he retains plenty of ability.
I do think that today’s trip is the minimum he wants - but is the desperately heavy ground, only the strongest of stayers are going to get round.
Provide he jumps cleanly and can stay close to the pace, he will go very close.
As always, I see the booking of Maurice Linehan as a big bonus. He may only claim 5lb nowadays – but that is still a relative gift…
The other one I want on side, is My Boy Paddy…
He finished third in this race last season, on only his second outing over fences. That was a big performance for one so inexperienced – and he gets to run off just a pound higher mark this time around…
He has also put in some very creditable performances since that date.
Most notably when second to Sona Sasta in the mud and Chepstow – and last time out over a marathon trip at Bangor…
My Boy Paddy was moving very well in the Bangor race, until his stamina gave out over the final couple of fences.
Over a trip half a mile shorter today, he should have no stamina issues.
I am certainly hopeful that at least one of the two will be able to get the better of the novices this afternoon…
0.5pt win Arbor Supreme BSP
0.25pt win My Boy Paddy 9/1
In the previous race on the card, I was half tempted by the top weight, Yesyoucan…
He was a good winner of a much hotter handicap at Haydock, on his penultimate start, before disappointing last time out, at the same track…
He has been given 8 weeks to recover from his latest run and if he manages to bounce back to his earlier form, he could be too good for todays opposition.
However, whilst 11/2 is a fair price – it is not overly generous, with a number of possible dangers in the race. I therefore plan to take a watching brief..
Here’s hoping for a good afternoon ahead !
TVB.
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