Daily write-up - Feb 3rd

Musselburgh and Punchestown host a couple of really interesting meetings this afternoon…

I’ve found a couple of tips at Musselburgh – and I could easily have found a couple more !

Similarly at Punchestown, whilst I’ve resisted the temptation to tip, I’ve got views on most of the races…

Anyway, enough of the teasing (!), let’s get into the action, starting with Musselburgh and the rationale for the days 2 tips…

3:00

I really could be quite keen on Quito Du Tresor here…

He actually ran fourth in this very race last season – staying on well, behind easy winner, Tara Royale. Quito Du Tresor gets to run off a 10lb lower mark today – which makes him of immediate interest (as we know from last year, that he acts over the course and distance) – but there is more to his case than just a drop in the handicap…

His most recent run, was over course and distance, at the beginning December…

Quito ran really well in that race and looked sure to be involved in the finish, as he travelled comfortably in second place, entering the straight.

However, he didn’t get home that day, fading over the final few fences, to finish sixth.

He did very much look like a horse to be on next time though...

The winner of the race, was Swift Arrow - but I’ll be a little surprised if the can confirm the form on 11lb worse terms.

I’ll also be a little surprised if De Biotron can confirm the placing with Quito from last years race (he finished third), as he is 9lb worse off today…

All this said, there are a few reasons why I am holding back a little on Quito today…

Firstly, it is now 60 days since he last ran. I felt in December that he had run himself back into form – however 2 months later, I wouldn’t be as confident about his condition.

Also, his normal cheek pieces have been removed today. He has won without them in the past - and ran without them in this race last season – but I would be a little fearful that he might get outpaced as a result of them not keeping him ‘honest’…

My other concerns, are to do with the opposition…

As I’ve said, I’m happy enough taking on a couple of his rivals, but Anquetta, Ciceron and Prince of Dreams, all worry me…

I honestly wouldn’t want to split them, as I think all 3 could cause real issues, if at peak form. Prince of Dreams is probably the most solid of the trio – but probably the one I fear least !

Anquetta has a lot of weight- but had come a long way; represents top connections and goes well fresh.

Whilst, if the money comes for Ciceron, we really should be worried

All this said, I still think Quito has a very good chance – and represent excellent value.

Staking was tricky – but I’ve effectively settled on a win bet with a place saver.

Let’s hope he runs up to form…

0.5pt win 0.25pt place Quite Du Tresor 14/1

3:30

I think Mwaleshi has a decent chance in this race – and is a much bigger price than I would have expected…

He is a massively improved performer this season, having risen in the handicap from a mark of 92 in October, to a mark of 135 today !

However, he has warranted such a meteoric rise in the weights, with some spectacular performances during that time – including 3 wide margin victories…

His wining run came to an end at Haydock last time out, but there are good reasons for thinking that was just a blip, rather than the handicapper having caught up with him.

The Haydock race was run over 2m4f – the best part of half a mile further than Mwaleshi had been winning over.

Entering the home straight at Haydock, Mwaleshi still seemed to be going best, and it was only after the final hurdle that he was passed, eventually finishing fifth.

I would be optimistic that the drop back in trip today, will see him return to his upward curve.

What should also help Mwaleshi, is that he may get an uncontested lead. He is normally a fluent jumper of a hurdle – so if he can get into a rhythm up front, he could prove very hard to pass…

Today’s race doesn’t look very ‘deep’ and Brick Red looks by far the most dangerous opponent.

Like Mwaleshi, he is much improved this season and has risen 19lb in the handicap on the back of two recent victories.

However, unlike Mwaleshi, he hasn’t proved that he can cope with his most recent weight rise – or indeed with class 2 rivals. At the prices, I’m happy enough to take him on…

The other one that catches my eye, is the bottom horse, Calaf. There is a lot of guesswork involved but he is a fair flat performer, so it seems quite significant that Brian Ellison is letting him contest a class 2 handicap on just his fourth outing over hurdles…

0.5pt win Mwaleshi 10/1

In the opener on the card, Overturn should be a terrific sight, on a course and going, that will suit him perfectly.

I would expect him to win comfortably – but for it to have no bearing whatsoever on his Arkle chances…

I was half tempted to tip According to Trev in the following race (that should be a cue for you all to pile in !). It strikes me a hugely significant that Nigel and Sam Twiston Davies take one horse all the way up to Scotland – presumably in search of decent ground.

I think he will run a big race – but on the book, he has no chance of beating Aerial, which makes him a bit difficult for me to tip !

I’ll be interested to see what happens…

As I said in the introduction, there is also a fine card at Punchestown…

I’m not in the habit if tipping lots of 4/1 and 5/1 shots – but if I was, I reckon I could find one or two winners…!
Instead, I will just list my fancies, and you can do with them as you please J

In the novice hurdle at 1:20, I think Ned Butline may be capable of getting the better of Don Cossack and Mozoltov.

He was ridiculously impressive when winning his bumper – and although he was beaten first time over hurdles, I suspect there was little shame in that.

He put things right on his second outing over hurdles and could well be the sort who improves with experience.

Don Cossack comes with a lot of hype – so is likely to be shorter in the market than his form warrants and Mozoltov could prove the bigger danger over todays 2 mile trip..

I suspect it will require an act of god to see Sizing Europe beaten in the 2:20 race – even on ground softer than ideal…

20% interest on investment, isn’t a bad return for less than 5 mins ‘work’ – if you are in to that kind of thing !

There is a really intriguing cross country race at 2:50 – and all things being equal, Uncle Junior should take the beating…

However, the presence of Love Rory, means that all things might not be equal !

As a 5 year old, he gets to receive a stone and a half from Uncle Junior – and that could make things very interesting indeed.

Love Rory has never jumped a fence before under rules – however, he is trained by Enda Bolger and presumably this has always been the plan for him.

Love Rory is a name that we could well be a hearing a lot of, for many years to come…

I notice that Pricewise has tipped Alderwood  in the 3:20 race - and I must admit to having taken at bit of the 13/2 that was available yesterday evening…

4/1 was the best price this morning – but even that would look generous if the grade 1 hurdler handles the fences and the heavy ground today…

If he doesn’t, it looks a very trappy race – with Coole River, maybe the one most likely to take advantage…

Another British raider, Arbor Supreme, looks the most interesting option in the 3:50 race…

He was a highly commendable fourth in the Welsh National last time out, confirming that he is coming back to form.

At the peak of his powers, Arbor Supreme was rated 145, so off 120 today, his chance is there for all to see. 4/1 looks a very fair price…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.