Daily write-up - Feb 8th

Newcastle survived it’s morning inspection and joined Kempton and Bangor, to provide 3 NH meetings this afternoon…

I originally had 4 tips for the day – but Professuer Emery has been declared a non-runner in the first at Kempton – which is a real shame…

I was particularly looking forward to seeing him run – and although we had to take a price shorter than was available last night, it still looked like we had secured a bit of ‘value’ at 5/1…

Still, these things happen (as we know only too well !) and we are now left with 3 tips…

Two of them are at prices that I would consider close to my minimum – but I think both are competing in quite weak races.

The third appears a little more speculative – but I don’t honestly think it is !

Sure there are more runners in its race – and the price is a fair bit bigger – but I really do think it will run a big race – and may even be capable of taking the prize…

Time will tell, I guess…

Anyway, on to the rationale for todays 3 tips – starting at Kempton…

2:15

I feel like we’ve been following Nozic all season - and yet amazingly, this is the first time I’ve tipped him…

He might be 12 years old, but he’s been in tremendous form this season – and it would appear that age has not caught up with him just yet…

He has run 5 times so far this season – and 3 of them have been really big runs…

At Plumpton back in November, he looked all over the winner, until Camden collared him after the final flight. That was over 2m4f and the trip seemed to find him out that day.

He didn’t run as well next time out at Warwick, when he raced prominently, but he put that run behind him when running an absolute cracker behind the very progressive Ulk Du Lin at Ascot…

He then followed that run up by chasing home the even more progressive Williams Wishes at Sandown.

Those last 2 runs really were high class 2m handicap form – and yet Nozic was only raised 4lb in total for them…

That still leaves him on a handicap mark from which he can do some damage…

His rivals today look a relatively limited bunch…

I would hope that Kie can set the race up for Nozic, with his front running – though I’ll be a little surprised if he is still in front when it matters (despite him being favourite for the race !).

The one that concerns me most, is probably Lucy’s Legend – but she has a real in and out profile – unlike Nozic…

On balance though, I’m happy to just go with one in the race. Nozic is in great form; has ideal conditions and should get the race run to suit.

In short, he looks a very good bet !

0.5pt win Nozic 7/2

In the absence of Professeur Emery in the first, I think Manshoor looks quite interesting at a whopping 25/1…

His recent form hasn’t been great – but he won off this mark just over 12 months ago and has had a recent pipe opener on the flat.

He certainly seems to represent a bit of ‘value’ at current odds…

In the 2:50 race, Wings of Icarus looks very interesting – but is priced accordingly…

He appeared not to get home over 3 miles last time, having travelled well to that point.

The drop back in trip should help him and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him reward Timmy Murphy with a victory on his only ride of the day…

I spent quite a lot of time looking at the 4:00 race – but I struggled to find an angle I was happy with…

My interest came primarily from my desire to oppose Pete the Feat – admirable horse though he is !

However, I came to the conclusion that if he didn’t win, Renard D’Irlande was most likely to take advantage – and in terms of outsiders, Moleskin, was the one of most interest.

However, all I had managed to do was name the first 3 in the betting !

Worse still, it is possible to give a few of the others a chance - on bits and pieces of their form…

In short, a race I felt it best to swerve – though if you demanded I named the most likely winner, I would go for Renard D’Irlande…

Next to Bangor…

3:10

On first inspection, the Bangor card didn’t really grab me – however when I had a second look, an interesting angle appeared in this 3m6f chase…

The first thing to point out, is that 3m6f in heavy ground is going to be one heck of a test…

Needless to say, the original field of 17 is now down to 15 – and hence place money will be only paid out on the first 3 home.

That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if not more than 3 actually make it home !

One horse for whom the marathon trip in heavy ground, should hold no fears, is Double Dizzy…

This will actually be the shortest trip he has faced in his last 7 runs – so we can feel pretty confident that he should get home alright…

Not that I am tipping him because I believe he can be placed – I believe that he can win (and he really should be placed, at least).

On his most recent run, he finished third in the Sussex National, behind the very progressive Well Refreshed and the formally very useful Pettifour.

That was a big run – and Double Dizzy has been dropped 4lb in the handicap following it, which seems a little strange to me…

His previous run was even more meritorious, when he finished fourth in the Glenfarcas chase at the Cheltenham December meeting, off a mark of 134…

It is true that the race was run over the cross country course – but again, it showed Double Dizzy to be in very good form…

The main issue with the market leaders, Alderluck and My Boy Paddy, is that they are tackling this marathon trip for the first time – and have very big weights to hump round on desperate ground…

They might be up to the job – but on balance I am happy to oppose them.

Nodebateaboutit is probably the one I fear most – despite the fact he has been pulled up on his last 2 runs and is trying the trip for the first time !

He just looks like a class horse and when he does eventually get everything together I am sure he us going to prove much better than it currently appears.

Let’s just hope he doesn’t choose today to get things right !!

0.5pt EW Double Dizzy 14/1

And finally to Newcastle…

1:50

I have to admit that Samson Collonges is a bit of a borderline tip in this…

I intended to tip him in a weaker race at Sedgefield on Tuesday, but that meeting was abandoned.

He was a 5/1 shot last night, which made him a clear tip. However 4/1 early this morning was borderline – and 7/2 is a low as I would be prepared to go – but just about acceptable…
The thing is, I think he will win the race – and if he does and we are not on him, I will be annoyed.

It is all about value – but you can still have value in a 7/2 shot – provided it's the right horse…

Hopefully Samson Collonges is the right horse. He has already won twice this season – and yet only gone up 7lb in the handicap.

He fell last time out –but that was too early in the race to know whether he might have got his hatrick.

One of the most impressive aspects of Samson Collonges victories, is that they were achieved when the Ferdy Murphy stable was right out of form – I suspect that lean period is about to come to an end.

Samson Collonges will have absolutely no problem with today’s 3 mile trip on heavy ground – in fact, he would get even further !

He might lack a bit of pace if the race isn’t a true test – but hopefully that won’t happen…

Dingo Bay and Oddjob look the most interesting of his rivals. However the former is up in the handicap for a recent win and not guaranteed to get the trip; whilst the latter could really only be backed on the basis of his connections and unproven potential.

That said, if Samson doesn’t win, I suspect it will be Oddjob that beats him !
Lets hope that doesn’t prove to be the case !!

0.5pt win Samson Collonges 7/2

Here’s to a great day ahead – when hopefully luck will smile on us for once !

TVB.