Close of the pre-season

I’ve decided to put a ‘race review’ for today’s race on the blog, as that will enable me to tidy up the ‘pre-season’ before embarking on the real thing.

Having a ‘pre-season’ might have seemed a bit of a gimmick – but I honestly can’t overstate how useful it has been, in getting me back into things.

It is over 6 months since I last issued a tip – and whilst I continue to bet during the summer months, there is a world of difference (for me at least !) between finding horses to back (and lay) for myself – and finding tips to be issued.

Almost every day of the pre-season, I have been reminded of a lesson learnt last season and that really has been invaluable.

It should mean that I will be able to hit the ground running tomorrow, as opposed to having to get up to speed, whilst issuing tips.

Today was no exception, as I took another step down the re-learning curve, with Allanard…

As I said last night, Allanard wouldn’t have been at TVB tip at a best price of 9/4 last night. I look for at least a 20% margin in the price of my tips – and by my reckoning, Allanard was a solid 2/1 shot.

Even at 5/2 this morning, I would have teetered over whether to put him – but there is no doubt, the 10/3 SP would have been sufficient to tempt me !

Maybe it’s just as well then, that I didn’t get that chance, as Allanard ran an absolute shocker !

He was never travelling; was clumsy over a few obstacles – and was ultimately pulled up at the end of the back straight on the second circuit.

So he would have been a poor tip then ? – well, I’m not so sure…

As I said last night, according to the form book, he had an outstanding chance- and conditions today were perfect for him.

Better still, there were significant doubts over all of his rivals – in short, he almost looked rock solid.

The only really concern was whether he would have recovered from a tough race less than a week ago – and it would appear he had not.

That wouldn’t have made him a bad tip though. I have to be able to separate the tip from the result (strange as that might sound) and I’m absolutely sure that Allanard would have been a good tip at 10/3.

You have to remember, that I never considered him a certainty. By my estimation, he was a 2/1 shot – so likely to lose the race twice as often as he would have won it.

The fact he did lose today, was irrelevant as far as judging him as a tip is concerned.

Anyway, enough on Allanard – and the theory of tipping !

Suffice to say his run today can be ignored – and Buffalo Bob showed distinct promise when stating on it fourth place…

So that really is it for the pre-season – now the action will being in earnest.

I have removed the subscription option from the right hand side of the blog – the doors to the service have now officially closed !

Anyone who has missed the 2012-13 season, will have to put their name on the waiting list for the 2013-14 season and hope a place becomes available ! Obviously, that is more likely to happen if I have a bad 2012-13 season ! So suffice to say, I’m hoping that I will quickly have a very full inbox of people wanting to subscribe to next year’s service !!

TVB.

Haydock - 31st Oct

Tonight’s post is the final one this season, that I will be publishing before racing…

Tomorrow evening, the subscription service will begin and I will be emailing tips/write ups to the subscribers who have committed to the service, for the next 5 months.

I will still be posting my write ups on this blog – along with post race reviews – but this will happen after the days action has taken place.

This means that anyone who is reading the blog simply to understand my rationale for selecting a particular horse in a particular race, will still be able to get their daily ‘fix’. However, anyone who wants bet on the horses I tip, will need to subscribe to the service (and they will need to be quick, as the doors will close tomorrow evening and won’t open again until next autumn – and even then, there will be no guarantees of entrance as I want to keep tight control on the number of subscribers I have).

Before I get onto the selection for tomorrow, just a few quick words on the performance of today’s selection…

Qoubilai ran a fair race at Taunton. He led to the fourth last, but was then passed by the two market leaders, who went on to fight out the finish.

It is quite possible that Qoubilai will come on for the run – his first for 6 months – but it is equally possible that Royale’s Charter and Shooters Wood, were simply better handicapped horses on the day (which was always a chance).

Earlier on the card, Molotof managed to win the novice chase – though I’m not really sure how ! It looked as if Changing Times had his measure, until that one crashed through the fourth last. Even then Sam Twiston Davies managed to re-gather his mount and he still looked the most likely winner on the run to the last. However, AP conjured one final effort out of Molotof and he ultimately prevailed by a length.
It was a most entertaining race – though Molotof will have to improve significantly if he is to take high rank amongst this seasons novices…

So, onto tomorrow, where there is just the one domestic NH card – at Haydock…

In truth, it’s not the most inspiring of cards – though it is good to see one of my old favourites, Buffalo Bob, making his seasonal reappearance in the 3 mile chase.

Twice last season, Buffalo Bob was a maximum bet (EW) for the early bird service –and he didn’t let me down on either occasion.

I would expect him to run a fair race tomorrow – but he isn’t particularly well handicapped and I suspect the will need his first run of the new campaign.

In truth, there is a horse that stands out like a sore thumb in tomorrow’s race – and although I doubt he would ever be a TVB tip, he has to be my selection in the race.

Allanard ran a screamer on his seasonal debut at Doncaster last Friday. He looked all over the winner of that class 2 race, until Benny Be Good cut him down in the shadows of the post.

Because he was running from 6lb out of the handicap that day, Allanard gets to run from a 6lb lower mark tomorrow. He should also strip fitter for that run –and tomorrow’s race is a class lower.

The ground, trip and track should be perfect for him – so all in all, he almost looks a good thing !

The one concern would be the relative proximity of that last run. It was less than a week ago, and there is always the chance that it will have left its mark.

Assuming that isn’t the case – and that his jumping holds up over the stiff Haydock fences - then Allanard really should take all of the beating. His price of 9/4 is short – but it looks justifiable. 

I would opt for Satou as the pick of his rivals – and he has some potential as well. But all things being equal, I would expect a victory for Allanard.

Selection: Allanard 9/4

Taunton - 30th Oct

There is just a couple of days to go, before the TVB season formally gets under-way – and the tension is really starting to mount !

I’m still waiting on confirmation of email addresses from a handful of subscribers, so if you are reading this – and haven’t yet confirmed receipt of the introductory email, please do so asap !!

Today’s meetings in Ireland didn’t disappoint: with a series of interesting races – and doubtless various pointers for the upcoming season.

Unfortunately, Rathlin didn’t manage to get the better of either Hidden Cyclone or Foildubh, at Naas. He ran a reasonable enough race – the other two simply had more toe than him, up the home straight.

I won’t be giving up on him just yet though. It took him a few runs to reach peak form last season – and 2m4f in deep ground is likely to be his forte.

The other mention from last night, Finemerello, ran a sound race to finish third at Bangor.

She did ease in the betting from last night’s opening show of 7/2, eventually being sent off 11/2 co favourite.

Approaching the second last hurdle, she looked the most likely winner of the race. However she didn’t quite get home and had to settle for a placing.

There could well be other days for her…

The card at Taunton tomorrow, is similar to the one from Bangor today: potentially interesting – but hardly spectacular !

That said, there are a couple of races in which I would be prepared to take a view…

The first of these is the novice chase, which is due off at 2:30.

In all probability, Molotof will start a very short priced favourite for this – but I’m not sure it will be a penalty kick for him…

First off, he will be making his chasing and seasonal debut; and secondly, he will be faced by some reasonable opposition…

Changing Times and Bally Legend will both have the advantage of being race fit – though the distance is a little on the short side for both. However, I can see Changing Time getting an aggressive ride from Sam Twiston Davies, in which case, Molotof is likely to be subjected to a fair test.

The other one that really catches my eye, is Ballygarvey. He has his first start for Philip Hobbs tomorrow, having previously been in the care of Henrietta Knight.

As with Changing Times and Bally Legend, the trip is likely to be a little on the short side for him tomorrow - but I will be keeping a close eye on him, with regard to the future…

4:00

The other race of real interest tomorrow, is the handicap chase which is due off at 4:00.

There are 11 runners, but I’m struggling to give too many of them much of a chance.

The 2 market principals look quite strong – and victory for either would not be a big surprise.

However, at 3/1 the pair, they take out 50% of the book, which seems about right to me…

Of the other 9, I am most interested in Quobilai – and he looks over-priced to me, at 10/1.

He has only run 3 times in this country: finishing runner up on his British debut, before wining a 5 runner chase at Wetherby.

His handicap mark was hiked up 16lb for that victory and yet despite that, he was sent off a very strong 9/4 favourite in a class 2 race next time out.

That suggests to me, that somebody thinks the horse has serious ability…

He set off too quickly that day and didn’t get home – but I’m prepared to ignore that run.

He has been eased back 3lb in the ratings and runs in a class 3 contest tomorrow.

With a summer on his back, I think there is a distinct possibility that tomorrow, he could pick up from where he left off at Wetherby.

Selection: Quobiai 10/1

Update

It was disappointing to see Wyse Hill Teabags withdrawn this morning – particularly bearing in mind how the short priced favourite for his race, Vendor, bombed completely.

As I said last night, I had been waiting a long time for him to reappear over hurdles – and I’m sure he would have been well suited by the rain softened ground.

Hopefully there will be other opportunities for him – though it would appear that he isn’t the soundest of horses, which is always a concern in NH racing…

That left just Falcon Island as a selection for the day – and unlike Wyse Hill Teabags, he would not have been particularly suited by the very soft ground.

Despite that, he ran a tremendous race to finish third –and I’m absolutely sure he would have gone very close to winning, had the rain stayed away…

Still, these things happen – and with the new season on the horizon, it was a timely reminder that I need to keep half an eye on the weather (the ground was riding quick at Aintree yesterday).

It was also a reminder of the dangers of EW betting. I would have been very tempted to put up Falcon Island EW, as I saw holes in a few of his rivals – and it was a 9 horse race (it was last night, anyway !),.

However, 2 NRs this morning, would have meant that only first or second would have been paid out…

Over at Wincanton: Whilst it would be easy with hindsight, to think I got the call on Minella Stars right – I’m not sure it is really that clear cut.
The horse was backed down to 5/2 fav, from an 9/2 last night.

He may have finished well beaten – but if you can find horses that all but half in price having begun at less than 5/1, it is difficult to think you won’t make money in the long run…

That said, I felt the race was competitive last night –and that was how it looked in-running today – so in hard terms, 9/2 wasn’t a great bet.

Anyway, enough of today !

There is a reasonable meeting taking place at Bangor – and my first ’eye catcher’ of the season is running in 4:00 race…

A good percentage of my tips, are horses that I have spotted running promising races, which I think the general public may have missed.

I was pretty sure that Finmerello was one such horse, when he ran promisingly at Market Rasen last time.

Ultimately, he finished a well beaten fifth, but he showed up very well that day, until the second last hurdle.

Tomorrow, he gets to run in a handicap for the first time, off a very fair looking mark of 90.

Against 13 rivals –and with a row off ‘duck eggs’ against his name, I was expecting a double figure price. Instead, B365 have marked him up as their 7/2 favourite!!

I suspect he will drift tomorrow and may well reach double that price. If that is the case, he might be worth a small interest.

I just hope my future eye catchers turn out to be a little darker than him !!

Anyway, the Bangor card might be OK, but it simply pales into insignificance against the cards that are being put on at Galway and Naas in Ireland ! I’m guessing it’s a public holiday over there !!

The Naas card in particular, is an absolute cracker – and the chase that takes place at 1:25, would be worth travelling a fair way to see…

Hidden Cyclone remains a potential star; and Foildubh has some serious ability – but, assuming the ground is ‘Irish’ soft, I think Rathlin will take the world of beating – even over a trip short of his best.

He is 7/2 with PP this evening, so there is a chance he might get to 4/1 tomorrow.

If that proves to be the case, he would definitely be worth a wager…

Finally: Later this evening, I will email everyone who has already subscribed to the 2012-2013 season service. The purpose of the email will be to provide a little more detail on the mechanics of the service – and to test out the distribution list that I will be using. If you have subscribed to the service and don’t receive an email this evening, please contact me tomorrow and let me know.

TVB

Aintree - 28th Oct

The second day of Aintree’s 2 day meeting might not have quite the quality or depth of day 1 – but it still has a couple of very interesting races…

1:10

I’ve been waiting a long time for Wyse Hill Teabags to run over hurdles…

Last time he was sighted over the smaller obstacles, it was at this course last December, in a race won by Featherbed Lane, from Reindeer Dippin.

That was really strong handicap hurdle form – and Wyse Hill Teabags was sent off a well backed favourite.

Unfortunately, he picked up an injury during the race and was not seen out again until making his chasing debut at Perth at the back end of last month.

He unseated his rider in that event, when still going OK – but at least the run should have served to blown away the cobwebs.

In fairness, tomorrow’s race looks pretty competitive – and the favourite, Vendor, really could be anything. That said, everyone is fully aware of his potential – and so I suspect he will be over backed.

There are other potential dangers in the race – but the bottom line is, that Wyse Hill Teabags has very strong form and if he is back to his best tomorrow, I think he will run a huge race.

Selection: Wyse Hill Teabags 11/1

3:25

This is another fiercely competitive race – but I think it might be worth taking a chance on Falcon Island…

He was progressive for Colin Tizzard last season and as a 7 year old, there is reason to believe that progression will continue this season.

He will be better suited to the 2 mile trip on decent ground, than will be many of his rivals – and it is worth taking a chance on his fitness, as his stable could hardly be in better form.

Dangers abound; with both well handicapped horses and progressive horses, making up most of the field.

However, at a best price of 16/1 Falcon Island is worth a small risk.

Selection: Falcon Island

There is a second domestic NH meeting tomorrow, taking place at Wincanton.
The racing there does not have the quality of the Aintree meeting, but the Desert Orchid chase, off at 1:55 is a fair race.

I’ve mentioned my desire to include a few shorter priced tips, when the service gets underway (the likes of Pasco, today) and there is a potential ‘shortie’ in this race, whom I could be interested in…

The horse in question is Minella Stars – and I would price him up a little shorter than the 9/2 on offer this evening.

However, it is a tricky race – in which it is difficult to categorically rule out any of the runners. I have therefore decide not to make Minella Stars a selection for tomorrow.

I’ll be intrigued to see how he performs, all the same…!

TVB.

Review of the day

I didn’t intend to produce a ‘review of the day’ today – after all, I’m not actually tipping yet ;)

However, at the end of an excellent day’s action, I feel moved to write a few words…

As hoped, Aintree provided the best entertainment of the day (though the final few races were a little surreal, with the low sun seeing more and more obstacles ommited).

The day’s outstanding performance, was undoubtedly put up by For Non Stop, who absolutely routed the field in the Old Roan chase.

He was a progressive novice last season, but even so, it was difficult to foresee such an emphatic victory. If he continues his progression, he will soon become a major player at the highest level.

It also made me wonder just how good Sir Des Champs is ?! He treated For Non Stop with total contempt, when he won at the Cheltenham festival. There could certainly be exciting times ahead for that horse…

The selection in the race, Mahogany Blaze, ran a fair race to finish fifth. He did briefly look like he might snatch third – but he had no more to offer from the second last.

Earlier on the card however, Pasco showed precisely how my selections should perform ;)

He romped home in the 2m4f chase and whilst luck favoured him a little (Lexicon Lad was baulked by a faller 4 fences from home), I suspect he would have won whatever.

A hike back up the weights will undoubtedly follow – though I suspect he could remain competitive off a mark a good deal higher…

In the opener, I was glad I didn’t get suckered into selecting Empire Levant…

He was backed into a ridiculously short price – but was well beaten with half a mile to run.

Ironically, the race was won by the original favourite, Cape Express. He sauntered home by 8 lengths at the very generous price of 9/2.

The other big race on the card was the veterans chase, where Nikola performed very disappointingly.

The race was won by Marufo, ridden by the often maligned Richard Johnson.

If you didn’t see the ride, you should take a few minutes to watch the closing stages. I swear that absolutely no other jockey in the weighing room would have got him over the last and up the run-in as Johnson did.

Maligned he might be – but if I could get him on board of every one of my runners who had a chance coming down to the last, I would grab it with both hands !!

Over at Stratford, Requin jumped like a goat – and ultimately paid the penalty.

It’s no good wondering how he might have fared if he had jumped better, the fact is, if he continues to jump as he did today, he’ll not win another chase !

There is some work for Victor Dartnell to do in that department, I think…

Finally, over at Chepstow, Plein Pouvoir ran precisely as I expected him to do.

He is a magnificent jumper of a fence – but he is also the most one paced horse you are ever likely to see !
He will drop a few pounds for today’s run: and hopefully the ground will get softer as the season progresses. I feel there is still another victory in him, under the right conditions – and if that day arrived in the next 5 months, rest assured we will be right behind him ;)

TVB 

Selections - 27th Oct

Looking at tomorrow’s cards, there can be little doubt that the pendulum has swung - and from now until Cheltenham, NH is going to be the dominate code !

The Channel  4 cameras are still focusing on the flat action at Doncaster and Newbury – but is anyone really going to be interested in the result of Racing Post Trophy, when an amazing looking field has been assembled for the Old Roan chase ?!

And it’s not just Aintree that is hosting top class NH action tomorrow – there is also an excellent card at Chepstow – and a few decent looking races at Stratford.

It’s been great to see my old favourites out running again this week. On Monday, it was Pocket Aces (my most tipped horse from last season !); whilst on Tuesday, Sophonie made her debut for Tom George – and tomorrow, my favourite of the lot, Plein Pouvior, reappears at Chepstow,

However, a little like the other two, I will be surprised if he makes a successful reappearance…

Chepstow may be his course; and top weight over 2 and a half miles, his conditions – but I doubt the ground will really be soft enough for him and he’s never previously been at his peak first time out.

I will be taking a watching brief, with a view to following him again, later in the season…

The whole Chepstow card strikes me as one to be viewed without major financial interest. However, essential viewing it almost certainly will be, as a host of potentially promising horses will be on show throughout the afternoon.

Stratford can’t claim the quality of Chepstow, but it can claim one very interesting race, in particular…

The handicap chase at 2:50, looks like a real screamer…

The market is likely to be dominated by the dark horses, Ulck Du Lin (trained by Paul Nicholls) and Kateal (ridden by AP McCoy).

Either could well be good enough to hack up – but the most interesting betting proposition, is the Victor Dartnell trained Requin.

His seasonal debut last year, was marred by a fall. However that took place in a class 1 chase at Ascot and he was in a very creditable third place at the time.
He gets to run off a 5lb lower mark and showed that day, he is capable of performing well when fresh.

Victor Dartnell invariably starts the season in good form and this year is no exception.

The sensible call is EW, but a wager on Requin, is certainly the value call at close to double figures.

Selection: Requin 9/1 (EW)

By far the best meeting of the day however, is at Aintree.

For the time of year, they have put on a truly outstanding card, with significant interest in just about every race….

In the opener, I was initially drawn to Empire Levant – but it would appear that everyone else has been as well !!

He has already almost halved in price and whilst he could still have the potential to take this, even off top weight, I am mindful of the fact that this is likely to be a pipe-opener for a campaign over fences. At the current prices, I am more interested in Agent Archie.
Whilst at face value, he was disappointing on his seasonal debut at Stratford, I think he might have needed that run and would expect him to put in an improved performance tomorrow.

A quote of 11/1 from Sky bet, looks quite tempting…

In the veterans chase, I was very interesting in Nikola – but expected bigger than the 5/1 on offer.

I guess that is being impacted by the fact he won this very race last season  - and off a higher mark.

He could easily do the same thing tomorrow – but I just don’t see much of a margin in the price, as the race looks quite open and there is a lot of guesswork involved concerning the fitness of all of the runners…

My second selection of the day, is in the 2m4f chase at 2:55.

Pasco was trained by Paul Nicholls last season and started that campaign off a mark of 146. He didn’t actually run that badly in his 4 outings, so I really don’t understand why the handicapper has chosen to drop him to a mark of 130…

That really could be a gift – and I fully expect his new trainer, Colin Tizzard, to try and take advantage of it. He’s put top apprentice Brendan Powell on board, which takes another 3lb off the horse’s back.

There is a possibility that Lexicon Lad or Sizing Santiago, will improve past Pasco this season -  but he sets a pretty high standard and strikes me as very good value at the current prices.

Selection: Pasco 9/2

The Monets Garden Old Roan chase, is an absolute cracker ! So many old favourites lining up – and the season is barely underway.

The first thing that strikes me about the race, is that there could be an abundance of pace.

Wishful Thinking, Stagecoach Pearl, Nacarat and Mad Max, have all run their best races, when forcing the pace.

Of the quintet, Nacarat is the one most likely to be successful in the race for the lead – but that scenario rarely favours any of those who could be involved…

It looks hugely significant, that Pual Nolan has chosen this race as the season opener for Noble Prince.

He was vying for favouritism for the RyanAir chase for most of last season, suggesting that he should be well handicapped off a mark of 158.

I would have him down as the most likely winner – and a price of 13/2 seems fair enough.

If it weren’t for the pace angle, I could certainly be interested in Mad Max – and his price of 25/1 is potentially huge, if the race unfolds in his favour.

However, the other than that catches my eye, is Mahogany Blaze. He has always been a very good – if not top class animal – and he performed particularly well, last time out..I suspect this 2m4f trip is now his optimum and sneaking in off bottom weight, I can see him running a massive race.
Hand on heart, I think something (probably Noble Prince) will have too much class for him. However at 20/1 (5/1 a place) he just has to be the EW selection.

Selection: Mahogany Blaze 20/1 (EW)

So there it is: a thoroughly absorbing days racing awaits.

Let’s hope that the racing turned out to as good as it looks – and the selections perform to the level expected.

If that is the case, you won’t be getting any grumbles from me !!
TVB.

Service update

Whilst it wasn’t an official selection, I hope a few of you were on Pires today (I know that at least 2 of you were).

Win, lose or draw today, he is the kind of tip that I want to include more of in the service.

It’s all well and good getting 14/1 winners (or runners-up !) – but by their nature, they don’t come round that often. I’m hoping that the likes of Pires will be able to keep things ticking over a bit better – thereby enabling people to sit a little more comfortably whilst following the TVB adventure.

He actually would have been a challenge to tip, as only 2 bookmakers had priced up the race yesterday evening (and I’ve said I want a minimum of 5 to have priced up a race before I tip in it). He was a best price of 3/1 this morning – which would have been a borderline call. Hopefully I would have swayed in the right direction !

I’m sure that a few of you will have noticed that I’ve removed the ‘single month’ option from the subscription options on the right hand side.

In truth, it was there mainly as a security blanket for me, in case I didn’t get sufficient subscribers for the full season, to make the effort worthwhile. By having a monthly option, it would enable others to join in after a month or two, once they had been able to see how things were going…

Pleasingly however, I now know that I will have sufficient subscribers for the full season – and I am therefore taking away the monthly option (I can certainly live without the extra admin that it would have created !).

I said in my initial post that I would take on anyone who subscribed to either of the Specials last season – and I will honour that statement.

However, I am getting close to the target 30 people, committed to the full 5 months, so I won’t be taking on board too many more…

The door will be closed on November 1^st : anyone who is on board, is onboard for the duration – everyone else will just have to sit on a waiting list and hope they get opportunity next season !

Finally, there will not be any more blog posts before next weekend.

I’m going away for a few days (it’s half term where I live) and whilst I will have some mobile connectivity, it will be limited (far too limited to consider blogging !).

Still, I’m back on Friday so I should be able to post thoughts for the weekend cards at Chepstow and Aintree (which are likely to be the final dress rehearsal before the real event kicks off).

Please also bear in mind my absence if you email me over the next few days. I’ll try to respond if I can – but no promises !

Until Friday then…

TVB.

Review of the day

This pre-season is providing a few more lessons/reminders than I had expected !

After a couple of education points earlier in the week – I got a reminder of the biggest blight to my tipping career to date: second-itis !!

I suffered from this complaint last season, when I got almost twice as many runners-up as I did winners – and I’ve started off on the same footing this time round !

As I mentioned a few times last season, it is not an unfamiliar position for me to find myself in. I did some tipping early in 2010 and managed to tip 11 runners-up from 23 selections – all at very decent prices…

Obviously, it is something I’ve given a lot of thought to – both why it should happen – and how I can overcome it…

In terms of why it should happen, it’s difficult for me to explain (other than blame it on bad luck !). It is true, that betting at the odds I do, you should get more runners up than winners (my horses would invariably start a shorter price to finish second in a race, than they would to win – if such a book existed !) – but that doesn’t really explain my phenomenal strike rate on seconds…

I therefore have to accept that it is just one of those things – and figure out how best to overcome it.

From a personal perspective, I overcome it by laying my horses IR, at around even money. Therefore if they go close to winning, I usually ensure I don’t lose – and sometimes I even win !

From a tipping perspective, however, that isn’t really an option.

The only option open to me is to recommend EW betting. Whilst I will do that occasionally, I’m loathed to as a matter of course – as checking my records, despite the way results tend to fall, I would be significantly worse off if I had adopted this method.

Anyway, enough of that !!

Suffice to say that both Easter Meteor and Galaxy Rock ran cracking races (Tartak ran also ran pretty well). Galaxy Rock in particular look sure to prevail – losing out only to a power packed Richard Johnson ride on the ultra-game Balthazaar King (in fairness, if anyone was going to pip us, I would have chosen him !).

The mentions didn’t do too badly either: Our Vinnie was hammered down to 9/4 fav from 8/1 last night but was outbattled by According to Trev; Dodging Bullets is no longer the best maiden hurdler in training !; and Third Intention looked sure to make a winning chasing debut, but was run out of it by His Excellency, up the Cheltenham hill.

And so ended the first Cheltenham meeting of the new season.

I can honestly say it was as good an opening meeting as I can recall (and I’ve been watching them for many years !).

As I said yesterday, the handicaps in particular are going to be full of future winners and should be studied in detail !

I haven’t got any previews for tomorrow.

There is just the one domestic NH card at Kempton – and whilst it is OK, it’s a bit of a come down from the action of the past couple of days (and I can’t see any obvious angles).

The best NH race of the day actually takes place at Cork in Southern Ireland.

I’ve shied away from tipping in Irish racings in the past, but I think I will occasionally venture down that path this season (which should please one or two of the guys who have already committed to the service; ) )

The one that really catches the eye (and when I say really, I mean really) is the Tony Martin trained Pires.

Paddy Power have opened up with him as 7/2 favourite – and if you can get that price, I would be very tempted.

It might be an exaggeration to say that he has only got to jump round to win – but not much of a one !!

Finally, although I specialise in NH racing, the last word of the day, has to go to a flat horse.

Of course, he is not just any old flat horse, he is probably the best flat horse any of us will ever see.

I remain adamant that conditions were completely against Frankel today; he also missed the break in bizarre fashion; and yet he was still able to cruise up alongside the second best flat horse in the world at furlong marker, looking as if he had just joined in !

To watch him over the past 2 seasons has been an absolute pleasure. I will never forget seeing him destroy the field in the 2000 guineas, on the big screen at Thirsk racecourse. I honestly couldn’t believe what I was witnessing…

Next flat season will be hollow without him – it’s a good job we’ve got a full NH to look forward to before that point ;)

TVB

Cheltenham - 20th Oct

Today’s racing at Cheltenham fully lived up to the expectations of last night.

There were some tremendous races – and some noteworthy performances – the best probably served up by The New One, who took the opening hurdle in convincing style.

The pundits on RUK were mocking the post race quote of 16/1 for the Neptune Investment hurdle – but I’m not so sure…

He was a very classy bumper horse last season and could well make up into an even better hurdler. Let’s put it this way, I’ve seen less attractive ante-post bets…

Following on from his victory, Carlito Brigante won a thriller in the 2m4f novice chase – where King of the Night was probably let down by his fencing inexperience.

The big hurdle race was won by Action Master.

Despite being a huge drifter, Secret Tune ran really well until lack of stamina seemed to tell from the third last. He could be very interesting, dropped back half a mile.
Sivola De Sivola also ran well, to finish fourth – though he looks like he needs more of a trip. He maybe won’t fully come into his own until he is sent over fences…

Sire Collonges got the better of Sea of Thunder in the 3mile novice chase; whilst Court Minstrel was an impressive winner of the maiden hurdle.

The penultimate race was won by Hunters Lodge, who got the kind of luck, that seems to elude all TVB tips ! Whilst Dark Lover was an impressive winner of the finale, overcoming a long absence form the track, in the process…

All in all then, a terrific days racing and one which I’m sure will yield countless winners over the coming months. I certainly plan to re-watch all of the races over the weekend…

And so on to tomorrow…

Once again, the Cheltenham races have a bit of a scarey look about them ! I think it is primarily going to be about getting pointers for the future rather than winners on the day.

That said, I think I’ve found one decent selection – and I’ve taken a couple of stabs at one of the other races…

3:40

At this time of year, fitness is all important.

No less than 15 of the 20 runners in this race, haven’t run for at least 100 days. Ofcourse, that doesn’t mean that non of them will be fit – it might even suit some of them – but generally, speaking, it would have to be considered disadvantageous…

Galaxy Rock had a run just a fortnight ago. That was over hurdles and was clearly designed to blow away the cobwebs before he tackled his main targets over the bigger obstacles.

The first of those comes up tomorrow and he has ticks in sufficient boxes to overcome the slight concern over whether the trip will be far enough for him…

He won the staying handicap at the Cheltenham November meeting last season, off a mark just 2lb lower than he races off tomorrow.

That was a top class performance as he had the likes of Carruthers and Hey Big Spender well beaten.

Galaxy Rock requires top of the ground to be seen at his best - but he should just about get that tomorrow. He also gets the assistance of AP McCoy in the saddle – and the blinkers which he has sported on most of his best runs.

It looks to me as if he has been targeted at this race – and the 12/1 on offer this evening is a very fair price.

Selection: Galaxy Rock 12/1

2:30

This is another fiendishly difficult race to unravel – and I’m going to take 2 against the field…

Despite carrying top weight, Tartak is well handicapped in this race. He is a graded performer at his best – and hopefully Tim Vaughan will have returned him to something close to that level.

Certainly tomorrow’s conditions will suit him well: 2m4f on decent ground – and although he has a big weight, he is a huge horse, so it shouldn’t be an issue for him

He won the 2m4f handicap run at Cheltenham on new years day, the season before last – and that was from a mark 2lb higher.

If he is fit and well for his seasonal debut he really should run a big race.

The other one I want on side in the race, is Easter Meteor.

He was a progressive novice last season, who had the misfortune to bump into Sanctuair and Hunt Ball in 2 of his last 3 outings.
Needless to say, he didn’t cut much ice against that pair, but he won his final outing of the campaign, thereby maintaining his progressive profile.

His success on his seasonal debut last year gives hope that he will be fit enough tomorrow – and it is also hoped that his jumping inexperience doesn’t catch him out over Cheltenham’s tricky fences.

If that proves to be the case, then he has the potential to be a fair bit better than his current mark of 130.

Selections: Tartak 16/1, Easter Meteor 14/1

Outisde of those 2 races, Our Vinnie looks interesting in the opener; whilst Dodging Bullets really should take the beating in the 3:05 and it will be fascinating to watch Third Intention jump a fence in the 4:05.

In summary, another day to savour…

Finally, I can’t sign off this evening, without giving mention to Champions day, which is taking place at Ascot – and in particular the final racecourse appearance of Frankel.

I had to admit to being a huge fan of the horse (who couldn’t be) – but I really fear for him tomorrow…

At the highest level, race horses really need most things in their favour to win big races (despite what official marks might say, the difference in ability between the very best isn’t that great).

Whilst I have little doubt that Frankel is the best race horse in the race – I also have even less doubt that 1m2f on soft/heavy ground is not his optimum conditions.

He might get way with it in a lesser race, but he has 3 serious rivals to contend with in the form of Cirrius Des Aigles, Nathaniel and Pastorius – and unfortunately for Frankel, all 3 are likely to be better suited to tomorrow’s prevailing conditions, than will he…

I actually think that the connections of Nathaniel have missed a trick. If they had employed a pace maker and turned the race into a war of attrition, I really could see Frankel getting beaten, Instead, the only pacemaker in the race, is there for Frankel’s benefit !

Let’s just hope that Tom Queally gets his fractions right – and that Frankel accepts restraint – because if he doesn’t I really do fear the worst…

Elsewhere on a tremendous card, Most Improved looks interesting in the Queen Elizabeth II stakes, with Fallon replaced by Hughes. Most Improved won well over course and distance at the Royal meeting – and has had excuses for his last 2 performances (a shocking ride from Fallon being the most recent !).

We don’t know yet whether he is truly from the top drawer – but 25/1 to find out, seems like a fair price !!

TVB

Cheltenham - 19th Oct

I may not have given any selections for today’s racing – but it still proved to be a useful day in the pre-season build-up…

The only horse I considered selecting last night, was Award Winner. He was a best priced 3/1 yesterday evening – but I felt there was a chance that he would be well backed and outclass his rivals today.

That was exactly what happened, with him being backed down to 5/4 at the off (admittedly with a significant NR) – and then simply toying with the opposition in the race itself…

In truth, he never would have been a tip – but it reminded me of a couple of important points: firstly, I must avoid not tipping a horse simply because it’s price is too short. I almost have a mental floor of 5/1, and I’m not loathed to tip anything below that price. As I was reminded today, value can come at much shorter odds – provided the case is sound and the opposition weak.

The other useful reminder, was that I shouldn’t steer clear of horses which I feel might be subject to ‘insider’ gambles (maybe with the exception of Barney Curley horses !!). I remember last year, being very cautious about a few Ferdy Murphy horses – and they all ran exactly as I expected. Today, I was apprehensive of a J P McManus owned horse – but it dotted up, as I thought it might…

Anyway, enough of today’s lessons and on to tomorrow’s action !

The season curtain raiser at Cheltenham, really is a cracker.

A few years back, this was a non-descript mid-week meeting, that tended to barely cause a ripple. But the executive have worked their magic: moved it to a weekend slot; improved the quality of the races – and now they have a meeting worthy of the course.

I was a bit spoilt for choice as to which race to focus on: there are 4 interesting novice events: 2 over hurdles and 2 over fence; plus 3 ultra-competitive handicaps: 2 over hurdles and 1 over the bigger obstacles.

The New One should take some beating in the first – but will be priced accordingly. The other novice hurdle, at 4:30, looks far more difficult to unravel and victory for any member of the field wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

King of the Night looks very interesting for rooky trainer Harry Fry, in the novice chase at 2:45; whilst Sea of Thunder is likely to take some beating in the other novice chase, at 3:55 (though I could also see Tour Des Champs running well).

However, all 4 races really need to be watched closely with a view to the season ahead…

In the handicap chase at 5:05, I’m draw to Hunters Lodge and Time for Spring. I would have a slight preference for the former – but don’t think there is a lot of margin in the early quote of 6/1.

In the finale, Vapiano is really eye-catching with bottom weight and is quite tempting at 14/1: more conventionally, Scottish Boogie should run well, but a quote of 10/1 is quite tight.

However, the one selection for the day, runs in the handicap hurdle at 3:20…

When I saw the declarations for this race, my eyes were drawn to 2 runners: Sivola De Sivola and Secret Tune.

Unfortunately, the bookmakers have also noticed Sivola De Sivola and he is 6/1 joint favourite.

Secret Tune on the other hand, seems to have slipped through the net – for the time being at least..!

He was a beaten favourite at this meeting last season, when he finished third in a handicap hurdle on the Saturday. Following that run, he was transferred into the care of Charlie Longsdon and when he was next seen, he put up an improved performance to win an AW bumper at Kempton.

He has only run 4 times since then and has won one of those, on the flat. He was last seen a month ago when he ran in the Cesarewitch trial at Newmarket – a race that should have set him up nicely for tomorrow.

Ofcourse, tomorrow’s race won’t be easy – there are 20 runners for a start – including some unknown quantities. There is also some concern over the distance of 3 miles, which is unknown territory for Secret Tune.

However, he will be fit; relatively indifferent to ground conditions - and is handicapped to go very close.

I might be tempted to back him EW – but back him I certainly will !

Selection: Secret Tune 20/1 (EW)

…

Review of the day

One of the important things about pre-season friendlies, is that they enable you to assess condition – and I think it is fair to say, that I appear to be in similar condition to that which I spent most of last season in !

The 2 selections for today, were backed like crazy: I wasn’t surprised with Sherwani Wolf, who was strong last night and ultimately went off a well backed 3/1 favourite: L’Eldorado was far more surprising however. He was 14/1 last night – and still that price this morning. However he was the subject of a sustained punt and ended up going off 5/1 third favourite.

Alas, both horses showed (as if a demonstration was needed), that there is a big difference between finding an over-priced horse – and finding a winner.

L’Eldorado ran a fair race, but never looked like winning. The race was dominated by 2 horses: Cool Touch (who I fancied) and Tiptoeaway (who I didn’t).

Ultimately, it was the latter who prevailed – though the former was probably the moral victor, as he ran too free and was very erratic.

Interestingly, Tiptoeaway was 7/2 joint favourite when the early prices were issued – but was returned an 8/1 shot…

Sherwani Wolf was more disappointing. He didn’t jump particularly well and never looked likely to justify the market confidence. His race was won, in quite spectacular style, by Alvarado. He was also the subject of early support yesterday, though this dried up as the off time approached.

So, an interesting first exchange of the season…

Positives can be taken out of it – but improvement needs to be made !

Alas, that improvement is not going to come tomorrow.

There are a couple of NH meetings, at Uttoxeter and Wincanton respectively – but non of the races at either meeting, really grab me.

The novice handicap hurdle which will be run at Wincanton at 4:20, looks like a potentially interesting race – however trying to find the winner of it, is a completely different matter…

I thought Caulfields Venture was over-priced at an opening 25/1 – but the bookmakers soon sorted that out ! Castletown Bridge is also potentially interesting, at a shorter price – but ultimately, I think this is a race to watch rather than bet in.

Earlier on the card, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Award Winner hack up in the handicap hurdle at 3:20.

He is certainly weighted to do so – and with the first time visor and as McCoys only ride for JP McManus, don’t be surprised to see the money come…

He was 4/1 early with B365 – and is now 3/1. However, if tomorrow is the day, I could see his SP being nearer to even money !

Unfortunately, following him would be guesswork on my behalf – and whilst I’ve no issue with that if the odds offer sufficient reward, a price of 3/1 is not really going to make you rich…

Instead, I will wait until Friday, and the first day of Cheltenham’s new season. Once that is upon us, we really know the winter game has begun !!

Wetherby - 18th Oct

It’s great to have some decent NH racing back.

The meeting at Chepstow on Saturday, was an absolute cracker –and whilst tomorrow’s card at Wetherby isn’t quite in that class, it’s not too bad, for a Wednesday…

There are 2 races, in particular, where I feel there might be an angle: the 2 mile chase at 2:50 and the 2m4f chase at 3:55…

2:50

I’m a big fan of Tara Royale. He did TVB followers a favour last February, when hacking up at Mussleburgh. He gets to run off a mark just 4lb higher tomorrow, so has a great theoretical chance. However, I have 2 concerns over him: he is quite small to be lugging round 11st12lb – and he has an unfortunate tendency to not complete on his seasonal debut ! At around 5//1, I’m prepared to pass on him.

I’m also prepared to pass on Riguez Dancer due to fitness concerns – and Tiptoeaway for the same reason (even if with slightly less conviction).

Sports Line would have hacked up in this a few years back, but no longer seems to be the same horse; whilst Temple Lord just looks a bit ‘exposed’ (though his proven fitness could give him an edge tomorrow)…

That leaves 3: Quite the Man, L’Eldorado and Cool Touch.

Quite the Man looks the safest option – and most likely winner – but he is priced accordingly at 4/1.

Cool Touch looks interesting and would seem to have potential for improvement – but the bookmakers have been wise to that and put him in at a cautious looking 6/1.

The selection therefore, is L’Eldroado. He won on his seasonal debut last year when taking a novice chase at Hexham.

That wasn’t the first time he had run well after a break and I suspect that this exuberant sort runs best when fresh.

He has actually got a verdict over Quite the Man to his credit – admittedly over hurdles – and is better off at the weights tomorrow.

I don’t honestly think that is particularly relevant – but it is interesting, when you see the disparity in their respective odds.

I n summary, whilst his case isn’t water tight, L’Eldorado makes reasonable appeal at the 14/1 on offer

Selection: L’Eldorado 14/1

3:55

Unlike the previous race, this race is all about one horse: Sherwani Wolf…

I can’t think of too many promising horses that have left the care of Nigel Twiston Davies – but this one has. Furthermore, it’s not been sold, so I’m guessing the owner feels it is capable of achieving more than it has done so far…

Ofcourse, I’m only guessing – but it seems a reasonable asumption, as the horse has certainly threatened to deliver far more than he has done so far…

On his seasonal debut last year, he was the only horse to give Invictus a race. That animal is now rated 149, whilst Sherwani Wolf gets to run off a mark of 120 tomorrow…

The other thing that would make Sherwani Wolf a good bet, is the paucity of opposition he faces tomorrow…

The current market leaders, Gansey and Pigeon Island, are thoroughly exposed chasers; and whilst I’ve always been a fan of Eastlake, he is threatening to become an underachiever.

Outside of these 3, it is difficult to make a concrete case for too many – though the danger at this time of year, is that horses can find significant improvement out of nowhere.

In short though: we know Sherwani Wolf goes well fresh; we know he has plenty of ability – and we can be pretty sure his new trainer, Charlie Longsdon will want to make a good impression on the owners. With credible opponents limited, Sherwani Wolf would be quite a strong selection – and I would fully expect his price to shorten !

Selection: Sherwani Wolf 6/1

Pre-season friendlies...

To help me get my eye in before 1^st November – and to keep the blog ticking over, I’ll be posting the odd race preview on here over the next couple of weeks (I’m away for most of next week, so it won’t be happening every day)…

I won’t be issuing tips – but if I strongly fancy something in a particular race, I’ll say so !

I’ll look to publish the previews early evening – regardless of whether the race has been priced up (I’ll produce my own tissue if it hasn’t).

I won’t be emailing the write-ups to anyone – they will only appear on the blog.

Hopefully you will find this of interest –and it will act to whet the appetite for the months ahead…

The first preview(s) will appear this evening, for tomorrow’s card at Wetherby…

TVB.

Subscription service for the 2012-2013 NH season

It feels a long time since the springtime highs and lows of Cheltenham and Aintree…

The meetings were epitomised by one horse: Synchronised. So gallant battling up the Cheltenham hill to take the 2012 Gold Cup; only to lose his life at the Aintree fences, less than a month later. Alas, that is the nature of NH racing. You tend only to get extreme excitement, when extreme risks are involved…

By comparison, the next 7 sporting months have chugged by with very little of note occurring…

Ofcourse there was the Olympics – and prior to that, I vaguely recall the European Championships. Plus, I guess, there was the Tour de France victory for the charismatic Bradley Wiggins; and a first Open tennis championship for the slightly less charismatic Andy Murray (though I don't begrudge him it).

Whilst in the flat racing world, Frankel has completely dominated. How good it would be to see him contesting the 2013 Champion Hurdle ;)

But now autumn has come back round: the days are getting shorter and nights longer – and the 2012-2013 NH season is about to begin in earnest !

As doubtless a fair number of you will recall, I blogged throughout the 2011-2012 NH season.

On most days, for 4 and a half months, from the beginning of November to the middle of March. I produced over 180 posts, giving 148 tips in 140 races and producing a profit of 52 points on 159 staked. 

When it was all over, I said I would use the summer months to decide where I took the TVB adventure – and that is what I’ve done.

At the end of last season, I did a couple of ‘specials’ for the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals.

I made a small charge for both, to help justify the amount of time involved in producing them and despite the mixed results (Cheltenham was a success; Aintree less so !), I think the concept worked well.

Consequently, I would like to try and build on this for the forthcoming season and offer a relatively low cost subscription service.

Everyone who was around last season, should now have a fair idea of what I will produce (tips, rationale & reviews) – and anyone who wasn’t but who is interested, can always check out the TVB.earlybird blog.

In summary, the service this season will consist of the following:

- It will run from the start of November, to the end of March - so 5 months.

- I will offer tips mainly on the better class races (I would expect almost half of the tips to be issued on Saturdays) - but also on other days, if the races are there and the markets sufficiently strong.

- I will tip roughly half the horses the night before (between 5:30pm and 7:00pm) - and the rest in the morning, when enough prices are available (between 8:30am and 10:00am).

- I will also provide advice on races where I can't tip, due to market strength - or the early market looking accurate (though these won't be official 'tips').

- I will also offer an ante-post tips as part of the service (mainly building a Cheltenham portfolio).

- I will charge £100 (120 Euro) for the 5 months for anyone who commits on day 1.

- If I don't make a profit on the tips over the 5 months at advised prices, I will refund subs.

- If people want to subscribe on a month by month basis, it will cost £30 a month (35 Euro) - but with no profit guarantee.

- I would aim to get 30 subscribers on board initially - and then assess whether there is any impact on the markets.

To expand on this a little:

I would look to issue tips either the night before or on the morning of a race. Tips will only be issued once at least 5 of the ‘proper’ bookmakers on oddschecker have priced up a race (so ignoring the likes of Boylesports, Sporting Bet and Blue Square). Therefore, if a race has been priced up the night before, I will probably tip at that point; otherwise, I will wait until the morning.

I will aim to tip in one of two ‘windows’. I will initially set these as 5:30-7:00 for tips in the evening – and 8:30-10:00 for tips in the morning. These will be reviewed if necessary - and maybe adjusted slightly on Friday evenings/Saturday mornings (when the markets are at their strongest).

Whatever time I tip, I will look to beat the other tipsters out there, who tend to move markets (the likes of Pricewise, Hugh Taylor, Henry Rix, EI etc.).

After the tips have been issued, I will issue an email containing the rationale for tips. After the race, I will issue a further email review the performances.

The focus will be on better class races (class 3 and above) so the main action will be on a Saturday.

All tips will be staked in the range 0-3pts - with the average being 1pt. I would anticipate issuing around 50 tips a month (including antepost tips), so approximately 250 points in total will be staked over the 5 month period.
Based on experience, a draw down of 50 points from any high point, is a distinct possibility. If you are following the service, you should therefore have a minimum bank size of 50 points (ideally, double this). 

On days where there are no suitable races to tip in, I will look to provide ‘advice’. This may take the form of an early bird notification of a potential rick by one of the bookmakers (when only 1 or 2 have priced up a race); or a more general preview of a race the follwoing day, with a suggested tissue

Non of this advice will be classed as official ‘tips’ – and consequently will not be included in the P&L of the service.

I will also look to build up an ante-post portfolio – primarily for the Cheltenham festival. This will be part of the service.

Ante-post tips/rational will be issued on an ad-hoc basis, as opportunities are identified.

The charge for the service, will be £100 for 5 months (equivalent to £20 a month). There will be no refunds if racing doesn’t take place for a period due to bad weather. However, if at the end of the 5 months, the official tips are not showing a profit (to advised stakes at advised odds), then a full refund will be given to anyone who has subscribed for the full period.

In my opinion, if a service can’t make a profit over a 5 month period, it can’t justify a fee.

I really don’t know how many subscribers I will get – though I am aware of about a dozen people who have already expressed an interest.

I will accommodate anyone who subscribed to either of last season’s Specials.

I am happy to also try to accommodate people who didn’t subscribe to either of the Specials - though I will look to assess the impact on the markets (whether prices are holding up) if/when I get 30 subscribers.

Therefore, to be sure of a place, it will make sense to act relatively quickly.

If anyone has any questions, then I would appreciate them being asked via the blog, so they are recorded – along with the answers – for others to view.

Details on payment methods for subscribing can be found in the section on the right, entitled ‘How to subscribe’.

I’m aware that not everyone is interested in betting the selections: some only want to read the rationale.

Consequently, I will still look to post all of the tip rationale on the blog, as I did last year. The only difference will be that this will appear on the blog after the race has taken place (probably at the same time as the race rationale is produced).

Hopefully that covers everything. If not, I’m sure someone will let me know !
Here’s to an enjoyable and profitable 2012/2013 season.
Meanwhile, I’m off to find my horses to follow for the upcoming season ;)

TVB.