I’ve decided to put a ‘race review’ for today’s race on the blog, as that will enable me to tidy up the ‘pre-season’ before embarking on the real thing.
Having a ‘pre-season’ might have seemed a bit of a gimmick – but I honestly can’t overstate how useful it has been, in getting me back into things.
It is over 6 months since I last issued a tip – and whilst I continue to bet during the summer months, there is a world of difference (for me at least !) between finding horses to back (and lay) for myself – and finding tips to be issued.
Almost every day of the pre-season, I have been reminded of a lesson learnt last season and that really has been invaluable.
It should mean that I will be able to hit the ground running tomorrow, as opposed to having to get up to speed, whilst issuing tips.
Today was no exception, as I took another step down the re-learning curve, with Allanard…
As I said last night, Allanard wouldn’t have been at TVB tip at a best price of 9/4 last night. I look for at least a 20% margin in the price of my tips – and by my reckoning, Allanard was a solid 2/1 shot.
Even at 5/2 this morning, I would have teetered over whether to put him – but there is no doubt, the 10/3 SP would have been sufficient to tempt me !
Maybe it’s just as well then, that I didn’t get that chance, as Allanard ran an absolute shocker !
He was never travelling; was clumsy over a few obstacles – and was ultimately pulled up at the end of the back straight on the second circuit.
So he would have been a poor tip then ? – well, I’m not so sure…
As I said last night, according to the form book, he had an outstanding chance- and conditions today were perfect for him.
Better still, there were significant doubts over all of his rivals – in short, he almost looked rock solid.
The only really concern was whether he would have recovered from a tough race less than a week ago – and it would appear he had not.
That wouldn’t have made him a bad tip though. I have to be able to separate the tip from the result (strange as that might sound) and I’m absolutely sure that Allanard would have been a good tip at 10/3.
You have to remember, that I never considered him a certainty. By my estimation, he was a 2/1 shot – so likely to lose the race twice as often as he would have won it.
The fact he did lose today, was irrelevant as far as judging him as a tip is concerned.
Anyway, enough on Allanard – and the theory of tipping !
Suffice to say his run today can be ignored – and Buffalo Bob showed distinct promise when stating on it fourth place…
So that really is it for the pre-season – now the action will being in earnest.
I have removed the subscription option from the right hand side of the blog – the doors to the service have now officially closed !
Anyone who has missed the 2012-13 season, will have to put their name on the waiting list for the 2013-14 season and hope a place becomes available ! Obviously, that is more likely to happen if I have a bad 2012-13 season ! So suffice to say, I’m hoping that I will quickly have a very full inbox of people wanting to subscribe to next year’s service !!
TVB.
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