It’s great to have some decent NH racing back.
The meeting at Chepstow on Saturday, was an absolute cracker –and whilst tomorrow’s card at Wetherby isn’t quite in that class, it’s not too bad, for a Wednesday…
There are 2 races, in particular, where I feel there might be an angle: the 2 mile chase at 2:50 and the 2m4f chase at 3:55…
2:50
I’m a big fan of Tara Royale. He did TVB followers a favour last February, when hacking up at Mussleburgh. He gets to run off a mark just 4lb higher tomorrow, so has a great theoretical chance. However, I have 2 concerns over him: he is quite small to be lugging round 11st12lb – and he has an unfortunate tendency to not complete on his seasonal debut ! At around 5//1, I’m prepared to pass on him.
I’m also prepared to pass on Riguez Dancer due to fitness concerns – and Tiptoeaway for the same reason (even if with slightly less conviction).
Sports Line would have hacked up in this a few years back, but no longer seems to be the same horse; whilst Temple Lord just looks a bit ‘exposed’ (though his proven fitness could give him an edge tomorrow)…
That leaves 3: Quite the Man, L’Eldorado and Cool Touch.
Quite the Man looks the safest option – and most likely winner – but he is priced accordingly at 4/1.
Cool Touch looks interesting and would seem to have potential for improvement – but the bookmakers have been wise to that and put him in at a cautious looking 6/1.
The selection therefore, is L’Eldroado. He won on his seasonal debut last year when taking a novice chase at Hexham.
That wasn’t the first time he had run well after a break and I suspect that this exuberant sort runs best when fresh.
He has actually got a verdict over Quite the Man to his credit – admittedly over hurdles – and is better off at the weights tomorrow.
I don’t honestly think that is particularly relevant – but it is interesting, when you see the disparity in their respective odds.
I n summary, whilst his case isn’t water tight, L’Eldorado makes reasonable appeal at the 14/1 on offer
Selection: L’Eldorado 14/1
3:55
Unlike the previous race, this race is all about one horse: Sherwani Wolf…
I can’t think of too many promising horses that have left the care of Nigel Twiston Davies – but this one has. Furthermore, it’s not been sold, so I’m guessing the owner feels it is capable of achieving more than it has done so far…
Ofcourse, I’m only guessing – but it seems a reasonable asumption, as the horse has certainly threatened to deliver far more than he has done so far…
On his seasonal debut last year, he was the only horse to give Invictus a race. That animal is now rated 149, whilst Sherwani Wolf gets to run off a mark of 120 tomorrow…
The other thing that would make Sherwani Wolf a good bet, is the paucity of opposition he faces tomorrow…
The current market leaders, Gansey and Pigeon Island, are thoroughly exposed chasers; and whilst I’ve always been a fan of Eastlake, he is threatening to become an underachiever.
Outside of these 3, it is difficult to make a concrete case for too many – though the danger at this time of year, is that horses can find significant improvement out of nowhere.
In short though: we know Sherwani Wolf goes well fresh; we know he has plenty of ability – and we can be pretty sure his new trainer, Charlie Longsdon will want to make a good impression on the owners. With credible opponents limited, Sherwani Wolf would be quite a strong selection – and I would fully expect his price to shorten !
Selection: Sherwani Wolf 6/1
I see you still very much have your ability to pick steamers Andy. The 6/1 didn't last long. Lets hope for some of the same as we had last year. Cant wait!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteIt's like riding a bike Ciaran - once you've cracked it, you never forget ;)
ReplyDeleteLet's hope the horse remembers its part of the deal...!!