One of the important things about pre-season friendlies, is that they enable you to assess condition – and I think it is fair to say, that I appear to be in similar condition to that which I spent most of last season in !
The 2 selections for today, were backed like crazy: I wasn’t surprised with Sherwani Wolf, who was strong last night and ultimately went off a well backed 3/1 favourite: L’Eldorado was far more surprising however. He was 14/1 last night – and still that price this morning. However he was the subject of a sustained punt and ended up going off 5/1 third favourite.
Alas, both horses showed (as if a demonstration was needed), that there is a big difference between finding an over-priced horse – and finding a winner.
L’Eldorado ran a fair race, but never looked like winning. The race was dominated by 2 horses: Cool Touch (who I fancied) and Tiptoeaway (who I didn’t).
Ultimately, it was the latter who prevailed – though the former was probably the moral victor, as he ran too free and was very erratic.
Interestingly, Tiptoeaway was 7/2 joint favourite when the early prices were issued – but was returned an 8/1 shot…
Sherwani Wolf was more disappointing. He didn’t jump particularly well and never looked likely to justify the market confidence. His race was won, in quite spectacular style, by Alvarado. He was also the subject of early support yesterday, though this dried up as the off time approached.
So, an interesting first exchange of the season…
Positives can be taken out of it – but improvement needs to be made !
Alas, that improvement is not going to come tomorrow.
There are a couple of NH meetings, at Uttoxeter and Wincanton respectively – but non of the races at either meeting, really grab me.
The novice handicap hurdle which will be run at Wincanton at 4:20, looks like a potentially interesting race – however trying to find the winner of it, is a completely different matter…
I thought Caulfields Venture was over-priced at an opening 25/1 – but the bookmakers soon sorted that out ! Castletown Bridge is also potentially interesting, at a shorter price – but ultimately, I think this is a race to watch rather than bet in.
Earlier on the card, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Award Winner hack up in the handicap hurdle at 3:20.
He is certainly weighted to do so – and with the first time visor and as McCoys only ride for JP McManus, don’t be surprised to see the money come…
He was 4/1 early with B365 – and is now 3/1. However, if tomorrow is the day, I could see his SP being nearer to even money !
Unfortunately, following him would be guesswork on my behalf – and whilst I’ve no issue with that if the odds offer sufficient reward, a price of 3/1 is not really going to make you rich…
Instead, I will wait until Friday, and the first day of Cheltenham’s new season. Once that is upon us, we really know the winter game has begun !!
No comments:
Post a Comment