Haydock - 31st Oct

Tonight’s post is the final one this season, that I will be publishing before racing…

Tomorrow evening, the subscription service will begin and I will be emailing tips/write ups to the subscribers who have committed to the service, for the next 5 months.

I will still be posting my write ups on this blog – along with post race reviews – but this will happen after the days action has taken place.

This means that anyone who is reading the blog simply to understand my rationale for selecting a particular horse in a particular race, will still be able to get their daily ‘fix’. However, anyone who wants bet on the horses I tip, will need to subscribe to the service (and they will need to be quick, as the doors will close tomorrow evening and won’t open again until next autumn – and even then, there will be no guarantees of entrance as I want to keep tight control on the number of subscribers I have).

Before I get onto the selection for tomorrow, just a few quick words on the performance of today’s selection…

Qoubilai ran a fair race at Taunton. He led to the fourth last, but was then passed by the two market leaders, who went on to fight out the finish.

It is quite possible that Qoubilai will come on for the run – his first for 6 months – but it is equally possible that Royale’s Charter and Shooters Wood, were simply better handicapped horses on the day (which was always a chance).

Earlier on the card, Molotof managed to win the novice chase – though I’m not really sure how ! It looked as if Changing Times had his measure, until that one crashed through the fourth last. Even then Sam Twiston Davies managed to re-gather his mount and he still looked the most likely winner on the run to the last. However, AP conjured one final effort out of Molotof and he ultimately prevailed by a length.
It was a most entertaining race – though Molotof will have to improve significantly if he is to take high rank amongst this seasons novices…

So, onto tomorrow, where there is just the one domestic NH card – at Haydock…

In truth, it’s not the most inspiring of cards – though it is good to see one of my old favourites, Buffalo Bob, making his seasonal reappearance in the 3 mile chase.

Twice last season, Buffalo Bob was a maximum bet (EW) for the early bird service –and he didn’t let me down on either occasion.

I would expect him to run a fair race tomorrow – but he isn’t particularly well handicapped and I suspect the will need his first run of the new campaign.

In truth, there is a horse that stands out like a sore thumb in tomorrow’s race – and although I doubt he would ever be a TVB tip, he has to be my selection in the race.

Allanard ran a screamer on his seasonal debut at Doncaster last Friday. He looked all over the winner of that class 2 race, until Benny Be Good cut him down in the shadows of the post.

Because he was running from 6lb out of the handicap that day, Allanard gets to run from a 6lb lower mark tomorrow. He should also strip fitter for that run –and tomorrow’s race is a class lower.

The ground, trip and track should be perfect for him – so all in all, he almost looks a good thing !

The one concern would be the relative proximity of that last run. It was less than a week ago, and there is always the chance that it will have left its mark.

Assuming that isn’t the case – and that his jumping holds up over the stiff Haydock fences - then Allanard really should take all of the beating. His price of 9/4 is short – but it looks justifiable. 

I would opt for Satou as the pick of his rivals – and he has some potential as well. But all things being equal, I would expect a victory for Allanard.

Selection: Allanard 9/4