Subscription service for the 2012-2013 NH season

It feels a long time since the springtime highs and lows of Cheltenham and Aintree…

The meetings were epitomised by one horse: Synchronised. So gallant battling up the Cheltenham hill to take the 2012 Gold Cup; only to lose his life at the Aintree fences, less than a month later. Alas, that is the nature of NH racing. You tend only to get extreme excitement, when extreme risks are involved…

By comparison, the next 7 sporting months have chugged by with very little of note occurring…

Ofcourse there was the Olympics – and prior to that, I vaguely recall the European Championships. Plus, I guess, there was the Tour de France victory for the charismatic Bradley Wiggins; and a first Open tennis championship for the slightly less charismatic Andy Murray (though I don't begrudge him it).

Whilst in the flat racing world, Frankel has completely dominated. How good it would be to see him contesting the 2013 Champion Hurdle ;)

But now autumn has come back round: the days are getting shorter and nights longer – and the 2012-2013 NH season is about to begin in earnest !

As doubtless a fair number of you will recall, I blogged throughout the 2011-2012 NH season.

On most days, for 4 and a half months, from the beginning of November to the middle of March. I produced over 180 posts, giving 148 tips in 140 races and producing a profit of 52 points on 159 staked. 

When it was all over, I said I would use the summer months to decide where I took the TVB adventure – and that is what I’ve done.

At the end of last season, I did a couple of ‘specials’ for the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals.

I made a small charge for both, to help justify the amount of time involved in producing them and despite the mixed results (Cheltenham was a success; Aintree less so !), I think the concept worked well.

Consequently, I would like to try and build on this for the forthcoming season and offer a relatively low cost subscription service.

Everyone who was around last season, should now have a fair idea of what I will produce (tips, rationale & reviews) – and anyone who wasn’t but who is interested, can always check out the TVB.earlybird blog.

In summary, the service this season will consist of the following:

- It will run from the start of November, to the end of March - so 5 months.

- I will offer tips mainly on the better class races (I would expect almost half of the tips to be issued on Saturdays) - but also on other days, if the races are there and the markets sufficiently strong.

- I will tip roughly half the horses the night before (between 5:30pm and 7:00pm) - and the rest in the morning, when enough prices are available (between 8:30am and 10:00am).

- I will also provide advice on races where I can't tip, due to market strength - or the early market looking accurate (though these won't be official 'tips').

- I will also offer an ante-post tips as part of the service (mainly building a Cheltenham portfolio).

- I will charge £100 (120 Euro) for the 5 months for anyone who commits on day 1.

- If I don't make a profit on the tips over the 5 months at advised prices, I will refund subs.

- If people want to subscribe on a month by month basis, it will cost £30 a month (35 Euro) - but with no profit guarantee.

- I would aim to get 30 subscribers on board initially - and then assess whether there is any impact on the markets.

To expand on this a little:

I would look to issue tips either the night before or on the morning of a race. Tips will only be issued once at least 5 of the ‘proper’ bookmakers on oddschecker have priced up a race (so ignoring the likes of Boylesports, Sporting Bet and Blue Square). Therefore, if a race has been priced up the night before, I will probably tip at that point; otherwise, I will wait until the morning.

I will aim to tip in one of two ‘windows’. I will initially set these as 5:30-7:00 for tips in the evening – and 8:30-10:00 for tips in the morning. These will be reviewed if necessary - and maybe adjusted slightly on Friday evenings/Saturday mornings (when the markets are at their strongest).

Whatever time I tip, I will look to beat the other tipsters out there, who tend to move markets (the likes of Pricewise, Hugh Taylor, Henry Rix, EI etc.).

After the tips have been issued, I will issue an email containing the rationale for tips. After the race, I will issue a further email review the performances.

The focus will be on better class races (class 3 and above) so the main action will be on a Saturday.

All tips will be staked in the range 0-3pts - with the average being 1pt. I would anticipate issuing around 50 tips a month (including antepost tips), so approximately 250 points in total will be staked over the 5 month period.
Based on experience, a draw down of 50 points from any high point, is a distinct possibility. If you are following the service, you should therefore have a minimum bank size of 50 points (ideally, double this). 

On days where there are no suitable races to tip in, I will look to provide ‘advice’. This may take the form of an early bird notification of a potential rick by one of the bookmakers (when only 1 or 2 have priced up a race); or a more general preview of a race the follwoing day, with a suggested tissue

Non of this advice will be classed as official ‘tips’ – and consequently will not be included in the P&L of the service.

I will also look to build up an ante-post portfolio – primarily for the Cheltenham festival. This will be part of the service.

Ante-post tips/rational will be issued on an ad-hoc basis, as opportunities are identified.

The charge for the service, will be £100 for 5 months (equivalent to £20 a month). There will be no refunds if racing doesn’t take place for a period due to bad weather. However, if at the end of the 5 months, the official tips are not showing a profit (to advised stakes at advised odds), then a full refund will be given to anyone who has subscribed for the full period.

In my opinion, if a service can’t make a profit over a 5 month period, it can’t justify a fee.

I really don’t know how many subscribers I will get – though I am aware of about a dozen people who have already expressed an interest.

I will accommodate anyone who subscribed to either of last season’s Specials.

I am happy to also try to accommodate people who didn’t subscribe to either of the Specials - though I will look to assess the impact on the markets (whether prices are holding up) if/when I get 30 subscribers.

Therefore, to be sure of a place, it will make sense to act relatively quickly.

If anyone has any questions, then I would appreciate them being asked via the blog, so they are recorded – along with the answers – for others to view.

Details on payment methods for subscribing can be found in the section on the right, entitled ‘How to subscribe’.

I’m aware that not everyone is interested in betting the selections: some only want to read the rationale.

Consequently, I will still look to post all of the tip rationale on the blog, as I did last year. The only difference will be that this will appear on the blog after the race has taken place (probably at the same time as the race rationale is produced).

Hopefully that covers everything. If not, I’m sure someone will let me know !
Here’s to an enjoyable and profitable 2012/2013 season.
Meanwhile, I’m off to find my horses to follow for the upcoming season ;)

TVB.