Review of the day

Just when I thought we were going to get through a month, with luck only having smiled on us – it chooses the very last day of the month, to remind us of the darker side of it’s personality…

Not that Milarrow was particularly unlucky – but he did look the most likely winner of the race, approaching the third last – and consequently traded odds on in running, before being passed by Politeo…

I guess you could say we were about due one – and maybe we were. However, with a potential profit of over 8pts on the line, he was quite a big one to miss out on.

Still, worse things happen I guess (even in the world of TVB !) – and at least Milarrow went close, which is more than can be said for either Jaunty Journey or Red Mile.

Their poor runs were both a little surprising, as our old friend, the market, was quite keen on their chances.

Jaunty Journey was backed in from 14/1 early, to 13/2 at the off.

However, he was never travelling or jumping and was pulled up before the third last.

It was a similar story with Red Mile.

8/1 early, he was sent off a strong 9/2 second favourite, but seemed to sulk in the blinkers; was soon behind – and eventually pulled up.

So a disappointing end to the month – but these things happen…

Tomorrow sees the start of February, the penultimate month of the TVB season.

Jump racing only survives at Catterick and a cursory inspection of the card suggests there will be no tips.

However, I will look a little more closely this evening and confirm either way in the morning.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 31st

The final day of January - where did the month go ?!

As always, I’ will be producing a monthly report – though I’m not quite sure when !

Tomorrow looks like it might be a quiet day, so there will be possibilities then – otherwise, it is likely to be Sunday evening…

Anyway, on to today’s action !

Wincanton managed to survive a morning inspection and so they race there this afternoon - along with Towcester…

There has been lots of rain at both venues, so the going will the very heavy.

That is particularly significant at Towcester, which is a tough course at the best of times.

Expect to see slow motion finishes and very few runners completing the course…

I’ve found 3 tips for the day, so we are in for a busy time.

Unfortunately, I will be out of the house all day myself so I won’t be able to see any of the action live.

However, I will make sure that I catch up on things as soon as I’m back home – and I can normally count on the likes of Roy and Ciaran to keep me updated on how things are goings (particularly if they are going well !).

I’m a little short of time before I go out, so the rationale for today’s tips is a bit shorter than usual.

Hopefully, I will cover all the pertinent points however !

Wincanton 2:40

This is a very decent race – but I’m hopeful that Milarrow might have snuck into it on a workable mark…

He is a relatively inexperienced novice, with only 3 runs over fences. However he has shown promise in all 3 of those runs and if he can jump a little slicker today, I think he is handicapped to just about win this.

He has been unfortunate to come against some very useful horses in his recent outings. However, he has acquitted himself well in all of those races – and still looks on a mark form which he can do some damage.

Certainly, on a line through Sustainability, whom he beat by 1 ¼ lengths, when conceding 3lb, he looks well handicapped.

That one ran creditably off a mark of 122 yesterday, suggesting that Milarrow could be rated close to 130.

That suggestion wouldn’t look ridiculous in the context of his runs behind Parsnip Pete or Rajdhani Express.

Trip and going should also be fine for him – and his light weight will be a bonus in the heavy ground.

He is Joe Tizzard’s only ride of the day – let’s hope he makes it count !

0.75pt win Milarrow 11/1

 

Wincanton 3:10

There can be little doubt that Michel Le Bon is the one to beat in this race.

However the concession of 26lb to Jaunty Journey, in very heavy ground, might just tip the scales in favour of the latter.

This could certainly end up being a bit of a war – with a number of front-runners and very heavy ground.

An ability to get the trip will be essential whilst a light weight will be advantageous.

Jaunty Journey should have no issue with the trip – and just sneaks into the handicap on the minimum weight.

He ran disappointingly last time out at Catterick – but the time before he ran extremely well in a slog at Haydock.

If he can recapture the Haydock form, he should go close today.

I was half tempted to put him up EW – partially because of the presence of Michel Le Bon – and partially because he does have a very goods record of placing – but I resisted !

Let’s hope I got that cal right and he comes home in front  !!

0.5pt win Jaunty Journey 14/1

Towcester 3:50

I must admit that Red Mile is a bit of a speculative selection in this race – but I will kick myself if he wins and we aren’t on him, and I don’t want to be doing that !

Purely on the formbook, his chance is limited – however I am very optimistic that the application of a visor will elicit improvement form a horse that has always threatened to be far better than his current mark of 99.

Last time out at Newbury, he ran disappointingly and was well beaten, However, he was a 5/1 shot that day, for a better race than he runs in today, so somebody clearly thinks he is up to winning a contest such as todays.

He was being niggled throughout that race – which presumably is why a visor has been applied today.

It actually says much for his ability, that he was still there with half a chance down the home straight, but he could only keep on at one pace and ultimately finished well beaten.

There is of a course a danger that the visor will light him up today – and he won’t get home. As I said in the introduction, Towcester is an unforgiving course at the best of times – and in heavy going it will be brutal.

However, the fact remains that Red Mile could be significantly better than his current mark – and he does get 3 miles OK – so if the visor helps focus his mind, he could take a lot of beating.

0.5pt win Red Mile 8/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead – and a positive end to the month ;)

TVB.

Review of the day

No joy today – though Go an Arch ran a decent race – despite being pulled up !

He was part of a group of 5, that broke away down the back straight – and he was still in with a chance, rounding the home turn.

However, his stamina started to give away as that point and he was pulled up after jumping the third last.

With a couple more pounds of his back, he would be of considerable interest over half a mile less…

The finish of the race was ultimately fought out by Rydalis and Milo Milan – and at the end of 3 miles, the judge couldn’t split the pair…

If Rydalis had been available at 9/1 this morning, we might easily have been on her (particularly if Go on arch had been 8/1) – but she was a best priced 5/1.

One the market didn’t quite get right…

That hadn’t been the casein the previous race on the card, where Midnight Bell was punted in from an early 20/1 to 17/2 at the off…

I looked quite closely at her last night – mainly due to her connections.

She is trained by Tom Symonds and was ridden by Ben Poste – the same combination that have scored for us this season with Tweedledrum and Valmari.

However, there really was very little in the form book to recommend her – and it would have taken something of an act of faith (or desperation !) to put her up.

I don’t feel I’m quite at that point, so I can’t feel too bad about not tipping her !

Tom De Lys ran a fair race in the novice chase – but went off too quickly on the rain-softened ground and was a spent force by the home straight.
That left the race at the mercy of the stayers – and Filbert got the better of Sustainability in a drawn out finish.

Over at Leicester, the stamina reserves of Safran De Cotte served him very well, as he managed to fight off the sustained challenge of Abnaki.

The fact that the race turned into a bit of a war, suited Safran and I remain convinced that better still will be seen of him, when he tackles marathon distances…

Finally, a few of you may have been a little concerned by the price crash that took place on Go on Arch, after I had tipped him this morning…

I would like to reassure you, that very little of the market movement was down to me tipping him.

He was also put up by one of the big tipping services - about 10 minutes after me – and that is what caused the crash.

It just goes to illustrate why I am so keen to issue my tips as early as is practical, in the morning…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 30th

It’s good to see some mid-week turf NH racing again…

Leicester passed it’s morning inspection, so there will be 2 meetings today – the other one at Ludlow…

When I saw an all chase card at Leicester (the hurdle races were abandoned last week) I fully expect my attention would be there. However, on closer examination, it was the Ludlow card that I found the more attractive…

I’ve ended up with only one tip – but I did consider a couple of others.

I’ll go through the rationale for the tip first – and then briefly mention the other possibilities…

3:10

This is a really trappy race - and one that I spent a lot of time last night, turning round and round, in the search for the winner…

Unfortunately, the winner refused to drop out ! – but what I did eventually find, was a decent bet in Go on Arch – and who knows, he might be up to winning…

Go on Arch has only had 8 career outings: 3 over fences; 3 over hurdles and 2 in bumpers…

Looking at his form, it appears that he was initially quite well thought of as he made his debut in the bumper run at the Cheltenham November meeting (the race was actually won by subsequent champion hurdler, Rock on Ruby).

He made little show in that race – and in truth, made little show in all of his subsequent runs, until his most recent outing at Lingfield…

Funnily enough, our old friend, the market, expected him to put up an improved showing in that particular race – and so it proved…

Backed down to 4/1 second favourite, Go on Arch raced prominently before losing his place when the field quickened down the home straight.

However, he stayed on well from the last fence and was closing in third place, when the line came.

He is significantly stepped up in trip to 3 miles today, and provided his stamina holds out, he has the potential to be very interesting of a mark of just 97.

Aside from him, I could make a case for any one of half a dozen !

The 2 market leaders, Rydalis and Father Probus were both decent winners last time out –and have the scope to improve further…

Quinte De Chatelet has also got scope for improvement – though he does have quite a bit to find on the book, based on recent runs…

Emperor Concerto could be given a chance on his best form – whilst Kellystown Lad is also potentially interesting, for Tom George…

On balance though, I think it is worth taking a risk with Go on Arch.

He doesn’t currently have the form to win – but he does have potential – and is also a very nice price ;)

0.5pt win Go on Arch 12/1

I was half expecting to have a tip for the previous race – the mares handicap hurdle…

The horse I was expecting to tip, was On the Off Chance, who went into my notebook, when taking a fall on her last outing.

The trouble is, she is a 3 raced maiden, owned by J P McManus and trained by Jonjo – I feel whatever we do with her, we are likely to be a step behind connections !!
Looking at the race in more detail, I was actually drawn to Annaluna…

She has form tied in with our old friends Queens Grove and Lady Kathleen – and also ran well on her latest outing.

She strikes me as the solid option in the race – but then I would be fearful of On the Off Chance !

Worse still, there are at least a couple more in the race that I could also be fearful of – so at a  best price of 6/1 the two I was interested in, there seemed little margin and so I decide to swerve the race…

The novice chase at 2:10 is also a very interesting looking race…

The 2 market leaders, Heez a Cracker and Sustainability, both look like they would prefer 2m4f  - so Ludlow’s sharp 2m seems a slightly odd call.

That should provide an opportunity for the third favourite – Furrows – but all the furore that surrounded his last run, would make me nervous about backing him.

Tom Du Lys has a theoretical chance – but if he is to win, the market will doubtless tell…

On balance, despite trip reservations, I suspect Sustainability is the most likely winner – but he clearly couldn’t be a tip (or even a bet !).

Over at Leicester, the most interesting runner is probably Safran De Cotte.

We were on him last time when he finished fourth in a fair handicap at Doncaster.

It looked to me as if he needed a longer trip that day – but he gets to run over a slightly shorter one today !
That said, Leicester has a tough finish – and he is back in novice company.

I make him the most likely winner of the race – but don’t find a best price of 5/2 too difficult to swerve !


Here’s hoping for a decent day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

With the benefit of hindsight, I think I was maybe a little too cavalier with the staking for the 2 main bets today…

In a way, it was perfectly understandable: buoyed by the success of Thursday (when my only irritation was that I didn’t stake a horse I really fancied, a little more aggressively), I decided to go for it today, on another couple of horses that I thought were capable of significantly outrunning their odds.

With hindsight, I should have reigned back a little – and had a saver on the 2 horses that I saw as dangers in the respective races…

The shrewd ones amongst you will have noticed that the only other horse I mentioned in Hells Bay’s race was Katenko; whilst in Cootamundra’s race, it was Texas Jack.

The link between the 2 – they both won L

Still, I can’t get every call right I guess !

With regards to the runs from the 2 horses I did tip – then both ran reasonable races…

Hells Bay travelled well to the third last – but then weakened very quickly…

Whether it was the ground or a physical problem, I don’t know.

He is obviously one to be a little wary of – though I reckon most of his ability remains…

Cootamundra also travelled very nicely through his race – but was probably held up a little too far back, over what is probably his minimum trip and in a race where there was no great pace.

He closed on the run to the second last, but couldn’t raise a further effort to really get competitive.

He will be of serious interest in handicap company off his current mark, on testing ground…

No joy either with the day’s other 2 tips…

Quartz De Thaix put in a shocking round of jumping before finally falling.

That was a real surprise has his jumping previously this season, has been quite assured.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him put back over hurdles for his next run, in an attempt to restore his confidence.

Some what ironically, the race was won by the horse whose jumping I didn’t think would be up to the job: Cape Tribulation.

He is a very talented horse – though I doubt he is quite Gold Cup class.

That said, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise ever if he managed to get placed in the big one – though he would need soft ground and to jump like he did today.

There were no obvious excuses for the performance of Hidden Cyclone over at Leopardstown – he simply didn’t look good enough..

That being the case, he could prove to be a very difficult horse to place from now on…

Whilst both Discoteca and Edeymi were non-runners, in the Boylesport.com handicap hurdle.

Earlier on the Cheltenham card, the 2 favourites fought out the finish to the opener, with Roc D’Apsis, finishing miles back in third…

I suspect the form is decent –though whether either of the first 2 will have appreciated such a hard race so early in their careers, is a mute point…

Next up, I could hardly believe my eyes as Vino Griego routed a very decent field of novices…

As you all know, I’ve been a big fan of the horse over the years – but his defeat at Marken Rasen when I tipped him earlier in the season, put me off him. He could have won that race that day – but he didn’t want to…

He wanted to today however and absolutely sprinted clear up the run in.

There has never been any doubting his talent – and he probably has the ability to defy whatever weight rise the handicapper gives him. Whether he will do however, is a different matter…

As expected, Sprinter Sacre proved completely different class to his rival in the Victor Chandler chase.

He really is a freak.

I’ve been watching jumping racing closely for 30 years – and he is the best 2 mile chaser I have seen, by some margin.

In terms of natural ability, I would go so far as to say, he is the best chaser I’ve seen, full stop.

An awesome talent….

The novice hurdle proved as interesting and informative as I had hoped…

At Fishers Cross got the better of The New One, in a titanic battle from the last hurdle.

Again however, you would have to be a little concerned that such a hard race might leave it’s mark.

Reve De Sivola also had quite a hard race in wining the Cleeve hurdle – but I suspect he is made of quite stern stuff…

He is now likely to start favourite for the World Hurdle and whatever beats him will know it has been in a race.

I suspect he might be vulnerable on quick ground – but if conditions are on the soft side, he will take a lot of beating.

Finally, AP and Mr Watson were decisive winners of the finale.
The horse seemed to be running a little free in the early stages on the race, so it says much for his ability that he could respond when challenged at the last.

Something like the Coral Cup might be right up his street…

TVB.

Daily write-up - 26th Jan

An incredible days racing – and not just because of Cheltenham, the supporting fixture at Leopardstown offers some brilliant racing and great betting opportunities as well.

As you all know, when there is racing at Cheltenham, I like to work my way through the card and offer thoughts on all of the races.

However, with an 8 race card – and me tipping in 3 of the Leopardstown races, time is not going to permit me to quite produce the detailed preview I would like.

Still, I’ll do the best I can – and hopefully cover all of the important aspects…

One important point to consider if you are betting at Cheltenham, is that it is ‘trials’ day – the clues are in the name !

Some horses will be running to clarify which race they should be running in at the festival. Add to this, the fact that some horses will be running because the timing is good with regard to a prep race for the festival - and you will realise that not everything today can be taken at face value…

Furthermore, the likely very heavy ground is another factor than needs to be carefully considered.

No horse with serious festival ambitions, is going to be bottomed to win today…

So, you need to find horses, who are running over the right trip; will be happy to win today (even if it means possibly sacrificing their chances in 6 weeks time); and who can handle the heavy ground…

That should help thin things down a bit !!

Anyway, without further ado, the rationale for today’s tips – starting at Cheltenham…

1:15

I have a sneaking suspicion that Hells Bay is going to run a very big race today…

He is a horse of significant ability – but also a horse with a history of physical problems.

At his prime, he was running off a mark of 156. Today he runs off a mark of 135.

He acquired his rating of 156 through a level weight victory over Medermitt (now rated 167) over this course and distance, 2 years ago. The sky looked the limit after that win, but things have fallen apart for him since that day.

Originally under the care of Paul Nicholls, Hells Bay produced his best performances for Colin Tizzard – but is now with Keiran Burke.

He was still with Tizzard when he ran in this very race last season. He was blown away by the subsequent Gold cup runner up The Giant Bolster that day – but as he was trying to give him 7lb, that wasn’t too surprising.

Which ever way you look at Hells Bay, he is potentially well handicapped – if only he can rediscover his form…

Evidence that he is capable of doing that, is limited – but not non-existent.

He has only run twice so far this season; first time up, he was brushed aside by Ghizao at Kempton. But on the back of a long absence, there was little disgrace in that.

His only subsequent outing was in the big 2m5f handicap at the Cheltenham December meeting.
Hells Bay fell at the fifth last that day, but he was still in contention and moving very nicely at the point of his departure.

It happened too far out to be categoric over where he might have finished – but I think it showed he is in good enough form to be given a chance today.

The one thing Hells Bay has always done, is travel. So if you are that way inclined, backing him and laying off in-running should certainly be an option.

For the purposes of tipping him though, I think each way is the right call…

In terms of his opponents, then Katenko was massively impressive last time out at Sandown. But a completely different track; shorter distance and bigger weight, mean that today will be a very different test.

I rate his chance – but 5/1 is tight enough.

I can draw a line through quite a few of the others for the reasons I mentioned in the introduction. That being the case, I am quietly optimistic that Hells Bay will at least be able to sneak into the frame today and reward us at a monster price !

0.5pt EW Hells Bay 50/1

2:25

Now let’s get this straight…

If Imperial Commander is even half the horse he was, in receipt of weight from the entire field, over a course and distance that is perfect for him, he will hack up today…

However, after 2 years off the course, on heavy ground, if he wins, it is likely to completely bottom him – and I’ll be surprised if he even runs in the Gold Cup, never mind gets competitive…

My guess is that he will be given a gentle ride – and get pulled up with half a mile to run.

All this said, if he gets backed into 2/1 favourite, take the hint and pile in !!

Assuming this won’t happen, we have rules one of the main contenders out of the race – and it is relatively easy to take out another, in Grands Crus…

As most of you know, I’m a big fan of the horse – but even I have to accept that he probably doesn’t stay 3 miles – never mind a bit more than 3 miles in desperate conditions.

Again, I can see him running well to a point – but I’ll be surprised if he gets home…

Looking for horses that will stay the trip; act in the ground and are ready to run for their lives, I think you end up with quite a short list…

Weird Al, Cape Tribulation, Quartz De Thaix, Hey Big Spender – and possibly Wayward Prince.

Weird Al puts in too many poor performances for my liking; whilst Hey Big Spender is just too out of form at the moment.

I think the ground may be the undoing of Wayward Prince – whilst the jumping of Cape Tribulation tends to be his achilles heal.

Therefore, the winner of the race will be Quartz De Thaix – QED !

He has a little to find on the weight s with a few of these (but not much); however he will handle both trip and ground – and is in the form of his life.

He may have looked an unlikely future winner of an Argento, when I tipped him on his seasonal reappearance at Bangor back in November, but looking at things objectively today, I’m optimistic that might just be the case !

0.5pt win Quartz De Thaix 10/1

Elsewhere on the Cheltenham Card:

I would be happy to take on the top 2 in the market in the opener, with Last Shadow and Roc Dapsis. There is a fair amount of guesswork involved, but I would expect both of the latter 2 to step up significantly on promising debut runs and give the market leaders something to think about.

In the second race on the card, I had ear marked Johns Spirit as a tip – and was quite happy with the 6/1 opening quote last night. However, 9/2 this morning is tight in a very trappy contest.

I still see him as the most likely winner – but there is little margin in his price…

The Victor Chandler is all about Sprinter Sacre.

I’ll be surprised if anything can get within 10 lengths of him – and expect Somersby or Williams Wishes to chase him home…

The novice hurdle at 3:00 is truly fascinating…

Coneygree will doubtless try to burn off The New One – but will he be successful ?

I’ve no idea – but I would be very concerned that if this race turns into a war it could harm the festival prospects of both animals.

Still, I guess we shouldn’t worry about that today – it is a race to savour in it’s own right…

The Cleeve hurdle looks between Oscar Whisky and Reve De Sivola.

If Oscar stays, he wins – if he doesn’t Reve should win…

Again, very much a race to watch –and don’t be surprised to see Knockara Beau run a big race at a huge price, He could be worth a small EW interest…

I don’t have a strong view on the finale.
However, Lord of House was mightily impressive in victory last time – and even with a 15lb weight hike, looks quite interesting at 15/2…

Over to Leopardstown, where there are 4 tips in 3 races…

2:15

The big hope of the day !

Those of you who pay attention, shouldn’t really be too surprised by this tip.

I tipped Cootamundra in the grade 1 novice chase at the Leopardstown Christmas festival.
He ran a massive race that day to finished fifth and I did say after the race that if he was stepped back in trip by half a mile, it would take a serious horse to beat him…

Well, he’s been stepped back in trip by half a mile – and dropped to Grade 2 level.

Now that doesn’t mean there won’t be a serious horse in the race capable of beating him – but it does make it a little more unlikely.

Not that I want to be overly dismissive of the chance of his opponents (with the possible exception of One Cool Shabra) as they are all very decent horses.

In fact, Texas Jack comfortably holds Cootamundra on their Christmas running – and so has to rate a very big danger.

I also respect the chance of the other 3 fancied horses – but I simply cannot have it that Cootamundra is a 20/1 shot today…

By my reckoning, he should be priced up in single figures – and even then, I would think he had been under-estimated !

He’s the kind of horse I love – because other people will dismiss him.

He is the oldest runner in the field – was exposed as of limited ability over hurdles – and comes from an unfashionable yard. Every time he runs, he is likely to represent value…

I won’t go into the subtleties of the form of his rivals – like I say, they are all decent animals and worthy of their ratings in the low 140s.

But so too is Cootamundra.

Better still, he will relish today’s heavy ground – and the 2m5f trip will be perfect for him.

Touch wood, he also jumps like a cat (which is very important in novice chases).

I am fearful of Texas Jack – and considered a saver on him (and win only on Cootamundra).

However, the odds for Cootamundra to finish second were better than the odds on Texas Jack to win – so that swung me !
Hopefully, he won’t let me down today. I know in my heart, that he is a good bet – but ofcourse, that counts for nothing.
He needs to convert that into a big performance – fingers crossed he can do just that…

0.75pt EW Cootamundra 20/1

2:45

I’ve said many times before, that when you put a graded horse in a handicap, there tends only to be one result: Victory.

I believe that Hidden Cyclone is a graded horse – and this race is certainly a handicap – so I’m optimistic of a positive outcome !!

The concern is that he’s got to carry 11st10lb in heavy ground –and has 17 rivals to beat !

However, I wouldn’t be too worried about most of the rivals – and I’m pleased to see him running over a trip of 2m5f as opposed to the 3 miles over which he was tried last time out.

That was in the grade 1 Lexus chase on Boxing day. Hidden Cyclone ran Ok to a point that day – but his jumping was not as slick as normal and he ultimately didn’t get home

There should be less pressure applied to him jumping today in this lower class – and his stamina over the trip won’t be an issue either.

It shouldn’t be forgotten that he finished within a length and a half of current Gold Cup second favourite, Sir Des Champs, in the novice chase on this card , last year.

Of his rival’s Glam Gerry stands out to me. In receipt of 24lb he could be a massive danger. However, he is far more exposed than Hidden Cyclone – so scope for improvement should be limited.

Lets just hope that the class of the Cyclone sees him through ;)

0.5pt win Hidden Cyclone 7/1

3:20

The Boylesport.com hurdle – The Irish Sweeps hurdle from my youth – has always been a tremendous spectacle – but almost unfathomable !

I remember trying many times over the years – but I don’t recall getting too many winners !

Nowadays, it is not quite the race is used to be  - but it still looks a bit of a puzzle !

I’ve decided to take 2 Gigginstown runners against the field – win only – both at big prices…

Discoteca is a horse I tipped over the Christmas period when he ran really well to finish fourth.

He was given too much to do that day –and his jumping wasn’t particularly slick. Otherwise, I think he would have gone very close in that race.

He has been raised 2lb for that run – but I can’t honestly see that being a big issue…

The other one I’m siding with is Edeymi.

He ran second in he Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, last spring.

He had disappointed in all of his subsequent runs, until he won – unfancied – at Dundalk, last Friday evening…

He now gets to run off a mark 3lb lower than the one he ran from at Cheltenham, so he is clearly well handicapped. If he is also back in some form, then he must have a sporting chance today.

One thing that strikes me as slightly odd about both horses, is that they are being ridden by very inexperienced apprentices.

Mr D O’Leary, who rides Discoteca has only managed 1 win in his career – from a little mote than 20 rides: whilst Shane Shortall, the rider of Edeymi, has only had 7 rides under rules and is yet to ride a winner !

I can’t imagine that such inexperience is a positive in a race such as this – however the 7lb that both riders claim, will doubtless help significantly..

At the end of the day, you can read it either way – and I don’t know sufficient about either of the jockeys to judge.

However, I do know that this is a very valuable handicap and that Gigginstown generally play things straight, so I’m prepared to take the risk – to small stakes of course ;)

0.25pt win Discoteca 33/1

0.25pt win Edeymi 25/1

We’ve got some very big priced runners going for us today – so it’s an afternoon likely to end in drought or glory !

If we get that little bit of luck which you always need, then I’ll happily take my chance on the outcome ;)

TVB.

Race review

It’s funny to think, that little over a month ago, I was bemoaning the fact that 9 out 12 of my most recent tips that had traded odds on in-running, had lost…

We are now in the situation where the last 6 tips that have traded odds on in running have all won !

You can either view that as luck evening itself out – or as an illustration of just how bizarre the situation in December was…

The point is, the tips I’ve issued this month, have been no better than the tips I issued in December – in fact, I think you can argue that they have been worse (or at least, less consistent).

However, that little bit of luck has been with us this month – when it was missing last month – and from a P&L perspective, the difference that makes, is massive…

Nobody can tell me that Jadanli today, was a better trip than Monastrell on day 2 – or indeed Another Flutter or Rubert.

However, fortune favoured Jadanli, in a way that it had not done for the other 3…

They really are fine lines – and that is what makes a raw P&L potentially so mis-leading.

Those of you who know me, would be aware that I would feel just as uncomfortable with a P&L that grossly flattered what I was producing – and that is why I will always want to look at my figures with as much ‘luck’ stripped out as possible…

With regard to the race today, then Jadanli ran precisely as I had hoped he would.

I don’t honestly think that he ran significantly better than he had done last year – he was just fortunate that most of his main rivals didn’t perform.

I fully expected that to be the case for a few of them – and that is why I though he was a cracking bet, to be placed. However I didn’t expect them all to under-perform, but that is what happened and pleasingly, Jadanli was able to take advantage…

I would honestly doubt whether he will be able to build on this victory.
He is an 11 year old, whose best days are behind him. I don’t suppose he will get a massive hike in the weights for this win – but it will probably be sufficient to stop him following up – unless circumstances fall in his favour again…

Not that it matters a jot ! Today was the day that really counted – not just for us, but for his connections as well.

The old warrior richly deserved a final day in the sun – and it was very pleasing that we were able to share it with him.

Now by my calculation, just a couple more winners from horses trading odds on, and the books will be balanced – I trust non of you are planning to go anywhere ;)

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 24th

Just the one NH meeting survives the elements today – at Gowran Park in County Kilkenny.

Furthermore, there is only one race of any real interest – the Thystes Chase.

However, it is a cracking contest – and it wasn’t too difficult for me to find a tip in it…

3:25

Towards the end of November, the Troytown chase was run at Navan…

It is a similar race to the Thystes: a very valuable 3 mile handicap chase.

I tipped 2 horses in the Troytown: Zardsky and Jadanli.

My original plan that day, was to only put up Jadanli each-way, but I had a last minute change of heart.

Today, I’ve stuck to my guns !!

Jadanli ran a cracking race in the Troytown, staying on to finish fourth.

In truth, he never looked likely to win that day – but he would have collected place money, if that had been the call.

I’ll be quite happy with that result today – and in truth, it is probably the most likely outcome.

I think Jadanli has got a chance of winning – assuming the ground is truly bottomless. But in all probability, one or two of the younger, less exposed sorts will prove his master.

Jadanli actually finished an honourable third in this very contest 12 months ago –when he started at odds of 50/1.

That was the first notable form he had shown in some while – but he has been quite consistent since that point.

Despite that, he gets to run off a 2lb lower mark today – so all things being equal, it is difficult to see why he won’t run a very big race.

Jadanli has run twice since the Troytown and whilst both runs might appear a little disappointing, I don’t really think that was the case.

On each occasion, he was tackling a marathon trip – and I don’t think he stays much more than 3 miles.

Certainly, last time out in the Welsh National, he was moving well enough rounding the home turn, but just ran out of steam up the home straight.

Back over a trip that we know he gets; on a course we know he likes and on ground he relishes, I fully expect him to bounce back to the form he showed in the Troytown.

Of course, that still might not be good enough to win the race – and it is interesting to see that connection have re-applied cheek pieces today, presumably in an attempt to eek out a little more improvement. He has also been dropped 4lb in the handicap since that run – which will help. 

If Jadanli proves not quite good enough, there are around half a dozen others, who I think may be capable to taking advantage…

The Willie Mullins trained Bishopsfurze, is the most obvious one to start with. He has a serious engine – but some jumping issues. If Ruby can sort him out, he could be well handicapped, despite carrying top weight.

Son Amix is a similar character. Very talented – but with limited experience over the bigger obstacles. If everything clicks with him, he could make 14/1 look a generous price.

Tullintain finished second in this race last season – a place ahead of Jadanli. There is a 4lb turn around in the weights today – but that should make it very close between the pair of them. His chances must therefore be respected – but at 12/1, he doesn’t have the EW attraction of the selection.

The Westerner Boy and Panther Claw are both young novices with plenty of scope for improvement.

However, I would be more fearful of the enigmatic Outlaw Pete…

He has proved a revelation running over the cross country courses - and on his form in that discipline, he is thrown in today.

He is also potentially well handicapped on the form he showed in the Cork National, in November. He looked likely to win that race, until running out on the approach to the last.

He has been raised 8lb for that run – but a bigger concern is the apparent show of temperament.

If he keeps everything together today, he will take the beating – but he clearly is a little quirky.

I could also see Belle Brook running a big race – and she is fairly priced at around 18/1.

However, on balance, I am happy to go with Jadanli – each way. Safe in the knowledge that there are no reasons why he won’t run a very big race – and if that is the case, I’ll be a little surprised if 4 of his rivals are able to finish in front of him…

0.5pt EW Jadanli 28/1

Here’s to a good afternoon ahead…

TVB.

Review of the day

The predictive powers of pre-race market movements, is an area I’ve touched on a few times lately…

Whilst watching the racing during the afternoon, I invariably keep an eye on Betfair and monitor price fluctuation for the horses I am interested in.

They have always been quite revealing, but over the past few months, they seem to have become unerringly accurate –and scarily extreme !!

I’ll come on to today’s extreme example later – but even todays tip, Etxalar, had it’s fortune told quite accurately by the pre-race market…

When I tipped the horse this morning, it was available at 13 on Betfair (so 12/1).

By lunchtime, it had been backed in to a low of 6.6 (so 11/2).

Admittedly, there was a NR (accounting for around 10%) – but even so, this was quite a strong market move.

To be honest, I wasn’t overly surprised. As I said this morning, a case for it did leap out, so I could understand it being backed…

However, in the 15 minutes prior to the off, the horse started to drift.

And by the time of the off, it could be backed at 14 on Betfair – this is rarely a good sign !

Now, I ‘m not suggesting that anything untoward took place: in the race itself, Etxalar ran as well as I believe he was capable. It’s just that the market seemed to be pretty sure before hand, that this wasn’t going to be good enough.

Unfortunately, his best wasn’t even good enough to get him placed – which was a disappointment.

He eventually plugged on for fifth place – but never looked like threatening Chartreux, who was a quite convincing winner (even if Upham Atom did give him a late scare).

So, back to the extreme market movement…

As I’m sure you will recall, I was half tempted by the chances of Cnoc Seuda this morning – to be placed, at least.

I decided against putting her up because she was only available at 8/1 – and as I thought her an unlikely winner, the place part of the bet would only just have covered the win part – assuming she had finished second (which is what I expected her to do).

First thing, she was available to back at 12 on Betfair. That is a bit longer than the 8/1 with bookmakers – but as Betfair offer win only, that is not too surprising.

What was suspiring however, was that she had drifted out to 22 – with a large amount of money available to back her - half an hour before the off.

That got me suspicious – but it was nothing compared to the drift that followed in the crucial 10 minutes before the off…

At one point she touched 65 on Betfair – yes 65 !!

Now that clearly is crazy – and extremely suspicious.

She did come back in to around 30 at the off – but that is still a ridiculous price about a horse who was 8/1 this morning  - and on ratings the second best horse in the race.

The way she ran didn’t make me feel a whole lot better about things either.

She took up the running early – but was effectively a spent force by half way and pulled up before 4 out.

Episodes like that don’t leave a pleasant taste in the mouth…

Earlier on the card, Quito De La Roc was a surprise winner of the Kinloch Brae.

In theory he was good enough to take the race, but he had been out of form for a good while – and I didn’t expect the 2m4f trip to play to his strengths.

However, under a forceful ride from Paul Townsend, he made all and held off Roi Du Mee quite comfortably.

Joncol ran on to take third place – as I thought he might…

Back over at Wincanton, the market predicted that Ballyalia Man would prevail in the handicap chase – and so it turned out.

And that was despite Definity also being quite strong in the market – and running a fair race.

The 2 of them were pretty much backed to the exclusion of everything else, and at no point during the race did it look like the market was going to be wrong…

It is certainly some tipster this ‘market’ – if we could only harness it’s powers then we really could have something to go to war with !!

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 17th

Apparently there were no significant issues with the weather in Somerset and the meeting at Wincanton takes place as planned.

It is joined by a very decent fixture from Thurles, in Tipperary – and an AW ‘bumpers for jumpers’ card, at Lingfield

I had a number of possible tips for today – but most of them were marginal calls and I’ve ultimately decided on just the one.

Let’s hope I’ve made the right call !

Wincanton 2:50

Just occasionally, the subtle signs make such a racket, they can’t really be considered subtle…!

Etxalar is a case in point, today at Wincanton…

Not only has he been sent on a near 860 mile round trip from his stable in Perth – he is making the journey alone.

Further more, his jockey, Peter Buchanan, is making roughly the same journey, for just the one ride…

With the price of diesel, if they don’t take some price money home, it is going to have been a very expensive trip for them…!

Not that I would ever back a horse simply because of the subtle signs – but they do help.

A case for Etxalar, can also be made from the form book.

Once rated as high as 128 (and competitive off that mark) Etxalar has now fallen to a mark of 106.

Ofcourse, such a fall is invariably caused by a loss of form – and that has been the case with Etxalar. However, there have been signs in his last 2 runs, that things are starting to come back together for him.

On his penultimate outing at Haydock, he finished a creditable sixth behind Monsieur Cadou. He was still in with a chance jumping the second last that day, and only weakened after jumping the final flight.

Pettifour and Dusky Bob finished just in front of him that day: however I think both will struggle to beat him today – particularly the latter, who is 7lb worse off at the weights.

In his most recent outing, Etxalar again shaped with promise in a decent race at Mussleburgh.

He got slightly outpaced at a crucial stage of that race, but was staying on again at the finish. Todays extra 3 furlongs, should be in his favour.

Of his opponents, Chartreux is the one I fear most. He ran very well last time out behind Handy Andy, and could also still be improving.

However, todays marathon trip is an unknown – and he is plenty short enough in the betting…

I also respect the chance of afore mentioned Pettifour. He was a class act over hurdles and is gradually getting things together over fences. He ran really well last time out in the Sussex national – though he did have a hard race that day and it was only 11 days ago.

Whatever, I think the Etxalar will run his race today –and even if those 2 do perform to their optimum, he will still be hard to keep out of the frame.
Therefore, I have decided (rather unusually for me !) to go each-way on the selection – though I am very hopeful that he will be good enough to pick up the main prize.

0.5pt EW Etxalar 12/1 

I was hoping that I might be able to find another tip in the preceding race – but I couldn’t…

The problem is, I think Definity will win, if he is straight – but we have no way of knowing whether this will be the case (though I suspect the market will provide some clues !).

If he isn’t straight, then Fine Parchment will take some stopping off the same mark as the one he was agonisingly beaten off at Taunton.

Ballyalia Man is also of some interest – whilst I wouldn’t rule out a big run from Andreo Bambeleo. He was eye-catching last time at Haydock and if he gets the trip, I could see him going close.

Thurles put on a really good card, the high-light of which, is the group 2 Kinloch Brae chase…

It is a race that I quite wanted to tip in – and I did toy with tipping either Joncol or Rathlin, as I think that a case of sorts can be made for both…

Joncol is a dual grade 1 wining chaser, who was once rated 163. Receiving weight from most of his rivals, it would not surprise me if he were to bounce back to form today.

However, there is also a concern that he is in terminal decline – plus the 2m4f trip would be a bare minimum for him.

I’d love to see him win – but I suspect he will be running on late to claim a place.

Rathlin is a different sort of animal – and he will have no issues with todays trip.

However, the question with him, is whether he is good enough to win at this level.

Davy Russell appears not to think so – as he has deserted him for Roi Du Mee.

I suspect that Rathlin will give a bold sight up front for a good part of the race – but I am not so sure that he will still be there when it matters…

As for the winner of the race: if he stays the trip, Days Hotel will take the beating.

Finally, in the mares chase at 2:40, I was very tempted to tip Cnoc Seoda – each way…

And that was the real issue with the bet. A little like Spring Heeled on Sunday, I would expect her to run well – and be placed – but I really don’t think she will beat Tarla…

The form book says she would have gone close last time out (when they both fell at the final fence !) and the form book is right – but I have little doubt that Tarla is the better animal.

In fact, I think Tarla is potentially a high class animal – and I could easily see her making up into a very useful chaser indeed (something like the Ryanair chase wouldn’t be beyond her abilities – on suitable ground).

Avondhu Lady is another horse I like – and if you can find a bookmaker who will take it, a tricast of Tarla, Cnoc Seoda and Avondhu Lady might be the bet – though it would never be an official tip !!

Here’s to a good day ahead !

TVB.

Race review

No joy this afternoon…

Barlow and Iona Days ran reasonable enough races, but they - like the rest of the field – were completely outclassed by Loch Ba…

When I tipped that one back in November, I said that I thought it might have 20lb in hand of its current handicap mark.

Well, I was wrong !
It ran today off a mark 17lb higher – and the way it bolted up, it probably had 30lb in hand of it’s mark back that day !

It was a seriously impressive performance – and I wouldn’t want to be opposing the horse wherever it ran next. I could easily see it taking a 3 mile handicap at one of the big festivals – possibly even Cheltenham…

In truth, it was just not a performance I could foresee.

It had run relatively disappointingly last time at Ascot and I thought that was as good at it was.

With hindsight, it clearly didn’t perform that day – and maybe the near 2 month absence since that run was telling.

It is also possible that the horse runs best when fresh.

Whatever, it is certainly one to keep a very close eye on…

The ‘right’ horses were also placed, so the form is likely to be strong.

The unexposed pair of Mountianous and Ringa Bay were second and third – with Barlow fourth.

All 3 of these are likely to gain compensation for todays defeat before the season is over (Barlow, possibly over a slightly shorter trip).

Iona Days simply didn’t quite look good enough – but there was little shame in defeat and the way he travelled to the cross fence suggested that he too will be picking up a small race, sooner rather than later…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 16th

Amazingly, Newbury has survived the frost and they put on a fair card this afternoon…

I really thought it was sure to be abandoned, with temperatures dropping well below freezing – but it just shows what they can do nowadays – if they want to…

A couple of weeks ago, meetings were taking place when they looked as if they would be washed away: now they are running on ground that should by rights, be frozen solid.

I dare say the going with be on the crusty side of soft – but so long as it is safe, I have no problem with that ;)

Most of the card is for viewing only - with some interesting novice races and a potentially informative hunter chase. However, the handicap chase at 2:25 is the exception….

An absolutely cracking race – it is difficult to rule out any of the runners with confidence, but I’m hoping we might have some success with a split stake bet….

2:25

When I can’t see much between the runners in a particular race, I invariably gravitate towards the outsiders.

It makes sense really – if you think almost anything can win a race, you may as well side with one at a decent price !

In this particular occasion, I’ve decided to side with 2 at decent prices: Barlow and Iona Days.

Barlow is probably the most interesting – and the one of the pair that I fancy slightly more.

He is an unexposed 6 year old – and today will only be his seventh run under rules (though he has competed in 3 PTP races).

He ran 3 times over hurdles last season: wining his maiden and then run a very good race in a strong handicap at Cheltenham at the end of the season.

After a pipe opener over hurdles in October, he made his chasing debut in a hot novice chase at Kempton in November.

He was ultimately pulled up in that race after a shocking blunder at the third last. However, up to that point, he was more than holding his own with 3 chasers all rated in the 130s…

As if to prove he had been a little unlucky that time, on his next outing Barlow ran a fine third to Godsmejudge at Folkestone.

He travelled like the best horse in the race that day and only gave best to Godsmejudge between the final 2 fences.

The subsequent performance of that one in the Classic Chase at Warwick on Saturday, suggests that Barlow had again run to a 130+ rating.

If that is the case, then he is well handicapped today. He also has plenty of scope for progression.

My biggest concerns with him are his relative inexperience in a such competitive race – and his stamina…

He appeared not to quite get home last time and although he is dropping back in trip by a furlong today, he stamina remains a nagging doubt.

That said, Newbury is a flat track – and a relatively easy 3 miles. So if he is going to get the trip anywhere, it is likely to be here…

The other one I want on side, is Iona Days.

He is more exposed than Barlow – but still looks to be progressing to me…

He ran a fair race on his comeback at Newbury, 6 weeks ago.

He travelled nicely in that race, but ultimately weakened and finished 21 lengths behind the winner Sizing Santiago.

He met Sizing Santiago on his next run at Kempton over Christmas.

On the book, the 6lb turned around in the weights should not have been sufficient for Iona Days to turn the tables on his rival – but he did. That suggests to me that he is still progressing…

Again, he travelled well in that race – but was ultimately no match for the talented but enigmatic, (and appropriately named !) Mister Hyde. 

However, that form looks very strong to me…

In addition to Sizing Santiago (who has been in very good form), Politeo was back in fourth (and on a line through him, Iona Days holds Loc Ba) and Brackloon High was fifth (he subsequently won a decent race at Kempton on Saturday).

Iona Days has the kind of profile and connections that mean he is likely to be over-looked. This is likely to mean that he will start at a bigger price than I believe his form deserves…

Of the others, I respect the chances of Monkerty Tunkerty – but I think he is beatable.

I also respect the chance of Mountainous, but he is far too short a price, bearing in mind the competitive nature of the race and his inexperience.

I’m not getting particularly strong vibes for either of the Henderson horses – whilst Fighting Flynn also looks opposable.

2 others of interest are Allthekingshorses and Alderluck.

The former has a definite chance on his hurdle form of last season – but his jumping hasn’t been good enough this season for me to consider him.
Whilst Alderluck could be the potential fly in the ointment.

He was very heavily backed for an amateurs race at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham in November – but ran most disappointingly…

He has been given 2 months to recover from that run and if connections have sorted out whatever was bothering him – and he runs as well as was apparently expected that day – he could be a danger to everything…

On balance though, I am happy that the 2 we are with, have reasonable chances at decent prices, in what is a very tough race !!

0.5pt win Barlow 12/1

0.25pt win Iona Days 18/1

Here’s hoping for a good day ahead !

TVB.

Race review

One unexpected benefit of tipping, is that it has enabled me to become ‘virtual’ friends with a number guys who I would not otherwise have ‘met’…

As I’ve now been tipping for 3 or 4 years (to a greater or lesser extent) my network of virtual gambling buddies is getting to be quite significant…

One of the first guys that I met through the tipping, was Gags. He and I were members of a private racing forum for a couple of years – and shared views on plenty of races during our time there….

We’ve kept in touch since then – and he is now a subscriber to the TVB service.

He is also quite a keen form student – when time permits – so I’m always keen to hear his thoughts on a race…

Yesterday evening, out of the blue, he sent me a text, saying that he fancied Virginia Ash at Plumpton today.

Now I’ve got to be honest, without that prompt, Virginia Ash simply wouldn’t have been tip today. For a start, I didn’t actually expect the meeting to go ahead – but in addition to that, it wasn’t running in a race that I would have been particularly attracted to any way…

As it happened, I was reasonably familiar with the horse (I backed it when it got beaten at Exeter), so I had a starting point – and the rest, as they say, is history…

Watching the race, I really didn’t think that Virginia Ash had much chance of winning as he simply refused to settle in the early stages.

Running over the longest trip he had ever tackled – and on desperate ground – I was pretty sure that his early exertions would take a toll at the end of the race.

However that was not the case and he battled on valiantly to beat favourite Tidal Dance, with a fair gap back to Hazy Date in third.

The nature of he performance makes me think that he must have had a good deal in hand of his official mark. I suspect the handicapper will react quite harshly to the victory – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him raised around 10lb for the win (he will use the third/fourth placed horses to rate the form). Even so, I could easily see him defying such a hike in the weights – in fact, I think the first 4 home could all prove worth following next time, as this looked quite a strong race…

Half an hour earlier, Simply Wings had powered to a decisive victory in the 2m4f chase.

I didn’t think his form looked quite strong enough for him to prevail – but ultimately, I’m not sure that mattered too much.

What he did do, was act in the ground and jump – and non of his opponents were able to do the same.

One by one, they fell by the wayside, either because of errors – or an inability to act on the ground.

Whether he will be able to follow up off a revised mark, is debatable. That said, his sound jumping and ability to act in heavy conditions, will always stand him in good stead at this time of the year.

So, it was nice to get the week off to a winning start – even if it wasn’t all my own work !

Last week, I felt like we owed Ben Poste a drink – today, I feel like we owe Gags a drink !

If my virtual friendship group ever meets in the real world, it could end up having to buy quite a big round ! Still, if we are all showing a decent profit at that time, I don’t suppose there will be too many complaints ;)

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 14th

Rather surprisingly, they manage to race at Plumpton today – though looking out of my window, I suspect we should make the most of it, as I foresee a few barren days ahead…

I’ve got one tip – and some thoughts on a race that I nearly tipped in !

Let’s hope we can get the week of to a decent start….

3:40

Racing is a funny old game…

The final race at Cheltenham’s new years day fixture, just over 12 months ago, was a bumper…

It was won by a horse called The New One, who was following up a debut victory at Warwick, 6 weeks earlier…

Just 4 lengths behind him in third place that day, was Virginia Ash.

He was making his racecourse debut – and whilst comfortably beaten by The New One, it was a first run, that promised much…

On the journey home, doubtless both sets of connections dreamt about what the future might hold for 2 equally promising horses…

Roll on 12 months…

On Saturday, The New One took apart a decent field in winning the feature Grade 2 novice hurdle at Warwick. His pre-race rating was 143 – his post race rating will doubtless be in the 150s. As a result of that performance, he has been made favourite for the Neptune novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival…

2 days later, Virginia Ash gets to run in a class 4 hurdle at Plumpton on a Monday afternoon.

He has a mark of 103 – and nothing in his hurdling form entitles him to be rated a pound higher than that.

Rarely can 2 apparently similar horses, have charted such vastly different paths in such a short period of time.

And yet, initially at least, it didn’t look as if that would be the case.

Virginia Ash won on his second outing – and then contested the bumper at the Cheltenham festival. He was well beaten there, but there was little disgrace in that.
His final outing of the season was in a bumper at the Fairyhouse Easter festival. He finished 6^th of 19 in that – which again was a reasonably meritorious performance.

However, this season, the wheels have apparently come off and he has been unsighted in 3 novice hurdles.

First time out, he was quite well fancied at Wincanton, but jumped with no fluency and was soon struggling.

On his second outing at Exeter, he jumped better, but seemed to lack the pace required to lie up. In fairness, that was a decent contest, so there was little shame in finishing fifth.

His most recent outing saw a change in tactics and he was allowed to race more prominently.

This is often a tactic employed by connections who want to get their charges a good handicap mark. If the horse races prominently and then is allowed to weaken, there can be little doubt that it has run it’s best – and so the handicapper has to judge it on it’s finishing position. If the horse is never put in the race, the handicapper tends to be a little more suspicious !

Anyway, Virginia Ash raced prominently – and jumped much better than he had done previously – but he was ultimately well beaten.

The handicapper seems to have used that run to give him a mark…

And who knows, that mark might be absolutely right. The horse may have very limited ability and may spend the next few years trundling round small tracks in low grade races – but that didn’t appear likely to be the case 12 months ago…

If Virginia Ash is ever going to bounce back to form, it is likely to be today…

Based on his run in the Cheltenham bumper, if The New One was running in this race today, he would be carrying around 11st12lb. I do not exaggerate when I say that in that scenario, I don’t think the bookies would be prepared to price up the race !

There is little doubt in my mind, that connections will be having a real go today. The application of cheek pieces for the first time is a definite statement of intent.

There is a slight danger that even if Virginia Ash does show massive improvement, he still might not be good enough to cope with the even more unexposed Tidal Dance - but that is a chance we will just have to take.

Similarly, there is a possibility that neither of them will fulfil their potential and one of the more exposed runners will take advantage.

So, in short, he is no good thing…

However, if he does manage to recapture the form he showed last January – then I think he will take the world of beating – and 11/2 will look a very good price indeed…

0.5pt win Virginia Ash 11/2

The other race that I was interested in on the Plumpton card, was the proceeding 2m4f chase…

I was initially drawn to Simply Wings, on the back of an impressive win in a novice chase at Towcester and a fair run when a beaten favourite at Cheltenham.

He was 11/2 yesterday evening, which seemed a reasonable price – so I was certainly considering him as a tip.

However, the more I looked at his form, the more concerned I became.

His win at Towcester was visually impressive – but I’m not sure he beat anything. Similarly, he appeared to run well at Cheltenham, but everything from that race that has subsequently run, has been beaten.

In summary, his form looks questionable.

The other issue I have with him (and this supports the first point), is that he has come up short in handicaps off this mark in the past. The suggestion therefore, is that this mark represents the ceiling of his current ability.

Time will tell I guess…

With him out of the race, I see Midnight Sail as the most likely winner – with No No Bingo a possible danger. Unfortunately, those 2 are first and second favourite – so there is no obvious angle…

Worse still, I couldn’t completely write off Firebird Flyer or Delganny Gunner, so it had to be a no bet race…

If by any chance, Midnight Sail drifted to around 4/1, then I would be interested (3/1 seems about right for him).

Here’s hoping for a good day ahead…

TVB.