Daily write-up - Jan 11th

A relatively quiet day for a Friday, with just a couple of NH meetings taking place, at Huntingdon and Sedgefield.

A big day for us though, with a very strong bet in the penultimate race at Huntingdon…

Firstly, I should apologise for the timing of the issuing of today’s bets…

As I said last night, I wanted to strike as early as possible – I just didn’t appreciate how slow the bookmakers were going to be pricing up the races.

In an ideal world, I would have waited a further 15 mins or so before issuing, to enable more bookmakers to price up (and by then, the ones who had priced up, would also have been a little braver in standing a bet !).

Unfortunately however, I don’t live in an ideal world – and in the world I do live in, I need to be out of the house by 8:45 at the latest, for the school run.

Consequently, I was forced to issue the bets at that point (as I wasn’t prepared to risk the price still being there on my return).

Hopefully, it won’t have caused a big issue to most of you. The 4/1 was available with 4 bookmakers (and greater was available on Betfair) – and 7/2 is still available as I write this, 2 hours later…

I guess the main tip won’t have come as a big surprise to many of you – though you may be curious as to why I fancy it so much after it’s lamentable run last time out.

So, without further ado, the rationale for today’s bets….

Huntingdon 3:20

Long term TVB followers will doubtless remember Sophonie from last season…

She was trained by Ferdy Murphy then – and I tipped her twice as part of the early bird service…

She lost on both occasions – but I was still adamant that there was a win in her off a handicap mark of 110 or lower…

She transferred into the care of Tom George over the summer and made her debut for him at Exeter in October…

I clearly wasn’t the only one who thought she was well handicapped from last season , as she was backed into 2/1 favouritism that day, from an opening price of 5/1.

She was keen early in that race, but was still tanking entering the home straight.

She looked sure to win, but ultimately, emptied over the last couple of fences and finished third…

With that run under her belt – and over half a mile less – I thought she was a near certainty when she next appeared at Chepstow a fortnight later.

Again, she cruised through the race, but again she found nothing over the last couple of fences and ultimately finished last.

I thought at the time that the run had come too soon – but it would appear that there may have been a different reason for her stopping…

Today Sophonie gets to run in a tongue tie for the first time – which suggests that she has breathing issues.
In one respect, this is great news, as it explains why she folded late on in her last 2 runs. On the flip side, it also suggests that she might have a physical problem – which is never good news…

On balance however, I am prepared to take a positive view of it – plenty of horses improve for the application of a tongue tie and if she is now able to finish her races, she really will take the world of beating today.

My only other slight concern with her is her jumping. She is relatively inexperienced and has not been foot perfect on either of her runs this season.

However, I have a lot of faith in Tom George as a trainer – and in Paddy Brennan as a jockey – and now that they know the mare a little better, I am confident that they will be able to get her to deliver her best.

Looking at today’s rivals, then I also see a big positive in the way the race is likely to unfold…

Ajzal is a confirmed front runner – and Evella is similar. They are likely to blast from the gates and whilst they won’t do each other much good, they should ensure that Sophonie gets to race at a pace that will give her the best chance of settling…

It is difficult to make much of a case for many of her rivals:

I would probably nominate Sawago as the main danger – but not the kind of danger that I will be worried about if Sophonie runs to form.

Bobby Dove is potentially interesting with his feather weight – he is relatively unexposed but will need to show significant improvement if he is to trouble Sophonie.

Memorabilia also has scope for improvement – but I’m quite happy to take him on at the prices…

In short then, I think that if Sophonie’s breathing has been sorted out – and she jumps round cleanly – she will win.

I did actually consider making her a maximum bet at the prices – but I felt that might have been a bit too much of a shock for you all to take !

Instead, we’ll settle for 2pts – and just the 8pt profit if she does manage to deliver ;)

2pt win Sophonie 4/1

Huntingdon  1:50

I think Bertenbar is worth a small risk in this, on her second run for Fleur Hawes…

He made his debut for the stable at Towcester in December, on heavy ground. Towcester is a tough course to get round at the best of times, but heavy ground on your seasonal debut is likely to be a step too far for most animals.

To his credit, Bertenbar ran a really promisingly and was in with every chance until the home straight.

At that that point, he weakened out of proceedings but with the run under his belt I would expect him to last much longer today.

The handicapper has generously dropped him 2lb for that run, which leaves him on a mark just 2lb higher than his last victory.

That she achieved on his penultimate run – which was when he was under the care of Henrietta Knight.

It is generally accepted that Henrietta’s horses weren’t performing at that their best during the final couple of years training, so if Ms Hawes can eak some improvement out of Bertenbar, then he really should go close today…

In a weak race, Glen Countess looks the most potent danger – but at the prices, Bertenbar is the one to be on.

0.5pt win Bertenbar 8/1

Over at Sedgefield, 2 recent tips, Highway Code and Shadows Lengthen, lock horns in the novice chase at 1:10.

I wouldn’t have a strong view on which one will come out on top – and I could easily see them dominating the finish.

The only other one at the meeting that catches my eye, is Along Came Rosie in the handicap hurdle at 2:10…

Off a mark 14lb lower than her chase mark, she looks potentially well handicapped – and the booking of Dougie Costello for his only ride of the day, catches the eye…

She was 14/1 early on – but is now half that price and that looks much nearer the mark…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.