Monday 14 January 2013

Race review

One unexpected benefit of tipping, is that it has enabled me to become ‘virtual’ friends with a number guys who I would not otherwise have ‘met’…

As I’ve now been tipping for 3 or 4 years (to a greater or lesser extent) my network of virtual gambling buddies is getting to be quite significant…

One of the first guys that I met through the tipping, was Gags. He and I were members of a private racing forum for a couple of years – and shared views on plenty of races during our time there….

We’ve kept in touch since then – and he is now a subscriber to the TVB service.
He is also quite a keen form student – when time permits – so I’m always keen to hear his thoughts on a race…

Yesterday evening, out of the blue, he sent me a text, saying that he fancied Virginia Ash at Plumpton today.

Now I’ve got to be honest, without that prompt, Virginia Ash simply wouldn’t have been tip today. For a start, I didn’t actually expect the meeting to go ahead – but in addition to that, it wasn’t running in a race that I would have been particularly attracted to any way…

As it happened, I was reasonably familiar with the horse (I backed it when it got beaten at Exeter), so I had a starting point – and the rest, as they say, is history…

Watching the race, I really didn’t think that Virginia Ash had much chance of winning as he simply refused to settle in the early stages.
Running over the longest trip he had ever tackled – and on desperate ground – I was pretty sure that his early exertions would take a toll at the end of the race.

However that was not the case and he battled on valiantly to beat favourite Tidal Dance, with a fair gap back to Hazy Date in third.
The nature of he performance makes me think that he must have had a good deal in hand of his official mark. I suspect the handicapper will react quite harshly to the victory – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him raised around 10lb for the win (he will use the third/fourth placed horses to rate the form). Even so, I could easily see him defying such a hike in the weights – in fact, I think the first 4 home could all prove worth following next time, as this looked quite a strong race…

Half an hour earlier, Simply Wings had powered to a decisive victory in the 2m4f chase.
I didn’t think his form looked quite strong enough for him to prevail – but ultimately, I’m not sure that mattered too much.
What he did do, was act in the ground and jump – and non of his opponents were able to do the same.
One by one, they fell by the wayside, either because of errors – or an inability to act on the ground.
Whether he will be able to follow up off a revised mark, is debatable. That said, his sound jumping and ability to act in heavy conditions, will always stand him in good stead at this time of the year.

So, it was nice to get the week off to a winning start – even if it wasn’t all my own work !

Last week, I felt like we owed Ben Poste a drink – today, I feel like we owe Gags a drink !
If my virtual friendship group ever meets in the real world, it could end up having to buy quite a big round ! Still, if we are all showing a decent profit at that time, I don’t suppose there will be too many complaints ;)

TVB.

No comments:

Post a Comment