An incredible days racing – and not just because of Cheltenham, the supporting fixture at Leopardstown offers some brilliant racing and great betting opportunities as well.
As you all know, when there is racing at Cheltenham, I like to work my way through the card and offer thoughts on all of the races.
However, with an 8 race card – and me tipping in 3 of the Leopardstown races, time is not going to permit me to quite produce the detailed preview I would like.
Still, I’ll do the best I can – and hopefully cover all of the important aspects…
One important point to consider if you are betting at Cheltenham, is that it is ‘trials’ day – the clues are in the name !
Some horses will be running to clarify which race they should be running in at the festival. Add to this, the fact that some horses will be running because the timing is good with regard to a prep race for the festival - and you will realise that not everything today can be taken at face value…
Furthermore, the likely very heavy ground is another factor than needs to be carefully considered.
No horse with serious festival ambitions, is going to be bottomed to win today…
So, you need to find horses, who are running over the right trip; will be happy to win today (even if it means possibly sacrificing their chances in 6 weeks time); and who can handle the heavy ground…
That should help thin things down a bit !!
Anyway, without further ado, the rationale for today’s tips – starting at Cheltenham…
1:15
I have a sneaking suspicion that Hells Bay is going to run a very big race today…
He is a horse of significant ability – but also a horse with a history of physical problems.
At his prime, he was running off a mark of 156. Today he runs off a mark of 135.
He acquired his rating of 156 through a level weight victory over Medermitt (now rated 167) over this course and distance, 2 years ago. The sky looked the limit after that win, but things have fallen apart for him since that day.
Originally under the care of Paul Nicholls, Hells Bay produced his best performances for Colin Tizzard – but is now with Keiran Burke.
He was still with Tizzard when he ran in this very race last season. He was blown away by the subsequent Gold cup runner up The Giant Bolster that day – but as he was trying to give him 7lb, that wasn’t too surprising.
Which ever way you look at Hells Bay, he is potentially well handicapped – if only he can rediscover his form…
Evidence that he is capable of doing that, is limited – but not non-existent.
He has only run twice so far this season; first time up, he was brushed aside by Ghizao at Kempton. But on the back of a long absence, there was little disgrace in that.
His only subsequent outing was in the big 2m5f handicap at the Cheltenham December meeting.
Hells Bay fell at the fifth last that day, but he was still in contention and moving very nicely at the point of his departure.
Hells Bay fell at the fifth last that day, but he was still in contention and moving very nicely at the point of his departure.
It happened too far out to be categoric over where he might have finished – but I think it showed he is in good enough form to be given a chance today.
The one thing Hells Bay has always done, is travel. So if you are that way inclined, backing him and laying off in-running should certainly be an option.
For the purposes of tipping him though, I think each way is the right call…
In terms of his opponents, then Katenko was massively impressive last time out at Sandown. But a completely different track; shorter distance and bigger weight, mean that today will be a very different test.
I rate his chance – but 5/1 is tight enough.
I can draw a line through quite a few of the others for the reasons I mentioned in the introduction. That being the case, I am quietly optimistic that Hells Bay will at least be able to sneak into the frame today and reward us at a monster price !
0.5pt EW Hells Bay 50/1
2:25
Now let’s get this straight…
If Imperial Commander is even half the horse he was, in receipt of weight from the entire field, over a course and distance that is perfect for him, he will hack up today…
However, after 2 years off the course, on heavy ground, if he wins, it is likely to completely bottom him – and I’ll be surprised if he even runs in the Gold Cup, never mind gets competitive…
My guess is that he will be given a gentle ride – and get pulled up with half a mile to run.
All this said, if he gets backed into 2/1 favourite, take the hint and pile in !!
Assuming this won’t happen, we have rules one of the main contenders out of the race – and it is relatively easy to take out another, in Grands Crus…
As most of you know, I’m a big fan of the horse – but even I have to accept that he probably doesn’t stay 3 miles – never mind a bit more than 3 miles in desperate conditions.
Again, I can see him running well to a point – but I’ll be surprised if he gets home…
Looking for horses that will stay the trip; act in the ground and are ready to run for their lives, I think you end up with quite a short list…
Weird Al, Cape Tribulation, Quartz De Thaix, Hey Big Spender – and possibly Wayward Prince.
Weird Al puts in too many poor performances for my liking; whilst Hey Big Spender is just too out of form at the moment.
I think the ground may be the undoing of Wayward Prince – whilst the jumping of Cape Tribulation tends to be his achilles heal.
Therefore, the winner of the race will be Quartz De Thaix – QED !
He has a little to find on the weight s with a few of these (but not much); however he will handle both trip and ground – and is in the form of his life.
He may have looked an unlikely future winner of an Argento, when I tipped him on his seasonal reappearance at Bangor back in November, but looking at things objectively today, I’m optimistic that might just be the case !
0.5pt win Quartz De Thaix 10/1
Elsewhere on the Cheltenham Card:
I would be happy to take on the top 2 in the market in the opener, with Last Shadow and Roc Dapsis. There is a fair amount of guesswork involved, but I would expect both of the latter 2 to step up significantly on promising debut runs and give the market leaders something to think about.
In the second race on the card, I had ear marked Johns Spirit as a tip – and was quite happy with the 6/1 opening quote last night. However, 9/2 this morning is tight in a very trappy contest.
I still see him as the most likely winner – but there is little margin in his price…
The Victor Chandler is all about Sprinter Sacre.
I’ll be surprised if anything can get within 10 lengths of him – and expect Somersby or Williams Wishes to chase him home…
The novice hurdle at 3:00 is truly fascinating…
Coneygree will doubtless try to burn off The New One – but will he be successful ?
I’ve no idea – but I would be very concerned that if this race turns into a war it could harm the festival prospects of both animals.
Still, I guess we shouldn’t worry about that today – it is a race to savour in it’s own right…
The Cleeve hurdle looks between Oscar Whisky and Reve De Sivola.
If Oscar stays, he wins – if he doesn’t Reve should win…
Again, very much a race to watch –and don’t be surprised to see Knockara Beau run a big race at a huge price, He could be worth a small EW interest…
I don’t have a strong view on the finale.
However, Lord of House was mightily impressive in victory last time – and even with a 15lb weight hike, looks quite interesting at 15/2…
However, Lord of House was mightily impressive in victory last time – and even with a 15lb weight hike, looks quite interesting at 15/2…
Over to Leopardstown, where there are 4 tips in 3 races…
2:15
The big hope of the day !
Those of you who pay attention, shouldn’t really be too surprised by this tip.
I tipped Cootamundra in the grade 1 novice chase at the Leopardstown Christmas festival.
He ran a massive race that day to finished fifth and I did say after the race that if he was stepped back in trip by half a mile, it would take a serious horse to beat him…
He ran a massive race that day to finished fifth and I did say after the race that if he was stepped back in trip by half a mile, it would take a serious horse to beat him…
Well, he’s been stepped back in trip by half a mile – and dropped to Grade 2 level.
Now that doesn’t mean there won’t be a serious horse in the race capable of beating him – but it does make it a little more unlikely.
Not that I want to be overly dismissive of the chance of his opponents (with the possible exception of One Cool Shabra) as they are all very decent horses.
In fact, Texas Jack comfortably holds Cootamundra on their Christmas running – and so has to rate a very big danger.
I also respect the chance of the other 3 fancied horses – but I simply cannot have it that Cootamundra is a 20/1 shot today…
By my reckoning, he should be priced up in single figures – and even then, I would think he had been under-estimated !
He’s the kind of horse I love – because other people will dismiss him.
He is the oldest runner in the field – was exposed as of limited ability over hurdles – and comes from an unfashionable yard. Every time he runs, he is likely to represent value…
I won’t go into the subtleties of the form of his rivals – like I say, they are all decent animals and worthy of their ratings in the low 140s.
But so too is Cootamundra.
Better still, he will relish today’s heavy ground – and the 2m5f trip will be perfect for him.
Touch wood, he also jumps like a cat (which is very important in novice chases).
I am fearful of Texas Jack – and considered a saver on him (and win only on Cootamundra).
However, the odds for Cootamundra to finish second were better than the odds on Texas Jack to win – so that swung me !
Hopefully, he won’t let me down today. I know in my heart, that he is a good bet – but ofcourse, that counts for nothing.
He needs to convert that into a big performance – fingers crossed he can do just that…
Hopefully, he won’t let me down today. I know in my heart, that he is a good bet – but ofcourse, that counts for nothing.
He needs to convert that into a big performance – fingers crossed he can do just that…
0.75pt EW Cootamundra 20/1
2:45
I’ve said many times before, that when you put a graded horse in a handicap, there tends only to be one result: Victory.
I believe that Hidden Cyclone is a graded horse – and this race is certainly a handicap – so I’m optimistic of a positive outcome !!
The concern is that he’s got to carry 11st10lb in heavy ground –and has 17 rivals to beat !
However, I wouldn’t be too worried about most of the rivals – and I’m pleased to see him running over a trip of 2m5f as opposed to the 3 miles over which he was tried last time out.
That was in the grade 1 Lexus chase on Boxing day. Hidden Cyclone ran Ok to a point that day – but his jumping was not as slick as normal and he ultimately didn’t get home
There should be less pressure applied to him jumping today in this lower class – and his stamina over the trip won’t be an issue either.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that he finished within a length and a half of current Gold Cup second favourite, Sir Des Champs, in the novice chase on this card , last year.
Of his rival’s Glam Gerry stands out to me. In receipt of 24lb he could be a massive danger. However, he is far more exposed than Hidden Cyclone – so scope for improvement should be limited.
Lets just hope that the class of the Cyclone sees him through ;)
0.5pt win Hidden Cyclone 7/1
3:20
The Boylesport.com hurdle – The Irish Sweeps hurdle from my youth – has always been a tremendous spectacle – but almost unfathomable !
I remember trying many times over the years – but I don’t recall getting too many winners !
Nowadays, it is not quite the race is used to be - but it still looks a bit of a puzzle !
I’ve decided to take 2 Gigginstown runners against the field – win only – both at big prices…
Discoteca is a horse I tipped over the Christmas period when he ran really well to finish fourth.
He was given too much to do that day –and his jumping wasn’t particularly slick. Otherwise, I think he would have gone very close in that race.
He has been raised 2lb for that run – but I can’t honestly see that being a big issue…
The other one I’m siding with is Edeymi.
He ran second in he Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, last spring.
He had disappointed in all of his subsequent runs, until he won – unfancied – at Dundalk, last Friday evening…
He now gets to run off a mark 3lb lower than the one he ran from at Cheltenham, so he is clearly well handicapped. If he is also back in some form, then he must have a sporting chance today.
One thing that strikes me as slightly odd about both horses, is that they are being ridden by very inexperienced apprentices.
Mr D O’Leary, who rides Discoteca has only managed 1 win in his career – from a little mote than 20 rides: whilst Shane Shortall, the rider of Edeymi, has only had 7 rides under rules and is yet to ride a winner !
I can’t imagine that such inexperience is a positive in a race such as this – however the 7lb that both riders claim, will doubtless help significantly..
At the end of the day, you can read it either way – and I don’t know sufficient about either of the jockeys to judge.
However, I do know that this is a very valuable handicap and that Gigginstown generally play things straight, so I’m prepared to take the risk – to small stakes of course ;)
0.25pt win Discoteca 33/1
0.25pt win Edeymi 25/1
We’ve got some very big priced runners going for us today – so it’s an afternoon likely to end in drought or glory !
If we get that little bit of luck which you always need, then I’ll happily take my chance on the outcome ;)
TVB.
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