Race review

It’s funny to think, that little over a month ago, I was bemoaning the fact that 9 out 12 of my most recent tips that had traded odds on in-running, had lost…

We are now in the situation where the last 6 tips that have traded odds on in running have all won !

You can either view that as luck evening itself out – or as an illustration of just how bizarre the situation in December was…

The point is, the tips I’ve issued this month, have been no better than the tips I issued in December – in fact, I think you can argue that they have been worse (or at least, less consistent).

However, that little bit of luck has been with us this month – when it was missing last month – and from a P&L perspective, the difference that makes, is massive…

Nobody can tell me that Jadanli today, was a better trip than Monastrell on day 2 – or indeed Another Flutter or Rubert.

However, fortune favoured Jadanli, in a way that it had not done for the other 3…

They really are fine lines – and that is what makes a raw P&L potentially so mis-leading.

Those of you who know me, would be aware that I would feel just as uncomfortable with a P&L that grossly flattered what I was producing – and that is why I will always want to look at my figures with as much ‘luck’ stripped out as possible…

With regard to the race today, then Jadanli ran precisely as I had hoped he would.

I don’t honestly think that he ran significantly better than he had done last year – he was just fortunate that most of his main rivals didn’t perform.

I fully expected that to be the case for a few of them – and that is why I though he was a cracking bet, to be placed. However I didn’t expect them all to under-perform, but that is what happened and pleasingly, Jadanli was able to take advantage…

I would honestly doubt whether he will be able to build on this victory.
He is an 11 year old, whose best days are behind him. I don’t suppose he will get a massive hike in the weights for this win – but it will probably be sufficient to stop him following up – unless circumstances fall in his favour again…

Not that it matters a jot ! Today was the day that really counted – not just for us, but for his connections as well.

The old warrior richly deserved a final day in the sun – and it was very pleasing that we were able to share it with him.

Now by my calculation, just a couple more winners from horses trading odds on, and the books will be balanced – I trust non of you are planning to go anywhere ;)

TVB.