Just the one NH meeting survives the elements today – at Gowran Park in County Kilkenny.
Furthermore, there is only one race of any real interest – the Thystes Chase.
However, it is a cracking contest – and it wasn’t too difficult for me to find a tip in it…
3:25
Towards the end of November, the Troytown chase was run at Navan…
It is a similar race to the Thystes: a very valuable 3 mile handicap chase.
I tipped 2 horses in the Troytown: Zardsky and Jadanli.
My original plan that day, was to only put up Jadanli each-way, but I had a last minute change of heart.
Today, I’ve stuck to my guns !!
Jadanli ran a cracking race in the Troytown, staying on to finish fourth.
In truth, he never looked likely to win that day – but he would have collected place money, if that had been the call.
I’ll be quite happy with that result today – and in truth, it is probably the most likely outcome.
I think Jadanli has got a chance of winning – assuming the ground is truly bottomless. But in all probability, one or two of the younger, less exposed sorts will prove his master.
Jadanli actually finished an honourable third in this very contest 12 months ago –when he started at odds of 50/1.
That was the first notable form he had shown in some while – but he has been quite consistent since that point.
Despite that, he gets to run off a 2lb lower mark today – so all things being equal, it is difficult to see why he won’t run a very big race.
Jadanli has run twice since the Troytown and whilst both runs might appear a little disappointing, I don’t really think that was the case.
On each occasion, he was tackling a marathon trip – and I don’t think he stays much more than 3 miles.
Certainly, last time out in the Welsh National, he was moving well enough rounding the home turn, but just ran out of steam up the home straight.
Back over a trip that we know he gets; on a course we know he likes and on ground he relishes, I fully expect him to bounce back to the form he showed in the Troytown.
Of course, that still might not be good enough to win the race – and it is interesting to see that connection have re-applied cheek pieces today, presumably in an attempt to eek out a little more improvement. He has also been dropped 4lb in the handicap since that run – which will help.
If Jadanli proves not quite good enough, there are around half a dozen others, who I think may be capable to taking advantage…
The Willie Mullins trained Bishopsfurze, is the most obvious one to start with. He has a serious engine – but some jumping issues. If Ruby can sort him out, he could be well handicapped, despite carrying top weight.
Son Amix is a similar character. Very talented – but with limited experience over the bigger obstacles. If everything clicks with him, he could make 14/1 look a generous price.
Tullintain finished second in this race last season – a place ahead of Jadanli. There is a 4lb turn around in the weights today – but that should make it very close between the pair of them. His chances must therefore be respected – but at 12/1, he doesn’t have the EW attraction of the selection.
The Westerner Boy and Panther Claw are both young novices with plenty of scope for improvement.
However, I would be more fearful of the enigmatic Outlaw Pete…
He has proved a revelation running over the cross country courses - and on his form in that discipline, he is thrown in today.
He is also potentially well handicapped on the form he showed in the Cork National, in November. He looked likely to win that race, until running out on the approach to the last.
He has been raised 8lb for that run – but a bigger concern is the apparent show of temperament.
If he keeps everything together today, he will take the beating – but he clearly is a little quirky.
I could also see Belle Brook running a big race – and she is fairly priced at around 18/1.
However, on balance, I am happy to go with Jadanli – each way. Safe in the knowledge that there are no reasons why he won’t run a very big race – and if that is the case, I’ll be a little surprised if 4 of his rivals are able to finish in front of him…
0.5pt EW Jadanli 28/1
Here’s to a good afternoon ahead…
TVB.
Great job, the variance equals out in the end.
ReplyDeletethought you might have managed the second as well :}
ReplyDeleteCheers Average Guy.
ReplyDeleteI think few would disagree that variance evens itself out in the end – but when is the end..?
My tipping season lasts for 5 months. You would hope that would be long enough for luck to even itself out – but it might not be.
Certainly when you experience poor luck for the first 2 months, the doubts inevitably start to creep in.
The problem is, luck is no respecter of history. Just because your luck has been poor for a couple of months, doesn’t mean it won’t be poor for a couple more. Similarly, if your luck has been good for a couple of months, it is just as likely to be good again for the next two.
Luck, by nature, is a completely random thing…
Anyway, it would appear that it has shown a level of decency and chosen to even itself out ! – to a point at least.
I’m now just a couple of winners away from what I believe would be a balanced ‘luck’ situation – and I’ll take that !
I’ve never been after good luck – neutral luck will do me just fine :)
TVB
Funnily enough Anon, Tarquinius was not a horse I fancied at all…
ReplyDeleteI was pretty confident that Jadanli would have the measure of all the exposed horses (with the possible exception of Tullintain) – it was the unexposed ones that I was fearful of…
Fortunately (!), they all decided to fall, unseat or just under-perform – and Jadanli was able to prove himself the best exposed horse in the line-up.
Even if only by the narrowest of margins !!
TVB.