Daily write-up - Jan 31st

The final day of January - where did the month go ?!

As always, I’ will be producing a monthly report – though I’m not quite sure when !

Tomorrow looks like it might be a quiet day, so there will be possibilities then – otherwise, it is likely to be Sunday evening…

Anyway, on to today’s action !

Wincanton managed to survive a morning inspection and so they race there this afternoon - along with Towcester…

There has been lots of rain at both venues, so the going will the very heavy.

That is particularly significant at Towcester, which is a tough course at the best of times.

Expect to see slow motion finishes and very few runners completing the course…

I’ve found 3 tips for the day, so we are in for a busy time.

Unfortunately, I will be out of the house all day myself so I won’t be able to see any of the action live.

However, I will make sure that I catch up on things as soon as I’m back home – and I can normally count on the likes of Roy and Ciaran to keep me updated on how things are goings (particularly if they are going well !).

I’m a little short of time before I go out, so the rationale for today’s tips is a bit shorter than usual.

Hopefully, I will cover all the pertinent points however !

Wincanton 2:40

This is a very decent race – but I’m hopeful that Milarrow might have snuck into it on a workable mark…

He is a relatively inexperienced novice, with only 3 runs over fences. However he has shown promise in all 3 of those runs and if he can jump a little slicker today, I think he is handicapped to just about win this.

He has been unfortunate to come against some very useful horses in his recent outings. However, he has acquitted himself well in all of those races – and still looks on a mark form which he can do some damage.

Certainly, on a line through Sustainability, whom he beat by 1 ¼ lengths, when conceding 3lb, he looks well handicapped.

That one ran creditably off a mark of 122 yesterday, suggesting that Milarrow could be rated close to 130.

That suggestion wouldn’t look ridiculous in the context of his runs behind Parsnip Pete or Rajdhani Express.

Trip and going should also be fine for him – and his light weight will be a bonus in the heavy ground.

He is Joe Tizzard’s only ride of the day – let’s hope he makes it count !

0.75pt win Milarrow 11/1

 

Wincanton 3:10

There can be little doubt that Michel Le Bon is the one to beat in this race.

However the concession of 26lb to Jaunty Journey, in very heavy ground, might just tip the scales in favour of the latter.

This could certainly end up being a bit of a war – with a number of front-runners and very heavy ground.

An ability to get the trip will be essential whilst a light weight will be advantageous.

Jaunty Journey should have no issue with the trip – and just sneaks into the handicap on the minimum weight.

He ran disappointingly last time out at Catterick – but the time before he ran extremely well in a slog at Haydock.

If he can recapture the Haydock form, he should go close today.

I was half tempted to put him up EW – partially because of the presence of Michel Le Bon – and partially because he does have a very goods record of placing – but I resisted !

Let’s hope I got that cal right and he comes home in front  !!

0.5pt win Jaunty Journey 14/1

Towcester 3:50

I must admit that Red Mile is a bit of a speculative selection in this race – but I will kick myself if he wins and we aren’t on him, and I don’t want to be doing that !

Purely on the formbook, his chance is limited – however I am very optimistic that the application of a visor will elicit improvement form a horse that has always threatened to be far better than his current mark of 99.

Last time out at Newbury, he ran disappointingly and was well beaten, However, he was a 5/1 shot that day, for a better race than he runs in today, so somebody clearly thinks he is up to winning a contest such as todays.

He was being niggled throughout that race – which presumably is why a visor has been applied today.

It actually says much for his ability, that he was still there with half a chance down the home straight, but he could only keep on at one pace and ultimately finished well beaten.

There is of a course a danger that the visor will light him up today – and he won’t get home. As I said in the introduction, Towcester is an unforgiving course at the best of times – and in heavy going it will be brutal.

However, the fact remains that Red Mile could be significantly better than his current mark – and he does get 3 miles OK – so if the visor helps focus his mind, he could take a lot of beating.

0.5pt win Red Mile 8/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead – and a positive end to the month ;)

TVB.