Daily write-up - Jan 30th

It’s good to see some mid-week turf NH racing again…

Leicester passed it’s morning inspection, so there will be 2 meetings today – the other one at Ludlow…

When I saw an all chase card at Leicester (the hurdle races were abandoned last week) I fully expect my attention would be there. However, on closer examination, it was the Ludlow card that I found the more attractive…

I’ve ended up with only one tip – but I did consider a couple of others.

I’ll go through the rationale for the tip first – and then briefly mention the other possibilities…

3:10

This is a really trappy race - and one that I spent a lot of time last night, turning round and round, in the search for the winner…

Unfortunately, the winner refused to drop out ! – but what I did eventually find, was a decent bet in Go on Arch – and who knows, he might be up to winning…

Go on Arch has only had 8 career outings: 3 over fences; 3 over hurdles and 2 in bumpers…

Looking at his form, it appears that he was initially quite well thought of as he made his debut in the bumper run at the Cheltenham November meeting (the race was actually won by subsequent champion hurdler, Rock on Ruby).

He made little show in that race – and in truth, made little show in all of his subsequent runs, until his most recent outing at Lingfield…

Funnily enough, our old friend, the market, expected him to put up an improved showing in that particular race – and so it proved…

Backed down to 4/1 second favourite, Go on Arch raced prominently before losing his place when the field quickened down the home straight.

However, he stayed on well from the last fence and was closing in third place, when the line came.

He is significantly stepped up in trip to 3 miles today, and provided his stamina holds out, he has the potential to be very interesting of a mark of just 97.

Aside from him, I could make a case for any one of half a dozen !

The 2 market leaders, Rydalis and Father Probus were both decent winners last time out –and have the scope to improve further…

Quinte De Chatelet has also got scope for improvement – though he does have quite a bit to find on the book, based on recent runs…

Emperor Concerto could be given a chance on his best form – whilst Kellystown Lad is also potentially interesting, for Tom George…

On balance though, I think it is worth taking a risk with Go on Arch.

He doesn’t currently have the form to win – but he does have potential – and is also a very nice price ;)

0.5pt win Go on Arch 12/1

I was half expecting to have a tip for the previous race – the mares handicap hurdle…

The horse I was expecting to tip, was On the Off Chance, who went into my notebook, when taking a fall on her last outing.

The trouble is, she is a 3 raced maiden, owned by J P McManus and trained by Jonjo – I feel whatever we do with her, we are likely to be a step behind connections !!
Looking at the race in more detail, I was actually drawn to Annaluna…

She has form tied in with our old friends Queens Grove and Lady Kathleen – and also ran well on her latest outing.

She strikes me as the solid option in the race – but then I would be fearful of On the Off Chance !

Worse still, there are at least a couple more in the race that I could also be fearful of – so at a  best price of 6/1 the two I was interested in, there seemed little margin and so I decide to swerve the race…

The novice chase at 2:10 is also a very interesting looking race…

The 2 market leaders, Heez a Cracker and Sustainability, both look like they would prefer 2m4f  - so Ludlow’s sharp 2m seems a slightly odd call.

That should provide an opportunity for the third favourite – Furrows – but all the furore that surrounded his last run, would make me nervous about backing him.

Tom Du Lys has a theoretical chance – but if he is to win, the market will doubtless tell…

On balance, despite trip reservations, I suspect Sustainability is the most likely winner – but he clearly couldn’t be a tip (or even a bet !).

Over at Leicester, the most interesting runner is probably Safran De Cotte.

We were on him last time when he finished fourth in a fair handicap at Doncaster.

It looked to me as if he needed a longer trip that day – but he gets to run over a slightly shorter one today !
That said, Leicester has a tough finish – and he is back in novice company.

I make him the most likely winner of the race – but don’t find a best price of 5/2 too difficult to swerve !


Here’s hoping for a decent day ahead !

TVB.