A low key day, with NH meetings at Leicester and Chepstow…
It’s over a week since I last produced a daily report – and it feels a little odd to be writing them again !
However, I know I needed a break – and whilst it may take a day or two to get fully back into the swing of things, hopefully, the benefit of the rest will soon show itself.
Who knows, that may even happen today – though I’m keeping expectations in check.
I’ve got a couple of horses that I think have chances – and are over-priced – but I wouldn’t want to over sell their chances.
Both run at Leicester, so I will begin the preview there…
3:15
This is a tricky little novice handicap chase – and it is difficult to be adamant on whether Jack the Gent is well handicapped…
He is relatively lightly raced for a 9 year old – and today’s race is the first handicap he has contested.
It is also only the third chase of his life – but when you look at him, you can see that this is the job he was bred to do.
Not that his hurdles form was too shabby: placed efforts behind Red Merlin, Desert Cry and King of the Night read well in the context of today’s race.
His first time out run over fences this season also looks fair form: a third behind Lets Get Serious and Rick. However, his last run at Catterick was disappointing.
That said, it was his second run back after a long absence – and there is always the possibility that he ‘bounced’ that day.
Certainly, if we ignore that run, he doesn’t look badly handicapped on a mark of 114. For a start, that is 5lb lower than his mark over hurdles and there is no way that he won’t end up a better chaser than he was hurdler…
Today’s’ 2 mile trip on quicker ground, should suit him well and I expect to see him near the front from the off, hopefully demonstrating his sound jumping technique.
The nature of the race (inexperienced novices) means that there is always a chance that there will be something that shows marked improvement.
Prince of Dreams (who was unlucky last time) and Rouge et Blanc, look his most dangerous opponents.
However, I’m hopeful that Jack the Gent will get into a rhythm up front and prove very difficult for his opponents to catch – never mind pass !
0.5pt win Jack the Gent 9/1
3:45
I have to admit that this is a speculative bet…
However, the subtle signs are quite keen and I can see an argument in the form book – so at the price, I figured it was worth a small play.
The other attractive aspect of the race, is that it contains a short priced favourite in Thunderstorm, who is quite a strong candidate to ‘bounce’. He was a convincing winner last time out – but that was after a break of nearly 2 years. I wouldn’t be rushing to take odds on about him following up, just 3 weeks later…
Maybe Henok should be the one we are taking him on with. David Pipe has sent him a long way for his second run under his care. However, he will need to show significant improvement on his debut run for the stable, when he was a tailed off last of 6. That is a distinct possibility – but the betting is likely to tell us how he is going to run today, which makes him difficult to tip...
Instead, I am opting for Ruby Crown.
She showed decent form last season – but has been very disappointing in her 3 runs this term.
In truth, it is not easy to explain why she has run so badly this season: I can forgive her her first run, which was maybe needed – and her last run was possibly over too far – but the run at Huntingdon is more difficult to excuse.
Still, that is all factored into the price – and back on better ground, off a mark 2lb lower than her last winning mark, she is of some interest from a handicapping perspective.
She is also of some interest to the ‘subtle signs’…
She is Kim Bailey’s only runner today – but more interestingly, she is the only ride for Jason Maguire…
Maguire is a top jockey and for him to travel to Leicester for one ride – and not even for his retained stable – strikes me as significant…
In summary then: with doubts about the top 2 in the betting; a potentially well handicapped horse – and an interesting jockey booking, at 20/1 Ruby Crown looks worth a small play to at least run a half decent race.
0.25pt EW Ruby Crown 20/1
In the 1:00 race, my first tip of this season, Caulfields Venture has been installed as favourite (unlike when I tipped him !)…
He has a chance, but the one that interests me most in the race, is the bottom horse, Hollow Heartbeat.
However, there is a lot of guesswork involved –and again, the market is likely to reveal his true chances.
If his is backed down to around the 5/1 mark, expect him to go very close…
I’m generally a big fan of racing at Chepstow – but I’m struggling to find much to enthuse about there today…
In the opener, Ballymurry catches my eye (mainly because of connections) – 40/1 is the kind of price where it might be worth taking a small risk…
I was half interested in Mauricetheathelte in the 1:55 race – despite the fact that he had a hard race over course and distance just 3 days ago…
I might have been tempted at the 12/1 on offer last night – but at 7/1 this morning, he is easy to pass on.
Finally, I would expect Shangani to win the 2:30 for Venetia – but I would want greater than 6/4 about him doing so, for me to become interested in betting on him…
Just one final point.
A few of you have contacted me saying that you were unable to open the spreadsheets that I sent out with the monthly report.
I created them in Microsoft works format – which I believe is a basic ‘office’ tool that is distributed with all Microsoft machines (it’s a very primitive version of Exel).
If you are unable to view them in this format for any reason – and would like to be able to do so – please contact me and I will arrange for them to be converted into a different format.
Here’s hoping for a good day ahead – and a positive (if belated) start to the new year !!
TVB.
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