Monthly summary - December

I’ve got a day at home before I head away again, which has given me the opportunity to produce a monthly report for December…

December felt like a frustrating month: one in which I put in a lot of time and effort but didn’t really go anywhere – and that is backed up by the headline P&L figures:

Main line tips

Total Staked: 28.75pts

Total Profit: 3.5pts

ROI: 12%

Early bird tips

Total Staked: 1.5pts

Total Profit: -1.5pt

I mentioned last month that I also wanted to adjust the monthly figures for the impact of ‘luck’.

The main reason for this is because I am tipping over a relatively short period of time, there is a danger that luck could have a significant impact on the numbers.

If I am to accurately assess whether my tipping is at the level required, it makes sense to try and strip out some of the luck and examine the figures in a purer form.

This can be achieved by assuming that each bet was exited once the horse went odds on in-running, to guarantee the same profit whether it won or lost.

If this had been done throughout December, then the total profit on the month for main line tips would have been 8.125pts – with an ROI of 28%.

I should point out that for December, I calculated the ‘raw’ profit using the best prices available at the time I issued the tips.

In November I used the best generally available price – but this month, 3 of the 5 winning tips were available at a bigger price shortly after I tipped them, than they were when I tipped them.

You would also have made roughly the same profit taking Betfair SP as you would if you have taken the best early price. Therefore, I would expect everyone to have pretty much matched the prices recommended for the tips.

Concentrating on the main line tips:

There were 51 tips across 45 races (so about 10% down on November – mainly due to me having a few days off).

These yielded 5 winners and 9 seconds: which represents a first or second strike rate of 31% from the 45 races.

Even more impressive, is the fact that 15 of the horses traded at odds on in-running – which is 33%.

There was actually a period during the month, when 12 out of 24 horses tipped, traded odds on in-running. A 50% strike rate for nearly half the month, is quite staggering consistency…

However, as you all know (due to me bemoaning it so much !), luck was not in our favour during this period and only 3 of those 12 horses won.

Ironically, when the strike rate backed off towards the end of the month, 2 out of the 3 horses to trade odds on, won. This resulted in us making bigger profits when the tipping wasn’t as consistent ! (as I keep on saying, luck is very important)

The other thing that worked in our favour towards the end of the month was the victory of Tweedledrum.

As we saw last month, it is not simply about the number of horses that manage to convert winning positions – it is equally important the ‘right’ horses win (ie. the ones at the biggest odds and greatest stakes).

Tweedledrum was one such horse (with an advised price of 18/1) and her victory effectively off-set 3 or 4 of the earlier odds on losers…

This said, her victory was itself effectively cancelled out by the defeat of Captain Chris – so on balance, it is once again fair to say that we didn’t really get the rub of the green this month…

However, it was a second profitable month in a row – and if we do ever get a bit of luck, I still think there is a possibility that we could do very well indeed…

Away from the figures, then I found December a little less intense that November (taking a few days off certainly helped).

Though I did also find the run of near misses very frustrating and by the end of the month, I felt that I needed to have a few days break (hence where I am now !).

One thing that has become clear to me during the month is that the early bird tipping isn’t really working…

I’ve always had some reservations – but it has history with me, so I was reticent to let it go completely.

I know from the survey that you are split down the middle on it: some of you want more – whilst some of you don’t want it at all.

However, 2 months in and I think I can now say with some confidence that it isn’t really working…

I’ve only sent out 4 early bird tips – and I’ve felt uncomfortable about each one (either knowing that most of you won’t get on – or me not really fancying as much as I feel I should)

Therefore, I am going to draw a line under the early bird tips and not issue any more.

At least I can leave them behind, safe in the knowledge that most of you secured a few points profit from them (courtesy of Coneygree).

Furthermore, I won’t generally issue any tips whatsoever in the evening and on the occasions that I do (normally, when there are very big races the next day) I will advise earlier in the day.

Consequently, I will no longer be issuing tip notifications in the evening, as a matter of course.

From now on, you are only guaranteed to receive an email in the morning window, advising of any tips that day.

Finally, on the back of another suggestion from the survey, I have attached a basic spreadsheet containing some details on the tips for December (and a second one for November – for completeness).

Hopefully, you will be able to work out what everything means – if not, (or if you want additional detail) give me a shout !

I hope you find all of the above of interest.

Here’s looking forward to a profitable January – when maybe luck will start to move in our favour…

TVB.