Selections - 27th Oct

Looking at tomorrow’s cards, there can be little doubt that the pendulum has swung - and from now until Cheltenham, NH is going to be the dominate code !

The Channel  4 cameras are still focusing on the flat action at Doncaster and Newbury – but is anyone really going to be interested in the result of Racing Post Trophy, when an amazing looking field has been assembled for the Old Roan chase ?!

And it’s not just Aintree that is hosting top class NH action tomorrow – there is also an excellent card at Chepstow – and a few decent looking races at Stratford.

It’s been great to see my old favourites out running again this week. On Monday, it was Pocket Aces (my most tipped horse from last season !); whilst on Tuesday, Sophonie made her debut for Tom George – and tomorrow, my favourite of the lot, Plein Pouvior, reappears at Chepstow,

However, a little like the other two, I will be surprised if he makes a successful reappearance…

Chepstow may be his course; and top weight over 2 and a half miles, his conditions – but I doubt the ground will really be soft enough for him and he’s never previously been at his peak first time out.

I will be taking a watching brief, with a view to following him again, later in the season…

The whole Chepstow card strikes me as one to be viewed without major financial interest. However, essential viewing it almost certainly will be, as a host of potentially promising horses will be on show throughout the afternoon.

Stratford can’t claim the quality of Chepstow, but it can claim one very interesting race, in particular…

The handicap chase at 2:50, looks like a real screamer…

The market is likely to be dominated by the dark horses, Ulck Du Lin (trained by Paul Nicholls) and Kateal (ridden by AP McCoy).

Either could well be good enough to hack up – but the most interesting betting proposition, is the Victor Dartnell trained Requin.

His seasonal debut last year, was marred by a fall. However that took place in a class 1 chase at Ascot and he was in a very creditable third place at the time.
He gets to run off a 5lb lower mark and showed that day, he is capable of performing well when fresh.

Victor Dartnell invariably starts the season in good form and this year is no exception.

The sensible call is EW, but a wager on Requin, is certainly the value call at close to double figures.

Selection: Requin 9/1 (EW)

By far the best meeting of the day however, is at Aintree.

For the time of year, they have put on a truly outstanding card, with significant interest in just about every race….

In the opener, I was initially drawn to Empire Levant – but it would appear that everyone else has been as well !!

He has already almost halved in price and whilst he could still have the potential to take this, even off top weight, I am mindful of the fact that this is likely to be a pipe-opener for a campaign over fences. At the current prices, I am more interested in Agent Archie.
Whilst at face value, he was disappointing on his seasonal debut at Stratford, I think he might have needed that run and would expect him to put in an improved performance tomorrow.

A quote of 11/1 from Sky bet, looks quite tempting…

In the veterans chase, I was very interesting in Nikola – but expected bigger than the 5/1 on offer.

I guess that is being impacted by the fact he won this very race last season  - and off a higher mark.

He could easily do the same thing tomorrow – but I just don’t see much of a margin in the price, as the race looks quite open and there is a lot of guesswork involved concerning the fitness of all of the runners…

My second selection of the day, is in the 2m4f chase at 2:55.

Pasco was trained by Paul Nicholls last season and started that campaign off a mark of 146. He didn’t actually run that badly in his 4 outings, so I really don’t understand why the handicapper has chosen to drop him to a mark of 130…

That really could be a gift – and I fully expect his new trainer, Colin Tizzard, to try and take advantage of it. He’s put top apprentice Brendan Powell on board, which takes another 3lb off the horse’s back.

There is a possibility that Lexicon Lad or Sizing Santiago, will improve past Pasco this season -  but he sets a pretty high standard and strikes me as very good value at the current prices.

Selection: Pasco 9/2

The Monets Garden Old Roan chase, is an absolute cracker ! So many old favourites lining up – and the season is barely underway.

The first thing that strikes me about the race, is that there could be an abundance of pace.

Wishful Thinking, Stagecoach Pearl, Nacarat and Mad Max, have all run their best races, when forcing the pace.

Of the quintet, Nacarat is the one most likely to be successful in the race for the lead – but that scenario rarely favours any of those who could be involved…

It looks hugely significant, that Pual Nolan has chosen this race as the season opener for Noble Prince.

He was vying for favouritism for the RyanAir chase for most of last season, suggesting that he should be well handicapped off a mark of 158.

I would have him down as the most likely winner – and a price of 13/2 seems fair enough.

If it weren’t for the pace angle, I could certainly be interested in Mad Max – and his price of 25/1 is potentially huge, if the race unfolds in his favour.

However, the other than that catches my eye, is Mahogany Blaze. He has always been a very good – if not top class animal – and he performed particularly well, last time out..I suspect this 2m4f trip is now his optimum and sneaking in off bottom weight, I can see him running a massive race.
Hand on heart, I think something (probably Noble Prince) will have too much class for him. However at 20/1 (5/1 a place) he just has to be the EW selection.

Selection: Mahogany Blaze 20/1 (EW)

So there it is: a thoroughly absorbing days racing awaits.

Let’s hope that the racing turned out to as good as it looks – and the selections perform to the level expected.

If that is the case, you won’t be getting any grumbles from me !!
TVB.