Daily write-up - Feb 9th

A tremendous days action lies ahead, with meetings from Newbury, Warwick and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

Whilst there will be some serious equine talent racing in the UK, it is matched - if not surpassed - by that on show in Ireland.

With 4 grade 1 races, Leopardstown put on the meeting of the day – though I’ve chosen not to tip there…

It is however, very much, a meeting to watch with a view to Cheltenham 

The same can also be said for the meetings at Warwick and Newbury…

We’ve reached that time in the season where many horses are having their final run before the festival – you need to have your eyes peeled and your wits about you !!

Whilst I may not have chosen to tip at Leopardstown today, I have not fought shy of tipping in general !

In fact, I dare say a few of you were left reeling in shock, as tip after tip arrived in your mailbox this morning !

I appreciate that there are a lot of tips – but simply, the racing is there to tip in – so what should I do ?!

That said, as is so often the case on a Saturday, I don’t feel there are any ‘good things’ running today.

Instead, what I hope I have given you, is 8 horses, who all have a chance of wining and who are all priced up higher than they should be…

My inclination is to look at the 8 tips as a collective group.

We’ve staked just over 3 points on a basket of horses – and if any one of them wins, we are unlikely to lose on the day.

If more than one wins – then we will all be smiling…

Anyway, enough of this pre-amble – I’ve got some tip rationale to provide…

Starting at Newbury:

1:50

This is a highly competitive handicap – and my initial feeling when I saw it was to steer clear !

However, on closer examination of the odds, I think there are a couple of horses, who have real chances, that have been priced up at insulting odds: namely American Spin and Arkose.

As you may recall, I was pretty keen on American Spin, the last time he ran – at Haydock back in November…

He ran disappointingly that day – but his lengthy absence since makes me think there must have been a problem…

He was a 10/1 shot that day, for a very similar race – and today he gets to run off a 1lb lower mark and has the assistance of 3lb claimer Joshua Moore in the saddle.

The case for him today is the same as it was that day: I think he is a progressive horse, who will be well suited by today’s test of 3 miles in soft ground.

Whether he is up to wining probably depends on whether he is cherry ripe for today – but if he is, and provided whatever was troubling him has been resolved – he will go close…

The other one I want on side at a big price, is Arkose…

He has been a bit of a revelation this year, winning twice and then running a very creditable fourth last time at Sandown.

That was over a trip probably a little short of his best – so back over 3 mile today, I can see him also running a very big race…

As I have intimated, there is a slight danger with all of the runners in today’s race, that they are being run with half an eye on Cheltenham (probably the Pertemps final).

However if we ignore that possibility and just take things at face value, then I think both American Spin and Arkose have much better chances today, than their odds imply…

0.25pt win American Spin 25/1

0.25pt win Arkose 25/1

2:25

I dare say a few of you expected me to tip The Giant Bolster today – and you were right !

However, when I looked at the race last night, I tried to be objective in my assessment…

Obviously Silviano Conti is the most likely winner – but is he really a 4/5 shot to TGBs 7/1 ? I don’t think so…

Back in November, they met in the Betfair chase at Haydock…

Silviano came out of top that day – but he jumped like a dream throughout, whereas, TGB hit a few…

Obviously the same thing might happen today (and probably will !) – but if it doesn’t…

Secondly, the horses met on level weights that day – today Silviano has to give TGB 4lb…

And thirdly, that was TGBs seasonal debut – whereas Silviano was already match fit…

Ultimately, Silviano proved the better by 7 lengths – but would you really be confident that he places were going to be confirmed today – bearing in mind the 3 points above ? I wouldn’t…

In fact, purely on the weight turnaround, things should be pretty close – so if you factor in the fitness aspect and the jumping, then you have to come to the conclusion the TGB is overpriced today…

In my mind, he is a 4 or 5/1 shot – so 7/1 has to be value.
It is as simple as that really !!

0.5pt win The Giant Bolster 7/1

3:35

The Betfair Hurdle (or Tote Gold Trophy, to us old-timers), is another race that I planned to leave alone today…

However, when you see a former Champion hurdler running off a mark of 145 (20lb lower than when at his prime), it is difficult not to take some interest.

When the horse in question, is also trained by Nicky Henderson – a man with an enviable record in this race – and it is available at 20/1+, I think you have to take action !!

Of course, Punjabi is now a 10 year old and had been of the track for a couple of years prior to his comeback in the Christmas hurdle – so a lot has to be taken on trust.
But simply, if he is back to anything close to the level of form he was capable of showing in his prime, he won’t just win this – he will hack up !

If that’s not the case, then I don’t have a particularly strong view on the race – like I said, my initial feeling was to leave it alone !!

0.25pt win Punjabi 25/1

Next, over to Warwick…

1:30

I was initially drawn to this race, by the presence of Kaffie…

She caught my eye first time out this season, when running a massive race at Kempton, behind Knockfierna.

I expected her to build on that next time out, also at Kempton – but she seemed to go backwards and was well beaten behind Tweedledrum.
I feel she now has a lot to prove – and whilst I wouldn’t completely rule out her bouncing back to form today, I can’t bring myself to tip her…

Swincombe Flame was one of Kaffies opponent on her most recent run – and she takes her on again today.

She was very decent over hurdles last season and tried her hand at chasing for her first 2 starts this season.
However that didn’t work out as planned and she was sent back over hurdle for her run at Kempton.
She really seemed to relish the return to the smaller obstacles, and was running all over Kaffie down the back straight at Kempton. As that one weakened, she pressed on – but her stamina gave out over the final two obstacles and Tweedledrum proved her superior…

Swincombe Flame has been dropped back in trip by just over half a mile today  - and I think that can prove to be a wise move.
It can be argued that her very best form was over a little further - but the pace she showed at Kempton, suggests that today’s trip won’t be an issue.

The are plenty of potential dangers in what looks like a trappy contest - but I think Swincombe Flame sets a good standard and she should prove hard to beat.

0.5pt win Swincombe Flame 11/2

2:05

This is a race that I spent quite a lot of time on – as it is the kind of race, I like to unravel…

However, after tossing it around a few times, I came to the conclusion, that nothing was capable of winning it !

Of course, that is silly, because something will, and the most solid option is probably Drumshmabo.

However, he is up massively in the handicap from the start of the season – and he it  doesn’t strike me that he has much more improvement in him.

I will be a little disappointed if he does prove good enough – certainly, the standard he sets should be surpassable…

Molotof may be the one that surpasses it – but again, he doesn’t totally convince me.

His jumping is a little suspect – and he is high enough in the weights for what he has achieved…

Which brings me on to the selection, Hey Big Spender…

I am a massive fan of this horse –and these can be little doubt that he is handicapped to win this race – if he is physically right…

And that is the big concern…

Hey Big Spender has run really disappointingly this season - and it has looked as if he is experiencing some kind of physical problem.

He travelled really well to the top of the hill, in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham, a couple of weeks ago – and then stopped as if shot…

That tends to be the sign of a breathing problem - and low and behold, a tongue tie is applied for the first time today…

As I’ve said before (With Sophonie, if memory serves !), the application of a tongue tie can be viewed as both a good thing and a bad thing.

The positive slant is that it suggests a problem may have been identified and cured – the negative slant is that there is a problem !!

On balance, however, I am prepared to take the risk…
As I‘ve said, the race shouldn’t take that much winning – and a peak for Hey Big Spender would almost certainly be capable of wining it.

Lets hope that’s what we get to see this afternoon…

0.5pt win Hey Big Spender 9/1

And now Uttoxeter…

3:25

Radmores Revenge is a horse I’ve been watching closely this season - and he has been running a lot better than his form figures suggest !!

First time out, he was staying on nicely at Chepstow, when he fell at the third last hurdle.

Next time at Haydock, he moved nicely at the back of the field, before failing to quicken as expected.

Last time, back at Chepstow, he stayed on well without quite managing to get to the leaders…

As a result of these 3 runs, he has dropped 5lb on the handicap, to a mark from which he went very close at Ayr, last April…

To add to this, a 10lb claimer has been booked to ride today – this will effectively take his weight down to a level where we know he is capable of winning.

Radmores Revenge also gets to run today, over his optimum trip, on his preferred ground, and in a class 4 race (he has been contesting higher class races recently) – in short, he has a lot going for him…

The biggest issue today, is the opposition !

It would have been nice to see him running in a race with a few less potential improvers – but alas, you can’t have everything.
The things is, most of his main opponents have question marks against them – Radmores Revenge doesn’t…

It could be argued that he should really have been an EW selection – so I hope that is something I don’t live to rue.
Whatever, I think he is a good bet – and hopefully non of his opponents will show the required improvement to beat him.

0.5pt win Radmores Revenge 14/1

4:35

Captain Paulie is a horse I’ve been looking out for – and he gets to run today in a race that doesn’t look particularly strong…

For a start, I am happy enough to take on the 2 favourites: if Ballywatt wins, I suspect it will have to be hard held, because I really don’t think he finds that much off the bridle; whilst Greywell Boy looks a short price for a horse with limited form…

In truth, the form of Captain Paulie doesn’t stand up top the closest scrutiny – but I think he is yet to fully show his hand.
Whether that happens today, remains to be seen – but I think it will happen sooner rather than later and at 9/1 in a 7 horse race, where I can see reason s to take on the market principals, I think he is worth a risk…

Captain Paulie has been dropped 1lb in the handicap since he first made his British debut, just over 12 months ago…

Generally speaking that drop has been warranted, but there have been occasions when he has shown a glimmer of what he is capable.

One such instance was on his penultimate run in a hot handicap chase at Newbury in November…

Captain Paulie was moving with real menace round the home turn that day, before failing to get home over an extra half mile…

In fact, I think that was such an eye caching run, connections have deliberately kept a low profile since !

He was declare to run at Warwick early in December, but halved in price the night before and was pulled put the following morning !

He has subsequently run modestly over hurdles – and that seems to have cause people to forget about him..

I am hoping that will prove to be a mistake !

0.5pt win Captain Paulie 9/1

Just a few words on the excellent Leopardstown card.

As I said the introduction, very much racing to watch rather than racing to bet in – but I obviously have views on a few of the races !!

In the opener, Ruacana looks over priced at around 9/1, to take the prize for England.

Bright New Dawn could be very interesting in the novice hurdle at 2:15 – provided Davy can get him to settle…

Texas Jack could represent a bit of value against Boston Bob in the novice chase at 2:45; whilst I’ll be hoping that Sir Des Champs can wear down Flemenstar in the Hennessey Gold cup.

Discoteca looks interesting in the handicap hurdle - and will hopefully cap a great day for Davy and Gigginstown.

Whilst the Hunter Chase is as good a race of its type as you will see outside the festival. Goonyella is the one that will be carrying my cash !!

Here’s to a great day ahead – ideally, with a little bit of luck on the side ;)

TVB.