I honestly can’t remember the last mid week day, when there were 4 NH meetings – a rare treat indeed.
Furthermore, 2 of the cards: Doncaster and Huntingdon, are good quality. And whilst I didn’t find the Taunton and Clonmel cards quite so interesting – maybe that was because I was spoilt for choice !!
I’ve tipped in 4 races today – which is a lot for a mid-week.
Obviously, it is with a certain amount of trepidation, as I am currently in the worse run of form this season.
However, the only way I’ll get out of it, is by tipping a few winners – so I’ve got to stick to my guns and hope for the best !!
I think 2 of todays selections are very solid – and I would expect a big run from them both.
The other 3 are a little more speculative, but hopefully at least one of them will justify me taking the risk…
Wish me luck !
Anyway, without further ado, the rationale for today’s tips – plus a few thoughts on some of the other races.
Starting at Doncaster…
3:35
This is a really competitive race and I’ve gone for Handtheprizeover to recapture his form…
On his penultimate outing, he won a near identical race to this, over the same course and distance.
Always travelling well, he kicked on in the home straight and withstood the late challenge of Fill the Power.
He was raised 8lb for that win, but was still made favourite for a class 2 chase at Kempton early in January.
However, Handtheprizeover ran no sort of a race that day and was pulled up.
How you view his chances today, depend on how you view his last run…
If you feel that it showed the handicapper has caught up with him, then you won’t fancy him today. However, if you view it as too bad to be true, then he is of definite interest…
For a start, we know that trip, track and ground are perfect. We also know that he goes very well for 7lb claimer, Killian Moore, who is back on board today after missing the Kempton ride.
Handtheprizeover had looked a very progressive horse until his last run – and I am hopeful that he will be able to pick up his progressive thread today…
If he doesn’t then it looks a wide-open race…
Hunters Lodge and Relax have both got very good claims, whilst Craftie Bookie catches my eye at a price.
I could also see Bounds and Leaps running very well – and struggle to understand why she is a 20/1 shot. She runs his best races when fresh – which is exactly what she will be today !
0.5pt win Handtheprizeover 12/1
4:35
One of the things I’m always trying to do, is find strong form lines…
You may recall from November/December when I latched on to the Queens Grove/Tweedledrum/Fulgora form line, that rewarded us so well during that period…
Well, I’m hopeful that I’ve latched on to another strong form line – and today will be the day that it delivers…!
Last time out, I tipped Jack the Gent at Leicester and he ran a perfectly respectable race to finish fourth.
When I was reviewing that race, the following weekend, I came to the conclusion that the form might be very strong…
My initial reason for thinking that was based around the third horse in the race, Rouge et Blanc – but more on him later…
The first 2 horses in the race were Arthurs Pass and Prince of Dream – and low and behold, both horses have subsequently come out and won (and off higher marks than they raced off that day).
This gives a little substance to my hunch !
Of all the runners in that race, Jack the Gent is possibly the one with the most scope for improvement…
He acquired a rating of 125 over hurdles – but always looked as if he would make a better chaser…
He was off the tack for 18 months after his novice season over hurdles and only made his comeback at Doncaster last November.
Each of his runs over fences has seen a little improvement and I think he should be at his peak today.
I would prefer it if he were running over an extra half mile – though that said, he doesn’t lack pace so, provided he is given a positive ride it shouldn’t be an issue.
He has performed well at Doncaster in the past, so the course should suit him fine.
I wouldn’t want to see Qoubilia taking him on for the lead – but provided that doesn’t happen I think he will run a very big race indeed !
0.75pt win Jack the Gent 9/1
Earlier on the card, the clash between Close Touch and African Gold will be well worth watching with a view to the festival.
Though I honestly wouldn’t have a strong view on which one will come out on top…
I was half interested in Triangular at price in the 2:30 race – though I feel you would have needed to see a bit more last time.
Keep an eye on him though, if he does recapture some form, he is very well handicapped.
In the handicap hurdle at 3:05, I will offer you two against the field, in Hada Men and Greenlaw.
However, I don’t feel sufficiently strongly about either, to make them a tip…
Over to Huntingdon then…
2:05
As I mentioned in my preview of Jack the Gent’s race, the reason I latched on to him, was because of his proximity to Rouge et Blanc in the Leicester race…
That was Rouge et Blanc’s most recent outing – and superficially, it appeared disappointing.
However, time may show that he was tackling a couple of well handicapped horses in Arthurs Pass and Prince of Dreams – and if that was the case, then perhaps his run was too bad after all…
Certainly, Rouge et Blanc’s two runs prior to Leicester, were very good indeed…
In the first of them he got within 2 lengths of the revitalised Eastlake. That one has subsequently followed up off a stone higher mark, suggesting that Rouge et Blanc ran very well that day.
Similarly next time out, he got with 4 lengths of Rody. He is now handicapped 23lb higher than he was that day !
In short, Rouge et Blanc has had the misfortune to come up against some seriously well handicapped rivals in his last 3 runs…
Ofcourse, there is the chance that the same might happen again today !
Special Robon and Croco Mister both look like potential improvers.
However, in the shape of Rouge et Blanc, they are taking on a horse who I think is at least 10lb better than his current handicap mark – so they will need to have a fair bit in hand if they are going to beat him !
Today’s 2m4f trip is a slight concern with Rouge et Blanc – and I hope connections haven’t chosen to increase the distance because they feel his limitations have been reached over the minimum trip.
However, assuming he does get home OK – and Huntingdon is a sharp track – then I think he will take the world of beating today.
0.5pt win Rouge et Blanc 4/1
2:40
I’ve taken a bit of a flyer with a couple of horses in this race, who both caught my eye when I was studying the form last night…
In all probability they won’t be good enough today – but I do think both have angles that make them potentially very interesting – and at the prices on offer, I felt they were worth a small play…
Five Rivers is probably the easiest one to understand.
Last time out, he was in the process of running a very good race at Kempton, when he fell at the second last fence.
He wouldn’t have won that day, but he would likely have been placed and that race looked better quality than todays…
It was a big improvement in form from Five Rivers – and it is interesting to note that it coincided with the re-application of cheek pieces (he had won in pieces over hurdles the previous season). They are retained today, which is a good thing – and if he can build on the promise he showed at Kempton, he should run well today…
Uno D’Estruval is a more speculative choice – but I saw something in his last run at Leicester and he is sufficiently unexposed to be able to leave that form behind today.
In fact his Leicester run was his first run in this country, having previously raced in France.
He travailed really well to the second last fence that day, but then didn’t get home…
If it was fitness that caused him to fade that day, then I could see him running a very big race today.
However, if it was lack of stamina, then he is likely to get caught out again today, over the same trip.
Stamina is also a concern for Five Rivers – and that is the main reason that I staked both horses at a minimum level.
However, as I said in my preview of the previous race, Huntingdon is a sharp course – and the going today shouldn’t be too taxing, so there is reasonable cause for optimism over their chance of staying today trip.
If they do, then I think both are capable of running very big races.
0.25pt win Fiver River 14/1
0.25pt win Uno D’estruval 20/1
In the opener on the card, I could well see Virginia Ash following up his victory at Plumpton, when I tipped him…
However, he has 16 rivals to beat today – and is 7lb higher in the weights.
There is not a lot of margin in a price of 9/2…
The juvenile hurdle at 3:15 looks a real cracker – and the money for Zamdy Man, plus the presence of Aidan Colemen in the saddle (he could have ridden some well fancied horses at Doncaster) looks significant…
At a price, keep an eye on Bold Cuffs, I think he could outrun his odds…
Aidan Coleman also has a potentially interesting ride in the 3:45 race, in the shape of Art Professor.
I would offer you that one – plus Romeo America – against the field.
However, keep a close eye on Hayjack. Money for him would be significant…
Finally, at Taunton, a quick mention for Midnight Belle in the handicap hurdle at 3:25.
She was an impressive winner at Ludlow last week and could well shrug off a 7lb penalty and extra half mile trip, and follow up again…
A very busy day then ! And hopefully one when I can get things back on track…
I’ll certainly be keeping my fingers crossed on that score !
TVB.
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