Daily write-up - Feb 17th

NH meetings today at Ffos Las and Market Rasen…

The lack of an Irish meeting was a very unpleasant shock for me !

There was a decent meeting scheduled for Navan – but it has now been moved to Tuesday (presumably because the course is currently unraceable).

Initially, I wasn’t optimistic that I would have much for today – but as is so often the case, when I started looking properly, I found a few !

Alas they are not the most inspiring set of tips I have ever produced – but I guess if I can find a couple of winners, nobody will be moaning too much.

Obviously, it is nice to find big priced winners – but as we were reminded again yesterday, when 11 out of the 14 winners at the 2 meetings I studied returned at less than 5/1, finding decent priced winners is getting harder and harder…

It would seem, that you need to adapt or sink. I am therefore adapting a little ;)

Anyway, enough of the rambling and on to the rationale for today’s tips – starting at Ffos Las…

3:20

I really am rather keen on Buffalo Bob today…

As many of you will be aware, he is a horse close to my heart. I tipped him EW, to maximum stakes, twice last season – and he didn’t let me down on either occasion…

I hope that today he can provide me with a hatrick of successful tips !

I do feel that the case for him today, is quite compelling…

After 3 disappointing runs so far this season, he has dropped to a mark 2lb below his last success. That was last March, when he beat Plein Pouvoir over 2m4f in the mud at Chepstow – so not a bad performance really !

He has not run well since that point – but all his races have been over further, and Buffalo Bob is at his best when ridden aggressively over the shorter trip.

The heavy ground today, will doubtless be a problem for some – but it won’t be an issue for Bob. As well as his victory at Chepstow, he also ran with enormous credit in the mud at Aintree last season.

All of these factors mean that Buffalo Bob has a good chance today – but there is one additional factor which I believe means he has an excellent chance: the refitting of cheek pieces…

A visor was applied to Bob for the first time last February and it resulted in (an admittedly fortunate) victory…

Two starts later, cheek pieces were applied for the first time in the Chepstow race against Plein Pouvoir and the result was the same…

The thing about these old boys, is that they get a bit jaded. Buffalo Bob will be having his 35^th outing under rules today –and I suspect he is getting a bit blasé about it all..

He has run without his customary verve this so far this season – but I suspect we will see a totally different horse this afternoon.

Certainly connections have been canny. They have allowed his handicap mark to drop to a level where they know he can win – and now they have taken action.

I honestly believe that today is the day for Buffalo Bob – and that at this level, in these conditions, he is going to prove a very tough adversary for all of his rivals.

0.75pt win Buffalo Bob 9/2

3:50

Miss Kalifa came to my attention, when she ran over fences, behind Valmari, last time out…

Those of you who recall the race (Valmari was a TVB tip that day), might recall that Valmari was hassled for the lead for most of the race by Miss Kalifa.

Miss Kalifa was a 40/1 shot that day – which wasn’t too surprising considering she was rated 20lb inferior to Valmari but she produced a tremendous performance, putting it up to the eventual winner right until the second last fence.

She ultimately paid the penalty for her efforts and weakened to finish fifth – but it was still an admirable performance.

Based purely on that run, Miss Kalifa is of significant interest in this race, off a mark of 107. However, there are other pieces of form – over hurdles from last season – which also make her look like a good bet…

It is of particular interest, that her best 2 runs over hurdles were both recorded at this track, over a 3 mile trip. For a start, that alleviates any concerns over her coping with the 2m6f trip today – even in the heavy ground.

The second of her course runs last season is particularly noteworthy.

In that race, she finished second to Makethe Mostofnow. She was receiving almost a stone from the winner that day – and was beaten 9 lengths. However, he is now rated 139 over hurdles – and there was 16 lengths back to the 126 rated African Broadway.

The latter was also giving Miss Kalifa significant weight – but even so, it suggests that she is capable of performing to a mark of around 115 – and will act over the course and distance…

The heavy ground is a slight concern – but she has run very creditably on soft, so it is reasonable to hope that she will handle it.

I would expect Miss Kalifa to race prominently – possibly even lead, as she tried to at Ludlow.

If he does adopt those tactics, then Jamie Moore will have to get the pace right. However, his confidence should be on a high following his exploits yesterday, so hopefully he will be up to the job. Provided he is, I would be optimsitic that Miss Kalifa won’t let us down.

0.5pt win Miss Kalifa 11/2

Over to Market Rasen, then…

3:00

I felt a had to add an explanatory note to the tips in this race, in case you all thought I was losing my marbles !

I mentioned earlier in the week, that I planned to tip 2 short priced horses in a race at Leicester prior to it’s abandonment. Well, I’ve done it today !!

Hopefully, you are all comfortable with the logic behind my actions.

Simply, I think this is a 2 horse race – and whilst the value is with Sawpit Supreme, I want to cover the stake with a saver on Classical Mist.

Sawpit Supreme’s last run was behind Arthurs Pass.

We know that is good form. Arthurs Pass is the horse who won the race contested by Rouge et Blanc and Jack the Gent, at Leicester.

Sawpits Supreme gave Arthurs Pass a real race in his subsequent outing, travelling better than him early in the straight and only giving best after the last fence.

She has been raised a pound for that run – but I don’t think that will be an issue.
Simply, she is a mare in good form, who the handicapper has currently underestimated. She must go close today…

However, despite there only being 4 other runners in the race, I think there is a horse in it who is capable of testing her…

Classical Mist was a comfortable winner on her seasonal debut at Catterick in December and followed that up by running really well against the very progressive Brave Spartacus, next time out.
She was no match for the winner that day – but there was no disgrace in that. She also finished a long way clear of the third horse – and yet gets to run off the same mark today.
In fact, she is now on a mark only 2lb higher than the one that she started the season on. The handicapper seems to have missed her !

Of the other 3, I am happy enough to take on Groomed and Kayfton Pete, making William money the most likely one to mess things up.

I guess that’s not surprising, as he is favourite - but I really don’t think he has the best chance in the race.

If forced to get off the fence, I would slight favour Classical Mist. However I think there is very little between the pair and at the bigger odds, Sawpit Supreme is the better bet.
As for those of you who are temped by the forecast – there would be worse calls !!

0.5pt win Sawpit Supreme 4/1

0.25pt win Classical Mist 11/4

In the 4:30 race on the card, I was very interested by top weight Ballymurry

Those of you with exceptional memories will recall that I mentioned him as noteworthy, when he ran his second race over hurdles at Chepstow, early in January…

He ran well that day - but looked every inch a future chaser.
Sure enough, next time out, he was pitched into a very hot novice chase at Doncaster.

Not surprisingly, he came up short for that event – but it got him a handicap mark…

Today should be the day we are really interested in him – his first handicap chase.

However, his mark of 99 looks a bit harsh to me – and his price of 5/1 a bit skinny…

In truth, I have absolutely no idea how the handicapper arrived at his rating – I certainly couldn’t have come up with a number.

I just wonder if connections might think it a little harsh as well. I am sure he will ultimately be up to wining off such a mark – but I am not sure it will be today…

A poor run this afternoon, could easily see 10lb off his mark – and then they may be prepared to go to war with him

Whatever, I will be watching with interest…

Here’s to a good day ahead.

TVB.