Daily write-up - Feb 11th

Only Catterick survives today – the meeting at Plumpton having been abandoned this morning…

It may seem a little strange to just be issuing a single 0.25pt bet on the day – and I guess it is !

However, my original plan was to have a much bigger bet at Plumpton – with this one just a secondary bet.
With the cancellation of Plumpton, I had the option of abandoning this bet as well – but I think we all know how sods law would have dealt with that !!

Anyway, I’ll keep the rationale for the bet short – I don’t want to be writing reams on the reasons for investing a quarter of a point on a 20/1 shot (though you all know I could ;)  ).

4:10

There are some very progressive horses in opposition here – and it certainly looks like a strong race for the grade (and track).

However, there is something quite striking about the main protagonists in the race – they like to front run…

Brave Spartacus has been a revelation in his last 4 races: bossing them form the front and registering 3 wins and an unlucky fall.

However, he has been raised 43lbs for those victories – the handicapper will catch him sooner rather than later…

Shangani was successful on his last outing – when adopting front running tactics…

It saw a big improvement in his performance and consequently I would expect connections to want to adopt the same tactic today – that is going to be tricky for them to achieve…

Arctic Ben is used to performing in better class races than this. He won very impressively a Warwick and Haydock last season – but on both occasions, he made all.

He’s not been able to dictate in the same way in his races this season – and he’s not been as successful as a consequence. I feel that might be the situation again today…

With pace concerns over 3 of the first 4 in the betting, the race obviously begins to look a little more interesting…

Ofcourse the one who may benefit most from a pace war, is third favourite, Lease Lend.

He travels very nicely in his races – and the race might well be set up for him. However, he doesn’t look to have much in hand of his current handicap mark…

The same could be said of French Ties – though he did win off a mark a just a pound lower than he runs off today, 3 runs ago.

That was at Bangor, when he recorded a victory in most bizarre circumstances (looking as if he might run out – and almost be carried out).

Certainly French Tie is a character – and if he does look likely to win, I would advise against counting your winnings until he has actually crossed the line !
However, he is also a talent - and he is capable off winning a race such as this, off his current mark.

His stable form is a worry: Jenny Candlish is high on the cold trainers list. However, her Barafundle ran very well at Newbury on Saturday, so hopefully this won’t be an issue.

French Ties made a very pleasing comeback in the Cheltenham race won by Plein Pouvoir in December.

The desperately soft ground would not have been to his liking that day – but he still travelled well until tiring on the run to the second last.
He will be better suited by today quicker ground. He will also be well suited by the trip and course – and the likely frantic pace should be ideal.

In short, he has a lot going for him – particularly when you consider the price on offer !!

0.25pt win French Ties 20/1

Here’s hoping for a good afternoon ahead !

TVB.