Race review

Top Dancer, the main line tip for the day, ran a really good race at Chepstow, to finish fourth.

He was well backed, from the advised 14/1 down to his SP of 6/1 (which was about the price I thought he should have been).

In the race itself, he travelled very smoothly and jumped economically.

Turning for home, he looked the most likely winner and on the run to the second last, he touched 1.4 on Betfair.

However, that was as good as it got, as he just couldn’t find the required reserves to go with the first two on the run to the last.

It looked as if his stamina gave out – but I suspect it was simply the holding ground.

Back on a better surface, he would be of interest, in a similar race. However he might need a few weeks to recover from today’s exertions…

In the following race, Sophonie, (the early bird tip that never was !) was a bitter disappointment…

In truth, I was getting a little concerned when I saw the pre-race drift. A Betfair SP of almost 5/2 seemed to tell the tale for a horse I felt should have been priced up close to even money.

She ran a bit too freely in the race itself and when put under pressure up the home straight, found virtually nothing.

My guess is that she was still feeling the effects of her last outing – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her given a good few weeks break before her next outing.

I’m sure that she has the ability to win a race, such as today’s, off her current mark.

Hopefully connections will get her back into a state where she can demonstrate that.

In the penultimate race on the card, Royal Mile also produced a most disappointing effort to finish well beaten. I guess it goes to show that they are not machines…

Over at Warwick, Hazy Tom managed to hold off the sustained challenge of Cantlow.

The 2 mile trip certainly favoured the former more and Cantlow lost little in defeat.

He will be a different proposition next time out, over a more suitable trip.

Finally, Aladdins Cave was very well backed at Fairyhouse. In from the early 6/1 to an SP of 3/1.

He didn’t look likely to win at various points in the race, but where it mattered, he got his nose in front, for what was ultimately quite a cosy win.

There could be more to come from him…

So that concludes the first week of the 2012-13 TVB season.

They say that a week is along time in politics  (and I suspect Barack Obama and Mitt Romney would agree) – but I can assure you that a week is an equally long time in the world of tipping !

From Monastrell to Sophonie, via Loch Ba and Richards Sundance. There have already been quite a few ups and downs – and the journey has barely begun !

I hope you are all well strapped in !!

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 7th

There are 2 domestic NH meetings today, at Chepstow and Warwick – with a further meeting over the jumps at Fairyhouse in Ireland.

Before I get onto previewing today’s racing, just a few more words on the ‘tweaks’ to the service, which I announced yesterday…

Obviously, it is still very early days for the service, so it is kind of inevitable that some minor changes will need to be made as it beds in.

My sole aim, is to provide you guys with quality information – and quality tips – which will make your betting experience more enjoyable and profitable.

If I come across something that is preventing me from doing that, I will act to remove it immediately – and that is basically what I did with yesterdays changes.

I’ve had some feedback to the changes – which is very much appreciated –and it has been very positive.

I think you can all see where I am coming from and the feeling seems to be that the changes will be for the better.

Just to recap then, TVB will effectively be a 3 faceted service consisting of:

- Early-bird tips

- Race previews

- Main-line tips

The ‘early bird’ tips will be opportunistic tips, released as soon as bookmakers price up races.

They will be focusing on weak, immature markets  - and will not be suitable for everyone (due to bookmaker restrictions).

I would expect the majority of these tips to be issued before 6:00 in the evening, Sunday through to Thursday.

The race previews, are the daily write-ups which cover in some detail, various races to be run that day. What I will try and do with these, is high-light over-priced horses and angles on races, that might have been generally missed.
I would see the main value of the write-ups (apart from general interest) to be for people who like to back and lay horses on Betfair (for example, Rubert yesterday could have been back at 30+ on BF – and touched 6 IR, before his stamina gave out)

The ‘main line’ tips, will be the core of the service. These will be conventional tips, in strong, mature markets, where everyone should be able to get the recommended price (or close to it).

The majority of main line tips (over 90%), will be in the better class races (class 3 and above). Some of these tips will be issued the night before: some in the morning (I will retain the evening and morning tipping ‘windows’ for these tips).

It is the ‘main line’ tips, that the service will be judged on (from the outside, at least).

So there you have, one week in and we already have a new improved TVB service !

TVB really is a service that no serious punter should operate without ;)     

So, onto today’s action, where there is both a mainline tip – and an early bird tip – and views on a few other races !!

Starting with the mainline tip:

Chepstow 2:00

Firstly apologies for leading you up the garden path last night by saying there would be no mainline tip today !

However, when I woke this morning and saw that Top Dancer had drifted from 8/1 last night, to 12/1 this morning (14/1 in a place) I figured he was worth a small play.

The case for Top Dancer today, is based solely around ‘value’…

He doesn’t have a particular edge that others might have missed – he just has a fair chance of winning an open looking race.

Pocket Too is definitely the stand out contender in the race – but at 2/1, he looks a little short to me.

It is also possible to make cases for the likes of Cresswell Crusader, Kellystown Lad and Old Way, based primarily on them showing improvement for various reasons.

However, Top Dancer looks a solid option. He has only run 5 times over hurdles in this country and seems to be a gradual improver.

His best run last season, was his final outing of the campaign, when he finished third in a competitive 17 runner handicap hurdle at Aintree.

He ran reasonably well on his seasonal debut – also at Aintree – 11 days ago – where he was still in contention entering the home straight, until lack of condition appeared to find him out.

I think it reasonable to assume he will come on for that run and be a much more potent force today.

My main concern with him, is the ground. He is unproven on heavy (never mind Chepstow heavy !), and as a consequence, I feel win only is the way to go (in case he bombs completely on the going).

In my tissue last night, I had him around a 7/1 shot – so at double that price this morning – even with potential improvers in the race – he warrants a small play.

Main Line - 0.5pt win Top Dancer 14/1

Chepstow 2:30

I’ve been waiting for Sophonie to run…!!

As followers from last year will know, I latched on to the mare early last season.

At the time, she was in the care of Ferdy Murphy and she ran well on a number of occasions – including when registering a victory at Uttoxeter.

The key to Sophonie, is 2 miles and heavy ground – which is precisely what she gets today.

Now with Tom George, she actually made her seasonal debut a fortnight ago. That was over 2m4f at Exeter on good to soft ground. Despite not facing ideal conditionss, Sophonie was still backed into 2/1 favourite in a quite a competitive 9 horse race – suggesting that connections felt that had a well handicapped horse (which I believe they do !).

She cantered into the lead round the home turn that day, looking sure to oblige (trading at 1.18 IR !) – but then emptied up the run in.

Assuming that run has brought her on (and not sent her back) and that her jumping holds up, then she really will take the world of beating today in a race that doesn’t look as strong at the Exeter one..

Early Bird – 3pt win Sophonie 2/1

In the 3:40 race, I think Royal Mile will take some beating – and his price of even money actually looks on the generous side to me !!

Over at Warwick, the clash between Cantlow and Hazy Tom in the novice chase, will very much be worth seeing.

Provided he is tuned up, Cantlow would make some appeal at a price of 5/2.

Finally, at Fairyhouse, Aladdins Cave looks interesting in the handicap hurdle at 1:40.

He has had a couple of recent runs on the flat, which should have blown away the cobwebs.

His price of 6/1 isn’t overly generous – but it does look quite fair…

Here’s hoping for a decent day !

TVB.

  

Race review

Well if I was frustrated yesterday evening, it was nothing to how I felt around 4:00 this afternoon…!

Moments earlier, I had watched Richards Sundance battle his way to victory at Exeter.

All credit it to him – he put up a thoroughly game performance. Like I said in my write up this morning, he had ground and trip to suit – and was well handicapped.

However, I’m still not convinced he warranted being a 4/1 shot…

Anyway, the whole episode – and that of Loch Ba yesterday, has set me thinking…

I can’t call myself ‘thevaluebettor’ and then advise taking 2/1 on a horse that was 4/1 the night before – or indeed 4/1 on one that was 10/1.

However, if I’m not prepared to do that, we will miss these winners – unless, I swerve these kind of races from a betting perspective (which is in effect, what I did today).

It was always my intention to focus on the better class racing for this service – and these recent examples seem to suggest that I need to do just that, if I am to avoid this kind of frustration.

So what I plan to do, is effectively split the service in half.

I will continue to tip in the bigger races (with their stronger markets) – on occasions this will happen the night before. More than half of these bets will be for races on a Saturday – because that is when the higher quality racing takes place.
This will be the 'mainline ' TVB service.

However, I will also effectively resurrect the ‘early-bird’ service, where anything goes ! This will be for the smaller midweek races, where only 2 or 3 bookmakers price up a race. I appreciate that not every one can/will want to get on these selections, which is why I feel the need to separate them out.

Obviously, I could opt to not send them out at all (as with Richards Sundance) but then non of us will benefit from the price ricks.

I will allow the TVB service to be judged purely on the ‘mainline’ bets (as these are the ones that everyone should be able to get on) – but I’ll also keep a P&L for the earlybird selections.

Early-bird tips will generally arrive early evening (sometime very early evening !) – and I will clearly mark them as early bird tips.

In addition, I will still provide my thoughts on daily basis, on other races where I have a view (but don’t recommend an official bet).

Hopefully this will work for all, as I can’t really see a downside. However, if you have any concerns – or don’t fully understand any aspect of the above, please feel free to get in touch…

With regard to todays tip Renard…

He – like the rest of the field – was comprehensively put in his place, by a majestic performance from Cue Card. Not everyone will approve of his head carriage – but there can be no doubting that he has an engine.

Single figure quotes for the King George don’t look like an over-reaction…

In the final race on the Exeter card, Pyleigh Lass ran a very creditable race but couldn’t quite reel in the favourite, Farmer Matt.

Over at Punchestown, all 4 of the horses I mentioned, ran with some credit.

However Leblon and Chasing Shadows couldn’t quite get to grips with the market leaders in the novice chase; whilst it was a very similar story for Rubert and Heavenly Brook.

Of the 4, Rubert who was the real eye-catcher – and I couldn’t help feeling that he would have taken some catching over 2 miles.

Maybe connections will choose to drop him back in trip next time –and maybe we’ll still get some sort of a price, as he eventually finished unplaced today.

I guess we’ll see in the fullness of time…

TVB.

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Daily write-up - Nov 6th

The Haldon Gold cup meeting at Exeter provides the only domestic NH racing of the day - though there is also a fair NH meeting at Punchestown, over in Ireland…

I have to admit to being a little frustrated yesterday evening…

As is my want, I started studying today’s Exeter card, not long after the overnight declarations were released, late yesterday morning.

I wasn’t overly taken by the card (it can sometimes be a real cracker) but there was a race that grabbed me, and that was the handicap chase, at 3:50.

Looking through the runners, it was pretty obvious that That‘lldoboy would be put in a short priced favourite – and one that I would be keen to oppose.

However, the one that most interested me, was Richard’s Sundance.

He has run well on seasonal debut in the past, should be suited by trip and ground – and is getting to be very well handicapped.

I didn’t see him as a certainty by any means – but I thought he could be potentially interesting…

Roll on 6 hours and the first of the bookmakers price up the race.

Ladbrokes were one of the first up – and they priced up Richards Sundance at 10/1. Now that was interesting ! Unfortunately, the price didn’t last long; neither did the 8/1 initial 8/1 quote from B365. And by the time the race had been priced up by 5 bookmakers, 6/1 was the best price available.

In truth, even that looks good now, as you’ll struggle to beat 4/1…!

4/1 represents no value in my book – 6/1 didn’t represent much either, so it was easy enough to pass on him at those prices.

However, 10/1 was good value – and he would have been a bet at that price.

So, how should I handle these situations ?

Sunday aside (which was exceptional circumstances), I’m tending to leave such horses alone – as that is what I effectively said I would do.

However, watching horses you fancy just shorten in front of your eyes, is very frustrating,

It’s not even as of the bookmakers act in a balanced way, be lengthening other horses in the same race. On Sunday evening, VC bet shortened 7 runners in a 10 horse race- without lengthening a single one !

I guess I’ll have to think through my options – but it does appear very difficult to get on a horse you fancy at a reasonable price – certainly the night before.

Anyway, on to today’s tip !

As I suggested above, I was initially a little disappointed by the field assembled for today’s Haldon Gold cup.

It’s not that it’s a particularly poor field in terms of quality – but 5 runners – and only 4 with realistic chances, is hardly going to set the pulse racing.

That said, the top 3 in the race are all potentially top class horses – but it is the other horse in the race with a chance, whom I’ve made the tip.

Renard was hugely progressive last season, starting the campaign with a rating of 109 and finishing it on a mark of 143 (and that despite a coupe of poor performances in his final 2 runs of the season).

He made his seasonal debut at Chepstow 10 days ago, and travelled through the race like the best horse in it. He looked set to win, taking up the running entering the home straight, but he then tried to take the third last fence with him – and was a spent force from that point.

If that outing has brought him on, I can see him running a very big race today.

Of his opponents, Cue Card and Menorah, in particular both have the potential to go to the top. However, neither has the benefit of an outing this season – and both are likely to be better over slightly longer trips.

It also easy enough to have reservations about the jumping of the pair – in short, they don’t look rock solid.

That is also the case for the other horse in the handicap proper, Edgardo Sol.

He looked brilliant at times last season (Aintree in particular) – but quite average on other occasions.

I would expect his to be close to peak fitness today – but his weakness in the market is concerning.

The final runner in the race, Webberys Dream, is 11lb wrong in the weights and whilst he is a useful sort, he shouldn’t be up to wining (or placing) today.

On balance therefore, I think it is worth a small play on Renard. With only 4 realistic contenders for 2 places – and with doubts about the other 3, he is worth chancing at the available odds.

He might not currently be viewed in the same class as the ‘big 3’, but they all have to give him over a stone in weight – plus race fitness. Furthermore, Renard is still only 7 years old himself and if he can maintain the progression he should last season a – and his debut run suggested that might well be the case – I can see him going close today.

0.5pt EW Renard 10/1

In the final race on the card, I was quite interested in Pyleigh Lass. However a best price of 5/1 in a competitive looking 11 runner race, makes limited appeal…

Over at Punchestown, Chasing Shadows and Leblon are of some interest against the market leaders in the mares beginners chase at 1:25.

They both have doubts against them – but they also both have a fair amount of ability.

Half an hour later, I did toy with another Irish tip, in Rubert…

He would have been a risky one mind, as he is far from guaranteed to stay the 2m4f trip.

However, I think that first time up is the time to catch him – and the application of blinkers is an interesting move.
If he doesn’t get home, then Heavenly Brook could be the one to take advantage…

Finally, I must tell you a tale from last night…

Just before I went to bed, I spent 5 minutes looking at the field for the Melbourne Cup.

I picked out a couple of runners at huge odds (almost 3 figures) and backed them win only on Betfair.

I was woken by the radio 4 sports report this morning – and the result of the Melbourne cup.

I could barely believe my ears – the horses I’d backed were Fiorente and Jakkalberry !!
You couldn’t make it up, could you ?!?!?!

TVB.

Race review

I’ve no idea why it should be, but generally, when TVB tips get beaten, it is invariably by the narrowest of margins – and when they win, they tend to hack up…

Fortunately today, Loch Ba fell into the latter category, coasting home by 20 lengths, unchallenged…

I’m not sure there is a lot I can actually say about the race.

The betting bordered on the ridiculous, with Loch Ba backed into 6/4 favourite – despite the fact that Fishoutofwater was also backed into an equally crazy 2/1.

With that one slow over the first and soon getting reminders, it really was simply a case of whether Loch Ba could jump around safely.

This he did, though he was a little sketchy at a few of his fences.

He will likely be raised stone or more for this success – but who is to say that will stop him following up ? He looks a horse of significant potential…

Firm Order ran a highly creditable race, he was the only one who ever looked remotely likely giving Loch Ba a contest. He will come on for today’s run and will be worth bearing in mind for his next outing.

I also wouldn’t give up on Fishoutofwater…

The money suggested that connections strongly fancied him and despite not jumping well or travelling that well, he was still in with a shout until the home turn. On softer ground, he could still turn out to be decent.

Earlier  in the afternoon, Hells Bay tried to give Ghizao a race – but without much success…

In fairness, Ghizao looked back close to his best – which was always going to set a high standard. If he can build on today’s run, Ghizao could be a force in graded races – though it is always a slight concern with a lot Nicholls’ horses, that they will regress after their first run back (Ghizao had undergone a breathing operation and the effects of it tend to wear off as the season progresses).

Anyway, it was certainly nice to get the first winner on the board. I’m aware that not everyone got the 4/1 advised, so I’ll settle at 3/1 for the P&L. I know not everyone managed to get that price either  – but it was the minimum stated and was available with 3 firms for an hour or so, after the bet was advised.

As I said in my write up this morning, hopefully there won’t be too many like today’s (tricky to get on, as opposed to winners !). I would guess there might be 1 or 2 a week – but hopefully no more than that.

On to tomorrow then…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 5th

There are 2 NH meetings today, at Kempton and Plumpton, with the former having a definite edge in terms of the class of horses running.

As a consequence, it is Kempton where I focused my attention and whilst the entire card is of interest, the handicap chase at 3:40 was the race that really caught my attention.

The race has the make and shape of the kind of contest that I like to play in – but it was the presence of one horse, that really caught my eye…

Loch Ba was a decent enough performer last season. He won on his first outing of the campaign (admittedly, a little luckily) and then than really well in defeat behind Lexicon Lad, at Warwick. He also ran well on his next 2 outings – including in finishing fourth behind Our Mick, in a really hot novice handicap chase at the Kempton Christmas meeting.

His final 2 starts of the season were disappointing – but as a result his handicap mark has dropped back to 108 (from a high of 113).

Over the summer, he transferred into the care of Mick Channon (having previously been with Henrietta Knight) and as has been shown a few times recently, horses taking that path are liable to show improved form first time out this campaign…

In truth, aside from his last 2 starts, Loch Ba had looked progressive anyway. Furthermore, he is only 6 years old, so it is reasonable to think his best days are still ahead of him.

He will be going into unknown territory, tackling 3 miles for the first time today – but his breeding and style of running, suggest this shouldn’t pose a problem.

Normally when I advise a strong bet, I like to have significant reservations about the rest of the field – but unfortunately, today, that isn’t really the case !

This is a very hot field for a class 4 chase, with several of the runners still likely to be significantly ahead of the handicapper.

Prime amongst these, is the Rebecca Curtis trained Fishoutofwater. He showed up very well on a few occasions last season and could still have scope for improvement. I‘m not surprised to see him well backed this morning – and with his connections, that support has to be of concern.

However, I always felt he was better with significant cut in the ground – and hopefully the ground won’t be quite soft enough for him today.

The other 2 of particular interest are the Paul Webber trained duo, Firm Order and Tafika: I feel that both of these runners could make up into decent chasers this season (particularly the latter).

It is no exaggeration to say that the last 3 mentioned could easily have 10lb in hand of their current handicap mark – but I feel that it is quite possible that Loch Ba could have double that amount !
The other 5 runners are all decent at this level – but it will be a surprise if any of them are good enough to win today, simply because of the potential of the opposition they face.

In my mind last night, I wanted odds of 3/1 or greater for Loch Ba to be a 2 point bet.

The 4/1 with Paddy Power was therefore very attractive (as was the 9/2 with B365 – but that didn’t last long).

Unfortunately, I was going out last night, just after 5:30 (to a firework display !) so I had to make a very early call on how to play things…

Whilst I had stated in my introduction, that I wouldn’t issue tips until at least 5 bookmakers had priced up a race – and provided at least 2 offered acceptable odds – I felt that I simply had to take a bit of a flyer last night.

Only 3 bookmakers had priced up the race – but all 3 were offering odds that I considered acceptable (so the second of my criteria had been matched).

Hopefully, the vast majority of you managed to get on at the 3/1 minimum price.

If anyone does have a real issue with the way I handled things yesterday, please let me know.

That said, I would hope that such situation won’t crop up too frequently – and my options for dealing with it when it does happen, are limited (if I had not issued at that time, then everyone would have missed the price).

Ofcourse, all this will be irrelevant if Loch Ba doesn’t perform this afternoon – but hopefully that won’t be the case…

Loch Ba 2pt win 4/1

In the previous race on the card (the graduation chase), I could see Hells Bay outrunning his odds. Even though he is the outsider in the field of 3, I think he has enough basic ability to just about win this – assuming he is spot on…

However, he has had physical problems in the past – and this is his first outing of the season – and for a new trainer – so there is a fair deal of doubt.

Also, Ruby is over to ride Ghizao, which suggests that Paul Nicholls is pretty keen on his chances.

I might have a small wager on Hells Bay for interest - but I’ll resist making him a tip…

TVB.

Race review

Another disappointing afternoon, with neither of the selections in the Cork National ever holding much of a chance.

That is actually a complete understatement for The Bishop Looney, who managed to fall at the very first fence !

For a Finish did at least make to the fourth last fence, where he was pulled up when weakening.

He was given a very peculiar ride, settled right out at the back and then making ground on the second circuit. However, his exertions took their toll and he was a spent force approaching the home straight.

The race was won by Raz De Maree, who shrugged off the weight raise incurred for wining the Munster National.

Though whether he would have been successful if Outlaw Pete had not run out at the last, is a mute point…

At Carlisle, Bold Sir Brian was mighty impressive, cruising up to – and then sauntering past, Mr Moonshine. It will certainly be interesting to see how far he can progress this season.

Valley View came to win his race under AP but whether it was the extra distance or the lack of race sharpness, he just didn’t get home and finished a tired fourth.

He will be a different proposition next time, with that run under his belt.

Over at Huntingdon, Attaglance was a NR in the novice chase (presumably on account of the rain softened ground).

Two thirds of the field were NRs in Benny the Swinger's race, which was a shame, because the way he sauntered home, you have to think he would have taken the beating regardless of which other horses had run.

So, very much a weekend to forget – but hopefully the week ahead will see an upturn in fortunes.

There is a surprisingly good card at Kempton tomorrow, so I am now off for a bit of studying.

Some of you will hear from me later ;)

TVB.