Race reviews

Hopefully things are feeling reasonably good from where you guys are sitting…

Today was the third consecutive tipping day in which we’ve had a winner –and the P&L chugs forward by a couple more points. All very nice, I guess…

I just wish it felt as comfortable where I am sat ! I’ve never really been one for backing short priced horses (and when I say short priced, I mean anything in single figures !), so with me tipping 3 or 4 of them a day, I feel a real weight of expectation.

I know that if the service is to be sustainable, this is the way I have to operate.

I’m pretty confident I can judge the pre-race merits of a horse, be it a 20/1 shot or a 2/1 shot – it’s just that, maybe somewhat bizarrely, I feel more comfortable with the former –as there is never the weight of expectation that it will actually win !!

Anyway, enough of my ramblings – I just want to get that off my chest  !!

3 Mainline tips today – plus the early bird tip from last night…

First up was Vino Griego – who I honestly think blew his chance of becoming my ‘cliff’ horse !

Put simply, he should have won today –and he didn’t want to. That’s no good to me – or to anyone else that wants to back him.

The race panned out perfectly for him, he came there cruising at the third last- and then decided he couldn’t be bothered.

I’ll just be watching him from now onwards…

Next it was Realt Dubh, who was almost as disappointing !

Held up by Carberry (not that he had much choice with Flemenstar blazing a trail !) he proceeded to try and take the fifth last fence home with him –and that was that.

If I’m honest, I don’t think he was ever going to win today –and it looked to me as if he was still feeling the effects of his hard race last weekend.

That is a coupe of times I’ve come unstuck with horses that have had recent tough races – it won’t happen again…

Next came the early bird tip, Stow…

When I issued the tip last night, he was 14/1 with B365 – and 12/1 with Ladbrokes. I knew those prices were too big – in my book, he was a 7/1 shot.

However, never did I imagine that he could go off at 5/2. To put it bluntly, that was ridiculous !
In fairness, he looked like rewarding his followers as he was going best entering the home straight (he traded odds on in-running). However, he tired on the run to the second last and eventually finished fourth.

I suspect he will come on for the run (he normally does) and will be of interest again next time (provided we act quickly !).

Talking of which, I have so far only received 3 emails from people who said they managed to get on at any kind of a price last night.

I am hoping that most of you just haven’t got round to contacting me yet –because if only 3 did mange to back him, I need to be looking carefully at the early bird aspect of the service…

The final tip to run was Leaps and Bounds –and fortunately she (or her jockey Tom Scudamore) had read the script…

They took up the running at flag fall and were never headed.

Numbercruncher was the only horse that ever really looked like threatening her- but when Tom asked for extra effort from the second last, she soon had him in trouble.

An unopposed front runner, who can jump like she can, will always take some passing. If only the days previous tips had performed in the same way..!

Just a few quick comments on the other mentions from this morning…

Having sung his praises last Friday, I think Andy Lynch slightly mis-judged things on Voler La Vadette this afternoon. He left her a very long way out of her ground – and unfortunately for him Whatuthink kept on galloping…

I’m sure that Voler la Vadette will improve for the outing and demonstrate herself just as good this season as she has been the past few – but today was one that got away…

Finally at Market Rasen, Barrakilla did indeed see off Mr Watson – and the rest of the field, to record an impressive victory.

You wouldn’t have got rich backing him (he was returned at 2/1) – but I still wish I had tipped him rather than Realt Dubh ;)

Tomorrow looks like a quite day – but I’ll get an email out early evening saying if there will be any tips…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 11th

A brace of domestic NH meetings at Ffos Las and Market Rasen; matched by a brace in Ireland at Navan and Limerick…

I say ‘matched’ but the meeting of the day – by some margin – takes place at the County Meath track of Navan.

Some of the real NH heavy-weights make their seasonal debuts there today – but I’m far from convinced that the big guns will have everything their way…

First up is the brilliant mare, Voler La Vadette, who tries to repeat her victory of 12 months ago, in the Lismullen hurdle.

She faces stiff competition in the shape of the Willie Mullins trained So Young, but I think (and hope !) that she will have his measure…

Just over the an hour later, is the race of the day (and the first tip of the day !).

2:50

The Fortria chase may only have attracted a field of 5 – but it is a very select field.

The most exciting runner is undoubtedly Flemenstar. He looked a horse of immeasurable potential last season, when he won on his final 5 outings of the campaign – including 2 at grade 1 level.

The expectation is that he will scale even greater heights this season – but today’s race is very much a pipe opener and I think he is beatable, by the right horse…

The question is whether the right horse is running in the race today !!

Initially I was very interested in Big Zeb. He has won this race in the past 3 seasons, however there were definite signs of deterioration last year and with him rising 12, his best days are almost certainly behind him.

Fioldubh will be fit; has perfect conditions and receives weight from all his rivals. However, with the best will in the world it difficult to make a case for him being a grade 2 horse.

The same is true of Mr Cracker, who will doubtless try to take the field along – but really needs a greater test than today’s 2 miles –and probably isn’t up to this class anyway…

That just leaves Realt Dubh.

He is a grade 1 winner over fences and also ran probably his best race over the bigger obstacles last spring, when chasing him a bang in form Sizing Europe at the Punchestown festival.

On that form he will take all the beating today – and he also has the benefit of an outing this season.

That was in the JN Wine chase last Saturday, when he cruised through the race but didn’t quite get home.

Provided that race hadn’t left its mark, I think Realt Dubh will take the world of beating today.

1pt win Realt Dubh 11/4

 

Now onto Ffos Las – and the early bird tip issued yesterday evening…

3:05    

I would have loved to have been able to put up Stow as a mainline tip, at 14/1 this morning (I would have been more than happy to put him up as a mainline tip at 10/1) – but I know there was absolutely no chance of that being able to happen…

I can’t imagine what the odds compilers were doing, opening up with him as a 14/1 shot.

The Rebecca Curtis/ Patrick Corbett combination – particularly at Ffos Las – should have set alarm bells ringing – but it clearly didn’t…

More than that, the horse has got very decent form from last season, which suggests it has a live chance, regardless on any improvement that might have been brought about by a stable move…

As followers of TVB early bird from last season, will doubtless recall, Stow is a horse I tipped on his final 3 runs.

On the first of those, he was hammered down to 3/1 (from an opening 10/1) at Chepstow over the Christmas period. He ran a very odd race that day  - but bounced back to form on this following run, when he ran the very well handicapped Reindeer Dippin close ay Haydock.

On his final run of the campaign, he finished a very creditable fifth, behind some progressive rivals at Newbury.

Stow faces no such progressive rival today and gets to run off the same mark that he ran off at Haydock. In short, he is well handicapped.

He will be very well suited by the soft ground and 3 miles trip – whilst the 10lb claim of apprentice Patrick Corbett, is a gift !

The only real concern, is whether Rebecca Curtis had him fully wound up for the first run of the campaign.

His not a horse that has run particularly well fresh in the past  - so we are taking a risk on that score.

However, if she has got him close to 100%, then he has a great chance of getting the early-bird service off to a flying start!

If possible, I would like to know roughly how many of you managed to secure a double-digit price on Stow yesterday evening.

If you did manage to get 10/1+ on him, can you please email me sometime over the next couple for days, and let me know.
This will help give me some idea of how successful the early bird service is likely to be…

1pt win Stow 14/1 B365

3:40

I was originally attracted to this race by the presence of Fishoutofwater.

As I’m sure a few of you will recall, he ran as recently as Monday, in Loch Bas race at Kempton.

Fishoutofwater was pulled up that day – but ran a strange race, having been heavily backed beforehand.

I thought it particularly interesting that connections had opted to run him again inside a week – but he has now been withdrawn from the contest.

In truth, even before his withdrawal, I had decided that he wasn’t going to be my main bet in the race (though I was going to have a saver on him).

Instead, that honour was going to fall to the Michael Scudamore trained Bounds and Leaps.

She was successful on her seasonal debut last year, when dotting up in a chase at Chepstow.

Nothing went right for her from that point onwards – though she ran a couple of fair races, which suggested that she can be competitive off today’s mark.

As a bold front runner, I suspect she is the sort who goes best fresh anyway – and the fact she should have an uncontested lead today, is a big bonus.

There is a slight question mark over the ground - her best runs last season were on quick ground.

However she ran well over hurdles on soft ground, so hopefully that won’t prove an issue.

Assuming Tom Scudamore does get her to the front and into a nice rhythm, I think she will take lot of passing today…

0.75pt win Bounds and Leaps 5/1

Finally, to Market Rasen and the novice handicap chase…

2:15

I have to admit that there is a danger of Vino Griego becoming my ‘cliff’ horse (as in I will follow him over a cliff trying to get him to win !).

He is 13 run maiden over fences – and I must have backed him in at least half of those races !

The thing is, he travels like a class horse – in fact, I think he is a class horse ! – it’s just that he has a reticence to win !

However, I think he has such a lot of things in his favour today, I simply have to have him onside.

Firstly, he has been dropped 4lb in the handicap for an irrelevant seasonal debut at Huntingdon. He’s never been a horse to back first time out –and so it was no surprise that he was well beaten at Huntingdon.

That takes his handicap mark to 126 – and for a horse with his ability, a mark well into the 140s should be achievable.

However, the most important thing for VinoGriego, is the way a race is run. All of his best runs have been in big fields handicaps. However, I think it is the pace of the race – rather than the number of runners – that sees him performing well in this kind of contest.

He only races 6 rivals today – but 2 of them are confirmed front runners and two more like to race prominently. In short, it should be a burn up over the sharp Lincolnshire track.
If that is the case, Jamie Moore should be able to ride a waiting race on Vino Griego and bring him to challenge u p the home straight, as the others are tiring.
If it all goes to plan, I could see Vino Griego crossing the line as his nearest rival jumps the last – if it doesn’t, there will always be another day ;)

0.5pt win Vino Griego 8/1

Just one other quick mention at Market Rasen where in the novice hurdle at 1:40, I will not be surprised if Barrakilla under Paul Maloney, gets the better of favourite Mr Watson (the horse that tried to re-arrange APs face at Wetherby). You are not going to get too rich backing him to do so, though !!

Here’s to a good day ahead…

TVB.

Race reviews

It was a little bit the case of what might have been today – but at least The Package ensured that the P&L continues to move in the right direction…

Cootehill was the first of the tips to run – and he was also my best bet of the day.

Unfortunately he didn’t rise to the responsibility and ran very poorly to finish fourth.

To be honest, I’m at a loss to explain why he ran such a lifeless race. Maybe the ground had become a bit too soft for him; maybe he didn’t like the course – or maybe Nigel Twiston Davies horses are not quite right at the moment.

Whatever the reason, the result was very disappointing…

Just over half an hour later, Lemon Drop Red ran better – but the end result was the same…

Once again, he failed to get home in a race and looks a bit of a short runner.

I dare say the ground (which was softer than I expected) didn’t help him – nor the uphill finish – but unless he gets on a quick track, in fast conditions, I don’t think I’ll be following him in the immediate future…

And so it was left to The Package and Timmy Murphy to save the day – and they didn’t let us down…

Always travelling sweetly, he took up the running approaching the home turn and was soon half a dozen lengths clear.

Ruby and Michel Le Bon threatened to run him down between the final 2 fences, but Timmy had kept something in reserve and ultimately, he won well.

With this under his belt, there is no reason why he can’t progress throughout the season.

Now onto the ones that got away…

Maybe most irritating of all, was Knockara Beau at Kelso.

Under Lucy Alexander, he jumped much better than has been the case in the past and ultimately, he beat Blenheim Brook quite comfortably…

The forecast paid just over 10/1 and is a trick that I missed (hopefully one or two of you were a little smarter than me !).

In the following race at Kelso, Stagecoach Pearl was a major disappointment and finished a well beaten last of 6…

A little like Sophonie earlier in the week, I couldn’t help thinking that he maybe  hadn’t recovered form a tough race last time out – as his run today was just too bad to be true…

If that was a couple of points saved, there were soon to be offset by missing Time for Spring, over at Sandown.

My main concern with him, was whether he would get home today up the Sandown hill – but I had forgotten that AP as on board…

I reckon that if the horse had tried to stop, he would just have got off and carried him over the line !

Back at Wincanton, Houblon Des Obeaux put up a surprisingly good performance to give weight and a beating to some potentially decent novices chasers.

It was hard not to be impressed and the suggestion is that he might be real force over fences.

Zarkandar was also impressive in battling to victory in the Elite hurdle.

He is a class hurdler and it will be interesting to see if he can make a challenge for top honours this season. That said, he had a hard race this afternoon and I suspect he will need a good few weeks to recover from it.

Finally at Navan Gabriel Brandy ran a commendable race in the bumper to take third place (thereby rewarding EW support ;) ).

Not that I’m ever likely to tip him, but the winner, Ned Buntline, looked a potentially very serious horse indeed…

On to tomorrow then.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 10th

There are 3 very decent domestics NH cards this afternoon, at Wincanton, Sandown and Kelso, respectively - plus a very interesting card at Naas in Ireland…

Wincanton hosts the highest profile NH meeting of the day, but it is not a course that I’m particularly fond of.

I don’t mean that in a geographical sense – I’ve never actually been there and it looks fine as a venue - however, the dominance of Paul Nicholls at the track, tends to put me off betting there (I don’t tend to back his horses, as they are invariably overbet).

That said, you can’t knock his record, so I find that generally I’m better off just leaving races there alone.

Sandown, on the other hand, is a course I like very much – and it is thus no surprise that my best bet of the day runs there.

One of our numbers is going racing there this afternoon (hope you have a good afternoon Jim !) – and he asked me earlier this week if I would be able to mark his card for today.

I was happy to do that, as it put me a little ahead of the game – and it gave me an early sighting of a horse I’ve been waiting to back…

2:25

Cootehill ran much better than it appears, last time out in a very valuable race at Fakenahm.

He was unfancied that day, on the back of a disappointing seasonal debut at Chepstow. However when he moved through to challenge at the third last at the Norfolk venue, he looked certain to place – at very least.

However, Cootehill is more of a 2m4f horse than a 3m horse – and his stamina gave way over the final few furlongs of the race.

As a consequence, he only managed a fifth placing – but that has seen the handicapper drop him 2lb for today’s run.

As recently as April, Cootehill define a mark just 2lb lower than today. When successful at Ludlow (also a right handed track –and also on soft ground). He followed up that performance with a creditable third to Ostland off a mark of 138.

Off 133 today, he is well handicapped – and with distance, ground and track to suit, I really struggle to see him not running a very big race today.

Cootehill would be a very strong fancy but for the presence of some potential progressive rivals.

Top Smart, Niceonefrankie and  Amaury De Lusignan all have the potential to be a fair bit better than their current mark. However non have them have run this season and consequently they may all improve for the outing.

Peachy Moment is interesting in that Nicky Richards sends him all the way down from his Penrith base; whilst Rob Conti has also looked a horse on the upgrade.

All this said, I think that Cootehill sets a fairly high standard for them to aim at and whilst I guess one of them might prove his superior on the day (hence the staking of the bet – we get our money back if he finishes second) I will be very disappointed if Cootehill isn’t there or thereabout at the finishing line.

1pt win 0.5pt place Cootehill 9/1

3:00

In the following race on the card, Lemon Drop Red is the one that catches my eye…

He ran very well in the Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, last March and again on his seasonal debut at Chepstow a fortnight ago.

He very much looked likely to be involved in the finish on the latter occasion, but just didn’t finish off his race.

Hopefully that was because the run was needed and if that is the case, he will go very close today off a mark 4lb lower (7lb lower than his run at Cheltenham).

The other one that catches my eye in the race, is Valid Reason, who has been in decent form on the flat.

Hopefully Lemon Drop Kid will have his measure !!

0.5pt win Lemon Drop Kid 9/1

I was hoping to be able to tip in the penultimate race on the Sandown card – but the prices just aren’t there on the 2 horses I’m interested in…

They are Time for Spring and Graduation Night, who finished fourth and fifth respectively behind Hunters Lodge at the October Cheltenham meeting.

Of the 2, I would have a slight (and I mean slight !) preference for Time for Spring –but in a competitive race, I was hoping for at least 7/1 about either one.

A best price of 5/1 (so 2/1 the pair) mean that I must reluctantly pass on the race…

Back at Wincanton, despite my aversion to the course, I decided to have a small play in the big race…

3:25

There may be a 13 runner field, I’ll be a little surprised if the winner of this contest doesn’t come from the top 5 in the betting…

Looking at it last night, I had narrowed the race down to 2: The Package and Diamond Harry.

Put simply, if Diamond Harry is back to his best, he will hack up in this !

He cantered home in the Hennessey a coupe of years back off a 6lb higher mark than he runs off today.

As a result of that victory, his official mark went up to 166 – he gets to run off 150 today.

First time out is also the best time to catch him – so why aren’t I all over him ?

Because simply, if he was back to his best, he would have been put in around 5/2 this morning – and people would still be rushing to take that price. A price of 8/1 is too big – way too big – and I have to be suspicious of it…

I guess I might end up looking silly (and I might have a little saver on him just in case !) but if the people close to him knew he was back to his best, that price simply wouldn’t be there…

The other horse I was particularly interest in the race – and the one that I ultimately made the selection for the race – is The Package..

He is a fragile sort who doesn’t tend to see the racecourse very often. However when he does turn up, he invariably runs a big race.
That was the case on his only outing of last season, when he finished fourth at the Cheltenham festival.

He gets to run off the same mark today – and apparently this has always been his target.

There is the chance that the likes of Micahel Le Bon and Golden Chieftain will improve past him, but he sets a very fair standard and is worth a small play at the prices

0.5pt win The Package 7/1

Earlier, on a card which looks far more suitable for viewing than for punting, I thought that King of the Night could be of interest at a price in the novice chase. Whilst it will be fascinating to see if Zarkandar can give away the weight in the Elite hurdle (though I wouldn’t be betting on it !!)

Kelso also hosts a decent card today – and I’m a little disappointed that I haven’t got a tip (or two !) for you there.

However, as was the case in the chase at Sandown, the horses I am interested in, have been priced up a tad lower than I would have liked, so I am reluctantly giving them a miss…

In the chase at 2:05 , I was torn between Blenheim Brook and Knockara Beau.

They were both put in at 5/1 yesterday evening and I would have been interested in either at that price. However, there has been a significant NR this morning and they are now 3/1 and 7/2 respectively (best prices).

That gives little more than even money coupled – and whilst I would expect one of them to win, I don’t want to play at that kind of price…

In the following race, I think that top weight Stagecoach Pearl, will take all the beating.

At 5/2, I would have had a couple of points on him – but at 15/8, I have to pass…

Win, lose or draw, price is all important when you are betting. If you consistently take below the odds, you will lose.

It is frustrating to find horses and then have to leave them alone – but that is the right thing to do.

Ultimately, it is only one race in a long season – there will be many other days…

Finally, over at Naas.

A little like Wincanton, it strikes me as a meeting to watch rather than bet in.

However, if I was forced to make one wager on the day: flushed with the success of my 12/1 bumper winner at Fontwell yesterday (I hope some of your were on ;) ), I would plump for Gabriel Brandy in the finale.

He is trained by John Kiely – who knows how to train bumper horses – and ridden by Robbie McNamara – who knows how ride bumper horses.

Taking on a couple of animals from the Meade and Mullins tables, he is likely to be a price (currently 10/1) and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him go very close…

Here’s to a good day !

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 9th

There are 3 domestic meetings today at Musselburgh, Hexham and Fontwell – but what an uninspiring bunch of fixtures.

I am honestly struggling to see any merit at all in the meetings at Fontwell and Hexham  – and whilst the meeting at Musselburgh is a little better, I can’t find anything I would like to tip in the 2 or 3 potentially suitable races…

At Mussleburgh, Switched Off looks quite interesting in the opener on his debut for Donald McCain. There has also been a little money for him this morning, which doesn’t weaken his case…

It is very interesting to see Davy Russell over from Ireland for a couple of rides for Nicky Richards…

I’ve no idea what is going on there – but have to admit that both of his mounts do look quite interesting.

That said, both Simply Ned in the handicap hurdle and Glingerburn in the bumper, have been put in as quite short priced favourites.

I would actually choose to take on Glingerburn, with the James Ewart trained Sharivarry. He has got fair PTP form in Ireland and has apparently been pleasing his new connections.

At Fontwell, Jive Master looks quite interesting for Tim Vaughan in the handicap hurdle at 2:10. However, I would be wary of Dashing Ruby, who makes his British debut today and is quite well handicapped on some of his Irish form.

In the finale, Ourmanmasini is potentially interesting as the only ride of the day for Paddy Brennan. Suzy Smith does OK with her bumper runners and this one has shown some form in PTPs. He could be interesting if there is money for him…

Finally at Hexham. What do you say about a card, where the best race of the day, is probably the 4 runner seller that starts it..?

Very little !

Things will be better tomorrow guys – I have no doubt about that !!!

TVB.

Race reviews

A bit of a mixed bag of a day, results wise – but we got a winner on the board and came out of the afternoon, in profit, so no real complaints from this end…

First into battle for us, was Spring Heeled.

He jumped very well in the opening novice chase at Thurles, but seemed to lack a bit of sharpness and could only plug on into fifth place.

He will be sharper with the run under his belt –and doubtless more effective over an extra half mile.

Next up, it was Benbane Head, who was involved in what was probably the finish of the day in the handicap hurdle at Towcester.

Despite some generally sticky hurdling (doubtless the legacy of jumping fences on  his recent runs) and never really looking likely to win, Robert Thorton somehow managed to force his in front, precisely where it mattered.

It was a real gutsy effort from the both horse and jockey.

Back at Towcester, Middlebrook took his career outings to 17 without success – so much for my plot theory !

In truth, he just looked to be a very limited animal and it was of little surprise to see him pulled up five fences from home.

I don’t think we will be on him when he next looks to break his maiden status !

Finally, The Big Freeze managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, over at Mussleburgh. He was clearly the best horse in the race, but his inability to corner at he sharp Scottish track, ultimately cost him dear.

He must literally have given away a dozen lengths as Richard Johnson had to tug him round almost every corner –and yet he was only beaten a length at the line.

On a more conventional track, he will take some beating in a similar race.

Earlier on the Mussleburgh card, Dovils Date ensured that Richard Johnson and Tim Vaughan got something out of the day: whilst over at Towcester, Highland Lodge did indeed prove too good for his rivals and in the process looked like a horse to follow…

So there we have it: 2 points profit on the day (I will settle the winner at 8/1 as that was the best easily available price at the time I issued the tip) – which is a fair return.

Better than that though, a TVB winner by the narrowest of margins – I never thought I would see the day ;)

TVB

Daily write-up - Nov 8th

Domestic NH action today from Musselburgh and Towcester, with a meeting at Thurles in Southern Ireland…

Some days, I look at the overnight declarations, and potential bets just jump out at me…

Other days, I look at the overnight declaration and I see nothing !!

You may find this hard to believe, but yesterday lunchtime, when I started looking at the overnight declarations for today, I saw nothing. However, if I look hard enough, I can invariably find something !!

In the middle of yesterday evening, I was quite sure that today would be my first ‘no bet’ day. But then I found a few potentially interesting mentions – and a couple of those turned into borderline tips – and before I knew it, I’d got the busiest day of the service so far !

One point I should make is that non of today’s selections are rock solid. I think all 4 have a decent chance – and I will be a little disappointed if at least 1 of them doesn’t oblige – but there are no certainties in there.

However, that is why I have a staking system. 0.5pt win on all 4, means a total stake for the day of 2pts. That is the same amount as I had on Loch Ba – and that feels about right.

So, onto today’s tips, starting at Towcester…

Benbane Head is a very talented animal, who seems to have lost his way over fences…

Last time out, he unseated his rider and connections have clearly decided that it is time to restore his confidence, with a run over hurdles.

His current chase mark is 125 – but he ran creditably at the Cheltenham festival, just 6 months ago, off a mark of 136.

Today, he gets to run off a mark of 119 – which shows how potentially well handicapped he is.

This is backed-up by the fact that Benbane Head had plenty of fair form over hurdles, from marks in the 120s, a couple of season ago….

Decent ground is key to Benbane Head, but I think that today’s good to soft ground at Towcester should be fine for him.

I also think it quite noteworthy that Benbane Head is the only ride of the day for Robert Thornton. This suggests to me that connections aren’t just trying to restore the horses’ confidence –they are going to the win.

Of his opponents, Destroyer Deployed is potentially very interesting – even with top weight.

As a former runner up in the Cheltenham Bumper, a mark of 120 looks very lenient. This is because Destroyer Deployed under performed during his first season over obstacles.

He could well leave that mark behind this season as he gains experience. However, first time out and with top weight, I think he is more likely to perform with credit that he is to win.

0.5pt win Benbane Head 9/1

I’m taking a bit of a flyer on Middlebrook, as he is not the kind of horse I would normally tip (he has an official mark of just 82 !).

However, for those of you who like my theories (!) he is undoubtedly the most interesting selection of the day…

As a 16 race maiden, some of you might think I am losing the plot by tipping Middlebrook (and I guess, time might prove you right !) but I think there is a bit more to him than meets the eye…

He has actually got some decent form in the book – most notably perhaps, a second place behind Opera Og at Towcester on his chasing debut, last season…

Although beaten a fair way that day, Middlebrook was unlucky to bump into quite a decent performer in Opera Og and he gets to run off a pound lower mark today.

His 4 subsequent runs over fences have yielded 2 falls – and that has to be a concern today – but also a very fair third of 15 at Southwell..

Middlebrooks last 3 runs have been over hurdles, but he has hardly set the world alight over the smaller obstacles…

What interests me about Middlebrook though, is that his best performance last season was at Towcester, which really is a specialist course.

In his run behind Opera Og, he was staying on stoutly at the finish – and he steps up half a mile in trip for today’s contest.

There are also a few subtle signs that point to today being the day when connections are going for it with Middlebrook. Firstly, he is the only horse that Peter Niven sends on the 160+ mile trip from North Yorkshire; the only ride of the day for Andrew Thorton and today is the day that connections have choosen to deploy a hood for the first time.

Those subtle signs, coupled with decent course form and a return to chasing, make him look an interesting bet to me, at 8/1 in a 7 horse race…

0.5pt win Middlebrook 8/1 

Finally at Towcester, a quick mention for the novice chase that opens up the card…

For me, this is just about the race of the day (I do love my novice chases !) and whilst I think Highland Lodge should be good enough to win, he is facing some very strong rivals. Certainly a race to watch and savour…

Over to Musselburgh then…

If I’m honest, I missed a trick with The Big Freeze last night.

B365 opened up with him as an 8/1 shot – and he really should have been an early bird tip at that price.

However, there is no pointing dwelling on what I should have done – the question this morning was whether he represented any value at 5/1 – and I think the answer is just about ‘yes’…

To be honest, there is nothing particularly clever about selecting The Big Freeze in this race.

He is a progressive chaser, who is gradually getting his act together over fences. He ran quite well at Huntingdon last time out and yet has been dropped 2 lbs in the handicap following that run.

Richard Johnson and Tim Vaughan team up for 2 runners on the card. They will both have travelled almost 400 miles to get to the east coast of Scotland from their stables in South Wales.
I very much doubt they will be making that journey with the intention of going home empty handed (their other runner is Dovils Date in the juvenile hurdle).

There are dangers, particularly in the form of the potentially revitalised Or De Grugy.

However, if Richard Johnson can get The Big Freeze into a rhythm up front, jumping and travelling, I think he will take some catching round the sharp Musselburgh track…

0.5pt win The Big Freeze 5/1

Finally, over to Thurles…

I simply can’t resist a small play on Spring Heeled in the opening novice chase…

He was a horse I followed closely last season, from his very first outing, when he pulled off a surprise victory over the subsequently high class Jenari (who also looks like he could make a very decent novice chaser, this season).

Spring Heeled only managed to register one further victory last campaign, but 2 of his 4 subsequent races were at graded level and he probably wasn’t quite up to that at the time…

In truth though, he always looked the type to make a better chasers than he was hurdler. He is a bright chestnut, with plenty of scope and it will certainly be disappointing if he doesn’t take fairly high rank amongst the Irish novice chasers by the end of the campaign.

The main doubt in my mind is whether today’s 2 mile trip will provide him with sufficient test of stamina. However it was 2 miles that he beat Jenarai over first time up last season and he is a pretty keen going sort, so I don’t think he’ll want for pace.

There are obviously quite a few dangers – but most of them would also prefer a greater test of stamina – so provided his jumping cuts the mustard, I am hopeful of a very big show.

0.5pt win Spring Heeled 13/2

Here’s to an interesting – and profitable – day !!

TVB.