Review of the day

I’m a great believer that, if something looks too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true…

The price on Hisaabaat this morning almost looked too good to be true.

If you had asked anyone with a knowledge of form to price up the race, they might have had Hisaabaat in as the outsider of the 3 – but only just. Instead of which, he was available to back at a general 6/1…

I was prepared to view the early price as something of a rick. However, when he continued to drift throughout the morning – and was easily available at 10 on BF in the minutes before the off, I suspected our bet was doomed…

And so it turned out…

Hisaabaat travelled well enough in the race in last place – but was never really asked much of a question.

His mistake at the second last sealed his fate – but I don’t think he would have won  regardless…

Time may tell that he was facing an impossible task – but I somehow doubt it.

He clearly wasn’t at his peak today – a fact that somebody knew and was prepared to back with hard cash.

All we can do is brush ourselves down and move on…

Things didn’t get much better with the second tip of the day – In Great Form.

In truth, it is difficult to know exactly how he ran, as visibility had virtually gone by the time his race took place.

When he came into sight, around half way, he didn’t seem to be travelling too well – and when the runners appeared out of the gloom jumping the last, he was no longer with them….

My guess is that he wants a longer trip – but it is difficult to be adamant about that, in the circumstances…

So all in all, a pretty poor weekend…

We got a break earlier in the week – but that now seems a long time ago and the P&L for the month is back close to level.

Still, I guess things could be worse.

I just need to get back into the zone that I was in early in December – only this time hopefully with a bit of luck to keep me company !

If we can get that combination, then things should start rolling again !

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 13th

The abandonment of Fakenham, has left us with just the 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Kelso in Scotland and Navan in Ireland…

The Kelso meeting is very low grade and there is nothing that holds any appeal.

Navan on the other hand, host quite an interesting meeting and I’ve managed to find us a couple of tips there…

12:45

I’ve got to be honest, I really don’t get the betting for this particular race…

I can only assume it is based on the official ratings of the 3 runners – because based on other factors, it simply doesn’t make sense !!

On official ratings, Hisaabaat has got 6lb to find with his 2 rivals, so I guess a price of 6/1 about him winning is just about understandable.

He is also a little more exposed that the other 2, so doesn’t have the same level of ‘mystique’ about him…

However, if you take away those factors and look purely at the form book, I reckon he should be much closer to the other 2 in the betting – and arguably even favourite…

Last season, he was one of the top juvenile hurdlers; finishing second in the Triumph hurdle at the Cheltenham festival and wining the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Punchestown festival.

He was given a rating of 143 for those performances – but I can’t see why that is…

The winner of the Triumph, Countrywide Flame, has a rating of 158; Grumeti, who finished third in the race, has a rating of 153; Dodging Bullets, who finished fourth, has a rating of 156.

Based on their ratings, Hisaabaat should be rated in the mid 150s. If that were the case, he would presumably be odds on today !

It is true to say that Hisaabaat has been a little disappointing in his 3 runs since his Punchestown win.
However, they came at Auteuil, in their grade 1 juvenile hurdle, which was at the end of a long season for Hisaabaat; a pipe opener on the flat at the Curragh (where he actually ran pretty well) and a 4 year old hurdle at Navan, where he was attempting to give almost a stone to the potentially top class Jezki and Un Beu Matin.

In truth, the last run was a little disappointing – not that he was beaten, but the way he backed out of the race.

Still, Dermot Weld has given him plenty of time to recover from that race, and if he returns today in top form, I think he will take the world of beating…

Cause of causes has got his rating of 149 through some tremendous performance in big field handicaps. Today will provide a completely different test for him.

Midnight Game on the other hand, has looked better in small fields – though I feel he has a fair bit to prove to justify his rating of 149.

One potential concern with the race, is that all 3 runners like to be held up – so pace could be a real issue.

The race might ultimately be won by jockey tactics – but if it is going to turn into a lottery, then I would rather be on the outsider than one of the favourites !

My guess is that Midnight Game will be forced to make the running – but hopefully Andy Lynch won’t let Hisaabaat get too far our of his ground.

If that is the case, then I would be hopeful that he can quicken up past his rivals in the final couple of furlongs…

0.5pt win Hisaabaat 6/1

3:15

My first impression was that this looked a very tricky race – but on examining in a little more closely, I’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t either Harpsy Cord or In Great Form…

I have a slight preference for the latter – so at nearly double the price of the former, he simply had to be the tip…

Last time out, In Great Form was sent off a very well backed third favourite for the hugely valuable Paddy Power chase.

He ran really well in the race to finish fifth. He never really looked like winning – but it was still a commendable effort for a relatively inexperienced horse is such a competitive chase.

He drops back in trip by half a mile for today contest – and it is debatable whether that is a good thing. That said, with stamina likely to be at a premium in the very heavy ground, you will certainly want a horse capable of staying the distance.

The trip certainly won’t be an issue for Harpsy Cord…

He was a very unlucky loser at Limerick over the Christmas period, when he fell at the final fence, with the race in safe keeping.

However, he has been raised 3lb for that run – and is likely to be over-bet on the back of it. You can never be totally sure how a horse will react to a fall – and whilst I suspect he will be fine, I would struggle to take very short odds on him today.

On balance then I think In Great From represents the value in the race.

There is little doubt that it will be run at a very solid pace and if he can keep tabs on the leaders, then I would be optimistic that his stamina will come into play up the home straight.

0.5pt win In Great Form 6/1

Elsewhere on the card, I could see Another Challenge running a very big race in the novice hurdle at 1:15.

Whilst I did toy with putting up Spring Heeled – EW – in the novice chase at 2:45…

He looks to me like an EW bet to nothing – the trouble is, I would be quite surprised if he were good enough to win – and there is always a danger of non completion in novice chases.

Obviously that could work in our favour ! – but with ‘normal’ TVB luck, I wouldn’t be betting on that happening !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

No joy this afternoon – though my reading of the races wasn’t too bad and with a bit of luck, we might have got the winner of the Lanzarote…

Alas, that wasn’t to be, as first Buck Magic just ran out of steam – and then Captain Sunshine, who was finishing like a train, took a crashing fall at the final hurdle…

Whether he would have been able to reel in the winner, Oscar Dara, is a mute point.

That said, he made up an enormous amount of ground up the home straight and I can’t help feel that he really should have gone very close indeed. 

No complaints about Buck Magic though. He ran a very game race – and whilst this is probably as good as he currently is, he is young enough to continue to improve.

He will certainly be very interesting over fences, next season…

In the following race, I suspect that Kingsmere was found out by ground that looked more soft, than good…

His jumping wasn’t that clean (which can often be a sign) and although he was in a break away group of 5, he was soon under pressure and ultimately was pulled up.

He will doubtless bounce back to form on better ground…

The final tip of the day, was Benheir in the Classic Chase at Warwick.

However, we knew our fate with him very early on.

He made a shocking blunder at the very first fence and his jockey did well to retain the partnership.

However, that seemed to affect his confidence and after a number of other mistakes, he was eventually pulled up…

The race was won by Rigadin Du Beauchene – as I thought might be the case !

His jumping seems to be improving with every run – and it has been obvious for quite some time, that he has an engine.

Again, we have to feel a little unfortunate that we didn’t get a win out of him last time – but that seems to be the way of it quite a bit for TVB selections…

Earlier on the card at Warwick, Rody put a very impressive performance to defy a 10lb rise in the 2 mile chase.

He looks a chaser on the up and it will be interesting to see how far he can go.

Eastlake also put in another good round of jumping and might finally be starting to fulfil his potential…

The Pertemps qualifier could almost have been a disastrous race for us…

As I’d done in the Lanzarote, I considered a split stake tip across Holywell and Hada Men. Watching them finish second and third might just have pushed me over the edge !

Instead, I just had to watch them do that, having backed them myself !!!

Over at Kempton, nothing performed well enough to get the better of solid yard stick, Bally Legend – and consequently he won !

He was another ex tip coming good – and if he had managed to jump the last as well when I tipped him as he did today, this might have been his second win of the campaign…

Finally, Starluck ran really well in the last race on the card, but was already beaten when he took a fall at the final flight.

If he can build on this run, there are definitely more races to be won with him…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 12th

There are a total of 4 NH meetings taking place today: at Kempton, Warwick, Wetherby and Punchestown…

Noting caught my eye at either of Wetherby or Punchestown, so I focused my efforts on Kempton and Warwick.

It’s funny how on some days, the tips/bets jump out at you, whilst on others, finding anything is a real struggle. Well, today definitely fell into the latter category..!

Ever the professional though, I spent a lot of time last night diligently trying to find bets and my thoughts – along with the bets I did find – are detailed below…

Starting with the meeting at Kempton:

2:05

I initially thought that this was a perfect race for me…

A relatively small field chase, where I would be able to eliminate a few of the runners – and find a bit of value in the remainder.

However, it soon became clear, that nothing was actually capable of winning it ! - which made finding a tip a bit tricky !!

By elimination, Bally Legend is the most likely to be first home – but he sets a standard that I suspect something will surpass…

If Triangular bounces back to form, he could win – but it would take an act of faith to support him.

Furthermore, he is comfortably held on last years running by Cruachin – but he couldn’t possibly be supported on the back of any of his runs since then.

On quicker ground, Wessex King would be the one. However, he doesn’t like the soft – and his handicap mark is too tight to take a risk.

The others are either hopelessly out of form; not good enough or under-priced (in some cases a combination of all 3 !).

Perhaps now you can see why I chose to give the race a wide berth…

2:40

I’m quite keen to take on the top 3 in the market here…

They all represent Henderson/Nicholls and have been priced accordingly. However all 3 have question marks in my mind: either their handicap marks; the reliability of their form; or the jockey booking…

Instead, I’ve opted for a split stake bet across a couple of our old friends: Buck Magic and Captain Sunshine…

I’m keenest n Buck Magic, who is still a relatively unexposed hurdler and looks to have been laid out for this following his victory at Cheltenham in November…

That was a really competitive race and he ground out a victory in hugely tenacious style.

An 8lb rise is probably not beyond him and it puts him just in the handicap proper, on 10st…

The booking of Dougie Costello is also very eye-catching. He rides most of Mulhollands best horses – but I do think his powerful style will be very well suited to the horse.

If they have a chance jumping the last, I think they will take some stopping…

Captain Sunshine let us down the last time we supported him – but I’m happy to just view that as a blip…

On the rest of his form he looks a very decent and progressive animal.

It is very interesting to note that on his hurdling debut, he was beaten ¾ of a length by Back Thunder when racing off level weights. He gets 13lb off that horse today – and yet is more than double the price.

Of course a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, but it is an interesting form line…

2 things slightly trouble me about Captain Sunshine however: firstly, his ability to act on soft ground; and secondly the jockey booking of Richie McLernon. 

That said, it is impossible to know just how soft the ground is – and McLernon isn’t a bad jockey – just a slightly strange booking.

Based on from/profile, I would give Captain Sunshine a very good chance and therefore he is worth a small bet at the prices…

0.5pt win Buck Magic 12/1

0.25pt win Captain Sunshine 14/1

3:15

Kingsmere is just about my best bet of the day. That said, he is running in a competitive race and is no certainty !

I have some concerns about him getting the trip on softish ground – and I would prefer to see him carrying a little less weight – but if that were the case, we wouldn’t be getting 10/1 on him !

On the plus side, he is a progressive young chaser, haling from an in form stable.

Last time out, he ran really well in the Paddy Power Gold cup. He was still in with a chance at the top of the hill, but gradually weakened out of things on the run to the second last and was eventually pulled up.

Although that race was over half a mile less than todays, it was run on very heavy ground and at a frenetic pace. With less pace and on better ground, I think Kingsmere has a much better chance of getting home.

In fact he has got 3 miles a number of times in the past (admittedly on decent ground) and as he is from the same family as the smart stayer Mighty Man, the trip alone, shouldn’t be an issue. 

The ground might be – but hopefully it will be fast enough for him to get away with it…

Of the others, Baile Anrai is probably the most interesting (and I did consider a saver on him). That said, he looks best in very small fields and has to bounce back from a disappointing seasonal reappearance last time out…

Golden Chieftain has the ability to be able to defy top eight – if on his best form. Whilst at the other end of the handicap, Handtheprizeover is justifiably favourite and will take the beating…

0.5pt Kingsmere 10/1

3:50

I was half tempted by Starluck in this race – and if the 16/1 available last night had still been there this morning, he might well have been a tip.

That said, he would have been a risky tip…

Whilst he is tumbling down the handicap; will be suited by the course and the addition of blinkers is an interesting move; he has shown precious little for a long time, including last time out at Sandown.

The other one of potential interest, was Turn Over Sivola. He was disappointing last time at Cheltenham, but the Kempton track should suit him better today.

However, neither horse was really at a price where it warranted taking on favourite, Forgotten Voice, who based on flat form, could be different class to the rest of the field…

Over to Warwick…

1:15

I got very close to tipping Jumps Road in this – but I just couldn’t make a sufficiently compelling case…

To a large extent, it was based around issues I have with his rivals:

Kapga De Cerisy is very short in the betting – and I suspect wants a little further…

Rody took a whopping rise in the weights for his win last time and has it all to do under top weight…

Eastlake is not entirely convincing over fences…

Whilst the others still have to improve to reach the require standard.

However, Jumps Road himself has a bit to prove following his lacklustre run last time – and is from a stable that is struggling for a bit of form… 

If he handles the ground OK and gets into a rhythm jumping, then I think he could be the one to beat. But there are too many question marks considering he is only an 8/1 shot…

2:25

An absolute minefield !!

I’ll offer you 2 against the field in Hada Men and Holywell…

The latter is by far the more solid – and I would expect him to run into a place, at least.

He has been raised 5lb for a courageous run last time out – but that is offset by the claim of Maurice Linenhan.

He has everything in his favour and should run a big race.

The issue is simply the price and the opposition (which could literally be anything !).

Hada Men is a lot more risky – and has no chance on recent form.
However, he looked very decent last season and has dropped 4lb this season on the back of 2 disappointing runs. I think the step up in trip will suit him and he could be worth a small play at big odds…

3:35

I’m putting Benheir up in this race, simply because I think he represents ‘value’ in a very open looking contest…

He is a young, unexposed, progressive chaser – who seems to stay all day.

His last 2 runs have been very merit worthy. A defeat of Master Neo at Ffos Las; and a second to the back to form Carruthers, at the same track.

His rating of 137 looks a touch high to me – but Patrick Corbett will take off 7lb, which will help.

I can see him running a big race and would have expected him to be around half the price that was available this morning…

In terms of the most likely winner of the race, then I would probably nominate either Rigadin De Beauchene or Flying Award.

They will both be helped by having to carry feather weights over this marathon trip.

Rigadin is probably the most likely winner, as he is very well handicapped.

However, he is not guaranteed to stay the trip – and there must be a chance that he will take a liberty with at least one of the fences.

One thing’s for sure backing him is not for the faint hearted !

Flying Award has to prove he is up to this class – but he is progressing nicely and certainly worth his place in the line up.

All this said, in a race where it is difficult to eliminate many, Benheir looks like the value call – to a small stake.

0.25pt EW Benheir 22/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

It’s always disappointing when a horse you really fancy gets beaten – and the performance of Sophonie today was disappointing…

That said, it was not a complete surprise. I had surmised that she was having breathing difficulties – and we were counting on the tongue tie sorting them out.

If it had done, I am confident that she would have won – but it didn’t and she ended up well beaten…

Such is life.

I still think she was a good bet at the price on offer this morning. Ultimately, we got well over 3/1 on a horse that was sent off a very strong 13/8 favourite.

That is huge in terms of a percentage shift – and at the front end of the market.

There will always be risks when you are backing horse (particularly over jumps). We took a risk with the jumping of Valmari on Wednesday and got away with it – we weren’t so fortunate today…

With Sophonie failing to get home, it was left to Memorabilia and Bobby Dove to fight out the finish, with the latter showing a good attitude to get up close home. He is clearly improving – though he ended up with very little to beat…

Earlier in the afternoon, Bertenbar ran an odd race…

I quite liked his chances – and thought he was a fair price - so I was amazed to see him available at nearly 20 on Betfair half an hour before the off – and to hundreds of pounds…

Experience has taught me that when a layer on Betfair is prepared to offer double the best odds available with the bookmakers, then they are rarely wrong in their assessment…

Bertenbar looked a little distracted when asked to line up – but ultimately jumped off fine and travelled very nicely on the rail in fourth or fifth place.

In fact, approaching the home turn, I was optimistic that he might be able to pull off an unlikely victory – as he and the eventual winner, were travelling much better than the rest of the field. However, within a few strides, he was beaten…

It looked to me as if he didn’t stay – but I don’t really believe that to be the case. Maybe he didn’t stay in the very soft ground – that is a possibility.

The other possibility was that he was just short of a bit of work (and someone knew that to be the case) – and as a consequence he didn’t get home…

I wouldn’t write him off completely on the back of this run – but I would be wary about following him in the future.

Over at Sedgefield, Shadows Lengthen won the novice chase in convincing fashion. I think it is fair to say that we were a little unlucky with him last time out.

Whilst Dougie Costello took a very strange route on Along Came Rosie – giving up the outside to absolutely no-one !

In fairness, it is easy to knock a jockey when unusual tactics don’t come off – and his tactics failed in quite spectacular style ! However, I would always applaud initiative from a jockey – and the money behind the horse suggested that she was certainly trying today.

On to tomorrow then…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 11th

A relatively quiet day for a Friday, with just a couple of NH meetings taking place, at Huntingdon and Sedgefield.

A big day for us though, with a very strong bet in the penultimate race at Huntingdon…

Firstly, I should apologise for the timing of the issuing of today’s bets…

As I said last night, I wanted to strike as early as possible – I just didn’t appreciate how slow the bookmakers were going to be pricing up the races.

In an ideal world, I would have waited a further 15 mins or so before issuing, to enable more bookmakers to price up (and by then, the ones who had priced up, would also have been a little braver in standing a bet !).

Unfortunately however, I don’t live in an ideal world – and in the world I do live in, I need to be out of the house by 8:45 at the latest, for the school run.

Consequently, I was forced to issue the bets at that point (as I wasn’t prepared to risk the price still being there on my return).

Hopefully, it won’t have caused a big issue to most of you. The 4/1 was available with 4 bookmakers (and greater was available on Betfair) – and 7/2 is still available as I write this, 2 hours later…

I guess the main tip won’t have come as a big surprise to many of you – though you may be curious as to why I fancy it so much after it’s lamentable run last time out.

So, without further ado, the rationale for today’s bets….

Huntingdon 3:20

Long term TVB followers will doubtless remember Sophonie from last season…

She was trained by Ferdy Murphy then – and I tipped her twice as part of the early bird service…

She lost on both occasions – but I was still adamant that there was a win in her off a handicap mark of 110 or lower…

She transferred into the care of Tom George over the summer and made her debut for him at Exeter in October…

I clearly wasn’t the only one who thought she was well handicapped from last season , as she was backed into 2/1 favouritism that day, from an opening price of 5/1.

She was keen early in that race, but was still tanking entering the home straight.

She looked sure to win, but ultimately, emptied over the last couple of fences and finished third…

With that run under her belt – and over half a mile less – I thought she was a near certainty when she next appeared at Chepstow a fortnight later.

Again, she cruised through the race, but again she found nothing over the last couple of fences and ultimately finished last.

I thought at the time that the run had come too soon – but it would appear that there may have been a different reason for her stopping…

Today Sophonie gets to run in a tongue tie for the first time – which suggests that she has breathing issues.
In one respect, this is great news, as it explains why she folded late on in her last 2 runs. On the flip side, it also suggests that she might have a physical problem – which is never good news…

On balance however, I am prepared to take a positive view of it – plenty of horses improve for the application of a tongue tie and if she is now able to finish her races, she really will take the world of beating today.

My only other slight concern with her is her jumping. She is relatively inexperienced and has not been foot perfect on either of her runs this season.

However, I have a lot of faith in Tom George as a trainer – and in Paddy Brennan as a jockey – and now that they know the mare a little better, I am confident that they will be able to get her to deliver her best.

Looking at today’s rivals, then I also see a big positive in the way the race is likely to unfold…

Ajzal is a confirmed front runner – and Evella is similar. They are likely to blast from the gates and whilst they won’t do each other much good, they should ensure that Sophonie gets to race at a pace that will give her the best chance of settling…

It is difficult to make much of a case for many of her rivals:

I would probably nominate Sawago as the main danger – but not the kind of danger that I will be worried about if Sophonie runs to form.

Bobby Dove is potentially interesting with his feather weight – he is relatively unexposed but will need to show significant improvement if he is to trouble Sophonie.

Memorabilia also has scope for improvement – but I’m quite happy to take him on at the prices…

In short then, I think that if Sophonie’s breathing has been sorted out – and she jumps round cleanly – she will win.

I did actually consider making her a maximum bet at the prices – but I felt that might have been a bit too much of a shock for you all to take !

Instead, we’ll settle for 2pts – and just the 8pt profit if she does manage to deliver ;)

2pt win Sophonie 4/1

Huntingdon  1:50

I think Bertenbar is worth a small risk in this, on her second run for Fleur Hawes…

He made his debut for the stable at Towcester in December, on heavy ground. Towcester is a tough course to get round at the best of times, but heavy ground on your seasonal debut is likely to be a step too far for most animals.

To his credit, Bertenbar ran a really promisingly and was in with every chance until the home straight.

At that that point, he weakened out of proceedings but with the run under his belt I would expect him to last much longer today.

The handicapper has generously dropped him 2lb for that run, which leaves him on a mark just 2lb higher than his last victory.

That she achieved on his penultimate run – which was when he was under the care of Henrietta Knight.

It is generally accepted that Henrietta’s horses weren’t performing at that their best during the final couple of years training, so if Ms Hawes can eak some improvement out of Bertenbar, then he really should go close today…

In a weak race, Glen Countess looks the most potent danger – but at the prices, Bertenbar is the one to be on.

0.5pt win Bertenbar 8/1

Over at Sedgefield, 2 recent tips, Highway Code and Shadows Lengthen, lock horns in the novice chase at 1:10.

I wouldn’t have a strong view on which one will come out on top – and I could easily see them dominating the finish.

The only other one at the meeting that catches my eye, is Along Came Rosie in the handicap hurdle at 2:10…

Off a mark 14lb lower than her chase mark, she looks potentially well handicapped – and the booking of Dougie Costello for his only ride of the day, catches the eye…

She was 14/1 early on – but is now half that price and that looks much nearer the mark…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Race review

Well if I was feeling smug about getting the borderline calls right yesterday, that feeling didn’t last very long…

With hindsight, I should obviously have split stakes on today race at Catterick: I knew that King Fontaine was not guaranteed to run his race – and I’d spent sufficient time on the contest to also know that Chac Du Cadran had a very decent chance.

Of course the rest is history: having travelled well for a circuit, King Fontaine then started to struggle in the holding ground and was eventually pulled up.

Chac Du Cadran meanwhile put up a tremendous effort; jumping from fence to fence and finally seeing off the persistent challenge of Night in Milan.

The winner was 10/1 this morning - but returned a very well backed 11/2 shot.

King Fontaine meanwhile drifted from a best price of 9/1 this morning to 10/1 at the off (14 on BF).

Once again, the market anticipated the outcome…

Even more spectacular, was its reading of the 3:15 race…

Granted there was always the chance that Reasonable Force would drift – but an SP of 25/1 (30+ on BF) positively shouted the likely story long before the tapes went up.

Sure enough, he was settled out the back and was a good 20 lengths a drift of the fourth runner after just 2 fences.

From that point, the gap just grew and he was never sighted with the remotest chance…

Reasonable Force clearly wants a longer trip – but that said, his run today was little more than a public schooling. It will be interesting to see if the official handicapper buys it…

Hopefully tomorrow bring slightly better…

TVB.