Daily write-up - Jan 24th

Just the one NH meeting survives the elements today – at Gowran Park in County Kilkenny.

Furthermore, there is only one race of any real interest – the Thystes Chase.

However, it is a cracking contest – and it wasn’t too difficult for me to find a tip in it…

3:25

Towards the end of November, the Troytown chase was run at Navan…

It is a similar race to the Thystes: a very valuable 3 mile handicap chase.

I tipped 2 horses in the Troytown: Zardsky and Jadanli.

My original plan that day, was to only put up Jadanli each-way, but I had a last minute change of heart.

Today, I’ve stuck to my guns !!

Jadanli ran a cracking race in the Troytown, staying on to finish fourth.

In truth, he never looked likely to win that day – but he would have collected place money, if that had been the call.

I’ll be quite happy with that result today – and in truth, it is probably the most likely outcome.

I think Jadanli has got a chance of winning – assuming the ground is truly bottomless. But in all probability, one or two of the younger, less exposed sorts will prove his master.

Jadanli actually finished an honourable third in this very contest 12 months ago –when he started at odds of 50/1.

That was the first notable form he had shown in some while – but he has been quite consistent since that point.

Despite that, he gets to run off a 2lb lower mark today – so all things being equal, it is difficult to see why he won’t run a very big race.

Jadanli has run twice since the Troytown and whilst both runs might appear a little disappointing, I don’t really think that was the case.

On each occasion, he was tackling a marathon trip – and I don’t think he stays much more than 3 miles.

Certainly, last time out in the Welsh National, he was moving well enough rounding the home turn, but just ran out of steam up the home straight.

Back over a trip that we know he gets; on a course we know he likes and on ground he relishes, I fully expect him to bounce back to the form he showed in the Troytown.

Of course, that still might not be good enough to win the race – and it is interesting to see that connection have re-applied cheek pieces today, presumably in an attempt to eek out a little more improvement. He has also been dropped 4lb in the handicap since that run – which will help. 

If Jadanli proves not quite good enough, there are around half a dozen others, who I think may be capable to taking advantage…

The Willie Mullins trained Bishopsfurze, is the most obvious one to start with. He has a serious engine – but some jumping issues. If Ruby can sort him out, he could be well handicapped, despite carrying top weight.

Son Amix is a similar character. Very talented – but with limited experience over the bigger obstacles. If everything clicks with him, he could make 14/1 look a generous price.

Tullintain finished second in this race last season – a place ahead of Jadanli. There is a 4lb turn around in the weights today – but that should make it very close between the pair of them. His chances must therefore be respected – but at 12/1, he doesn’t have the EW attraction of the selection.

The Westerner Boy and Panther Claw are both young novices with plenty of scope for improvement.

However, I would be more fearful of the enigmatic Outlaw Pete…

He has proved a revelation running over the cross country courses - and on his form in that discipline, he is thrown in today.

He is also potentially well handicapped on the form he showed in the Cork National, in November. He looked likely to win that race, until running out on the approach to the last.

He has been raised 8lb for that run – but a bigger concern is the apparent show of temperament.

If he keeps everything together today, he will take the beating – but he clearly is a little quirky.

I could also see Belle Brook running a big race – and she is fairly priced at around 18/1.

However, on balance, I am happy to go with Jadanli – each way. Safe in the knowledge that there are no reasons why he won’t run a very big race – and if that is the case, I’ll be a little surprised if 4 of his rivals are able to finish in front of him…

0.5pt EW Jadanli 28/1

Here’s to a good afternoon ahead…

TVB.

Review of the day

The predictive powers of pre-race market movements, is an area I’ve touched on a few times lately…

Whilst watching the racing during the afternoon, I invariably keep an eye on Betfair and monitor price fluctuation for the horses I am interested in.

They have always been quite revealing, but over the past few months, they seem to have become unerringly accurate –and scarily extreme !!

I’ll come on to today’s extreme example later – but even todays tip, Etxalar, had it’s fortune told quite accurately by the pre-race market…

When I tipped the horse this morning, it was available at 13 on Betfair (so 12/1).

By lunchtime, it had been backed in to a low of 6.6 (so 11/2).

Admittedly, there was a NR (accounting for around 10%) – but even so, this was quite a strong market move.

To be honest, I wasn’t overly surprised. As I said this morning, a case for it did leap out, so I could understand it being backed…

However, in the 15 minutes prior to the off, the horse started to drift.

And by the time of the off, it could be backed at 14 on Betfair – this is rarely a good sign !

Now, I ‘m not suggesting that anything untoward took place: in the race itself, Etxalar ran as well as I believe he was capable. It’s just that the market seemed to be pretty sure before hand, that this wasn’t going to be good enough.

Unfortunately, his best wasn’t even good enough to get him placed – which was a disappointment.

He eventually plugged on for fifth place – but never looked like threatening Chartreux, who was a quite convincing winner (even if Upham Atom did give him a late scare).

So, back to the extreme market movement…

As I’m sure you will recall, I was half tempted by the chances of Cnoc Seuda this morning – to be placed, at least.

I decided against putting her up because she was only available at 8/1 – and as I thought her an unlikely winner, the place part of the bet would only just have covered the win part – assuming she had finished second (which is what I expected her to do).

First thing, she was available to back at 12 on Betfair. That is a bit longer than the 8/1 with bookmakers – but as Betfair offer win only, that is not too surprising.

What was suspiring however, was that she had drifted out to 22 – with a large amount of money available to back her - half an hour before the off.

That got me suspicious – but it was nothing compared to the drift that followed in the crucial 10 minutes before the off…

At one point she touched 65 on Betfair – yes 65 !!

Now that clearly is crazy – and extremely suspicious.

She did come back in to around 30 at the off – but that is still a ridiculous price about a horse who was 8/1 this morning  - and on ratings the second best horse in the race.

The way she ran didn’t make me feel a whole lot better about things either.

She took up the running early – but was effectively a spent force by half way and pulled up before 4 out.

Episodes like that don’t leave a pleasant taste in the mouth…

Earlier on the card, Quito De La Roc was a surprise winner of the Kinloch Brae.

In theory he was good enough to take the race, but he had been out of form for a good while – and I didn’t expect the 2m4f trip to play to his strengths.

However, under a forceful ride from Paul Townsend, he made all and held off Roi Du Mee quite comfortably.

Joncol ran on to take third place – as I thought he might…

Back over at Wincanton, the market predicted that Ballyalia Man would prevail in the handicap chase – and so it turned out.

And that was despite Definity also being quite strong in the market – and running a fair race.

The 2 of them were pretty much backed to the exclusion of everything else, and at no point during the race did it look like the market was going to be wrong…

It is certainly some tipster this ‘market’ – if we could only harness it’s powers then we really could have something to go to war with !!

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 17th

Apparently there were no significant issues with the weather in Somerset and the meeting at Wincanton takes place as planned.

It is joined by a very decent fixture from Thurles, in Tipperary – and an AW ‘bumpers for jumpers’ card, at Lingfield

I had a number of possible tips for today – but most of them were marginal calls and I’ve ultimately decided on just the one.

Let’s hope I’ve made the right call !

Wincanton 2:50

Just occasionally, the subtle signs make such a racket, they can’t really be considered subtle…!

Etxalar is a case in point, today at Wincanton…

Not only has he been sent on a near 860 mile round trip from his stable in Perth – he is making the journey alone.

Further more, his jockey, Peter Buchanan, is making roughly the same journey, for just the one ride…

With the price of diesel, if they don’t take some price money home, it is going to have been a very expensive trip for them…!

Not that I would ever back a horse simply because of the subtle signs – but they do help.

A case for Etxalar, can also be made from the form book.

Once rated as high as 128 (and competitive off that mark) Etxalar has now fallen to a mark of 106.

Ofcourse, such a fall is invariably caused by a loss of form – and that has been the case with Etxalar. However, there have been signs in his last 2 runs, that things are starting to come back together for him.

On his penultimate outing at Haydock, he finished a creditable sixth behind Monsieur Cadou. He was still in with a chance jumping the second last that day, and only weakened after jumping the final flight.

Pettifour and Dusky Bob finished just in front of him that day: however I think both will struggle to beat him today – particularly the latter, who is 7lb worse off at the weights.

In his most recent outing, Etxalar again shaped with promise in a decent race at Mussleburgh.

He got slightly outpaced at a crucial stage of that race, but was staying on again at the finish. Todays extra 3 furlongs, should be in his favour.

Of his opponents, Chartreux is the one I fear most. He ran very well last time out behind Handy Andy, and could also still be improving.

However, todays marathon trip is an unknown – and he is plenty short enough in the betting…

I also respect the chance of afore mentioned Pettifour. He was a class act over hurdles and is gradually getting things together over fences. He ran really well last time out in the Sussex national – though he did have a hard race that day and it was only 11 days ago.

Whatever, I think the Etxalar will run his race today –and even if those 2 do perform to their optimum, he will still be hard to keep out of the frame.
Therefore, I have decided (rather unusually for me !) to go each-way on the selection – though I am very hopeful that he will be good enough to pick up the main prize.

0.5pt EW Etxalar 12/1 

I was hoping that I might be able to find another tip in the preceding race – but I couldn’t…

The problem is, I think Definity will win, if he is straight – but we have no way of knowing whether this will be the case (though I suspect the market will provide some clues !).

If he isn’t straight, then Fine Parchment will take some stopping off the same mark as the one he was agonisingly beaten off at Taunton.

Ballyalia Man is also of some interest – whilst I wouldn’t rule out a big run from Andreo Bambeleo. He was eye-catching last time at Haydock and if he gets the trip, I could see him going close.

Thurles put on a really good card, the high-light of which, is the group 2 Kinloch Brae chase…

It is a race that I quite wanted to tip in – and I did toy with tipping either Joncol or Rathlin, as I think that a case of sorts can be made for both…

Joncol is a dual grade 1 wining chaser, who was once rated 163. Receiving weight from most of his rivals, it would not surprise me if he were to bounce back to form today.

However, there is also a concern that he is in terminal decline – plus the 2m4f trip would be a bare minimum for him.

I’d love to see him win – but I suspect he will be running on late to claim a place.

Rathlin is a different sort of animal – and he will have no issues with todays trip.

However, the question with him, is whether he is good enough to win at this level.

Davy Russell appears not to think so – as he has deserted him for Roi Du Mee.

I suspect that Rathlin will give a bold sight up front for a good part of the race – but I am not so sure that he will still be there when it matters…

As for the winner of the race: if he stays the trip, Days Hotel will take the beating.

Finally, in the mares chase at 2:40, I was very tempted to tip Cnoc Seoda – each way…

And that was the real issue with the bet. A little like Spring Heeled on Sunday, I would expect her to run well – and be placed – but I really don’t think she will beat Tarla…

The form book says she would have gone close last time out (when they both fell at the final fence !) and the form book is right – but I have little doubt that Tarla is the better animal.

In fact, I think Tarla is potentially a high class animal – and I could easily see her making up into a very useful chaser indeed (something like the Ryanair chase wouldn’t be beyond her abilities – on suitable ground).

Avondhu Lady is another horse I like – and if you can find a bookmaker who will take it, a tricast of Tarla, Cnoc Seoda and Avondhu Lady might be the bet – though it would never be an official tip !!

Here’s to a good day ahead !

TVB.

Race review

No joy this afternoon…

Barlow and Iona Days ran reasonable enough races, but they - like the rest of the field – were completely outclassed by Loch Ba…

When I tipped that one back in November, I said that I thought it might have 20lb in hand of its current handicap mark.

Well, I was wrong !
It ran today off a mark 17lb higher – and the way it bolted up, it probably had 30lb in hand of it’s mark back that day !

It was a seriously impressive performance – and I wouldn’t want to be opposing the horse wherever it ran next. I could easily see it taking a 3 mile handicap at one of the big festivals – possibly even Cheltenham…

In truth, it was just not a performance I could foresee.

It had run relatively disappointingly last time at Ascot and I thought that was as good at it was.

With hindsight, it clearly didn’t perform that day – and maybe the near 2 month absence since that run was telling.

It is also possible that the horse runs best when fresh.

Whatever, it is certainly one to keep a very close eye on…

The ‘right’ horses were also placed, so the form is likely to be strong.

The unexposed pair of Mountianous and Ringa Bay were second and third – with Barlow fourth.

All 3 of these are likely to gain compensation for todays defeat before the season is over (Barlow, possibly over a slightly shorter trip).

Iona Days simply didn’t quite look good enough – but there was little shame in defeat and the way he travelled to the cross fence suggested that he too will be picking up a small race, sooner rather than later…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 16th

Amazingly, Newbury has survived the frost and they put on a fair card this afternoon…

I really thought it was sure to be abandoned, with temperatures dropping well below freezing – but it just shows what they can do nowadays – if they want to…

A couple of weeks ago, meetings were taking place when they looked as if they would be washed away: now they are running on ground that should by rights, be frozen solid.

I dare say the going with be on the crusty side of soft – but so long as it is safe, I have no problem with that ;)

Most of the card is for viewing only - with some interesting novice races and a potentially informative hunter chase. However, the handicap chase at 2:25 is the exception….

An absolutely cracking race – it is difficult to rule out any of the runners with confidence, but I’m hoping we might have some success with a split stake bet….

2:25

When I can’t see much between the runners in a particular race, I invariably gravitate towards the outsiders.

It makes sense really – if you think almost anything can win a race, you may as well side with one at a decent price !

In this particular occasion, I’ve decided to side with 2 at decent prices: Barlow and Iona Days.

Barlow is probably the most interesting – and the one of the pair that I fancy slightly more.

He is an unexposed 6 year old – and today will only be his seventh run under rules (though he has competed in 3 PTP races).

He ran 3 times over hurdles last season: wining his maiden and then run a very good race in a strong handicap at Cheltenham at the end of the season.

After a pipe opener over hurdles in October, he made his chasing debut in a hot novice chase at Kempton in November.

He was ultimately pulled up in that race after a shocking blunder at the third last. However, up to that point, he was more than holding his own with 3 chasers all rated in the 130s…

As if to prove he had been a little unlucky that time, on his next outing Barlow ran a fine third to Godsmejudge at Folkestone.

He travelled like the best horse in the race that day and only gave best to Godsmejudge between the final 2 fences.

The subsequent performance of that one in the Classic Chase at Warwick on Saturday, suggests that Barlow had again run to a 130+ rating.

If that is the case, then he is well handicapped today. He also has plenty of scope for progression.

My biggest concerns with him are his relative inexperience in a such competitive race – and his stamina…

He appeared not to quite get home last time and although he is dropping back in trip by a furlong today, he stamina remains a nagging doubt.

That said, Newbury is a flat track – and a relatively easy 3 miles. So if he is going to get the trip anywhere, it is likely to be here…

The other one I want on side, is Iona Days.

He is more exposed than Barlow – but still looks to be progressing to me…

He ran a fair race on his comeback at Newbury, 6 weeks ago.

He travelled nicely in that race, but ultimately weakened and finished 21 lengths behind the winner Sizing Santiago.

He met Sizing Santiago on his next run at Kempton over Christmas.

On the book, the 6lb turned around in the weights should not have been sufficient for Iona Days to turn the tables on his rival – but he did. That suggests to me that he is still progressing…

Again, he travelled well in that race – but was ultimately no match for the talented but enigmatic, (and appropriately named !) Mister Hyde. 

However, that form looks very strong to me…

In addition to Sizing Santiago (who has been in very good form), Politeo was back in fourth (and on a line through him, Iona Days holds Loc Ba) and Brackloon High was fifth (he subsequently won a decent race at Kempton on Saturday).

Iona Days has the kind of profile and connections that mean he is likely to be over-looked. This is likely to mean that he will start at a bigger price than I believe his form deserves…

Of the others, I respect the chances of Monkerty Tunkerty – but I think he is beatable.

I also respect the chance of Mountainous, but he is far too short a price, bearing in mind the competitive nature of the race and his inexperience.

I’m not getting particularly strong vibes for either of the Henderson horses – whilst Fighting Flynn also looks opposable.

2 others of interest are Allthekingshorses and Alderluck.

The former has a definite chance on his hurdle form of last season – but his jumping hasn’t been good enough this season for me to consider him.
Whilst Alderluck could be the potential fly in the ointment.

He was very heavily backed for an amateurs race at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham in November – but ran most disappointingly…

He has been given 2 months to recover from that run and if connections have sorted out whatever was bothering him – and he runs as well as was apparently expected that day – he could be a danger to everything…

On balance though, I am happy that the 2 we are with, have reasonable chances at decent prices, in what is a very tough race !!

0.5pt win Barlow 12/1

0.25pt win Iona Days 18/1

Here’s hoping for a good day ahead !

TVB.

Race review

One unexpected benefit of tipping, is that it has enabled me to become ‘virtual’ friends with a number guys who I would not otherwise have ‘met’…

As I’ve now been tipping for 3 or 4 years (to a greater or lesser extent) my network of virtual gambling buddies is getting to be quite significant…

One of the first guys that I met through the tipping, was Gags. He and I were members of a private racing forum for a couple of years – and shared views on plenty of races during our time there….

We’ve kept in touch since then – and he is now a subscriber to the TVB service.

He is also quite a keen form student – when time permits – so I’m always keen to hear his thoughts on a race…

Yesterday evening, out of the blue, he sent me a text, saying that he fancied Virginia Ash at Plumpton today.

Now I’ve got to be honest, without that prompt, Virginia Ash simply wouldn’t have been tip today. For a start, I didn’t actually expect the meeting to go ahead – but in addition to that, it wasn’t running in a race that I would have been particularly attracted to any way…

As it happened, I was reasonably familiar with the horse (I backed it when it got beaten at Exeter), so I had a starting point – and the rest, as they say, is history…

Watching the race, I really didn’t think that Virginia Ash had much chance of winning as he simply refused to settle in the early stages.

Running over the longest trip he had ever tackled – and on desperate ground – I was pretty sure that his early exertions would take a toll at the end of the race.

However that was not the case and he battled on valiantly to beat favourite Tidal Dance, with a fair gap back to Hazy Date in third.

The nature of he performance makes me think that he must have had a good deal in hand of his official mark. I suspect the handicapper will react quite harshly to the victory – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him raised around 10lb for the win (he will use the third/fourth placed horses to rate the form). Even so, I could easily see him defying such a hike in the weights – in fact, I think the first 4 home could all prove worth following next time, as this looked quite a strong race…

Half an hour earlier, Simply Wings had powered to a decisive victory in the 2m4f chase.

I didn’t think his form looked quite strong enough for him to prevail – but ultimately, I’m not sure that mattered too much.

What he did do, was act in the ground and jump – and non of his opponents were able to do the same.

One by one, they fell by the wayside, either because of errors – or an inability to act on the ground.

Whether he will be able to follow up off a revised mark, is debatable. That said, his sound jumping and ability to act in heavy conditions, will always stand him in good stead at this time of the year.

So, it was nice to get the week off to a winning start – even if it wasn’t all my own work !

Last week, I felt like we owed Ben Poste a drink – today, I feel like we owe Gags a drink !

If my virtual friendship group ever meets in the real world, it could end up having to buy quite a big round ! Still, if we are all showing a decent profit at that time, I don’t suppose there will be too many complaints ;)

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 14th

Rather surprisingly, they manage to race at Plumpton today – though looking out of my window, I suspect we should make the most of it, as I foresee a few barren days ahead…

I’ve got one tip – and some thoughts on a race that I nearly tipped in !

Let’s hope we can get the week of to a decent start….

3:40

Racing is a funny old game…

The final race at Cheltenham’s new years day fixture, just over 12 months ago, was a bumper…

It was won by a horse called The New One, who was following up a debut victory at Warwick, 6 weeks earlier…

Just 4 lengths behind him in third place that day, was Virginia Ash.

He was making his racecourse debut – and whilst comfortably beaten by The New One, it was a first run, that promised much…

On the journey home, doubtless both sets of connections dreamt about what the future might hold for 2 equally promising horses…

Roll on 12 months…

On Saturday, The New One took apart a decent field in winning the feature Grade 2 novice hurdle at Warwick. His pre-race rating was 143 – his post race rating will doubtless be in the 150s. As a result of that performance, he has been made favourite for the Neptune novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival…

2 days later, Virginia Ash gets to run in a class 4 hurdle at Plumpton on a Monday afternoon.

He has a mark of 103 – and nothing in his hurdling form entitles him to be rated a pound higher than that.

Rarely can 2 apparently similar horses, have charted such vastly different paths in such a short period of time.

And yet, initially at least, it didn’t look as if that would be the case.

Virginia Ash won on his second outing – and then contested the bumper at the Cheltenham festival. He was well beaten there, but there was little disgrace in that.
His final outing of the season was in a bumper at the Fairyhouse Easter festival. He finished 6^th of 19 in that – which again was a reasonably meritorious performance.

However, this season, the wheels have apparently come off and he has been unsighted in 3 novice hurdles.

First time out, he was quite well fancied at Wincanton, but jumped with no fluency and was soon struggling.

On his second outing at Exeter, he jumped better, but seemed to lack the pace required to lie up. In fairness, that was a decent contest, so there was little shame in finishing fifth.

His most recent outing saw a change in tactics and he was allowed to race more prominently.

This is often a tactic employed by connections who want to get their charges a good handicap mark. If the horse races prominently and then is allowed to weaken, there can be little doubt that it has run it’s best – and so the handicapper has to judge it on it’s finishing position. If the horse is never put in the race, the handicapper tends to be a little more suspicious !

Anyway, Virginia Ash raced prominently – and jumped much better than he had done previously – but he was ultimately well beaten.

The handicapper seems to have used that run to give him a mark…

And who knows, that mark might be absolutely right. The horse may have very limited ability and may spend the next few years trundling round small tracks in low grade races – but that didn’t appear likely to be the case 12 months ago…

If Virginia Ash is ever going to bounce back to form, it is likely to be today…

Based on his run in the Cheltenham bumper, if The New One was running in this race today, he would be carrying around 11st12lb. I do not exaggerate when I say that in that scenario, I don’t think the bookies would be prepared to price up the race !

There is little doubt in my mind, that connections will be having a real go today. The application of cheek pieces for the first time is a definite statement of intent.

There is a slight danger that even if Virginia Ash does show massive improvement, he still might not be good enough to cope with the even more unexposed Tidal Dance - but that is a chance we will just have to take.

Similarly, there is a possibility that neither of them will fulfil their potential and one of the more exposed runners will take advantage.

So, in short, he is no good thing…

However, if he does manage to recapture the form he showed last January – then I think he will take the world of beating – and 11/2 will look a very good price indeed…

0.5pt win Virginia Ash 11/2

The other race that I was interested in on the Plumpton card, was the proceeding 2m4f chase…

I was initially drawn to Simply Wings, on the back of an impressive win in a novice chase at Towcester and a fair run when a beaten favourite at Cheltenham.

He was 11/2 yesterday evening, which seemed a reasonable price – so I was certainly considering him as a tip.

However, the more I looked at his form, the more concerned I became.

His win at Towcester was visually impressive – but I’m not sure he beat anything. Similarly, he appeared to run well at Cheltenham, but everything from that race that has subsequently run, has been beaten.

In summary, his form looks questionable.

The other issue I have with him (and this supports the first point), is that he has come up short in handicaps off this mark in the past. The suggestion therefore, is that this mark represents the ceiling of his current ability.

Time will tell I guess…

With him out of the race, I see Midnight Sail as the most likely winner – with No No Bingo a possible danger. Unfortunately, those 2 are first and second favourite – so there is no obvious angle…

Worse still, I couldn’t completely write off Firebird Flyer or Delganny Gunner, so it had to be a no bet race…

If by any chance, Midnight Sail drifted to around 4/1, then I would be interested (3/1 seems about right for him).

Here’s hoping for a good day ahead…

TVB.