Daily write-up - Dec 15th

There are 3 domestic NH meetings tomorrow at Cheltenham, Lingfield and Doncaster – plus a meeting in Ireland at Fairyhouse…

We know precisely where we stand ground wise at both Cheltenham and Lingfield – the going will be on the desperate side of heavy !

The ground is currently described as ‘good’ at Doncaster – but I am very doubtful it will remain that way, with rain lashing down across the country.

Consequently, I have am leaving Doncaster alone this evening – but I will re-assess tomorrow lunchtime and if the ground is still decent, I may tip in one of the later races on the card.

I am also leaving Fairyhouse alone. As has been the case a few times recently with the Irish racing – it looks a card to watch rather than bet in…

As you would expect, the majority of my attention has been focused on the Cheltenham card – though I have to say it is quite disappointing…

Maybe the ground is a factor – I’m not sure – but it is rare for Cheltenham to put on a feature card, where over half the races make slim appeal from a betting perspective.

However, being the professional I am ( ;) ) I will still diligently work my way through the card and try to offer a few pointers along the way.

12:10

To all intents and purposes, this looks a 2 horse race between Far West and Handazan…

The two met at Chepstow in October and Far West came out on top that day by 12 lengths.

The tendency is to think that Far West should be the superior again tomorrow – though a 4lb pull in the weights for Handazan and the very heavy ground , could make things a little more interesting…

If there is to be an upset, Tidal Way looks the only one capable of providing it. However his form does leave him a fair way shy of the two principals…

Provided the 5 runners stand their ground, then at 4/1, a quarter the odds a place, Handazan looks an EW bet to nothing. However, I suspect you will ultimately only be payed on the place part of it…

12:45

Another disappointing turn out and the race looks to be at the mercy of Our Father, who was so impressive at the last Cheltenham meeting…

That said, I don’t think he is completely bomb proof…

He was receiving weight from most of his rivals when winning last time – whereas tomorrow he has to concede weight all round.

Also, he hasn’t got the most consistent of profiles, so can’t be totally relied upon to reproduce his running.

Finally, whilst he clearly handles the soft, tomorrow’s ground could be quite extreme…

The problem however, is finding one to take him on with.

Highland Lodge has solid form and would be the logical choice for the forecast. However one that might surprise at a big price is Best Served Cold.

He will have no issue with the conditions and is still young enough and unexposed enough, to have scope for improvement.

As he is a Gigginstown owned horse, it might have been nice to see Davy Russell riding him – but Adrian Heskin is a more than capable substitute.

He has also got a trainer in Michael Hourigan who knows precisely how to train staying chasers. He had a lot of joy with Beef or Salmon about a decade ago and more recently with Church Island.

Interestingly, that one was successful in a novice chase at Cheltenham when relatively unfancied – let’s hope that Best Served Cold can repeat the feat tomorrow.

0.25pt EW Best Served Cold 25/1

1:20

I’ll be a little surprised if this race isn’t won by one of three horses: Shooters Wood, Garynella or Pepite Rose.

In fairness, non of them are absolutely guaranteed to run their race (owing to the heavy ground) – but that said, they strike me as more likely to do so than most other members of the field…

For starters, I couldn’t entertain Oiseau De Nuit on this ground, with 11st12lb on his back. I’m a big fan of the horse – but that will surely be too much of  a burden.

I’m also a fan of Oh Crick – but he has always shown a preference for better ground.

Similarly the ground would be a major concern for West with the Wind, Lancetto and Imperial Shabra.

In truth, it could be an issue for both Shooters Wood – and Pepite Rose.

Shooters Wood was certainly disappointing the last time he encountered soft ground – and whilst his form since that point has improved markedly, you couldn’t say with confidence that his improvement wasn’t down to running on better ground. If he does handle the conditions tomorrow, he is definitely the one to beat.

Garynella should handle the conditions – but this is his British debut so he is a real unknown quantity. I might have been prepared to take a chance on him at a price – but that price would have been bigger than 4/1.

Instead I’ll take a chance on Pepite Rose.

Based on her last time out performance you would say that she wouldn’t handle the ground either – however she was twice successful on heavy ground over hurdles, so maybe her poor last time out run at Ascot was caused by something else.
Certainly if you took that run out of her record, then these is no way she would be 8/1 tomorrow.

She was very progressive over fences last season and her debut this season suggested she was going to continue along the same path.

The only other member of the field who might appreciate tomorrow’s conditions, is His Excellency.
However he is quite an enigmatic character – and whilst he could run a big race, he could just as easily not complete.

At the prices, I don’t think he is quite worth the risk.

0.5pt win Pepite Rose 17/2

1:55

The figures say that Coneygree is going to take a bit of beating tomorrow – and in conditions that he should relish, I struggle to disagree with them…

He was certainly very impressive when romping to victory at the November meeting and with a month to recover from those exertions, I suspect it could be the same tomorrow.

The betting says that his biggest danger is likely to be According to Trev. However Coneygree had that one well beaten in third place when successful last time.

Aerial presents a theoretical danger based on his chase form – though whether he can be as effective over the smaller obstacles is a different matter.

Ardkilly Witness looks the most interesting of the others as he has some half decent form and potential for improvement. At 18/1, he looks a reasonable EW shout.
However, if it is the winner you are after, then even at 11/10, I think Coneygree would have to be the call.

2:30

The big race of the day – and unlike majority of the card, this one doesn’t disappoint…

As was the case with the Paddy Power Gold Cup, I can see this being a war of attrition in the heavy ground – so you really need something that will relish the conditions.

It doesn’t matter which way I look at the race however, I think the most solid play by a long way, is the favourite, Walkon.

He finished runner up last time out in the Paddy Power Gold cup, beaten 3 lengths by Al Ferof in receipt of 16lb.

However there was absolutely no disgrace in that defeat as the third place horse was 12 lengths further back – and the winner is now second favourite for the King George chase.
Walkon has been raised 5lb for that run – but if he runs to the same level tomorrow, I doubt that will be sufficient to stop him winning.

Two Paul Nicholls horses: Unioniste and Cristal Bonus, head the dangers. Of the two, I prefer the claims of the latter – but he has a lot on trying to give Walkon 9lbs.

I wouldn’t be too surprised to see an outsider run well in the race and I considered a few different options.

If Renard gets the trip, I could see him running a decent race; whilst Hells’ Bay is very well weighted if he handles the ground; I could also see Tatenen performing well in the colours of the sponsors of the race.

However the one that I think could be potentially very interesting at a price, is Micheal Flips.

He has plenty of very good form to his name from last season, including a second to For No Stop and a fourth to Sir Des Champs at the festival.

He has been a little disappointing on his 3 runs so far this season  - but there have been mitigating circumstances for each.

He is now on a mark 4lb lower than he started the season, which should make him competitive.

The very heavy ground is a worry – but he has form in similar conditions, so I am prepared to take the risk at the price.

I also like the booking of 7lb claimer James Best. In these top handicaps securing the services of a talented amateur is often a very shrewd move.

Let’s hope it proves to be the case this time…

0.5pt win Walkon 5/1

0.25pt EW Micheal Flips 25/1

3:05

Whilst this should be an interesting race to watch – and potentially informative with regard to the Champion hurdle – it is difficult to see an angle into it from a betting perspective…

With race fitness and in receipt of 4lb from his 2 main rivals, it is difficult to argue with Zarkandars position as race favourite. 5/4 looks a little tight – but only a shade.

Furthermore, there is no margin in the prices of either Rock on Ruby or Grandouet at 9/4 and 5/2 respectively…

Ultimately it may all come down to who handles the conditions best –and which jockey rides the best race.

The trouble is, you are looking at 3 of the best jockeys in the game – and nobody can be sure which horse will best handle the conditions until around 3:15 tomorrow.

All in all then, a race that is very easy to pass on from a betting perspective – but one which should non-the less prove fascinating to watch.

3:40

As with the previous race, this is not a contest in which you can really have a bet…

Oscar Whisky looks pretty much bomb proof – but that is precisely what you would expect from a horse priced at 1/5.

He should handle the ground; is happy to make his own running and has plenty in hand of his two rivals at the weights…

All things being equal he should win – and win quite comfortably.

In addition to the tips at Cheltenham, there is a further tip in the handicap chase at Lingfield…

2:55

I must admit that I expected Rigadin De Beauchene to be priced up lower than he was this evening…

I acknowledge that the race is not a formality – and that his jumping comes with definite risks – but all the same I expected him to be put in a fair bit shorter than 5/1…

Certainly, anyone who saw his run last time out, must have marked him down as a horse to be interested next time out.

That run took place in a decent chase at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting. Rigadin was just about to take up the running there and was still going easily, when he made a shocking blunder at the fourth last fence.

His rider did well to stay on board that day and he literally lost a dozen lengths and all momentum. It therefore says much for both his ability and his attitude that he was able to gather himself together and briefly looked like he still might grab a most improbably victory.

Ultimately, it was not to be. However he was only beaten 3 lengths at the line – far less than the ground he lost with the mistake.

Rigdin gets to run off the same mark tomorrow – and bearing in mind that the winner of that race has been raised 4lb for his success, that makes Rigadin looked well handicapped.

Ofcourse, he will have to avoid making a similar mistake tomorrow - and he is prone to them – but if he can jump round cleanly, I think he will take all the beating..

Nodebataboutit and African Broadway potentially look his most dangerous rivals. However, the former has a long absence to overcome; whilst the latter was disappointing on his latest run. In short, neither look rock solid.

0.75pt win Rigan De Beauchene 5/1

As a final reminder, there is a possibility that I might want to issue a further tip for the meeting at Doncaster tomorrow afternoon.

If this is the case, I will be in touch early in the afternoon.

Here’s to a great day ahead.

TVB.