It’s the final day of the 2 Christmas festival meetings in Ireland at Leopardstown and Limerick – whilst in the UK, they race at Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso…
Today’s Leopardstown card is the weakest of the week. The grade 1 hurdle looks like a formality for Hurricane Fly – whilst the supporting races hardly get the pulse racing…
Still, I can’t complain too much – the previous 3 days racing have been outstanding…
There is nothing much doing at Limerick or Kelso either, so I have turned to Newbury and Doncaster for today’s tips…
Newbury 12:30
I spent quite a lot of time turning round this race last night – and got it down to 2 runners: Arbeo and Simply Ben…
Simply Ben probably has the better form of the 2. If you look back through his record (both over fences and over hurdles) he has run against some serious animals.
His last time out third, behind Highland Lodge and Our Father in a grade 2 chase at Cheltenham is a case in point.
True he was beaten a long way that day, but he also finished in a fair way in front of a couple of horses rated in the 130s. Running today off a mark of 117, he looks potentially well handicapped on the basis of that run…
The danger is reading the result of a 5 runner race too literally. If the 2 horses he beat under-performed, then the form is worthless.
That said, his earlier form backs up the suggestion that, at very least, he is not badly handicapped – and I suspect he has scope for improvement…
However ,Arbeo could potentially be very well handicapped.
He gets to run off a mark of just 104 – and that looks generous based on his run at Plumpton.
He fell 4 out in that contest, but was still going well and it is easy to think that he would have run rivals rated significantly higher, very close.
His subsequent run at Fakenham doesn’t contradict that either. Ok, he was beaten by a rival rated 110 – but he had a couple of 110 rated runners behind.
My suspicion is that both he and the winner, ran closer to a rating of 120 that day…
If that is the case, he has the best part of a stone in hand of his current handicap mark and that will make his very hard to beat today…
The other thing that tips me in favour of Arbeo today, is that he has a relatively light weight to carry.
As we know, the way the ground is currently riding at most tracks, stamina is at an absolute premium and the less weight a horse has to carry, the better…
A split stake bet then – with the balance tipped in favour of Arbeo seemed the most sensible way forward…
0.5pt win Arbeo 13/2
0.25pt win Simply Ben 15/2
Newbury 2:10
I was initially attracted to Mark the Book in this race…
Followers from last season will recall that he was a wining early bird tip at Chepstow and off a mark just 3lb higher today – on ground he will love – he had to be of some interest…
However, he is horse who has been beset with physical problem and watching the way he capitulated when passed last time out, it would be very difficult to support him today…
That said, I still felt that the betting for this race had a lob-sided look to it, with the top 3 in the market put in shorter than I think is warranted…
The question was what to take them on with – and the answe appeared in the form of Midnight Haze…
Although his form figures don’t look too inspiring, Midnight Haze’s last 4 runs have not been on conventional courses.
He has raced twice over the Aintree fences (including in the Grand National) and twice over the Cheltenham cross country course.
In fairness, he’s generally not performed too badly – though you are obviously looking at very big fields and high attrition rates in those types of contests, so his form figures don’t really provide a fair representation.
The last time Midnight Haze ran at a conventional course, he won. Not only that, he won very easily – and off a mark only 2lb lower than he gets to race off today.
What’s more, he will handle today’s’ heavy ground, will stay the trip - and shouldn’t have an issue lugging his big weight (he has successfully carried similar weight in the past).
So, all in all, his case is a fair bit stronger than it initially appears…
One concern I do have, is that his best form seems to be at Ludlow, which is a sharp right handed track. Today he is running at Newbury, which is a big left handed track…
That said, he has shown himself adaptable enough to jump round Aintree so I can’t see why it should be a significant issue.
If that is the case, then I see no reason why Midnight Haze won’t run a very big race today – and he certainly looks significantly over-priced to me…
0.5pt win Midnight Haze 25/1
Doncaster 2:55
This looks a very competitive race – but I’m hoping that Safran De Cotte may prove different class to today’s opposition…
He was a fair novice hurdler, but he really made his mark in a strong handicap hurdle at Haydock last December.
That race was run on desperate ground and Safran De Cotte simply took apart a field of top class handicappers, including the likes of Across the Bay, Attaglance, Reindeer Dippin, Son of Flicka, Houblon Des Obeaux – and others. It was a really impressive performance – and the key to it seemed to be the ground, which Safran De Cotte relished…
He was sent off favourite for his final 3 runs of last season - on the back of that win – but he didn’t manage to repeat the performance…
This season, his attentions were switched to fences and he won a decent novice chase on his seasonal debut beating the subsequently successful Godsmejudge.
His second (and most recent) outing was at Haydock, where he finished a distant third behind a couple of high-class rivals.
However, he lost nothing in that defeat and the suggestion is that, over fences, he is at least going to be able to match his performances over hurdles…
That being the case, he should go very close today. He will be cherry ripe; competing in ideal conditions – and off a mark hat should be well within his capabilities.
Provided his jumping holds up, I can see no reason why he shouldn’t go very close.
Plenty of his rivals can be given a chance - and if he doesn’t perform, I wouldn’t have a strong view on who will come out on top.
However, if he does perform, I think all of his rivals will have to go some to beat him.
0.5pt win Safran de Cotte 15/2
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead – with a little slice of luck along the way ;)
TVB.
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