Just Ascot and Haydock have survived the weather and race today – though whether either meeting will run to it’s planned conclusion is a different matter.
I’ve got 4 tips – though I only expect 3 of them to run (!) but I’ve kept stakes small due to the uncertainty…
The write-up is also shorter than I would normally produce on a Saturday as I’ve had to do it very quickly. Furthermore, I’ve only commented on the races in which I’ve tipped.
All in all, not ideal – but the weather has kind of forced my hand…
Anyway, on to the rationale for the tips – starting at Haydock…
2:15
This looks a tricky race to call…
I was initially drawn to Cannington Brook – but although he should thrive in the conditions, his last time out run was disappointing and he will need to leave that behind to win here…
Quincy Des Picton could also be interesting, after a decent comeback run over course and distance. There has to be a question mark however, over whether he is sufficiently well handicapped to win a race of this nature.
Merry King has solid form and is young enough to still be improving – but his price is short for one who still has quite a lot to prove.
The other one of significant interest is Mac Aeda. However, Pricewise selecting him this morning took a fair bit of the juice out of his price – and he was a little disappointing last time…
Carrickboy was also disappointing last time – but that was over the Grand National fences, so I think that run can be ignored.
On his previous outing, he had run well at Ascot and he gets to run off a 2lb lower mark today.
It is debatable whether he will relish today conditions – but he has won in the heavy. It is also debatable whether he is a fan of Haydock, as he has been pulled up on his 2 previous visits !
However, that could just have been coincidence, as Haydock isn’t really the sort of course that horses love or hate.
In terms of positives, then until Carrickboy disappointed at Haydock last spring, he had very much looked like a horse on an upward curve. There have been legitimate reason for his disappointing runs since, so a 7lb drop in his handicap mark (to a mark only 3lb above his last wining mark) looks generous.
It’s impossible to be adamant that any horse will act in today’s conditions, but 3 miles on heavy doesn’t look as if it should present a problem.
And ofcourse, Carrickboy represents our favourite connections of Venetia Williams and Aiden Colemen (plus owner Trevor Hemmings, who loves to target his horses at Haydock and Aintree).
All in all then, not a solid bet – but a value one at the prices…
0.5pt win Carrickboy 12/1
2:50
I am pretty keen on Arctic Ben in this particular contest.
He should be close to peak fitness, after a couple of reasonably promising runs so far this season – and he will love the heavy ground.
There is also a chance that he will get an uncontested lead at a track where front-runners tend to do well. He already has joint bottom weight, but the booking of Jake Greenhall takes a further 3lb off his back and in today’s conditions, that could be invaluable…
However, there are 2 reasons why he was only staked at 0.5pt: firstly the presences of Kudu Country; and second the price…
I think Kudo Country has the potential to be a very decent chaser. His form last season stands up to the closest scrutiny and he should also handle the heavy ground.
It is quite probably that he needed his seasonal debut run and if that has brought him on, he is likely to prove a formidable opponent.
I am swayed to Artic Ben because he carries nearly a stone less weight; and because he might get the run of the race up front – but I can’t be overly confident.
I’ll be surprised if one the two doesn’t prove good enough today.
With regard to the price, then although I wasn’t overly happy with 5/1, I suspect only a few of you will have got that as you now can’t beat 7/2 !
Getting ‘value’ prices gets harder and harder, as the bookmakers tactic of pricing up the races overnight whilst taking peanuts on them, means they have a very accurate tissue when they open up in the morning.
Still, there is not a lot we can do about it – we just have to play (or pass) at the odds available at the time I issue the tips. And I felt that Arctic Ben was still worth a play at the best of this mornings prices…
0.5pt win Arctic Ben 5/1
And now to Ascot…
3:10
This looks ferociously competitive - and a case can be made for a dozen or so of the runners…
However, at a price, I think it is worth a small play on Double Ross.
After starting this campaign over fences, he switched back to hurdles at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham in November and promptly routed a decent field of novices.
That race was over 2m5f but he led all the way and I’ll be surprised if he lacks the tactical pace required over todays 2 mile trip.
Certainly his ability to stay beyond 2 miles should be an asset – as should his ability to handle bottom-less conditions…
Following his Cheltenham victory, he ran again at Haydock just 6 days later in an equally competitive contest.
For most of the race, he looked like repeating his Cheltenham performance and he was still 4 lengths clear when he crashed through the final hurdle.
However, that mistake proved very costly and he emptied quickly up the run in, eventually finishing fourth.
He was raised 5lb for that run, which superficially looks little harsh – but I suspect it could end up looking lenient.
I would expect Sam Twiston Davies to try and make all on him again today – at a sedate pace – and then try to quicken from the home turn.
The race will doubtless end up a slog and racing prominently should be advantage.
In terms of his opponents then I would expect Olofi to run another very big race – and Cause of Causes looks over priced.
However there are also half a dozen other runners who are unexposed enough to show massive improvement on what they’ve done previously.
Not a race to be confident in, but one where I think Double Ross has a decent chance at a big price.
0.5pt win Double Ross 16/1
3:40
I was quite keen to take on Ulck Du Lin today..
He has to carry quite a big weight for a 4 year old – and at 6/4 on heavy ground makes very little appeal..
The trouble is trying to find one to take him on with.
I could have been quite keen on Majala – but he is running at Haydock instead (it was always his first preference but he has only just been taken out of the Ascot race).
With him out of the race, opposing Ulk Du Lin looks more difficult.
I don’t think conditions will be ideal for either Gus Macrae or Falcon Island – and whilst I can understand the money for Vino Griego, I would like to see him do it before backing him at 5/1…
The potentially interesting one could be El Lobo – but I would want to see money come before I would be prepared to support him…
Here’s hoping for a decent day.
TVB.
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