AW racing dominates today – with just the single NH meeting at Catterick.
As it’s not a course that I’m particularly fond of, I expected today to be a no tip day – but when I saw the declarations for the 2:15, I knew that wasn’t going to be the case !
Not only is it the race of the day – it is probably the race of the week !
I turned it round plenty of times – and could justify an interest in 3 or 4 of the runners - but ultimately, I kept on coming back to an old friend…
2:15
Even if King Fontaine wins today, I’m going to view it as a bit of an opportunity lost…
In ideal circumstances, today’s race would be run on quick ground – and we would have got 20/1 about him because everyone else had given up on him.
In that scenario, he would be a near maximum bet…
As it is, today’s race will be run on ground softer than ideal – and his price has already been cut in half to a best 9/1.
Yet despite this, I just can’t let him pass…
Simply, this horse will win sooner rather than later – and that may well be today.
The reason is that he is spectacularly well handicapped – and in fair form.
When you consider that I could have been pretty sweet on him on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham (if the ground had not gone against him) – and that he was running off an 8lb higher mark, you will maybe understand why I think he is well handicapped today.
Just 4 runs ago, he finished third in Scottish Grand National, off a mark effectively 13lb higher. So today, he is running in a weaker race; off a mark nearly a stone less – and yet he was almost able to win that contest (his stamina ultimately gave out).
There are 2 issues with King Fontaine: his jumping and his need for decent ground.
In truth, there is nothing we can do about his jumping – we just have to hope, that like Valmari yesterday, he jumps well enough for it not to compromise his chances.
The ground is a massive frustration. He needs decent ground and he just isn’t getting it. As a result however, his handicap mark continues to tumble – and he will eventually find ground that he is prepared to operate on.
Whether that will be today, only time will tell.
The official ground description is ‘Soft – with Good to Soft patches’. We’ll only really know what that means once the racing is underway.
If he handles it OK – and his jumping holds up, I think he will win – it’s as simply as that.
If that doesn’t happen, then we have an open and enthralling contest in prospect !
In that scenario, Chac Du Cadron is the one I would be most interested in – though Night in Milan would also hold some appeal…
Hopefully that won’t be the case however, and one of those 2 will just follow home King Fontaine - at a respectable distance.
0.5pt win King Fontaine 9/1
The other horse I was half interested in today, was Reasonable Force – who is the outsider in the 3:15 race…
Part of the reason why he is relatively unfancied, is because his stablemate, Brave Spartacus, is a 1/2 shot in the race.
In truth, that does put me off him a bit because I can’t quite figure out what connections are doing.
He is also running over a trip which I suspect may be short of his best…
I fear that the object of the exercise might simply be to reduce the handicap rating of Reasonable Force – and consequently, I am leaving him alone.
However, he jumped immaculately on his chasing debut and if he is able to do the same today at a slightly quicker pace, I think he will go very well.
My suggestion would be to watch the market. If he is sent off around the 6/1 mark, then he might well be worth an interest…
Here’s hoping for a good day ahead !
TVB.
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