Daily write-up - Jan 12th

There are a total of 4 NH meetings taking place today: at Kempton, Warwick, Wetherby and Punchestown…

Noting caught my eye at either of Wetherby or Punchestown, so I focused my efforts on Kempton and Warwick.

It’s funny how on some days, the tips/bets jump out at you, whilst on others, finding anything is a real struggle. Well, today definitely fell into the latter category..!

Ever the professional though, I spent a lot of time last night diligently trying to find bets and my thoughts – along with the bets I did find – are detailed below…

Starting with the meeting at Kempton:

2:05

I initially thought that this was a perfect race for me…

A relatively small field chase, where I would be able to eliminate a few of the runners – and find a bit of value in the remainder.

However, it soon became clear, that nothing was actually capable of winning it ! - which made finding a tip a bit tricky !!

By elimination, Bally Legend is the most likely to be first home – but he sets a standard that I suspect something will surpass…

If Triangular bounces back to form, he could win – but it would take an act of faith to support him.

Furthermore, he is comfortably held on last years running by Cruachin – but he couldn’t possibly be supported on the back of any of his runs since then.

On quicker ground, Wessex King would be the one. However, he doesn’t like the soft – and his handicap mark is too tight to take a risk.

The others are either hopelessly out of form; not good enough or under-priced (in some cases a combination of all 3 !).

Perhaps now you can see why I chose to give the race a wide berth…

2:40

I’m quite keen to take on the top 3 in the market here…

They all represent Henderson/Nicholls and have been priced accordingly. However all 3 have question marks in my mind: either their handicap marks; the reliability of their form; or the jockey booking…

Instead, I’ve opted for a split stake bet across a couple of our old friends: Buck Magic and Captain Sunshine…

I’m keenest n Buck Magic, who is still a relatively unexposed hurdler and looks to have been laid out for this following his victory at Cheltenham in November…

That was a really competitive race and he ground out a victory in hugely tenacious style.

An 8lb rise is probably not beyond him and it puts him just in the handicap proper, on 10st…

The booking of Dougie Costello is also very eye-catching. He rides most of Mulhollands best horses – but I do think his powerful style will be very well suited to the horse.

If they have a chance jumping the last, I think they will take some stopping…

Captain Sunshine let us down the last time we supported him – but I’m happy to just view that as a blip…

On the rest of his form he looks a very decent and progressive animal.

It is very interesting to note that on his hurdling debut, he was beaten ¾ of a length by Back Thunder when racing off level weights. He gets 13lb off that horse today – and yet is more than double the price.

Of course a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, but it is an interesting form line…

2 things slightly trouble me about Captain Sunshine however: firstly, his ability to act on soft ground; and secondly the jockey booking of Richie McLernon. 

That said, it is impossible to know just how soft the ground is – and McLernon isn’t a bad jockey – just a slightly strange booking.

Based on from/profile, I would give Captain Sunshine a very good chance and therefore he is worth a small bet at the prices…

0.5pt win Buck Magic 12/1

0.25pt win Captain Sunshine 14/1

3:15

Kingsmere is just about my best bet of the day. That said, he is running in a competitive race and is no certainty !

I have some concerns about him getting the trip on softish ground – and I would prefer to see him carrying a little less weight – but if that were the case, we wouldn’t be getting 10/1 on him !

On the plus side, he is a progressive young chaser, haling from an in form stable.

Last time out, he ran really well in the Paddy Power Gold cup. He was still in with a chance at the top of the hill, but gradually weakened out of things on the run to the second last and was eventually pulled up.

Although that race was over half a mile less than todays, it was run on very heavy ground and at a frenetic pace. With less pace and on better ground, I think Kingsmere has a much better chance of getting home.

In fact he has got 3 miles a number of times in the past (admittedly on decent ground) and as he is from the same family as the smart stayer Mighty Man, the trip alone, shouldn’t be an issue. 

The ground might be – but hopefully it will be fast enough for him to get away with it…

Of the others, Baile Anrai is probably the most interesting (and I did consider a saver on him). That said, he looks best in very small fields and has to bounce back from a disappointing seasonal reappearance last time out…

Golden Chieftain has the ability to be able to defy top eight – if on his best form. Whilst at the other end of the handicap, Handtheprizeover is justifiably favourite and will take the beating…

0.5pt Kingsmere 10/1

3:50

I was half tempted by Starluck in this race – and if the 16/1 available last night had still been there this morning, he might well have been a tip.

That said, he would have been a risky tip…

Whilst he is tumbling down the handicap; will be suited by the course and the addition of blinkers is an interesting move; he has shown precious little for a long time, including last time out at Sandown.

The other one of potential interest, was Turn Over Sivola. He was disappointing last time at Cheltenham, but the Kempton track should suit him better today.

However, neither horse was really at a price where it warranted taking on favourite, Forgotten Voice, who based on flat form, could be different class to the rest of the field…

Over to Warwick…

1:15

I got very close to tipping Jumps Road in this – but I just couldn’t make a sufficiently compelling case…

To a large extent, it was based around issues I have with his rivals:

Kapga De Cerisy is very short in the betting – and I suspect wants a little further…

Rody took a whopping rise in the weights for his win last time and has it all to do under top weight…

Eastlake is not entirely convincing over fences…

Whilst the others still have to improve to reach the require standard.

However, Jumps Road himself has a bit to prove following his lacklustre run last time – and is from a stable that is struggling for a bit of form… 

If he handles the ground OK and gets into a rhythm jumping, then I think he could be the one to beat. But there are too many question marks considering he is only an 8/1 shot…

2:25

An absolute minefield !!

I’ll offer you 2 against the field in Hada Men and Holywell…

The latter is by far the more solid – and I would expect him to run into a place, at least.

He has been raised 5lb for a courageous run last time out – but that is offset by the claim of Maurice Linenhan.

He has everything in his favour and should run a big race.

The issue is simply the price and the opposition (which could literally be anything !).

Hada Men is a lot more risky – and has no chance on recent form.
However, he looked very decent last season and has dropped 4lb this season on the back of 2 disappointing runs. I think the step up in trip will suit him and he could be worth a small play at big odds…

3:35

I’m putting Benheir up in this race, simply because I think he represents ‘value’ in a very open looking contest…

He is a young, unexposed, progressive chaser – who seems to stay all day.

His last 2 runs have been very merit worthy. A defeat of Master Neo at Ffos Las; and a second to the back to form Carruthers, at the same track.

His rating of 137 looks a touch high to me – but Patrick Corbett will take off 7lb, which will help.

I can see him running a big race and would have expected him to be around half the price that was available this morning…

In terms of the most likely winner of the race, then I would probably nominate either Rigadin De Beauchene or Flying Award.

They will both be helped by having to carry feather weights over this marathon trip.

Rigadin is probably the most likely winner, as he is very well handicapped.

However, he is not guaranteed to stay the trip – and there must be a chance that he will take a liberty with at least one of the fences.

One thing’s for sure backing him is not for the faint hearted !

Flying Award has to prove he is up to this class – but he is progressing nicely and certainly worth his place in the line up.

All this said, in a race where it is difficult to eliminate many, Benheir looks like the value call – to a small stake.

0.25pt EW Benheir 22/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.