I’ve been tipping for just over 2 months now - and I can honestly say that today is the first time during that period, when I feel that things have really gone my way…
Firstly, I was in two minds on whether to tip at all today. If I wasn’t returning from 10 days off, then I could easily have given it a miss; secondly, I toyed with alternate horses in both the races – and certainly considered a couple of savers – but I decided to just stick with the 2 original tips; and thirdly, both horses got the rub of the green during the race – each looking far more likely to lose than win at various points…
For once, we were on the right side of a number of fine lines…!
Toby Belch made hard work of getting on top at Doncaster – but I think that is simply his way…
As I said this morning, I suspect he is a lazy horse and so I wasn’t overly concerned when I saw his jockey getting to work on him a fair way from home.
I think it is fair to say that ‘Choc’ gave him a very good ride – I was certainly pleased to see him opt to ride the horse prominently and thereby keep him interested from the off.
Ofcourse, the other thing I was keen on seeing this morning, was market support – and that materialised. The 10/1 this morning had turned into 11/2 at the off – and whilst I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him go off even shorter, he was strong enough in the market for me to be relatively confident that he was going to be sufficiently fit to do himself justice.
The way the race fell apart is likely to mean that the handicapper won’t be overly harsh on him – and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him defy a rise of 4 or 5lb next time out…
Valmari also came in for market support at Ludlow and she was eventually sent off a 2/1 shot.
In truth though, market support for her wasn’t really that important. Her form was there for all to see and - as I said this morning – if she jumped round OK and ran to form, she was likely to win…
Well, she did jump round OK – but only just !
Quite how 7lb claimer Ben Poste managed to stay on board when she ploughed through the sixth fence, I really don’t know.
He lost his irons in the incident, but had them back by the following fence.
In truth, the mistake didn’t seem to take that much out of her (I’ve seen her make similar mistakes in previous races) – and so long as she didn’t repeat I was always reasonably optimistic that her class would see her through.
Of course making such mistakes when you are significantly superior to the opposition is different to making mistakes when you are not and whether she will be able to handle a step up in class, must be in doubt - unless she manages to polish up her jumping…
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