Daily write-up - Jan 16th

Amazingly, Newbury has survived the frost and they put on a fair card this afternoon…

I really thought it was sure to be abandoned, with temperatures dropping well below freezing – but it just shows what they can do nowadays – if they want to…

A couple of weeks ago, meetings were taking place when they looked as if they would be washed away: now they are running on ground that should by rights, be frozen solid.

I dare say the going with be on the crusty side of soft – but so long as it is safe, I have no problem with that ;)

Most of the card is for viewing only - with some interesting novice races and a potentially informative hunter chase. However, the handicap chase at 2:25 is the exception….

An absolutely cracking race – it is difficult to rule out any of the runners with confidence, but I’m hoping we might have some success with a split stake bet….

2:25

When I can’t see much between the runners in a particular race, I invariably gravitate towards the outsiders.

It makes sense really – if you think almost anything can win a race, you may as well side with one at a decent price !

In this particular occasion, I’ve decided to side with 2 at decent prices: Barlow and Iona Days.

Barlow is probably the most interesting – and the one of the pair that I fancy slightly more.

He is an unexposed 6 year old – and today will only be his seventh run under rules (though he has competed in 3 PTP races).

He ran 3 times over hurdles last season: wining his maiden and then run a very good race in a strong handicap at Cheltenham at the end of the season.

After a pipe opener over hurdles in October, he made his chasing debut in a hot novice chase at Kempton in November.

He was ultimately pulled up in that race after a shocking blunder at the third last. However, up to that point, he was more than holding his own with 3 chasers all rated in the 130s…

As if to prove he had been a little unlucky that time, on his next outing Barlow ran a fine third to Godsmejudge at Folkestone.

He travelled like the best horse in the race that day and only gave best to Godsmejudge between the final 2 fences.

The subsequent performance of that one in the Classic Chase at Warwick on Saturday, suggests that Barlow had again run to a 130+ rating.

If that is the case, then he is well handicapped today. He also has plenty of scope for progression.

My biggest concerns with him are his relative inexperience in a such competitive race – and his stamina…

He appeared not to quite get home last time and although he is dropping back in trip by a furlong today, he stamina remains a nagging doubt.

That said, Newbury is a flat track – and a relatively easy 3 miles. So if he is going to get the trip anywhere, it is likely to be here…

The other one I want on side, is Iona Days.

He is more exposed than Barlow – but still looks to be progressing to me…

He ran a fair race on his comeback at Newbury, 6 weeks ago.

He travelled nicely in that race, but ultimately weakened and finished 21 lengths behind the winner Sizing Santiago.

He met Sizing Santiago on his next run at Kempton over Christmas.

On the book, the 6lb turned around in the weights should not have been sufficient for Iona Days to turn the tables on his rival – but he did. That suggests to me that he is still progressing…

Again, he travelled well in that race – but was ultimately no match for the talented but enigmatic, (and appropriately named !) Mister Hyde. 

However, that form looks very strong to me…

In addition to Sizing Santiago (who has been in very good form), Politeo was back in fourth (and on a line through him, Iona Days holds Loc Ba) and Brackloon High was fifth (he subsequently won a decent race at Kempton on Saturday).

Iona Days has the kind of profile and connections that mean he is likely to be over-looked. This is likely to mean that he will start at a bigger price than I believe his form deserves…

Of the others, I respect the chances of Monkerty Tunkerty – but I think he is beatable.

I also respect the chance of Mountainous, but he is far too short a price, bearing in mind the competitive nature of the race and his inexperience.

I’m not getting particularly strong vibes for either of the Henderson horses – whilst Fighting Flynn also looks opposable.

2 others of interest are Allthekingshorses and Alderluck.

The former has a definite chance on his hurdle form of last season – but his jumping hasn’t been good enough this season for me to consider him.
Whilst Alderluck could be the potential fly in the ointment.

He was very heavily backed for an amateurs race at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham in November – but ran most disappointingly…

He has been given 2 months to recover from that run and if connections have sorted out whatever was bothering him – and he runs as well as was apparently expected that day – he could be a danger to everything…

On balance though, I am happy that the 2 we are with, have reasonable chances at decent prices, in what is a very tough race !!

0.5pt win Barlow 12/1

0.25pt win Iona Days 18/1

Here’s hoping for a good day ahead !

TVB.