Daily write-up - Jan 13th

The abandonment of Fakenham, has left us with just the 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Kelso in Scotland and Navan in Ireland…

The Kelso meeting is very low grade and there is nothing that holds any appeal.

Navan on the other hand, host quite an interesting meeting and I’ve managed to find us a couple of tips there…

12:45

I’ve got to be honest, I really don’t get the betting for this particular race…

I can only assume it is based on the official ratings of the 3 runners – because based on other factors, it simply doesn’t make sense !!

On official ratings, Hisaabaat has got 6lb to find with his 2 rivals, so I guess a price of 6/1 about him winning is just about understandable.

He is also a little more exposed that the other 2, so doesn’t have the same level of ‘mystique’ about him…

However, if you take away those factors and look purely at the form book, I reckon he should be much closer to the other 2 in the betting – and arguably even favourite…

Last season, he was one of the top juvenile hurdlers; finishing second in the Triumph hurdle at the Cheltenham festival and wining the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Punchestown festival.

He was given a rating of 143 for those performances – but I can’t see why that is…

The winner of the Triumph, Countrywide Flame, has a rating of 158; Grumeti, who finished third in the race, has a rating of 153; Dodging Bullets, who finished fourth, has a rating of 156.

Based on their ratings, Hisaabaat should be rated in the mid 150s. If that were the case, he would presumably be odds on today !

It is true to say that Hisaabaat has been a little disappointing in his 3 runs since his Punchestown win.
However, they came at Auteuil, in their grade 1 juvenile hurdle, which was at the end of a long season for Hisaabaat; a pipe opener on the flat at the Curragh (where he actually ran pretty well) and a 4 year old hurdle at Navan, where he was attempting to give almost a stone to the potentially top class Jezki and Un Beu Matin.

In truth, the last run was a little disappointing – not that he was beaten, but the way he backed out of the race.

Still, Dermot Weld has given him plenty of time to recover from that race, and if he returns today in top form, I think he will take the world of beating…

Cause of causes has got his rating of 149 through some tremendous performance in big field handicaps. Today will provide a completely different test for him.

Midnight Game on the other hand, has looked better in small fields – though I feel he has a fair bit to prove to justify his rating of 149.

One potential concern with the race, is that all 3 runners like to be held up – so pace could be a real issue.

The race might ultimately be won by jockey tactics – but if it is going to turn into a lottery, then I would rather be on the outsider than one of the favourites !

My guess is that Midnight Game will be forced to make the running – but hopefully Andy Lynch won’t let Hisaabaat get too far our of his ground.

If that is the case, then I would be hopeful that he can quicken up past his rivals in the final couple of furlongs…

0.5pt win Hisaabaat 6/1

3:15

My first impression was that this looked a very tricky race – but on examining in a little more closely, I’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t either Harpsy Cord or In Great Form…

I have a slight preference for the latter – so at nearly double the price of the former, he simply had to be the tip…

Last time out, In Great Form was sent off a very well backed third favourite for the hugely valuable Paddy Power chase.

He ran really well in the race to finish fifth. He never really looked like winning – but it was still a commendable effort for a relatively inexperienced horse is such a competitive chase.

He drops back in trip by half a mile for today contest – and it is debatable whether that is a good thing. That said, with stamina likely to be at a premium in the very heavy ground, you will certainly want a horse capable of staying the distance.

The trip certainly won’t be an issue for Harpsy Cord…

He was a very unlucky loser at Limerick over the Christmas period, when he fell at the final fence, with the race in safe keeping.

However, he has been raised 3lb for that run – and is likely to be over-bet on the back of it. You can never be totally sure how a horse will react to a fall – and whilst I suspect he will be fine, I would struggle to take very short odds on him today.

On balance then I think In Great From represents the value in the race.

There is little doubt that it will be run at a very solid pace and if he can keep tabs on the leaders, then I would be optimistic that his stamina will come into play up the home straight.

0.5pt win In Great Form 6/1

Elsewhere on the card, I could see Another Challenge running a very big race in the novice hurdle at 1:15.

Whilst I did toy with putting up Spring Heeled – EW – in the novice chase at 2:45…

He looks to me like an EW bet to nothing – the trouble is, I would be quite surprised if he were good enough to win – and there is always a danger of non completion in novice chases.

Obviously that could work in our favour ! – but with ‘normal’ TVB luck, I wouldn’t be betting on that happening !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.