Tuesday 8 January 2013

Review of the day

Nothing much to get excited about this afternoon with neither of today’s tips setting the world on fire…

Jack the Gent ran a fair enough race to finish fourth.
He attempted to make all – and jumped really well - but hadn’t got the pace to be competitive over the 2 mile trip.
He will be of more interest when up tackling more of a stamina test.

Ruby Crown was last of the finishers in the following contest – though in fairness, she ran a bit better than that placing implies.
In fact, she looked to be going as well as anything, leaving the back straight – but she couldn’t muster the pace required to mount a serious challenge up the home straight.
She was already beaten when interfered with by a faller at the third last hurdle.
She will drop again in the handicap for this run and doubtless retains sufficient ability to win a race – though the market is likely to tell us when that will happen…

Talking of which: the market was very keen on the chances of Mauricetheathlete this afternoon – and as is so often the case, it was absolutely spot on…
As I said this morning, I might well have been interested in the horse at the 12/1 on offer last night – but I couldn’t summon up the same enthusiasm for the 7/1 this morning…
Well, I should have done, as that looked very generous compared to the 7/2 starting price !

It really is in danger of getting a little silly…
Mauricetheathlete was 12/1 across the boards last night – and Ruby Crown was a similar price for her race… 
This morning, Maurice is 7/1 – and Ruby Crown 20/1.
At the off on Betfair, Maurice was slightly shorter than 7/2 – whilst Ruby was 50…
The end result is that Maurice wins – and Ruby comes last.
In so many races nowadays it seems that you don’t really need to study the form – you just have to watch the market (and then be prepared to take massively under the odds !).
I guess that is always going to be a danger when prize money is so poor and connections can make significantly more by backing a horse.

Anyway, the answer is to find the horses that are going to be backed - and get on them before the price crash materialises !!

Elsewhere, the other mentions didn’t do fare quite so well:
Hollow Heartbeat will never win anything until he learns to jump properly (though his performance didn’t come as a great surprise as he wasn’t strong in the market).
Shangani was very strong in the market at Chepstow, and whilst he travelled very well, he found little up the home straight.
Maybe Chepstow’s heavy ground was a bit too much for him…
Finally, although Ballymurry finished last in the opener, he ran a really eye-catching race.
He looks every inch a chaser and he will definitely be of interest when his attentions are switched to the bigger obstacles.

TVB.

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