Daily write-up - Jan 17th

Apparently there were no significant issues with the weather in Somerset and the meeting at Wincanton takes place as planned.

It is joined by a very decent fixture from Thurles, in Tipperary – and an AW ‘bumpers for jumpers’ card, at Lingfield

I had a number of possible tips for today – but most of them were marginal calls and I’ve ultimately decided on just the one.

Let’s hope I’ve made the right call !

Wincanton 2:50

Just occasionally, the subtle signs make such a racket, they can’t really be considered subtle…!

Etxalar is a case in point, today at Wincanton…

Not only has he been sent on a near 860 mile round trip from his stable in Perth – he is making the journey alone.

Further more, his jockey, Peter Buchanan, is making roughly the same journey, for just the one ride…

With the price of diesel, if they don’t take some price money home, it is going to have been a very expensive trip for them…!

Not that I would ever back a horse simply because of the subtle signs – but they do help.

A case for Etxalar, can also be made from the form book.

Once rated as high as 128 (and competitive off that mark) Etxalar has now fallen to a mark of 106.

Ofcourse, such a fall is invariably caused by a loss of form – and that has been the case with Etxalar. However, there have been signs in his last 2 runs, that things are starting to come back together for him.

On his penultimate outing at Haydock, he finished a creditable sixth behind Monsieur Cadou. He was still in with a chance jumping the second last that day, and only weakened after jumping the final flight.

Pettifour and Dusky Bob finished just in front of him that day: however I think both will struggle to beat him today – particularly the latter, who is 7lb worse off at the weights.

In his most recent outing, Etxalar again shaped with promise in a decent race at Mussleburgh.

He got slightly outpaced at a crucial stage of that race, but was staying on again at the finish. Todays extra 3 furlongs, should be in his favour.

Of his opponents, Chartreux is the one I fear most. He ran very well last time out behind Handy Andy, and could also still be improving.

However, todays marathon trip is an unknown – and he is plenty short enough in the betting…

I also respect the chance of afore mentioned Pettifour. He was a class act over hurdles and is gradually getting things together over fences. He ran really well last time out in the Sussex national – though he did have a hard race that day and it was only 11 days ago.

Whatever, I think the Etxalar will run his race today –and even if those 2 do perform to their optimum, he will still be hard to keep out of the frame.
Therefore, I have decided (rather unusually for me !) to go each-way on the selection – though I am very hopeful that he will be good enough to pick up the main prize.

0.5pt EW Etxalar 12/1 

I was hoping that I might be able to find another tip in the preceding race – but I couldn’t…

The problem is, I think Definity will win, if he is straight – but we have no way of knowing whether this will be the case (though I suspect the market will provide some clues !).

If he isn’t straight, then Fine Parchment will take some stopping off the same mark as the one he was agonisingly beaten off at Taunton.

Ballyalia Man is also of some interest – whilst I wouldn’t rule out a big run from Andreo Bambeleo. He was eye-catching last time at Haydock and if he gets the trip, I could see him going close.

Thurles put on a really good card, the high-light of which, is the group 2 Kinloch Brae chase…

It is a race that I quite wanted to tip in – and I did toy with tipping either Joncol or Rathlin, as I think that a case of sorts can be made for both…

Joncol is a dual grade 1 wining chaser, who was once rated 163. Receiving weight from most of his rivals, it would not surprise me if he were to bounce back to form today.

However, there is also a concern that he is in terminal decline – plus the 2m4f trip would be a bare minimum for him.

I’d love to see him win – but I suspect he will be running on late to claim a place.

Rathlin is a different sort of animal – and he will have no issues with todays trip.

However, the question with him, is whether he is good enough to win at this level.

Davy Russell appears not to think so – as he has deserted him for Roi Du Mee.

I suspect that Rathlin will give a bold sight up front for a good part of the race – but I am not so sure that he will still be there when it matters…

As for the winner of the race: if he stays the trip, Days Hotel will take the beating.

Finally, in the mares chase at 2:40, I was very tempted to tip Cnoc Seoda – each way…

And that was the real issue with the bet. A little like Spring Heeled on Sunday, I would expect her to run well – and be placed – but I really don’t think she will beat Tarla…

The form book says she would have gone close last time out (when they both fell at the final fence !) and the form book is right – but I have little doubt that Tarla is the better animal.

In fact, I think Tarla is potentially a high class animal – and I could easily see her making up into a very useful chaser indeed (something like the Ryanair chase wouldn’t be beyond her abilities – on suitable ground).

Avondhu Lady is another horse I like – and if you can find a bookmaker who will take it, a tricast of Tarla, Cnoc Seoda and Avondhu Lady might be the bet – though it would never be an official tip !!

Here’s to a good day ahead !

TVB.