Rather surprisingly, they manage to race at Plumpton today – though looking out of my window, I suspect we should make the most of it, as I foresee a few barren days ahead…
I’ve got one tip – and some thoughts on a race that I nearly tipped in !
Let’s hope we can get the week of to a decent start….
3:40
Racing is a funny old game…
The final race at Cheltenham’s new years day fixture, just over 12 months ago, was a bumper…
It was won by a horse called The New One, who was following up a debut victory at Warwick, 6 weeks earlier…
Just 4 lengths behind him in third place that day, was Virginia Ash.
He was making his racecourse debut – and whilst comfortably beaten by The New One, it was a first run, that promised much…
On the journey home, doubtless both sets of connections dreamt about what the future might hold for 2 equally promising horses…
Roll on 12 months…
On Saturday, The New One took apart a decent field in winning the feature Grade 2 novice hurdle at Warwick. His pre-race rating was 143 – his post race rating will doubtless be in the 150s. As a result of that performance, he has been made favourite for the Neptune novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival…
2 days later, Virginia Ash gets to run in a class 4 hurdle at Plumpton on a Monday afternoon.
He has a mark of 103 – and nothing in his hurdling form entitles him to be rated a pound higher than that.
Rarely can 2 apparently similar horses, have charted such vastly different paths in such a short period of time.
And yet, initially at least, it didn’t look as if that would be the case.
Virginia Ash won on his second outing – and then contested the bumper at the Cheltenham festival. He was well beaten there, but there was little disgrace in that.
His final outing of the season was in a bumper at the Fairyhouse Easter festival. He finished 6th of 19 in that – which again was a reasonably meritorious performance.
His final outing of the season was in a bumper at the Fairyhouse Easter festival. He finished 6th of 19 in that – which again was a reasonably meritorious performance.
However, this season, the wheels have apparently come off and he has been unsighted in 3 novice hurdles.
First time out, he was quite well fancied at Wincanton, but jumped with no fluency and was soon struggling.
On his second outing at Exeter, he jumped better, but seemed to lack the pace required to lie up. In fairness, that was a decent contest, so there was little shame in finishing fifth.
His most recent outing saw a change in tactics and he was allowed to race more prominently.
This is often a tactic employed by connections who want to get their charges a good handicap mark. If the horse races prominently and then is allowed to weaken, there can be little doubt that it has run it’s best – and so the handicapper has to judge it on it’s finishing position. If the horse is never put in the race, the handicapper tends to be a little more suspicious !
Anyway, Virginia Ash raced prominently – and jumped much better than he had done previously – but he was ultimately well beaten.
The handicapper seems to have used that run to give him a mark…
And who knows, that mark might be absolutely right. The horse may have very limited ability and may spend the next few years trundling round small tracks in low grade races – but that didn’t appear likely to be the case 12 months ago…
If Virginia Ash is ever going to bounce back to form, it is likely to be today…
Based on his run in the Cheltenham bumper, if The New One was running in this race today, he would be carrying around 11st12lb. I do not exaggerate when I say that in that scenario, I don’t think the bookies would be prepared to price up the race !
There is little doubt in my mind, that connections will be having a real go today. The application of cheek pieces for the first time is a definite statement of intent.
There is a slight danger that even if Virginia Ash does show massive improvement, he still might not be good enough to cope with the even more unexposed Tidal Dance - but that is a chance we will just have to take.
Similarly, there is a possibility that neither of them will fulfil their potential and one of the more exposed runners will take advantage.
So, in short, he is no good thing…
However, if he does manage to recapture the form he showed last January – then I think he will take the world of beating – and 11/2 will look a very good price indeed…
0.5pt win Virginia Ash 11/2
The other race that I was interested in on the Plumpton card, was the proceeding 2m4f chase…
I was initially drawn to Simply Wings, on the back of an impressive win in a novice chase at Towcester and a fair run when a beaten favourite at Cheltenham.
He was 11/2 yesterday evening, which seemed a reasonable price – so I was certainly considering him as a tip.
However, the more I looked at his form, the more concerned I became.
His win at Towcester was visually impressive – but I’m not sure he beat anything. Similarly, he appeared to run well at Cheltenham, but everything from that race that has subsequently run, has been beaten.
In summary, his form looks questionable.
The other issue I have with him (and this supports the first point), is that he has come up short in handicaps off this mark in the past. The suggestion therefore, is that this mark represents the ceiling of his current ability.
Time will tell I guess…
With him out of the race, I see Midnight Sail as the most likely winner – with No No Bingo a possible danger. Unfortunately, those 2 are first and second favourite – so there is no obvious angle…
Worse still, I couldn’t completely write off Firebird Flyer or Delganny Gunner, so it had to be a no bet race…
If by any chance, Midnight Sail drifted to around 4/1, then I would be interested (3/1 seems about right for him).
Here’s hoping for a good day ahead…
TVB.
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