The meeting at Naas has been lost to the weather – but it looks as if there will be racing at Exeter (though I will actually believe it when I see it !).
Assuming racing does take place in Devon, the going will be on the desperate side of heavy – there won’t be many finishers today, that’s for sure !!
I’ve chosen to tip in two races this afternoon – utilising the saver option in one of them !
I think both are good bets – far better than their odds imply – though of course, that might ultimately count for nothing…
Fingers crossed at least one of them comes good…
Onto the rationale for the tips then…
3:00
Kim Bailey reckons that Harry Topper is the best horse he has trained since Master Oats… No surprise he is 5/4 favourite for this then !
In fairness, he does look a very talented horse – but how he won last time out, I’ve no idea…
He looked well beaten approaching the last at Newbury, but then powered up the run in to register a highly unlikely victory.
It says much for his ability hat he was able to do so – but the bare form isn’t that strong…
Of course, he has scope for improvement – but he will need to improve to win today – and I really can’t seem him being bottomed on today’s desperate ground…
In contrast, I don’t think the connections of Pealysteps will be that bothered about the future…
He might be making his seasonal debut – but I expect him to be fully fit and raring to go.
I also expect him to be able to handle the conditions – regardless of how bad they are…
In truth, they can’t be any worse than the conditions in which he made his seasonal debut last campaign…
That was in the Tommy Whittle chase at Haydock – and I don’t honestly think I’ve ever seen racing on worse ground…
It didn’t make a jot of difference to Pearlysteps however – and he was in the process of running a mighty race against Cannington Brook, to whom he was conceding the best part of a stone…
Simply, that form is good enough to win today’s race…
Better still however, Pearlysteps gets weight from all of his rivals. The official handicapper says he is just one pound off being the best handicapped horse in the race – so what he was doing at 16/1 this morning, I really don’t know !
Actually, I do know – it is all about ‘potential’: Pearlysteps doesn’t have a lot of that – and a few of his rivals do…
Generally, I am a respecter of potential – but on desperate ground in the middle of February, there is a lot to be said for proven form…
I suspect that Bensalem and Cappa Bleu will come on for the run - which leaves the other 2 horses with potential, Highland Lodge and Hawkes Point, as likely bigger dangers…
On balance however, I am more than happy with a bet on Pearlysteps – in the hope that connections of Harry Topper have half an eye on the future ;)
0.5pt win Pearlysteps 16/1
3:35
I’m sure a few of you are wondering why I haven’t tipped Rouge et Blanc for this, when I was so keen on him just a few days ago…
Well, there are 3 reasons: firstly, he is racing off a 7lb higher mark (because of the penalty he incurred when wining at Huntingdon); secondly, this is a much tougher race (class 3 against class 4 – and ‘deeper’ as well); and thirdly, he is a shorter price than he was a few days ago…
Hopefully, that explains that then !!
Of course that is not to say that Rouge et Blanc, can’t win – it is just to say that his chances are nowhere near as good (and that is ignoring the fact he might not have got over Thursday race).
Instead, I am opting for Golden Chieftain as the main bet…
He has been contesting much better races than today’s – and actually finished a hugely creditable third in the big 2m5f handicap chase at Cheltenham’s December meeting.
That race took place in desperate conditions – and his performance was even more meritorious because he tried to take half the fences with him !
If he can brush up his jumping, he has to go close today…
I assume that is why blinkers have been applied – to make him concentrate better.
I could be a little wary of blinkers being applied - particularly in heavy ground, as they tend to make a horse keener.
However, I don’t think Golden Chieftain lacks stamina, so he should be able to get however if they do light him up a little.
The other horse I want on board, is Mr Gardner…
I don’t think he looks as solid as Golden Chieftain – but there is a chance that he is a handicap blot !
On his penultimate outing, he was sent off a 6/1 shot for the Grade 2 Jewson chase at the Cheltenham festival. Today, he gets to run off a mark of 133 – plainly that is just silly !
However, the reason for it, is that his penultimate outing took place almost 2 years ago…
That said, Mr Gardner ran really well on his comeback run, at Wincanton a month ago.
The big question is whether that run will have brought him on – or set him back…
Of course, we wont know the answer to that question until it is too late.
My feeling is that he won’t be given an unduly hard race second time back – but I might be wrong.
At the odds available, I think he warrants a saver.
At the odds available, I think he warrants a saver.
0.5pt win Golden Chieftain 8/1
0.25pt win Mr Gardner 11/1
The other race on the card, worthy of a quick mention, is the novice hurdle at 2:30…
This sees a match between 2 of the seasons leading novices: Puffin Billy and Melodic Rendezvous…
Both of been really impressive so far this season – but on the prevailing heavy ground, I expect to see the ultra tough Melodic Rendezvous come out on top.
Very much a race to watch and savour though…
Here’s hoping for a great afternoon ahead !
TVB.
TVB.
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