Thursday 21 February 2013

Daily write-up - Feb 21st

4 NH meetings today, at Huntingdon, Sedgefield and Ayr in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland…

When I looked at the declarations yesterday, I felt there were 3 or 4 potential tips. However, at the prices available this morning, only one of them has materialised into an actual tip…

Furthermore, it’s a shame that I am no longer issuing earlybird tips, as some of you would be on Tim the Chair at twice the price he was available this morning !
Paddy Power opened up with him at 12/1 last night – which now looks like a rick of the highest order.
I’d set myself as happy to take 6/1 or greater on him – and that is roughly what we’ve got, so I’m happy enough with that (even if I would obviously have been lot happier with double those odds!).

Anyway, the rationale for today’s tip – plus a few words on one or two other half fancies…


Sedgefield 3:10


Tim the Chair really caught my eye on his most recent run at Bangor, just under a fortnight ago…
That was the race in which I tipped Double Dizzy – but it was Tim the Chair who kept on catching my eye, in-running.
He travelled really well on the heals of the leaders and looked sure to be involved in the finish, until his stamina gave out in the final half mile of the race.
I find it interesting to read that spotlight in the RP feels that ‘the cheekpieces made no difference last time’, as I think they made the world of difference…
The official handicapper wasn’t too impressed either, as he has dropped Tim the Chair 3lb, putting him back on the mark from which he won, at Uttoxeter last May.
So, over a trip 3 furlongs shorter than last time, with the cheek-pieces retained, on ground that will suit him well – and clearly in decent form, Tim the Chair should be a very good bet…
However, with a record as patchy as his, it is impossible not to have some reservations about him…
Since he won his first race under rules, almost exactly 2 years ago, he has run 9 times. 4 of those runs have been commendable (if you include his last run, which I do !); 1 has been OK (his penultimate run) – but the other 4 have been shockers…
Worse than that, they have been shockers when he has been relatively well fancied (his SP has been less than 10/1) on each occasion.
Consequently he is not a horse for maximum faith - even though, he almost certainly has the ability to win today..
When faced with a profile like his, I am normally able to offer a theory on the variance in his performance – but I have to say that he has got me stumped. I can see no pattern in his form…
Consequently, we are taking a bit of a risk with him today.
However, as I said earlier, he has a lot going for him; he is also a reasonable price – and I’ve not gone mad with the staking !
Fingers crossed that he puts in a decent run for us today.

0.5pt win Tim the Chair 13/2


Later on the Sedgefield card, I was sorely tempted to tip Reasonable Force in the handicap chase at 4:40…
I pointed him out earlier in the season, on the second of his runs at Catterick.
It seemed odd that connections were dropping him back to 2 miles that day, when he has always looked as if he needed a trip.
He was never put into the race that day (quite blatantly) – and it was a similar story last time out…
Well, those tactics seem to have worked, as the handicapper has dropped him 8lb across the 2 runs (which seems very lenient).
He is now on a mark off 100 which means he can just sneak into this class 5, 0-100 race, with top weight…
He was installed at 3/1, which seems tight – but if he is backed, I would feel pretty confident that he will win.
He could easily have a stone in hand of his mark – and back over a suitable trip, he could take advantage of that fact.
Certainly if he is ridden prominently (which was how he ran over hurdles) I would expect him to run a very big race today.


Over at Ayr, I was half tempted by Kudu Country in the handicap chase at 4:50…
We were on him last time out, when he was backed into near favouritism for a stronger race than this at Sandown.
However, he hit the first fence that day, which seemed to knock his confidence and he was eventually pulled up.
If we consider that to have just been a blip, then he is clearly of interest today.
However, he has been put in at 9/4 – and the opposition includes Kealigolane, who was the winner of a decent novice chase at Carlisle last time out.
I would expect Kudu Country to be able to pick Kealigolane off close home – but there is little margin at those kind of prices…


Over at Huntingdon, Act of Kalanisi is of some interest, at the prices, in the novice chase at 3:00…
However, he is coming here on the back of two non completions, so there is always the possibility that getting him round safely will be the priority…

In the mares novice hurdle at 4:00, I would be most interested in Katnaping…
She caught my eye on her debut at Doncaster, looking likely to go very close, but then weakened in the closing stages. If that run has brought her on, she could provide a little bit of value at around 10/1.


Finally, at Clonmel…
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Anonis shake up Unika La Reconce in the novice hurdle at 2:55; whilst I would expect Beeverstown to put up a bold show in handicap chase at 4:25 (though whether he is good enough to come home in front, is a different matter).
Finally, Sandeel Bay has his second run over fences in the beginners chase at 4:55.
It might take an act of faith to support him – but he ran with some promise on his seasonal debut, when I gave him a favourable mention.
I’ll certainly be keeping a close eye on him again today ;)


Here’s hoping for a good day ahead !

TVB.

No comments:

Post a Comment