There are 3 NH meetings today: at Doncaster, Ludlow and Punchestown.
All 3 put on reasonable enough cards – but I’m only interested in two races…
For whatever reason, February has been a struggle so far…
I feel that I’ve been tipping over-priced horses, with a chance of winning their races, but things just haven’t clicked.
Today, I think I’ve found a couple of horses with very good chances of winning – and both are at decent prices.
Of course, neither might win today – but that won’t stop them from being two of the best tips that I’ve put up this month.
As you might be able to tell, I’m quite hopeful of a decent day !
Ludlow 3:15
Early in January, a seemingly innocuous chase was run at Leicester…
I tipped Jack the Gent in the race and he ran creditably to finish fourth.
I was happy enough with his performance that day – but what I didn’t realise at the time, was just how hot a race it was…
Since that day, the winner, Arthurs Pass, has come out and won again (beating subsequent winner, Sawpit Supreme). He is now rated 15lb higher than he was at Leicester.
Runner up, Prince of Dreams, has come out and won. He is now rated 10lb higher than he was that day.
Third placed Rouge et Blanc, has come out and won twice. He is now rated 23lb higher.
Fourth placed Jack the Gent has come out and finished second twice. He is now rated 5lb higher than he was that day…
The fifth placed horse in that race, was To Live…
He finished just behind Jack the Gent – but his finishing position does not flatter him.
He was poised to make his challenge, when he slipped on landing after jumping the fourth last, thereby losing any chance in the race.
Without that mistake, he would have finished at least one place better – maybe in the placing themselves.
If that had been the case, then based on the animals who surrounded him it would be safe to assume that To Live has at least 10lb in hand of today’s mark…
And looking at his form and his profile, that looks quite possible.
He has only run 4 times in this country – and only twice over fences. He certainly has plenty of scope for improvement.
He is a winner over hurdles on soft, in his native France, so the ground shouldn’t pose any problems today…
Simply, if he jumps round safely today, he should go very close indeed…
Aside from the fences, I can see two main dangers in the race:
Favourite, Bobby Dove, is a young progressive horse, who won well last time out (beating the horse who subsequently beat Jack the Gent). He still looks very well handicapped off a mark of 87.
Darceys Dancer also looks very well handicapped off a mark more than 30lb lower when at his peak. He has been way out of form lately, but if he did stage a revival today, he would be difficult to beat.
On balance however, I am happy to stick with our tried and tested form line – and hope that To Live can provide a welcome boost for the month.
1pt win To Live 11/2
Doncaster 2:50
There is a slight chance that we are getting on Auroras Encore a race too early today – but I think I saw enough in his last run, for that not to be the case…
The thing about Auroras Encore, is that he is a spring time horse. He prefers the brighter days, shorter nights, warmer temperatures – and maybe most importantly (!), quicker ground.
When he gets those conditions, he is a very good horse – as he showed a couple of times, at the back end of last season.
On the first of those occasions, he was a very comfortable winner of a class 2 chase at Haydock and he followed that up by running second in the Scottish Grand National.
That honourable defeat, saw his handicap mark rise to 150. However, the great thing about horses like Auroras Encore, is that they can then be campaigned on unsuitably soft ground. That does them little harm – and their handicap gradually reduces.
That is precisely what has happened with Auroras Encore and he gets to run off a mark of 137 today. That is just 3lb higher than the mark he won from at Haydock – and 4lb lower than his mark when running in the Scottish Grand National.
In short, he is handicapped to just about win today…
Of course, that on it’s own wouldn’t be sufficient. We also need the right ground conditions – and preferably a few signs that he is running back into form.
Well, the official ground description today, is good to soft (good in places). I would prefer it to be good all over – but I’m just about happy with that.
In terms of him running in to form: his latest run was in the Betfred Classic chase at Warwick last month. Bearing in mind Auroras preferred conditions, that race was never going to be ideal for him, as it was run on very soft ground.
However, he ran really well in it, only weakening out of contention half way down the back straight on the final circuit.
Based on that run, I believe Auroras is ready to strike soon. The ground, is hopefully quick enough for him today; he is on a handicap mark form which he can win – and the track should be absolutely fine for him.
Of course, it is quite a competitive race – and I would be a little fearful of course specialist Corkage, in particular.
However, the fact is that Auroras Encore is capable of better form than virtually all of todays rivals – and conditions should be just about right for him to produce it.
Once again, I am optimistic of a result !
0.75pt win Auroras Encore 17/2
Here’s hoping for a memorable afternoon (preferably for the right reasons !).
TVB.
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