Daily write-up - Feb 16th

Four NH meetings today, at Haydock, Ascot, Wincanton and Gowran Park.

The action from the first 2 named is absolutely top class – and I limited most of my study and all of my tipping to those cards.
When I first looked at the racing, I actually thought I would have even more tips today – but I’ve reigned back a little and limited myself to 4 races…

As always, I think I’ve found horses with a chance, at odds which under-state their chances. Whether any of them are good enough to win – time alone will tell…

Onto the rationale then – starting at Haydock…

2:55

This is a hell of a race !

If you asked me to pick the most likely winner, I’d go for Well Refreshed.

However, he has been winning at class 3 and steps up to class 1 today. He might be up to the job – but 6/1 seems quite a short price to find out…

The key to todays race looks to be the Welsh Grand National, which was run on the first Saturday in January.
The race was won in tremendous style, by Monbeg Dude, who ran down Teaforthree in the shadows of the post.

Both have been raised for their efforts that day: Monbeg Dude by 10lb and Teaforthree by 7lb. Of the two, I would favour the former – who still has untapped potential – and room for improvement in his jumping…

However, back in third that day, was Triggerman…

Entering the home straight, he was part of a break away trio. He looked to be travelling as well as anything at that point – and only gave best approaching the final fence…

Somewhat surprisingly, the handicapper has chosen to drop him 2lb for that run, meaning that he is 12lb better off with Monbeg Dude (and 9lb better off with Teaforthree). That just doesn’t look right to me…

Today’s race is over 2f shorter – and on a flatter track. Both of these factors should play to the favour of Triggerman.

Simply, at 14/1, he looks overpriced…

All this said, this is not a 3 horse race !
As I mentioned, I would actually have Well Refreshed as the most likely winner of the race – and if you fancy him you have to fancy Rigadin de Beauchene (whom he beat at Lingfield , but who is much better off at the weights today).

However, you can’t beat 7/1 on any of those 4 mentioned horses – which makes it very difficult to see an edge…

Of the others in the race, I think that Giles Cross and Cannington Brook are currently too high in the handicap.

Silver by Nature would be of huge interest, despite top weight, if you knew he was fully fit. However, he has been of the course for more than 600 days, so is likely to need the run.
The other one that could be of interests at a big price, is Mac Aeda…

He caught the eye last time, coming form off the pace in a race over a much shorter trip. He could be interesting, picking off the front runners, if they go too fast up front.

0.25pt EW Triggerman 14/1

4:05

Another really trappy race – but one where I think Yurok has a decent chance, at a fair price…

Yurok first came to my attention on his penultimate run at Wetherby. He got the better of Aland Island that day – much to my amazement…

I had been massively impressed by Aland Island, when he made his fencing debut at Newcastle and thought he was a near certainty for the Wetherby contest.

However, he seemed to be beaten on merit that day, so I looked more closely into Yurok’s form …

As a novice hurdler, Yuroks form stands the closet scrutiny…

First time over hurdles, he beat the now 143 rated Rival Estruval. On his second outing over the smaller obstacles, he spilt the now 150- rated Trustan Times and the now 145 rated Our Mick. Third time out, he was beaten by the enigmatic – but highly talented Battle Group.

On his final outing over hurdles, he was pulled up lame in a grade 1 event at Aintree…

His next appearance on the racecourse was 18 months later, when he ran very promisingly in a 2 mile novice chase at Carlisle, last October. The trip that day was almost certainly too short for him…

His next run was his defeat of Aland Island at Wetherby – which, having taken all of the above into consideration, now doesn’t look that big a shock !

Yurok has been consistently running to a level in 140s – and yet is only rated 134.

More than that, he has potential to go to an even higher level, which makes him very interesting indeed…

Of course all of this, ignores his last time out run at Kelso, where he was disappointing.

However, that was a 3 runner race, over 3 miles, on heavy ground. The winner, Red Rocco, dictated the pace that day – and my inclination is to think the form is unreliable…

There is also the chance that Yurok didn’t stay the 3 mile trip that day, so I am pleased to see him dropped back half a furlong today.

Hopefully there will be a decent pace and Yurok can demonstrate what a well handicapped horse he is !

0.5pt win Yurok 13/2

4:40

I’ve been waiting a couple of months for Florafern to run…

She really caught my eye, when just failing to give our old friend Tweedledrum 23lb at Ascot. Tweedledrum is now rated 20lb higher – so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to deduce that Florafern ran a mighty race that day.

It was also a big field race, with a decent gap back to the third placed horse – so the form really does look strong.

Next time out, Florafern disappointed at Sandown. However that race took place only 2 weeks after her Ascot exertions, so there must be a chance that she hadn’t fully recovered. The race was also run over 2m4f and I think that Florafern needs a 3 mile trip. Something that she gets today…

The other reason why I’m particularly keen on Florafern today, is because I’m not overly afraid of any of her opponents…

The market is headed by Hold on Julio and whilst his mark over hurdle is 13lb lower than his mark over fences, it remains to be seen how lenient it actually is…

Seymour Eric has run up a hatrick in his first three races this season – but they have all been in a much lower grade. Today’s opposition will be far tougher than he is used to.

You can make a case of sorts for most of the others – but nothing particularly compelling.
In short, if Florafern runs to the level of form she did when beaten by Tweedledrum, I think she will take a lot of beating today.

1pt win Florafern 10/1

The Rendlesham hurdle at 2:20 looks very difficult to solve…

A case can be made for Kentford Grey Lady, Trustan Times and Cross Kennon.

However, I couldn’t dismiss Hada Men or Miss Milbourne.

At odds of 25/1, Miss Millbourne has to be of some interest – even if she is likely to find one or two too good…

In the hunter chase that completes the card, I think Nicto De Beauchene could have been under-estimated…

He is still professionally trained and wouldn’t have been far behind these at his peak.

The trip and ground should hold no fears for him – and at a general 14/1, he looks very interesting (he might even have been a tip – if I tipped in Hunter chases !!)

Over to Ascot then…

2:40

If ever a horse divided a (horse racing) nation, it is Vino Griego !!

Some people love him – others have no time for him…

I used to sit formerly in the first camp. However, he then lost a race at Maret Rasen which I was convinced he should have win - and I moved in to the latter camp.

He promptly made me pay for that decision by hacking up in an ultra competitive race on Cheltenham trials day !

I was kind of hoping that people would think that a fluke and that he would be more generously priced today – but alas that has not been the case.

In all honesty, backing him at a relatively short price, off a 10lb higher mark today, is not something I feel totally comfortably with – but that said, if connections have found the key to him then I’m sure his is a much better horse than he is currently rated…

Everyone seems to think that the key to his last time out win, was him being held up.

I suspect that probably helped – but I think the key was the soft ground and the fast pace.

If you look at his form, all of his best runs have been achieved in those circumstances…

And he should get them again today. The ground will certainly be soft – and I think there should also be a good pace.

If that is the case, then today is the day when we will find out how good Vino Griego really is…

If he comes up short, then the one I think might take advantage, is Tatenen.

Formerly a very decent 2 mile novice chaser for Paul Nicholls, he has reinvented himself in recent years, over slightly longer trips, for Richard Rowe…

He won a race over 2m6f at this course last January, off a mark just 1lb lower than he races off today. There are some doubts about him getting the 3 mile trip today – but he showed tremendous battling qualities to win that race and I suspect he won’t be found wanting for stamina – provide he is ridden with a little restraint…

That certainly wasn’t the case last time out, on his seasonal debut in 2m4f chase at the Cheltenham December meeting.

He absolutely tanked into the lead at the top of the hill that day, but maybe not too surprisingly, didn’t get home.

Part of the issue with him, is that he is an exuberant horse – so Andy Thornton has a tricky balancing act to perform.

Hopefully he will be able to hold the right line and get him to run his race (even if it does see Vino Griego cruising past him on the run to the last !)

Of the others in the race, I can see an argument for The Rainbow Hunter based on his course victory back in November…

The placed horses from that day have subsequently franked the form in spectacular style and if that run doesn’t flatter The Rainbow Hunter, you would have to think him still a well handicapped horse.
However, I think the run does flatter him. His jumping that day was near foot perfect – and he got an ideal waiting ride. In contrast, his main opponents either made significant jumping errors – or were ridden too aggressively.

I think he will be lucky to find the race unfolding in such a manner again today…

0.5pt win Vino Griego 5/1 (prior to R4)

0.5pt win Tatenen 8/1 (prior to R4)

 

In the following handicap hurdle, I was half tempted to tip Lord Of House, whom I think may be well suited by the step up in trip.

However, it is a very competitive race and I decided to swerve it.

Instead, I’ll be cheering on our old friend Queens Grove - though she too will have her work cut out to come home first – even with Ruby Walsh on top !!

Despite only 6 runners, the Ascot chase at 3:50, looks an absolute cracker…

I would expect the winner to come from the top 4 in the market – and I remain unconvinced about Finians Rainbow over 2m5f in soft ground…

The trip could also prove the undoing of both Cue Card and Somersby – which leaves Captain Chris as the default selection…

Obviously, I would be pleased if he did win – but I don’t feel sufficiently strongly about him to make him a tip – particularly as you can’t beat a price of 5/2…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.