Daily write-up - Feb 19th

There are 3 NH meetings today, at Taunton, Wetherby and Navan – but they are a pretty uninspiring bunch of fixtures…

I was particularly disappointed by the fixture at Navan, where there are 4 grade 2 events and well over 100K Euro on offer.

There are a few decent performers running – but you really would expect more competition for those kind of prizes…

Maybe transferring the fixture from a Sunday to Tuesday has caused the problem – or maybe it is down to the very heavy ground.

Either way, it’s not a meeting that sets the pulse racing, in the way that I would have hoped…

That said, it is still a fair bit better than either the Wetherby card – or the all hurdle card at Taunton.

I’m rarely a fan of all hurdle cards – and the Taunton one does little to encourage me to change that opinion !

Anyway, enough of the negativity ! We still have a tip – though not the most original one ever ! – and consequently, you need some rationale…

Navan 3:45

This really can’t have come as much of a surprise to many of you…

I’ve already tipped Cootamundra twice this season  - and, all things being equal, I am likely to continue tipping him, every time he runs, until the TVB season ends !

Simply, I believe that he will win a race this season. Probably quite a good one – and probably at a decent price – and I am determined we will be on him when it happens…!

Whether that day will be today, is a different matter. However, I’m not prepared to let him go untipped today because we all know how sods law will react if I do !

I’ve only had a small play on him today – mainly because of the odds. He opened up at 25/1 with B365 last night – and at that price, I might have been prepared to go to war (EW).

However at a best price of 14/1 this morning, there isn’t as much juice, so I’ve reigned back accordingly…

Also, if I’m honest, I don’t; think that today provides the ideal set of circumstances for Cootamundra.

What I think he needs, is 2m4f, in heavy ground, with a fast pace.

He’ll get 2 out of the 3 today: the pace and the ground – but the trip is only 2 miles and that might prove to be his undoing…

Time alone will tell on that score. A lot will depend on how fast Twinlight and Buckers Bridge go off.

I wouldn’t expect them to hang about – but basing a bet on the expected pace in a race, is a risky business…

All that said, if Twinlight and Buckers Bridge do go off very hard, there is a distinct possibility that the race will fall apart – and if that happens, I would expect Cootamundra to have a very good chance of picking up the pieces.

If however, the race is run at a steady pace, and they quicken up with half a mile to run, he may well be caught out, as was the case on his last outing…

If that does happen, then we will just have to wait for another day. It’s a good job that we are all patient sorts, who know that good things do eventual come to those prepared to wait ;)

0.5pt win Cootamundra 14/1

Earlier on the card, our good friend Jadanli runs in the 2m4f Boyne hurdle.

He obviously did us a massive favour last time – but I won’t be expecting a repeat performance today…

He can be backed at 33/1, but that is for a very good reason – he has little chance !
Obviously, he will love the heavy ground, but the trip is too short  - and the opposition too good.

I suspect he is running over hurdles to keep himself fit for a crack at an other big chase.

His mark appears not to have been changed after his Thystes win, and I suspect connections have got the Irish National in mind for him.

We don’t want to let him slip off the radar – but he is definitely one to watch today…

Over at Wetherby, I couldn’t help but notice that Jack the Gent will be trying to right the wrongs from Doncaster, in the 4:25 race…

He clearly has a very good chance of doing so – but is 5lb higher than he was at Doncaster and is priced up at 7/4…

The Doncaster race wasn’t particularly strong – and despite there being just 5 runners today, I’m not sure that this one is any weaker…

He is certainly up to winning – but I couldn’t be interested in him as a tip…

In the finale at Wetherby, Willpower certainly catches the eye…

I can’t recall Mark Johnston having previously had a run in a Bumper (though I may be wrong !) – and it is also Choc Thornton’s only ride of the day.
In short, the subtle signs could be very keen !
However, he doesn’t seem particularly strong in the early betting – and you do have to question why he is taking this route and not running on the flat…

Potentially of more interest, is the well bred Ty’n Y Wern for the up and coming Tony Coyle.

He can be backed at 11/1 and that is far more appealing…

However, if I was going to have one bet at the meeting, it would most likely be Weston Lodge in the novice chase at 2:10.

He has run with promise on both his outings this season and seemed to find the trip a little far last time.

He has been dropped back half a mile today and that could make all the difference…

He was 6/1 early – but is now 4/1, which is tight. That said, we all know by now the power of the market. I suggest that you act as you think appropriate !!

Here’s to a good day ahead !

TVB.