Daily write-up - Feb 6th

The meeting at Down Royal was sunk without trace – but NH racing goes ahead today at both Ludlow and Carlisle.

The Ludlow card in particular, is very decent for a mid week – though watching the prices melt away on my fancies last night, almost brought tears to my eyes !

Virtually every horse I had on my list, was cut in price – and remained shorter this morning.

I therefore had to decide whether they still represented ‘value’ – or if was better off giving them a miss…

I decided that there was still some margin in them all – though I changed the staking on a couple….

You will doubtless have noticed this morning, that I have also changed my approach a little, by tipping 2 horses in 2 of the races…

This is something I’ve done in the past – but I intend to do it more often in the future.

I’ve said in the past, how I see this as a way of minimising ‘luck’ – of more often, poor judgement calls ! – but either way, I think it should result in a smoother P&L.

Certainly, over the last dozen or so selections, the horse I nominated as the main danger has won 4 or 5 times. Even if we can just get to the point where we don’t lose on a race if that happens, it will be an improvement…

Talking of which , O Crotaigh would have been a saver yesterday – if I’d put up Balinroab ! That said, I was still very surprised to see him win at odds of 20/1 – as I thought he would be backed if connections thought he had a chance.

I just hope one or two of you took a little risk with him.

Anyway, the savers today are both on shorter priced runners – but that won’t always be the case…

Basically the main bet will be the horse I fancy most at the prices – and the saver will be the hose I consider the main danger (assuming such a horse exists !!).

On to the rationale for todays tips then, starting at Ludlow…

3:15

Working my way through this race, I had issues with all of the runners, apart from one…

The favourite, Glorious Twelfth hasn’t done a lot wrong – but she hasn’t achieved much either…

She was beaten on her hurdling debut, when she lacked the acceleration to quicken –and although she won last time out, she was 4/9 fav that day, so it didn’t tell us a lot.

At 2/1 today, she looks opposable…

Prima Porta looked potentially interesting, but I have a feeling that she wont relish todays soft ground. Certainly, the combination of the ground and the trip, may prove a little too much for her…

Highland Retreat is another potentially interesting runner – but I can’t help wondering whether she is a ‘bridle’ horse…

She travels very well in her races – but doesn’t seem to find much when asked…

The opposite is true of Mickie – who looks a real tough individual.

She paid the price last time, for trying to keep tabs on The New One at Warwick, but there was no disgrace in defeat to a high class rival in that grade 2 contest and in a handicap today, off a mark of 130, I think she will take a lot of beating.

She has winning form over both course and distance – maybe not too surprising, considering that she is owned by the Ludlow Racing Partnership !
Try as I might, I couldn’t find much in the form of the other runners that suggested they might be in the shake up and I am therefore very hopeful that Mickie will be able to keep trainer Henry Daly’s current run of excellent form going…

0.5pt win Mickie 5/1

3:50

When I first looked at this race, it was our old friend, Valmari, who caught my eye…

She won a novice chase at this course for us, early in January and I reckon she should be competitive off a mark of 124…

The big issue with her – and it nearly proved her undoing that day – is that she is liable to clout a fence or two on the way round.

She has done that in each of her 5 races over fences – and paid the price on 2 occasions.

If she jumps round cleanly today, she will take the beating but if she hits a fence - and against seasoned handicappers the possibility of that much increase – she is likely to pay the price again…

If that is the case – and even if it isn’t – I think Cadoudals, will take the world of beating today…

His form this season might look poor – but it really isn’t as bad as it first appears…

After a pipe opener over hurdles, he ran fourth to Quartz de Thaix at Bangor and fifth to Sona Sasta at Chepstow. Both of those races were over 3miles – which is probably a bit too far for Cadoudalas – and in both races he was still travelling very well at 2m4f (the distance of todays race).

Last time out he was disappointing – but that was in desperate ground at Chepstow. He will need to leave that run behind – but I think he will be able to do that.

Cadoudalas has an interesting piece of form with Cootehill, from his final outing last season.

That was over todays course and distance and on similar ground. Cootehill came out on top that day, by just over a length, However, Cadoudalas made a shocking blunder at the second last – and is 5lb better off.

It is difficult to understand why Cootehill is half the price of Cadoudalas today…

In summary then, a race where I would optimistic of getting a result – ideally via Cadoudals, or failing that, via the saver on Valmari.

0.5pt win Cadoudalas 9/1

0.25pt win Valmari 3/1

In the novice chase at 2:10. I would be quite keen to take on Reginaldinho…

He certainly sets the standard based on 2 recent wins in handicaps – but I don’t think the standard is insurmountable, particularly as he has to give 7lb to all of his rivals…

I think the one most likely to bustle him up is Big News – though I could also be interested in both Red Rouble and Mystic Appeal, at prices…

Finally, at Carlisle…

4:05

The field for this Pertemps qualifier has cut up significantly, which is a shame !
It threatened to be a really interesting race – and one where I felt we had an angle. However, as I write this, 4 of the original field of 10 are now non runners.

That said, it should only result in a R4 of around 25p, so we might be on at least one decent bet ;)

That one is Corrin Wood, who was 11/1 this morning, but is now into 9/2…

I felt that 11/1 was much too big a price – I fact, if I’m honest, Corrin Wood wasn’t going to be my main tip for the race, that was going to be Knockara Beau.

When betting opened last night, Knockara was 8/1 and Corrin 71/ - however, his morning, Knockara was 9/2 and Corrin 11/1 !

As a ‘value bettor’, I didn’t feel I had much choice other than to swap sides !!

The case for Knockara Beau is quite simple.

He won this race 2 years ago off a 3lb higher mark. He has been in excellent form recently and ran an absolute cracker last time out, in the staying hurdle on Cheltenham trials day.

He will love the ground – and the fact he is burdened with 11st10lb will be irrelevant to him as he is a huge horse. Paddy Brennan is at Carlisle for just the one ride and I expect him to try and make all…

He may very well succeed, but if he isn’t quite up to it there are 3 potential improvers who could be able to take advantage: Shuthefrontdoor, Green Flag and Corrin Wood.

Of the 3, I would have a slight preference for Shutthefrontdoor, but he was a 5/2 shot this morning..

Corrin Wood on the other hand, was 11/1.

He was hugely disappointing last time out – but that run was simply too bad to be true (so I am ignoring it !).

He had previously hacked up over 2m4f at this course and prior to that had run a huge race when just getting touched off by the now 145 rated Gevrey Chambertin, at Haydock.

On a line through him Corrin Wood, could easily have 10lb in hand of his handicap mark…

That is backed up by Corrin Wood’s run behind the now 150 rated Coneygree, at Uttoxeter…

I have a slight concern over todays 3m trip – but that said, Corrin Wood has won over that tip in a PTP. Furthermore, he didn’t look like stopping over 2m4f in the Haydock race.
Like I said, I think his run last time out has to be ignored – and in that case, he has a very good chance today.

0.5pt win Corrin Wood 11/1

0.25pt win Knockara Beau 9/2

Here’s hoping for a great afternoon – and a flying start for the new ‘strategy’ !!

TVB.